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POISED to OVERTAKE a Study on Tianfu’S Emerging Office Market COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020

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POISED to OVERTAKE a Study on Tianfu’S Emerging Office Market COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 Donna Zhang Senior Manager | Research | West China +86 28 8658 6288 [email protected] POISED TO OVERTAKE A study on Tianfu’s emerging office market COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 Chart 1: Review the development path of the Hi-tech Zone (2005 - 2016) Summary & Recommendations Phase > Tianfu New Area’s development, as a new sub-provincial district under the Tianfu Software Park offers favorable jurisdiction of Sichuan province and the 1 policies attracting numerous TMT, 11th new district in China nationwide (2005- software and Forbes Global 500 since 2014, is attracting a lot of 2015) enterprises to settle, supporting the attention for its development and development of an industry investment opportunities. aggregation. > This report focuses on the office market, and with our market forecast and characteristics of office demand in Phase After relocation of government and Tianfu we hope to provide valuable state-owned enterprises’ solutions for investors and developers headquarters to Hi-tech Zone, we interested in these opportunities. 2 expect their subsidiaries, other > Our recommendations for market- (2008- functional institutions and supporting satisfying office projects in the Tianfu 2012) private enterprises to relocate. New Area include: − During the early leasing stage, from 2020 to 2022, the core competitive advantage in Tianfu will likely be cost performance. Phase From 2012 onward, with a more mature − Developers need to offer office market and supporting facilities, differentiated products such as 3 we witnessed office-for-lease projects longer than market-average free (2010- enjoy greater demand, furthering the rent periods and customized industrial agglomeration effect. decorations to help enhance their 2016) building’s attractiveness − Developers should also reasonably plan the timing of leasing, to avoid Donna Zhang peak supply in their micromarket. Senior Manager Research | West China 2 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 OFFICE-FOR-LEASE RECOMMENDATIONS Offering affordable rent is the key Characteristics of Tianfu New Area towards success Submarkets where demand is supported by Abundant new office supply launched in a short period is underling policies, such as industrial common to see in new areas due to concentrated development policies or tax breaks, face fierce development. Considering the immature commercial services competition from other submarkets, and a and supporting facilities, the core success factor for office longer incubation period is typically needed for projects in new areas will likely be cost-effective products. them to mature. Projects that offer high quality space at relatively low cost will likely seize market opportunities, achieve higher According to our analysis, in the early stages of a occupancy rates and secure quality tenants in a short time. policy-oriented submarket’s development, business parks developed by the government with tax deductions, rent or purchase subsidies, Diversity enhanced attractiveness and state-owned enterprise headquarters will likely be the most attractive property for tenants. Tianfu New Area’s Grade A stock has been increasing, and we this submarket to have the highest proportion of Grade A When those properties achieve high occupancy, offices in Chengdu. However, Grade A offices construction it is time for office-for-lease projects to attract costs are higher, and take longer to lease out due to landlords’ potential tenants in the market. high rental expectations. As such, we suggest landlords have a As such, we recommend office landlords and diversified office portfolio, including high and medium quality developers choosing the timing of their supply buildings and high and low-density buildings. This can reduce carefully, to avoid direct competition with overall office construction costs and reduce the time to fill the projects developed by government or state- buildings. owned enterprises. CONCLUSION As a new player in office market, the business environment in the Tianfu New Area has yet to mature. But considering the development history of similar new areas, Tianfu New Area has been developed with better regional planning and land allocation, and office supply is scheduled to come online at a reasonable pace. Thus, we recommend adhering to this development schedule for a more sustainable pace of office market development in Tianfu New Area. 3 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 OPPORTUNITIES AND Chart 2: Three core development Areas CHALLENGES COEXIST IN OFFICE MARKET Recent planning highlights the function of