Kokuyo Camlin Limited. Initiation

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Kokuyo Camlin Limited. Initiation Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) September 7, 2015 CMP: ₹99 Time Horizon – 12 Months Target: ₹135 Key Data (In ₹ Mn.) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Bloomberg Code CAMLN IN Net Sales 4,704 5,439 6,391 7,620 V NSE Code KOKUYOCMLN EBITDA 26 168 304 495 BSE Code 523207 EBITDA Margin 0.6% 3.1% 4.8% 6.5% Sector Cons. Discretionary EPS (₹) (0.8) 0.5 1.1 2.5 A Industry Home & Office Prod. EV/Sales 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 Face Value (₹) 1.0 EV/EBITDA 383.6 59.9 33.1 20.3 L BV per share (₹) 21 P/E (x) (128.1) 198.3 87.4 39.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% Price Performance CY12 CY13 CY14 YTD U 52 Week L/H(₹) 50 / 127 Absolute 54% -28% 76% 67% Market Cap. (₹ mn.) 9,965 Relative 26% -35% 45% 72% E Shareholding Pattern (as on Jun’15) Relative stock performance (Sep’14=100) 205 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 P Promoters 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 170 FII 0.5% 1.5% 2.8% 3.2% I 135 DII 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100 C Bodies Corporate 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% Others 20.3% 20.0% 18.9% 18.6% 65 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 k Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CAMLN Nifty Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg Analyst: Narendra Solanki Anand Rathi Research [email protected] Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) Two of the oldest brands ‘Kokuyo’ & ‘Camlin/Camel’ with unmatched consumer connect, strong brand equity Kokuyo Camlin Limited is over 80 years old company started in 1930s as Dandekar & Co. which got renamed as Camlin during 1941. Over the years, the Company has become synonymous with quality products for schools, offices and niche art markets. The Company has two of the most recognized and endearing brands in the country – CAMEL and CAMLIN. In 2012, Kokuyo S & T Ltd. Japan acquired majority stake in Camlin and rechristened the company as Kokuyo Camlin Limited. Kokuyo is a Japan based company with more than 100 years old history. It is a leading marketer in stationery, institutional furniture and catalogue sales and has presence in many countries in Asia. The vast range of products manufactured and marketed by the Company include inks, colors, writing instruments, technical and drawing instruments, office stationery, markers, fine art, notebooks and scholastic and hobby art materials. During the latest financial year 2015 the company has reported a growth of 15.6% in its revenues at ₹5,439 million as against ₹4,704 million in FY14. The growth was mainly due to increase both volume and realizations of certain products. Its EBITDA margins improved 250 basis points to 3.1% in FY15 at ₹168 million as against 0.6% in FY14 at ₹26 million and PAT margins improved 260 basis points to 0.9% at ₹49 million in FY15. The overall improvement in profitability of the company was due to lower cost of materials owing to product mix, decrease in cost of operation. In 2013, the company has embarked upon an ambitious mission to build up its capacities, capabilities and competencies and had raised funds for construction of state of the art manufacturing plant at Patalganga Industrial Area of MIDC. The construction has already started in January 2015 and management expects this plant to be operational by 2016. Kokuyo (parent) is continuously streamlining its Indian operations and has implemented various systems to improve operational and manufacturing competitiveness of the company. It is now focusing on introducing new and innovative products to the market through its network of 1500 dealers/distributors and 300000 retailers. In past it is has introduced Kokuyo notebooks in the Indian markets with remarkable success. We expect CAMLN to further improve its profitability in years to come and continue to grow its business through its existing product franchise as well as launch of new innovative products from its parent company. We initiate our coverage on Kokuyo Camlin Limited with a BUY rating and a target price of ₹135 per share. 2 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) build over more than 80 years of history came together… History of the Company Period Key Events 1931 Started operations with Horse brand ink powders and tablets, followed by Camel ink. 1946 Dandekar and Company re-christened as Camlin. 1947 Ventured into pain balm, chalks, rubber stamp pads, gums and adhesives. 1962 Entered into art material market with oil, water and poster colors, geometry boxes and oil pastels. 1974 Tarapur factory started manufacturing of wooden pencils. 1982 All- India Camel Color Contest (AICCC) started. 1984 Camlin Fine Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals divisions started with a plant for drug intermediaries & antioxidants at Tarapur. 1987 Got listed on Bombay Stock Exchanges. 1989 Collaboration with Pilot Corp, Japan for manufacturing 0.5mm high polymer leads. 1995 Taloja plant was set up as part of marketing collaboration with Winsor and Newton (UK). 1998 AICCC registered 3 million entries for the contest. 2002 Specially ink group formed for ink development and manufacturing. 2003 Camlin Exam- school stationery brand was launched. 