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Petrofin Bank Research – Greek Shipping

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Petrofin Bank Research – Greek Shipping Key Developments and Growth in Greek Ship-Finance June 2021 By Ted Petropoulos, Head, Petrofin Research ©. Petrofin Research© presents, for the 20th year running, an overview and an in-depth analysis of the bank loan portfolios to Greek shipping, as of 31st December 2020. Petrofin wish to thank all participating banks for their steadfast support, without which this research would not have been possible. The portfolios show both the shipping loans outstanding, as well as loans committed but undrawn. The committed but undrawn loans may be viewed as an indication of each bank’s ship lending momentum and / or the extent of its involvement in newbuilding finance. Contents 1. Main Findings p. 2 2. Petrofin Index of Greek Shipfinance p. 3 3. Total Greek Shipfinance Portfolio as of End 2020 p. 4 4. Research and Analysis A. The Greek shipfinance market as of end 2020 p. 6 B. Analysis of the 3 Bank Groups p. 16 C. Newbuilding finance research p. 30 D. The Greek Shipping Syndications market p. 31 5. Highlights of this Year’s Research p. 32 6. The Outlook for 2021 and Beyond p. 33 1 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 1. Main findings Highlight points of this year’s results for Greek ship finance are as follows: Bank shipfinance for Greek shipping has declined further yoy by 6.24%. The overall Greek loans (both drawn and committed but undrawn) booked both in Greece and worldwide as of 31/12/2020 fell to $49,794.51, compared to $53,107.8m in 2019, $53,176.32 in 2018, $53,994.96 in 2017 and $57,211.35 in 2016. The Petrofin Index for Greek Shipfinance, which commenced at 100 in 2001 and peaked at 443 in 2008, fell from 321 in 2019 to 301 in 2020. Drawn loans are down by 4.51%, and have declined by 2.38% in 2019, 1.12% in 2018, 3.69% in 2017 and 5.34% the year before. However, Commitments which had increased last year by 43.75% are now down by 29.22% thus continuing a longer slowdown: 8.8% in 2018, 30.63% in 2017 and 38% in 2016. Greek banks form the only group that shows continuing support and growth in Greek shipping. The upward trend that started in 2017 went on during 2020 and their portfolios are up by 19.76% yoy, the biggest growth of the last few years. International banks WITH a Greek presence reduced substantially their yoy exposure by 19%. The main reason is DVB’s departure, which is going to be felt deeply as DVB has always been a leading player in Greek ship finance. The International Banks WITHOUT a Greek presence have decreased last year. Nord LB’s departure has contributed to the reversal of the previous year’s increase. The number of banks involved in Greek shipfinance has gone up to 56, compared to 55 in 2019 and 52 in 2018. New additions came from Japan (Tokyo Century Bank and Mizuho Marubeni Leasing Corporation). We now include Macquarie Bank on the main list. Credit Suisse remains in the top position despite a portfolio reduction of 16.88%. The top 10 Greek ship financing banks showed a decrease from $29.9bn to $29bn, but their share of the market went up from 56.33% to 58.25%. European banks still account for the vast majority of total loans at 73.84%, continuing, however, a steady decrease: 75.8% in 2019, 76.9%, in 2018, 78.70% in 2017, 81.04% in 2016. The Lead Managers are substantially up