headquarters 28.6 sq km planned area, Tianfu CBD with a headquarters- This report focuses on the prime office area of oriented economy, Tianfu’s CBD and Science City submarkets, exhibition space and a considering the office supply and demand, as livable vitality. well as additional influencing factors. In 2014, the Tianfu New Area development The 73 sq km pilot zone is plan proposed the construction of Xinglong Science City planned to have six Lake Science City, which became Science City industrial communities, and Qinhuangsi CBD, which became Tianfu including the new economy, CBD. AI, digital economy, 5G, major scientific By the second half of 2018, a new round of infrastructure, with military- planning emerged, with Tianfu New Area’s civilian integration and a core development zones officially divided into high-end commercial the three clusters of Tianfu CBD, Science City industrial park. and Tianfu Cultural and Creative City (please see Chart 2). Total planning area is about According to the June 2019 construction plan, 60 sq km (urban area of 25 Tianfu Cultural and sq km), leading industries Tianfu CBD is positioned as a headquarters- Creative City contains film and television oriented micromarket within the Tianfu New media, cultural and tourism Area. City industries. Office building development is mainly Center concentrated in the Tianfu CBD and Science City, with the Tianfu CBD designated as the Tianfu New largest commercial office cluster in Tianfu New Area Area. Science City has been planned for industrial office properties and business parks. Source: Colliers International, Tianfu New Area Official Website, Mapbox. 4 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 Office Supply and Demand Forecast Tianfu New Area is focused on owner-occupied buildings, with comparatively small amount of area for lease. This is different from Chengdu’s existing Supply perspective submarkets, which are mainly made up of buildings for lease. The development of the Tianfu New Area office market is following the We expect the total office stock of the two core areas (Tianfu CBD & Science development pattern of the Chengdu High-tech Zone, with City) to reach 2.5 million sq metres (26.9 million sq feet) by 2025 (including development of business parks and buildings for state-owned office-for-lease projects, not business parks), but only about 0.8 to 1.25 enterprises the pioneer. million sq metres (8.6 to 13.45 million sq feet) should be available to lease as up to two-thirds of supply is planned to be owner-occupied. On the supply side, to improve our analysis, we focused on office projects that have transacted at least once. Tianfu CBD is planned to Demand Outlook have the highest density of office buildings, and despite Science City having a concentration of offices, these are mainly business parks, and What are the prime tenant site selection considerations? therefore excluded from our analysis. As a basic condition for site selection, the accessibility and public transport As the future core area for office buildings, Tianfu CBD is further in the Tianfu New Area has been improving. Apart from that, the following divided in two areas, the east and west zones. six factors are the primary criteria for tenant site selection: The east zone is developing faster than west zone, and as of Q4 2019, Six key factors affecting companies’ site selection in Tianfu New Area three projects (CCC International Centre, CREC Excellence Centre and CSCEC Southwest Headquarters) already been delivered to market. Sixteen more office projects (see Chart 4) are under construction as Location of planned. We expect the total east zone office market stock to reach 1Rent 2 tenant’s major 1.4 million sq metres (15.1 million sq feet) by 2022. customer base In contrast, the west zone went through a new plan adjustment in 2018, which is set to attract state-owned enterprises’ headquarters and leading private enterprises. By 2019, 15 enterprises (see Chart 5) Location of already signed contracts to launch their headquarters in Tianfu’s west 3 suppliers, clients Quality of office zone. Considering a three to four year construction period, we expect and enterprises 4 buildings and to see the office supply influx from 2023 to 2025, pushing west zone in the same neighboring total stock to be comparable total with that of the east zone. industry or tenants supply chain Characterized by a large amount of leading industry players and the headquarters of high-growth companies, the shape of Tianfu New Area has already appeared. Around 60% of future office supply is developed by state-owned enterprises, with the balance being a mix of leading Talent base Policy support private enterprises’ headquarters, and administrative, accounting 5 6 or incentives settlement and R&D functions. 5 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | RESEARCH | CHENGDU | 10 FEB 2020 > Rent, accessibility
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