Health Insurer Financial Insights Volume 3 | Summer 2020
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Consulting Actuaries HEALTH INSURER FINANCIAL INSIGHTS VOLUME 3 | SUMMER 2020 As we present the third edition of our Health Insurer Financial Insights IN THIS ISSUE newsletter, we find ourselves in the midst of unprecedented times. Q2 YTD 2020 Statutory Results This newsletter focuses on market profitability and capitalization by Market trends for public and non-public health insurers, and their claims experience through the first half of 2020. Section 04 provides insight 01 into how health carriers are reporting the impact of COVID-19. Our Market aim is to keep you abreast of key market trends and dynamics that Capitalization: Statutory Capital/ impact health insurer financial results and profitability. We hope you RBC Trends enjoy the newsletter and find it informative. Please look for our next 02 edition this Fall. Public Companies Financial Q2 YTD 2020 Statutory Financials: Individual, Group, Medicare, and Medicaid Markets Performance Overall, health insurer profit margins improved in 2020. Pre-tax margins increased in Q2 2020 with decreased loss ratios in all markets due to the impact of COVID-19 on developing claims experience. The differences by line of business indicate that COVID-19 has had a larger impact 03 on the claim experience for certain services, such as Dental, when compared to major medical and Rx services. COVID-19 Corner 2019 Market Capitalization: Statutory Capital/Risk Based Capital (RBC) Trends Market capitalization measured by Total Adjusted Capital (TAC) increased due to small increases in market size (measured by premium) and very little total change in Risk Based 04 Capital ratios. Overall, Public Companies saw minor decreases to their RBC ratios in 2019, while Non-Public Blues saw increases in both TAC and RBC ratios. Public Companies Financial Performance Public Companies continue to perform well. We reviewed the profitability of their insured blocks of business and noted that margins increased, as loss ratios improved in Q2 2020 as a result of reduced utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, operating expenses have been increasing in recent quarters. 01 Q2 YTD 2020 STATUTORY1 RESULTS BY MARKET HEALTH INSURERSpg2 Total chart size 3.05 x chart size 3.05 x 2.3 1.65 FINANCIALS BY MARKET chart size 3.05 x 2.1 We summarize the reported profitability trends of carriers with Q2 2020 YTD statutory financial information. We also summarize enrollment and loss ratio trends in the individual, group, Medicare, and Medicaid markets. Overall, pre-tax margins increased in Q1–Q2 2020 to 5.9% with decreased loss ratios due to the impact from COVID-19 lockdowns. ALL MARKETS (COMMERCIAL, MEDICARE, MEDICAID, AND OTHER) Profit Margin ALL MARKETS PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS 2015 TO Q1–Q2 2020/PUBLIC VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Overall, health insurer profit margins improved in 7% Q1–Q2 2020 to 5.9%. 6.5% 5.9% Margins increased for Public 6% 5.9% Companies from 2019 by 2.7%. For Non-Public Blues, 5% 4.7% the margins increased by 4.0% over these reported in 4% 2019 and for Other Health Carriers margins improved 3% by 3.6%. 2% 1% Pre-tax Profit Margin (as % of Premium) 0 -1% -2% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health Companies Blues Carriers Carriers Q1–Q2 2020 Carrier Type 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 vs 2019 Public Companies 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 3.8% 2.7% 6.5% Non-Public Blues -1.0% 0.6% 3.5% 4.2% 1.9% 4.0% 5.9% Other Health Carriers 2.5% 2.3% 3.9% 2.8% 1.1% 3.6% 4.7% All Health Carriers 2.4% 2.8% 4.1% 4.0% 2.6% 3.3% 5.9% 1. NAIC health blanks only. Excludes NAIC Life/Accident/Health, NAIC P&C, and CA DMHC Filers. Data as of September 2020. Copyright © 2020 Oliver Wyman 2 pg 3 Group Market chart size 3.05 x 1.65 All Carriers Change: 5.6% 3.7% 4.5% 3.0% 1.8% $480 $460 01 Q2 YTD 2020 STATUTORY1 RESULTS BY MARKET $440 $420 $400 GROUP MARKET pgPremium PMPM pg 3 Group3 Group Market Market $380chart size 3.05 x chart1.65 size 3.05 x Premiums PMPM 1.65COMMERCIAL GROUP PREMIUMS PMPM PUBLIC$360 VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Group premiums PMPM increased slightly in 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 AllAll Carriers Carriers Change: Change: 5.65.6% % 3.73.7% % 4.54.5% % 3.03.0% % 1.81.8% % Q1–Q2 2020, with average market premiums $480 reaching $467 PMPM for Q1–Q2 2020, an $480 $460 increase of 1.8% from 2019. The increase is the $460 18 $440 lowest for Public Companies (0.0%) and highest $440 for Other Health Carriers (6.6%). $42016 $420 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health $40014 $400Premium PMPM Companies Blues Carriers Carriers Premium PMPM $380 $38012 $360 $360 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Covered Lives (in Millions) 8 2 COMMERCIAL GROUP ENROLLMENT Enrollment 6 PUBLIC VS.2015 BLUE VS. OTHER2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Enrollment in the comprehensive fully insured 18 18 group market continued to decline in Q1–Q2 2020 16 at an average of -3.8% from 2019. 