2008 Camlin Alphakids, a 100% subsidiary, opened a pre-school in Mumbai. 2010 Formed Partnership with Hayleys Consumer Products Ltd for distribution of products in Sri Lanka. 2011 Japan's Kokuyo entered into a deal to acquire 50.3% stake in the company for ₹3.6 bn. 2012 Kokuyo S & T Ltd. Japan acquired majority stake in Camlin Ltd. and rechristened the company as Kokuyo Camlin Limited. Kokuyo Camlin starts restructuring its processes. The company initiated a program for building Capacity, Capability and 2014 Competency. 2015 Kokuyo Camlin starts construction of its new integrated manufacturing facility. 3 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) …with extensive product portfolio of over 2500 SKUs that address the wide & varied needs of its three broad segments. CAMLN Business Segment Products Wise School & Education Fine Art & Hobby Materials Office Stationery products products Notebooks Art Materials Gum & Paste Drawing Books Art Pastels Markers & Marker Inks Pencils & Pens Artists Oil Colors Scissors Fountain Pen & Ink Artists Acrylic Colors Staplers Color Pencils Canvas & Brushes Other Office Products Accessories Sketch Pens Painting Medium Plastic/Wax Crayons Water Color pencils Water Colors 3D Glitter, Sparkle Poster Colors Fabrica Coneliner Oil Pastels Hobby Mediums & Geometry Box Brushes, Others Technical Instruments, etc 4 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) Broad segmentation of stationery industry by type and use. Stationery Segmentation by Type Stationery Segmentation by Use Notebook & Paper Writing Instruments School Stationery Office Stationery Computer & Daily use Stationery industry includes a wide range of paper products, writing instruments, computer and daily used stationery like staplers, erasers, binders, punch machine, children stationery and other related items. Global market for Writing and Marking Instruments is projected to reach US$17.5 billion by 2020, driven by product innovations, growing penchant for luxury writing instruments and increasing literacy rates in emerging countries. Asia-Pacific represents the largest and the fastest growing market worldwide with a CAGR of 7% over the analysis period. Growth in the region is led by increased emphasis on education, large base of students and corporates, and growing demand for quality writing gear. 5 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) India stationery segment market size Stationery Industry segment Market size (₹ Bn.) Segment - Products wise market Computer & Daily use Office 24% Stationary, 50 School Notebooks & Stationary, Paper 51% Writing 90 Instruments 25% Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research The Indian stationery industry is very heterogeneous comprising of a wide array of products ranging from pens to printing to notepads to inks to colors and many more. The industry is highly fragmented one, with the unorganized sector constituting almost 85%. The industry is also highly fragmented in terms of regions, with a large number of small units scattered all over the country. In terms of usage, the industry is broadly divided into office stationery and school stationery of which school stationery market is estimated to be around ₹90 billion while office stationery market is estimated to be around ₹50 billion. On product wise segmentation, Notebook & Paper products contributes around 51% while Writing Instruments and Computer and Daily use contributes 25% and 24% respectively. 6 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) Demographic trends supportive of stationery market in India… 100% Demographic trends for share of Discretionary Discretionary 75% Expenses Expenses average household consumption: (53%) (70%) Rising discretionary 50% expenditure. Necessities 25% Necessities High probability of premium (47%) (30%) purchases. 0% 2005 2025 Rise in the average household Food, Beverages & Tobacco Apparel Housing Utilities income. Household Products Personal products & Services Transportation Communication Education & Recreation Healthcare Source: Mckinsey, Anand Rathi Research India with its rapidly burgeoning economy is underpinning growth for the office stationery market. A growing middle-class coupled with higher government spends on education is driving growth in the school and education segments. Households that can afford discretionary spending is likely to go up to 94 million by 2025 from present around 10 million with its middle class growing from ~50 million to 583 million by 2025. India is one of the fastest rising market in the world with a huge potential to tap as its current stationery market is highly un organized and fragmented. 7 Anand Rathi Research Kokuyo Camlin Limited (CAMLN) …with CAMLN best placed to muster through current phase on back of its strong brand recall and upcoming plant. Sales (₹ Mn.) & Sales Growth CAMLN Margins Profile 6,000 18% 10.0% 5,000 15% 6.5% 4,000 12% 3.0% 3,000 9% -0.5% FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 2,000 6% FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 -4.0% Sales Sales Growth (RHS) EBITDA Margins PAT Margins Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research CAMLN has grown at a CAGR of ~10.5% since FY10 despite increase in competition from both organized and unorganized players in the market.
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