'REMAIN' Mps MOST VULNERABLE to a PRO-BREXIT SWING in the GENERAL ELECTION

1st March 2017

‘REMAIN’ MPs MOST VULNERABLE TO A PRO-BREXIT SWING IN THE GENERAL ELECTION

Today we are publishing our research on ‘Remain’ MPs Most Vulnerable to a Pro-Brexit Swing in the Next General Election, which details the pro-Remain MPs, from pro-Remain political parties, most vulnerable to a possible pro-Brexit swing at the next General Election. Those whose constituencies voted ‘Leave’ in the EU Referendum, by a greater margin than the MP’s majority over a pro-Brexit party at the last General Election, are listed here. They are ranked by the difference between the 2 figures. The MPs included in our list are overwhelmingly Labour MPs, and are mostly vulnerable to the Conservatives – although UKIP are the strongest pro-Brexit competitor in many of the seats. These MPs represent constituencies from across England and Wales, but are primarily concentrated in the Midlands and the North of England. Our list does not include only marginal seats, or only Brexit strongholds. The seats range from the ultra-marginal to the relatively safe, and the margins of victory for ‘Leave’ range from relatively small to overwhelming. David Winnick, the Labour MP for Walsall North, is the MP ranked most at-risk. The margin of victory for ‘Leave’ in his constituency was 48.4%, while his majority is just 5.3% – a 43-point difference. Special attention must also be paid to Paul Farrelly, the Labour MP for Newcastle- under-Lyme who voted against invoking Article 50. ‘Leave’ won in his constituency by over 23%, and his majority is just 1.5%.

CONTENTS: Executive Summary 2 Data Breakdown 3 Methodology 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:  In total, there are 69 pro-Remain MPs in constituencies where the percentage lead for ‘Leave’ in the EU Referendum was greater than the MP’s percentage majority at the last General Election. 67 of these MPs are Labour, and 2 are Liberal Democrats.

 3 of these MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill earlier this month – Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington), Mary Creagh (Wakefield), and Paul Farrelly (Newcastle- under-Lyme).

 The top 10 most at-risk MPs are David Winnick (Walsall North), Rob Flello (Stoke-on- Trent South), Ian Austin (Dudley North), Ruth Smeeth (Stoke-on-Trent North), Iain Wright (Hartlepool), Sir Alan Meale (Mansfield), Nic Dakin (Scunthorpe), Melanie Onn (Great Grimsby), Jon Cruddas (Dagenham and Rainham), and Gordon Marsden (Blackpool South). All 10 are Labour MPs.

 The strongest pro-Brexit party at the last General Election in 51 of these constituencies, including 8 of the top 10, was the Conservative Party. In the other 18, including 2 of the top 10, it was UKIP, a party which got only 1 MP at the last General Election – Douglas Carswell – although they had a 12.6% share of the vote at that time.

 The top 4 seats in our list are all in the West Midlands. They are joined in the top 10 by 2 seats in Yorkshire and the Humber, and 1 each in North West England, North East England, the East Midlands, and Greater London. In our entire list, 63 seats are in England, and 6 are in Wales.

 It is not just MPs in major Brexit strongholds who are vulnerable – many MPs in more marginal seats, with relatively small ‘Leave’ majorities, are also at risk. For example, Paul Farrelly (Newcastle-under-Lyme), who has just a 1.5% majority in a constituency where Leave won by 23.3%, is more vulnerable than Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central), who has a 34% majority in a constituency where Leave won by 36.8%.

 The margins of victory for ‘Leave’ in constituencies on our list range from 5.1% (Wes Streeting, Ilford North) to 48.4% (David Winnick, Walsall North).

 The majorities of MPs on our list range from 1% (Holly Lynch, Halifax) to 34% (Dan Jarvis, Barnsley Central).

 8 MPs on our list have majorities below 5% – Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington), Natascha Engel (North East Derbyshire), Paul Farrelly (Newcastle-under-Lyme), Holly Lynch (Halifax), Rob Marris (Wolverhampton South West), Paula Sherriff (Dewsbury), Wes Streeting (Ilford North), and John Woodcock (Barrow and Furness). In all 8 cases, the Conservatives were the second most popular party at the last General Election.