by 33.73%, compared to a much thinner rise of 5.48% the previous year. Forward commitments to newbuildings have also increased by 12.92%, continuing a strong momentum which started in 2019, despite the slowdown in Greek shipbuilding orders. The decline of Greek shipfinance bank lending reflects the difficult regulatory and operating environment by banks, primarily in Europe. Comparatively, Far East lenders and leasing companies operated under more supportive conditions. Greek banks are the exception, as they benefit greatly from Greece’s hugely improved S&P and Moody’s rating, a lower cost of funding and attractive loans and ancillary business returns, as well as robust loan portfolios. 2 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 2. Petrofin Index of Greek ship finance The Petrofin Index for Greek ship finance published by Petrofin Research © is down from 321 to 301. Graph 1: Petrofin Index Petrofin Index of Greek ship finance 500 450 443 405 405 409 400 401 398 387 379 372 350 346 327 322 321 300 301 281 250 218 200 196 150 155 129 100 100 50 The Petrofin Index of the Greek shipping portfolios since 2001 has fallen from a high of 443 in 2008 to 321, i.e. -27.53%0 over the last 12 years. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Petrofin Bank Research© - as of end 2020, June 2021 3 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 3. Total Greek ship finance portfolio as of end 2020 Petrofin Bank Research © The annual results by Petrofin Bank Research©, now released for the 20th year running, reflect the exposure of all banks engaged in lending to Greek owners, at the end of 2020. As of end 2020, the total Greek shipping portfolio stood at $49,794.51, reduced from $53,108m the previous year, i.e. a reduction of 6.24 %. Graph 2: Greek ship finance portfolios and their annual growth Greek Shipping Portfolios and their annual Growth over 20 years - in US$million Petrofin Research © www.petrofin.gr June 2021 $80,000 50% 44.31% $73,228 $70,000 $67,694 $66,941 $67,020 40% $66,235 $65,780 $64,019 $62,712 $61,498 $60,000 $57,211 30% $53,995 $53,176 28.66% 28.45% $53,108 $49,795 $50,000 26.61% $46,387 20% 20.19% $40,000 $36,112 $32,353 11.62% 10% 9.39% $30,000 $25,554 2.20% 4.10% $21,261 0% $20,000 -1.17% -2.83% -2.04% -1.52% -0.1% -5.62% $16,525 -6.51% -6.2% -8.48% -8.77% -10% $10,000 $0 -20% Totals in US$m Growth % 4 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 Graph 3: All banks ranked in terms of their Greek portfolios (in US$m): Petrofin Research © www.petrofin.gr All banks ranked in terms of their Greek portfolios (in US$m) June 2021 $0.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $5,000.00 $6,000.00 $7,000.00 Credit Suisse* $5,600 $800.00 BNP Paribas $2,750 $210.00 Piraeus Bank $2,600 $300.00 Alpha Bank $2,750 $100.00 Citi $2,500 $200.00 Eurobank $2,400 $212.00 National Bank of Greece $2,289 $294.80 HSBC* $2,100 ING* $1,950 ABN AMRO $1,750 $200.00 CHINA EXIM* $1,900 Hamburg Commercial Bank * $1,900 KEXIM* $1,500 KFW $1,124 $219.01 Nordea $1,132 $19.00 DNB $978 $74.00 Credit Agricole CIB* $800 Unicredit* $700 DB - Deutsche Shipping* $500 China Development Bank* $500 Total exposure to Greek shipping, as of end 2020: $49,794.51 China Everbright Bank* $400 (Previous year’s total: $53,107.80) Aegean Baltic $380 $7.05 CIT Maritime Finance $300 Petrofin Bank Research© - June 2021 Macquarie $300 Bank of Cyprus $220 Hellenic Bank* $220 NIBC* $160 Astrobank $112 Qatar