Direct lenders poised for action in uncertain market Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 This issue covers data for the second half of 2020 and includes 232 Alternative Lender deals. While this represents a 52% increase in the number of deals from H1 2020, there was a 25% decrease from H2 2019.
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker editorial team
Robert Connold Andrew Cruickshank Megan de Jager Varun Bambarkar Edward Rushworth Head of Alternative Director Manager Deputy Manager Assistant Manager Lender Debt Advisory +44 (0) 20 7007 0522 +44 (0) 20 7007 5914 +91 22 6185 6311 +44 (0) 20 7007 6438 +44 (0) 20 7007 0479 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 | Contents
Contents
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Introduction 02
Alternative Lending in action: Case study 06
Alternative Lending in action: Nordics 09
Alternative Lender Deal Tracker H1 2020 deals 13
Direct Lending fundraising 20
Diversity Review in corporate credit 34
Insights into the European Alternative Lending market 38
Deloitte Debt and Capital Advisory 50
© Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker 01 Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 Introduction 02 whom Deloitte is tracking deals Europe. across tracking is Deloitte whom than in the preceding 6months. covers Our report 63 major Lenders Alternative with the same period in the previous year. However, lending in H2 2020 was 52% higher that in H2 2020, there was a25% decrease in Lending Alternative deals compared to editionAlternative theof Deloitte Lender Deal In this twenty-fifth Tracker, we report Introduction Tracker Deal Lender Alternative Deloitte 2021 Spring Tracker Deal Lender Alternative Deloitte £215 billion in February 2021. February in £215 billion reaching borrowing net sector public with 1960s, the since seen not levels at borrowed Government UK the generally, conditions economic to in response and industries those up shore to effort an in Consequently, holidays. and activities leisure out, meals as such services consumed socially on goes nation, G7 any in than more spending, consumer UK of proportion high unusually an Moreover, Eurozone. the for average 53% the than higher far and US, the than other economy wealthy any GDP, than UK higher of 64% for accounts spending Consumer Depression. Great the in even seen anything than worse far years, 300 over in contraction annual largest the also and Spain, than other Europe, in economy sizeable any of decline sharpest the was This accounting. sector public for methodology in differences for adjustment before GDP in decline a9.9% posting lockdowns, three its by hard especially UKglobal economy. economy was hit consumption-heavy The the for year adreadful 2020 was it, measure you way Whichever © Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Introduction | event since the Second World War. World Second the since event any than sheets balance government to damaging more be to set COVID-19 looks world, Western the of much across seen being picture asimilar and rise to continuing costs £150 With billion. than more slightly only 2009-10 reached in Crisis Financial Global the following borrowing net total perspective, into To this put 52 v v flow deal ncrea e in 2,694
completed deals Total Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 Introduction 03 | Introduction | © Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring2021 The private debt market has successfully has market The debt private defying so far any pandemic, the navigated the to Prior crisis. a debt about worries a that believed commonly it was pandemic, deal of a reset allow would crisis documentation which of in the balance lender. to shift borrower would from power Despite such a momentous year for the global economy, the loan loan the economy, global the for year momentous a such Despite markets have held up with remarkable resilience. Whilst deal activity was suppressed in the second and third quarters of 2020, private markets rebounded strongly in Q4 of 2020, and public markets Finance of in 2021. in Q1 support of the buyout of ASDA got the market off to a flying start in January; its new owners pulled in over £8bn of orders for their £2.75bn debt issue, making it the largest sterling high yield bond issuance ever seen in the European market, and one where the subordinated tranche was priced at the skinniestpremium seen by the market While since 2010. the high-yield bond market in the UK is very active, it lacksthe depth of liquidity of the dollar andeuro markets and sterling has traditionally been seen as a niche currency. According total to LCD, primary in January issuance wasof €11.6bn the 2021 largest recorded in the past months, 12 and almost everytransaction completed in the primary market in the year to date was on terms inside those originally guided, some as much as a 75bps delta. This strength of demand is equally reflected in the secondary market, where the average bid of LCD’s European loan flow-name composite stood at 99.68 of par on 25 February, a touch away from a pre-lockdown high of in 103.39 January 2020. While the UK plans to increase tax receipts to solve its growing deficit problem, we seem to be witnessinga historic shift in thinking on US fiscal policy. Put simply, the US plans to spend its way out of the pandemic. In late February, the new Treasury secretary Janet Yellen declared it was time to “act big” on fiscal policy to boost US growth and on6 March the US Senate passed the administration’s stimulus $1.9tn package to support growth. Later this year the administration plans to go further, with new spending on infrastructure, climate change, education, digital transformation and healthcare. together