DATA BREAKDOWN:

Strongest Leave Leave MP pro- MP Party Constituency Difference Place vote lead majority Brexit party David Winnick Lab Walsall North 74.2% 48.4% 5.3% 43.1% Con 2nd Rob Flello Lab Stoke-on-Trent South 70.8% 41.7% 6.5% 35.2% Con 2nd Ian Austin Lab Dudley North 71.4% 42.9% 11.0% 31.9% Con 2nd Ruth Smeeth Lab Stoke-on-Trent North 72.1% 44.2% 12.5% 31.7% Con 2nd Iain Wright Lab Hartlepool 69.6% 39.1% 7.7% 31.4% UKIP 2nd Alan Meale Lab Mansfield 70.9% 41.7% 11.3% 30.4% Con 2nd Nic Dakin Lab Scunthorpe 69.1% 38.2% 8.5% 29.7% Con 2nd Melanie Onn Lab Great Grimsby 71.4% 42.9% 13.5% 29.4% Con 2nd Jon Cruddas Lab Dagenham and Rainham 69.9% 39.9% 11.6% 28.3% UKIP 2nd Gordon Marsden Lab Blackpool South 67.8% 35.6% 8.0% 27.6% Con 2nd Middlesbrough South and East Tom Blenkinsop Lab 65.0% 30.0% 5.0% 25.0% Con 2nd Cleveland Gloria De Piero Lab Ashfield 70.6% 41.2% 18.6% 22.6% Con 2nd Paul Farrelly Lab Newcastle-under-Lyme 61.7% 23.3% 1.5% 21.8% Con 2nd Graham Jones Lab Hyndburn 65.8% 31.5% 10.3% 21.2% Con 2nd Natascha Engel Lab North East Derbyshire 62.2% 24.3% 3.9% 20.4% Con 2nd Mary Creagh Lab Wakefield 62.8% 25.5% 6.1% 19.4% Con 2nd Emma Reynolds Lab Wolverhampton North East 67.7% 35.4% 16.2% 19.2% Con 2nd Kevin Barron Lab Rother Valley 66.7% 33.4% 15.5% 17.9% UKIP 2nd Richard Burden Lab Birmingham, Northfield 61.8% 23.6% 5.9% 17.7% Con 2nd Holly Lynch Lab Halifax 58.8% 17.6% 1.0% 16.6% Con 2nd Caroline Flint Lab Don Valley 68.6% 37.1% 20.9% 16.2% Con 2nd Adrian Bailey Lab West Bromwich West 69.1% 38.3% 22.1% 16.2% UKIP 2nd Karl Turner Lab Kingston upon Hull East 72.6% 45.3% 29.4% 15.9% UKIP 2nd Sarah Champion Lab Rotherham 68.3% 36.7% 22.3% 14.4% UKIP 2nd Ed Miliband Lab Doncaster North 72.1% 44.1% 29.8% 14.3% UKIP 2nd Liz McInnes Lab Heywood and Middleton 62.4% 24.9% 10.9% 14.0% UKIP 2nd Susan Jones Lab Clwyd South 60.3% 20.5% 6.9% 13.6% Con 2nd Julie Cooper Lab Burnley 66.6% 33.2% 20.3% 12.9% UKIP 3rd Helen Goodman Lab Bishop Auckland 60.6% 21.2% 8.9% 12.3% Con 2nd Alex Cunningham Lab Stockton North 66.5% 33.0% 21.1% 11.9% Con 2nd Paula Sherriff Lab Dewsbury 57.3% 14.5% 2.7% 11.8% Con 2nd John Woodcock Lab Barrow and Furness 56.8% 13.6% 1.8% 11.8% Con 2nd Jack Dromey Lab Birmingham, Erdington 63.0% 25.9% 14.8% 11.1% Con 2nd Michael Dugher Lab Barnsley East 70.8% 41.6% 31.2% 10.4% UKIP 2nd Judith Cummins Lab Bradford South 63.6% 27.1% 17.2% 9.9% Con 2nd Tom Watson Lab West Bromwich East 67.6% 35.2% 25.3% 9.9% Con 2nd