National Bank* $100 Barwa Bank* $100 Amsterdam Trade Bank* $100 OTHER BANKS (25) $7,043 *Market estimates Drawn Portfolios Committed But Undrawn Portfolios Credit Suisse* continued to hold the top position for the seventh year running, with BNP Paribas again at the second place. DVB is not included this year as its portfolio is fast winding down in the process of leaving shipping. Also, Nord LB is left out for the first time as its portfolio is being wound down / sold. The big Greek banks occupy the top 3rd, 4th and 6th and 7th positions, compared to 5th, 6th, and 7th position last year. 5 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 4. Research and Analysis A. The Greek shipfinance market as of end 2020 Table 1: Bank ranking – in US$m Greek shipping portfolios as of end 2020 Rank Bank Drawn Committed but Undrawn Total % of Total of Greek portfolio 1 Credit Suisse* $5,600.00 $800.00 $6,400.00 12.85% 2 BNP Paribas $2,750.00 $210.00 $2,960.00 5.94% 3 Piraeus Bank $2,600.00 $300.00 $2,900.00 5.82% 4 Alpha Bank $2,750.00 $100.00 $2,850.00 5.72% 5 Citi $2,500.00 $200.00 $2,700.00 5.42% 6 Eurobank $2,400.00 $212.00 $2,612.00 5.25% 7 National Bank of Greece $2,289.00 $294.80 $2,583.80 5.19% 8 HSBC* $2,100.00 $0.00 $2,100.00 4.22% 9 ING* $1,950.00 $0.00 $1,950.00 3.92% 10 ABN AMRO $1,750.00 $200.00 $1,950.00 3.92% 11 CHINA EXIM* $1,900.00 $0.00 $1,900.00 3.82% 12 Hamburg Commercial Bank * $1,900.00 $0.00 $1,900.00 3.82% 13 KEXIM* $1,500.00 $0.00 $1,500.00 3.01% 14 KFW $1,124.25 $219.01 $1,343.25 2.70% 15 Nordea $1,132.00 $19.00 $1,151.00 2.31% 16 DNB $978.00 $74.00 $1,052.00 2.11% 17 Credit Agricole CIB* $800.00 $0.00 $800.00 1.61% 18 Unicredit* $700.00 $0.00 $700.00 1.41% 19 DB - Deutsche Shipping* $500.00 $0.00 $500.00 1.00% 20 China Development Bank* $500.00 $0.00 $500.00 1.00% 21 China Everbright Bank* $400.00 $0.00 $400.00 0.80% 22 Aegean Baltic $380.40 $7.05 $387.45 0.78% 23 CIT Maritime Finance $300.00 $0.00 $300.00 0.60% 24 Macquarie $300.00 $0.00 $300.00 0.60% 25 Bank of Cyprus $220.00 $0.00 $220.00 0.44% 26 Hellenic Bank* $220.00 $0.00 $220.00 0.44% 27 NIBC* $160.00 $0.00 $160.00 0.32% 28 Astrobank $112.00 $0.00 $112.00 0.22% 29 Qatar National Bank* $100.00 $0.00 $100.00 0.20% 30 Barwa Bank* $100.00 $0.00 $100.00 0.20% 31 Amsterdam Trade Bank* $100.00 $0.00 $100.00 0.20% OTHER BANKS (25) $7,043.00 $0.00 $7,043.00 14.14% Total Greek portfolio $47,158.65 $2,635.86 $49,794.51 100% Overall number of banks 56 Petrofin Bank Research © - June 2021 *Market Estimate 6 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2021 Graph 4: Bank exposure in terms of bank groups is as follows: Petrofin Research © www.petrofin.gr Greek shipping bank portfolios since 2001 – per bank group June 2021 in US$m $40,000 $38,984 $36,777 $35,882 $35,290 $35,000 $34,040 $33,914 $30,537 $29,441 $30,000 $27,104 $25,707 $24,992 $25,000 $24,252 $26,435 $23,747 $23,759 $24,501 $20,231 $23,437 $19,540 $19,161 $20,000 $17,887 $23,990 $15,840 $16,141 $15,884 $21,467 $14,517 $18,433 $13,939 $17,477 $17,300 $14,162 $15,000 $14,469 $12,705 $11,885 $14,788 $16,944 $10,819 $9,924 $10,125 $14,102 $10,487 $9,091 $9,821 $12,070 $9,173 $8,721 $10,000 $8,185 $14,061 $7,050 $10,049 $9,788 $8,604 $7,347 $6,165 $5,000 $5,642 $6,344 $6,523 $4,472 $3,310 $0 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Greek banks as a group continue to raise their exposure to Greek shipping.
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