Taken the measures could be worth The 9% booming of US GDP. US equity market, up 20% since last November’s elections, shows that investors are positioned for a strong recovery. The big question is whether the recovery will leave the US economy operating above capacity, risking a serious and persistent inflation overshoot. The US bond market reacted swiftly with a sell off and spike in yields, which jumped to one-year highs on the of 1.6% 10-year benchmark note, having started the month of February at 1.1%. To softenTo the impact of continued restrictions in the interim period, the UK Chancellor delivered his second budget, outlining an extension of the furlough scheme until the end of September, additional grants for the self-employed, an extension to business rates holidays, and reduced for rates sectors of VAT most impacted by the pandemic. Despite liberal use of the word ‘generous’, there was one surprise in the form of a plan to increase the mainrate of corporation tax from to 25% by 2023. 19% While such a rise in business tax will be partially offset by a new tax ‘super-deduction’ forof 130% eligible investment, this marks a significant move away from the Conservative low-tax ideology, not to mention the highest rate of tax increase in almost three decades. That said, there are high hopes for an extraordinary rebound in In late February,2021. the UK Prime Minister set out his ‘roadmap’ to ease current public health restrictions. Schools reopenedon 8 adverse barring any developments, and hospitality outdoor March and retail will reopen April, on the 12 indoor hospitality and domestic holidays will be permitted from and May, all the other 17 remaining restrictions will be lifted from the June. 21 Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 | Introduction
…the influx of IPO and special-purpose Whilst contrary to expectations there has been no let-up in commitments sought by distressed funds, managers in this space acquisition company (SPACs) activity is are yet to deploy at any great scale. Ultimately, the real fallout from the pandemic is yet to come, as many corporate borrowers under funnelling liquidity back to investors. stress continue to defer rent and rates and make use of government support in the form of furlough and the Coronavirus The private debt market has successfully navigated the pandemic, Business Loan Interruption schemes. This is evident in a recent so far defying any worries about a debt crisis. Prior to the slowdown in the rate of downgrades, which has led to optimism pandemic, it was commonly believed that a crisis would allow a that defaults will remain below expectations this year. Data from reset of deal documentation in which the balance of power would LCD shows that there were only 17 downgrades in the S&P shift from borrower to lender. So far, there’s little sign of it. After European Leveraged Loan Index in the three months to January three consecutive quarters of declining numbers, European direct this year, which is the lowest since December 2019. But is it a case lending activity surged in Q4 of 2020, driving the number of deals of watching and waiting? The answer lies in whether the economy is up to 155, the highest ever recorded Q4 level and a 2% increase on likely to experience a gradual but choppy economic recovery, or the previous year’s record. The most attractive assets in the something more cataclysmic later this year. For corporate Technology, Healthcare and Financial Services sectors continue to borrowers, insolvency risks are likely to increase if cash flows and attract terms stronger than those received pre-pandemic, and earnings do not return to pre-pandemic trend levels before several gorilla funds continue to finance jumbo deals once reserved extraordinary fiscal stimulus is withdrawn. The next question is for the syndicated markets, with GSO announcing its £1.8bn whether those investors are prepared to sit it out on the side-lines, financing of Bourne Leisure. In a departure from the norm, The or whether there is an interim stage during which participants Restaurant Group became the latest listed borrower to tap the begin acquiring debt tranches from bank lenders that are looking private debt market in its £380m financing from HPS. to shed their exposure in the expectation that any future stress will lead to a reprofiling of terms. Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 Introduction 2021 Spring Tracker Alternative Deal Lender Meanwhile, the influx of IPO and special-purpose acquisition company (SPACs) activity is funnelling liquidity back to investors. Such activity only drives capital in private markets back to their The answer lies in whether the economy investors, which in turn drives those investors to reinvest in new is likely to experience a gradual but commitments if they are to maintain their allocations to the asset class. Earlier this year, Ares Management announced $11bn of choppy economic recovery, or something commitments for its fifth European credit fund, exceeding its more cataclysmic later this year. original target of $9bn and bringing the total funding to €20bn for its strategy in Europe - from humble beginnings of €311m in 2007. In a dissimilar but not unrelated vein, Investec and HSBC both recently announced a foray into the private debt market the former raising its own fund, and the latter agreeing a tie up with its asset management division.
04 © Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Alternative Lender DealAlternative Tracker Spring 2021 Introduction Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2021 | Introduction
H2 2020 deals completed Robert Connold Head of Alternative Lender Debt Advisory Tel: +44 (0) 20 7007 0479 Email: [email protected]