Anna Turley Lab Redcar 67.6% 35.1% 25.5% 9.6% UKIP 3rd Tom Brake LibDem Carshalton and Wallington 56.3% 12.6% 3.2% 9.4% Con 2nd Ian Lucas Lab Wrexham 57.3% 14.7% 5.6% 9.1% Con 2nd Valerie Vaz Lab Walsall South 61.6% 23.3% 14.4% 8.9% Con 2nd Sue Hayman Lab Workington 60.3% 20.6% 12.2% 8.4% Con 2nd Jenny Chapman Lab Darlington 58.1% 16.1% 7.7% 8.4% Con 2nd Angela Smith Lab Penistone and Stocksbridge 61.3% 22.7% 14.3% 8.4% Con 2nd Norman Lamb LibDem North Norfolk 58.3% 16.5% 8.2% 8.3% Con 2nd Jon Trickett Lab Hemsworth 68.1% 36.3% 28.5% 7.8% Con 2nd Rosie Winterton Lab Doncaster Central 66.3% 32.6% 25.0% 7.6% UKIP 2nd Mark Tami Lab Alyn and Deeside 57.7% 15.5% 8.1% 7.4% Con 2nd Geoffrey Robinson Lab Coventry North West 58.7% 17.3% 10.0% 7.3% Con 2nd Jessica Morden Lab Newport East 60.3% 20.5% 13.4% 7.1% Con 2nd Rob Marris Lab Wolverhampton South West 54.4% 8.7% 2.0% 6.7% Con 2nd Kingston upon Hull West and Alan Johnson Lab 67.8% 35.7% 29.3% 6.4% UKIP 2nd Hessle Debbie Abrahams Lab Oldham East and Saddleworth 59.9% 19.8% 13.5% 6.3% Con 2nd Vernon Coaker Lab Gedling 56.2% 12.4% 6.2% 6.2% Con 2nd John Healey Lab Wentworth and Dearne 69.0% 38.0% 32.0% 6.0% UKIP 2nd Barbara Keeley Lab Worsley and Eccles South 59.8% 19.6% 14.1% 5.5% Con 2nd David Crausby Lab Bolton North East 57.8% 15.5% 10.1% 5.4% Con 2nd Pat McFadden Lab Wolverhampton South East 68.1% 36.3% 31.0% 5.3% Con 2nd Normanton, Pontefract and Yvette Cooper Lab 69.3% 38.5% 33.6% 4.9% UKIP 2nd Castleford Lindsay Hoyle Lab Chorley 56.6% 13.1% 8.8% 4.3% Con 2nd Wes Streeting Lab Ilford North 52.6% 5.1% 1.2% 3.9% Con 2nd Clive Betts Lab Sheffield South East 66.5% 33.0% 29.5% 3.5% UKIP 2nd Dan Jarvis Lab Barnsley Central 68.4% 36.8% 34.0% 2.8% UKIP 2nd Jonathan Reynolds Lab Stalybridge and Hyde 59.3% 18.6% 16.3% 2.3% Con 2nd Justin Madders Lab Ellesmere Port and Neston 57.8% 15.5% 13.4% 2.1% Con 2nd David Hanson Lab Delyn 54.8% 9.5% 7.8% 1.7% Con 2nd Margaret Beckett Lab Derby South 61.6% 23.2% 21.6% 1.6% Con 2nd Yvonne Fovargue Lab Makerfield 65.0% 30.0% 29.4% 0.6% UKIP 2nd Nick Thomas- Lab Torfaen 60.9% 21.8% 21.5% 0.3% Con 2nd Symonds Phil Wilson Lab Sedgefield 58.9% 17.9% 17.7% 0.2% Con 2nd

METHODOLOGY: The estimated ‘Leave’ vote for each constituency was taken from Chris Hanretty’s ‘Revised estimates of leave vote in Westminster constituencies’. Where available, the known result has been used instead of the estimate. The ‘Remain’ MPs eligible for inclusion in our list are those from parties which supported blocking or amending the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill in the House of Commons (Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green), with the exception of individual MPs from those parties who supported ‘Leave’ in the EU Referendum. The constituencies listed are those in which the ‘Leave’ margin of victory in the EU Referendum was larger than the MP’s majority over the next-strongest party not listed above in the last General Election. They are ranked by the difference between the margin of the ‘Leave’ victory and the MP’s majority, with the largest difference first. Percentage margins have been used instead of raw numbers in order to account for turnout. Constituencies where a by-election has been held since the EU Referendum have been excluded from this list. This does not take into account other factors which may affect the results of the next General Election. However, it is a broad indicator of which MPs are most vulnerable to a hypothetical pro-Brexit political realignment, taking into account the size of the MP’s majority as well as the proportion of their constituents who voted for Brexit. Our list intends to expose the very real electoral risk to many MPs of failing to adequately support the will of the people, as expressed in the EU Referendum result – and the potential electoral rewards from embracing Brexit.