16 14 Q1–Q2 14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12 Total Enrollment 12 (in Millions) 34.5 32.5 31.8 30.9 29.8 28.6 10 10 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health Covered Lives (in Millions) Covered Lives (in Millions) 8 Companies Blues Carriers Carriers 8 6 6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Loss Ratio COMMERCIAL GROUP LOSS RATIO PUBLIC VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Reported loss ratios decreased -8.1% to 77.6% 92% in Q1–Q2 2020 from 2019. The decrease was consistent across the three insurer types. 89% Public Non-Public Other Health All Health 86% Companies Blues Carriers Carriers 83% Loss Ratio 80% 77% 74% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 92% 92% 89% Q1–Q2 2020 Carrier Type 2015 2016 2017 89% 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 vs 2019 86% Public Companies 80.0% 80.9% 81.7%86% 82.1% 84.0% -8.1% 75.9% 83% Non-Public Blues 83.7% 82.9% 81.7%83% 81.9% 84.2% -8.2% 76.0% Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Other Health Carriers 88.0% 88.4% 87.8% 80% 87.2% 90.0% -8.3% 81.8% 80% All Health Carriers 83.8% 83.8% 83.4% 83.4% 85.7% -8.1% 77.6% 77% 77% 1. NAIC health blanks only. Excludes NAIC Life/Accident/Health, NAIC P&C, and CA DMHC Filers. Data as of September 2020. 2. Some of the market enrollment is not included, most notably those insured by Life/Accident/Health74% statutory filers, which needs to be considered when reviewing this chart and others in this report. 74% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Copyright © 2020 Oliver Wyman 3 Pg 4 Individual Market Public Non-Public Other Health All Health chart size 3.05 x Companies Blues Carriers Carriers 1.65 All Carriers Change: 11.6% 21.1% 20.0% -1.4 % 1.3% $650 $550 01 Q2 YTD 2020 STATUTORY1 RESULTS BY MARKET $450 Pg 4 Individual Market INDIVIDUAL MARKET $350 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health Pg 4 Individual Companies Blues Carriers Carriers MarketPremium PMPM chart size 3.05 x 1.65 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health Premiums PMPM COMPREHENSIVE$250chart size 3.05 INDIVIDUAL x Companies PREMIUMS Blues PMPMCarriers Carriers PUBLIC1.65 VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Individual premiums remained fairly flat in All Carriers Change: 11.6% 21.1% 20.0% -1.4 % 1.3% Q1–Q2 2020 with reported average individual $150 All Carriers$650 Change:2015 112016.6% 21.1%2017 20.0%2018 -1.42019 % Q1–Q21.3 %2020 market premiums of $499 PMPM, an increase $650 of 1.3% from 2019. For Public Companies the $550 8 change in premium was the highest at 6.0% and $550 for Other Health Carriers, the lowest at -2.4%. $4507 $4506 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health Companies Blues Carriers Carriers $350 5 Premium PMPM $350 4 Premium PMPM $250 3 $250 $150 Covered Lives (in Millions) 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 $1501 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 2 0 Enrollment COMPREHENSIVE8 2015 2INDIVIDUAL016 2017 ENROLLMENT2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 PUBLIC VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Enrollment remained essentially unchanged from 87 2019. Public and Other Health Companies increased 76 enrollment slightly from 2019 levels. Public Companies 65 market participation is likely driven by a more stable 54 market and improved financial performance. 43 Q1–Q2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Covered Lives (in Millions) 2 2020 3 Total Enrollment Covered Lives (in Millions) 21 (in Millions) 15.1 15.1 13.8 12.6 12.0 12.1 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Public Non-Public Other Health All Health 0 Companies Blues Carriers Carriers 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1–Q2 2020 Loss Ratio COMPREHENSIVE INDIVIDUAL LOSS RATIO PUBLIC VS. BLUE VS. OTHER Reported loss ratios decreased by 7.4% to 72.2% 110% in Q1–Q2 2020 from 2019. The decrease is largest among Public Companies at 12.0% and the lowest 100% for Non-Public Blues and Other Health Carriers at 90% 5.9% and 5.8%, respectively.