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Cash in on Ridiculous Prices VA LU E .A BLE Roger Montgomery SECTOR TECHNOLOGY Cash in on ridiculous prices They may be market darlings but, unfortunately, these tech companies barely make any money he search for the highest returns in WiseTech share price Appen share price Altium share price Afterpay share price Xero share price Australian equities has been concen- $28.00 $30.00 $36.00 $30.00 $65.00 Ttrated in a small group of companies now known as WAAAX stocks - WiseTech, $34.00 $26.00 $60.00 Appen, Afterpay, Altium and Xero. Collec- $25.00 $25.00 $32.00 tively, these companies are expected to earn $24.00 $55.00 just $162 million in the 2019 financial year $30.00 from $1.9 billion in revenue but Afterpay and $22.00 $20.00 Xero don’t make any money at all. $20.00 $28.00 $50.00 Their combined market capitalisation, $20.00 $26.00 $15.00 however, is about $30 billion, which means $45.00 $18.00 they’re trading on a collective price-earn- $15.00 $24.00 $10.00 ings ratio of almost 170 times 2019 earn- $40.00 ings. Xero is not expected to turn a profit $16.00 $22.00 until 2021, when it is currently expected to $14.00 $10.00 $20.00 $5.00 $35.00 produce $23 million. With a market capi- Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May talisation of $8.4 billion, it’s trading on 370 times 2021 forecast earnings. These multiples would tell a humorous After reminding them about risk – by through history have been able to achieve story if they weren’t real, so I am putting a noting that while cash earns just 2%, it this kind of growth. “sell” on the lot of them. They’re now just cannot fall 50% – I proceeded to explain too expensive. the kinds of growth rates these companies Roger Montgomery is the founder and I recently spoke with a retired investor need to achieve over long periods of time CIO at the Montgomery Fund. For his book, who is ruing their decision to move to to justify their valuations. Few companies Value.able, see rogermontgomery.com. cash earlier in the year. With cash now earning less than 2.5% and the WAAAX stocks rallying significantly since they ❶ WiseTech Global ASX code WTC ❷ APPEN ASX code APX ❸ ALTIUM ❹AFTERPAY ❺ XERO sold, they are wondering whether they WiseTech is one of the We think Appen has been Founded in 1985, Altium ASX code ALU This point-of-sale con- ASX code APT Xero is a New Zea- ASX code XRO Price $27.14 Price $25.82 Price $32.67 Price $21.61 Price $59.26 should jump back in. high-quality members of 52wk ▲ $28.29 incorrectly categorised as 52wk ▲ $29.70 creates software that sumer alternative to land-based software this group. The company a technology company, helps computer scien- 52wk ▲ $35.59 credit cards and layby is 52wk ▲ $29.70 company that listed in 52wk ▲ $62.11 52wk ▼ $14.50 52wk ▼ $9.60 52wk ▼ $19.68 52wk ▼ $9.60 52wk ▼ $36.10 WAAAX vital statistics operates in more than Mkt cap $8.47bn thanks to its exposure Mkt cap $3.1bn tists design electronic no more transformative 2007, and has developed 125 countries and is used to artificial intelligence. printed circuit boards. Mkt cap $4.19bn than a dressed-up factor- Mkt cap $5.39bn cloud-based accounting Mkt cap $8.39bn FY19 Market FY19 Dividend 3.15¢ Dividend 8¢ Dividend 30¢ Dividend – Dividend – Revenue NPAT cap PE by three-quarters of the The company, however, It’s a true high-qual- ing business with similar- software for SMEs and Dividend yield 0.12% Dividend yield 0.3% Dividend yield 0.93% Dividend yield – Dividend yield – WiseTech $335m $54.2m $8.47bn 165 world’s top third-party is really a crowdsourcing ity company and at ly low margins and risks. accounting practices in PE ratio 165 PE ratio 65 PE ratio 64 PE ratio – PE ratio – Appen $438m $55m $3.1bn 65 logistics operators and labour-for-hire annotator Montgomery we have Another capital raising Australia, the UK, the 100% of the world’s of data and images, which previously owned it. Just recently, in what must US, South-East Asia and Altium $177.6m $53.4m $4.19bn 64 n SELL n SELL freight forwarders. But in time we believe larger about every electronic n SELL inevitably become a con- n SELL South Africa. In the past n SELL Afterpay* $453m $53m $5.39bn 74 its 30% share price appreciation since last and deeper-pocketed companies will displace. device you can see con- ga line of such events, six months, the company Xero** $553m $23m $8.39bn 370. month’s entry has seen it fall from a hold We could, of course, be wrong and while tains a PCB. And with an internet-connect- coincided with a $100 million selldown by reported that it finally achieved cashflow FY19 TOTAL $1.96bn $162.6m $30.59bn 170 to a sell. growth will probably come for the next few ed version for everything on its way, the the founders. If US growth was without risk, break-even and profitability (having taken *FY20, ** FY21. NPAT: Net profit after tax years, the price is almost impossible to justify outlook is strong. why sell? The share price plunged on news 12 years to do so). SOURCE: Various sell-side estimates, Montgomery Investment Management, ASX on any valuation metric. that it faced a money laundering probe. Prices as at ASX close of business, 14-June-19 close of ASX as at Prices 100 MONEY JULY 2019 MONEY JULY 2019 101.
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