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Exposure Assessment of Asthma and Modeling of PM2.5 During the 2007 Southern California Wildfires

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Exposure Assessment of Asthma and Modeling of PM2.5 During the 2007 Southern California Wildfires San Jose State University SJSU ScholarWorks Master's Theses Master's Theses and Graduate Research Fall 2016 Exposure Assessment of Asthma and Modeling of PM2.5 during the 2007 Southern California Wildfires Areana Flores San Jose State University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/etd_theses Recommended Citation Flores, Areana, "Exposure Assessment of Asthma and Modeling of PM2.5 during the 2007 Southern California Wildfires" (2016). Master's Theses. 4752. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31979/etd.w3fg-43ma https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/etd_theses/4752 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Master's Theses and Graduate Research at SJSU ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of SJSU ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF ASTHMA AND MODELING OF PM2.5 DURING THE 2007 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Science San José State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree Master of Science by Areana Flores December 2016 ©2016 Areana Flores ALL RIGHTS RESERVED The Designated Thesis Committee Approves the Thesis Titled EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF ASTHMA AND MODELING OF PM2.5 DURING THE 2007 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES By Areana Flores APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE SCIENCE SAN JOSÉ STATE UNIVERSITY December 2016 Dr. Martin Leach Department of Meteorology and Climate Science Dr. Frank Freedman Department of Meteorology and Climate Science Dr. Craig Clements Department of Meteorology and Climate Science ABSTRACT EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF ASTHMA AND MODELING OF PM2.5 DURING THE 2007 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES By Areana Flores A three-year study (1 Jan 07 to 31 Dec 09) was conducted for Los Angeles and Riverside counties to validate current findings on impacts of wildfires on respiratory health. A dataset developed from multiple sources containing daily rates of air pollution (O3, NO2, CO, and PM2.5) and meteorological variables (temperature, dew point, wind speed, and inversion height) was correlated with asthma emergency department (ED) visits. A second correlation was calculated for a modified dataset that excludes all episodes of wildfire events within the study period. The difference in correlations between both datasets was computed. PM2.5 was positively associated with asthma ED visits during Fall 2007 and its correlation differed significantly between the original and modified datasets. Using CALMET/CALPUFF/WRF from BlueSky’s air modeling framework, the October 2007 wildfires in Southern California were simulated to evaluate and assess the accuracy of PM2.5 concentrations produced by the models. WRF meteorological fields were used as a first guess for input to the CALMET diagnostic meteorological model. This study attempts to improve on the Jackson et al. 2006 study by using a CALMET/WRF hybrid, as WRF is a more physically advanced model than MM5. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the four terrain adjustment schemes. In conclusion, results from this model framework proved to be accurate within 10 µg/m³ on th th October 24 for all schemes, but varied for other dates. After October 26 , PM2.5 underestimations may have resulted from excluding emissions from San Diego wildfires. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge my main advisors Dr. Martin Leach and Dr. Frank Freedman who were patient and always readily available. I had this idea for a project and I could not have completed it without their guidance and support. They taught me what is required and expected as a scientist, a skill that has been polished during my years at San Jose State. I also want to thank my coworker Dr. Tzu-Sai Soong who not only took his time to reviewed and advised me on my thesis, but gave me wise words of encouragement “You are young, you have many more years ahead of you so take your time and don’t stress. There is no rush, just look at me (72-years old).” Moving to a new city and getting through grad school would not have been easy if it wasn’t for the constant support of Diana Centeno, Jack Keovongsa, Laura Hodgens, Kelly McDonnell, Trent Smith and family, and many others from the Meteorology and Climate Science Department. Lastly, I want to thank my family for being understanding and supportive of my decisions to pursue higher education. My mother Elvira Flores, father Jose Flores, siblings Maura, Jose Jr., and Edgar. You guys are my backbone and continuous motivation. This work was part of a collaborative study funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Program/Public Health Program (grant# NNX09AV81G). v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………....viii LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………….ix 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………......1 1.1 Weather Conditions on Air Quality and Health Effects…………………...2 1.2 Health Effects of Wildfires………………………………………………...3 1.3 Wildfire Modeling………………………………………………………....5 1.4 Objective and Study Design…………………………………………….....6 2. Methods: Statistics and Data…...………………………………………………….7 2.1 Exposure Assessment……………………………………………………...7 2.2 Synoptic Weather Data…………………………………………………….9 2.3 Data Sources……………………………………………………………….9 2.3.1 EPA-AQS……………………………………………….....9 2.3.2 ARB-AQMIS…………………………………………….10 2.3.3 NOAA-NCEI…………………………………………….10 2.3.4 NLDAS-CDC WONDER………………………………..10 2.3.5 UW-Department of Atmospheric Science……………….11 2.3.6 OSHPD…………………………………………………..12 2.4 Population Data Collection.……………………………………………...12 2.5 Statistical Software……………………………………………………….13 vi 3. Methods: Modeling ……………………..…..…………………………………..13 3.1 Modeling Template………………………………………………………13 3.2 Model Domain…………………………………………………………...15 3.3 Fire Emissions……………………………………………………………16 3.4 Meteorology……………………………………………………………...17 3.5 Smoke Concentration and Trajectory Model…………………….............19 3.6 Development of PM2.5 Concentration Scenarios.……………………........20 4. Results and Discussion…………………………………………………………...22 4.1 2007-2009 Asthma Emergency Department Data Analysis………………22 4.2 Data Correlations………………………………………………………….24 4.3 Ground Observations for PM2.5..…………………………………………..30 4.4 Meteorological Conditions………………………………………………...31 4.5 GIS and CALPUFF Modeling…………………………………………….43 5. Conclusion and Future Work..…………………………………………………...58 6. References…………………………………………………………………….....61 7. APPENDIX A: MODELS AND ACRONYMS……………….…………...........67 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: NAAQS PM2.5 ……………………………………………………………….......5 Table 2: BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework pathway……………………………….14 Table 3: Average Asthma ED visits per ten million people by year……………………..23 Table 4: Los Angeles and Riverside correlation differences (2007-2009)……………….25 Table 5: Los Angeles and Riverside correlation differences (2007)……………………..26 Table 6: Los Angeles and Riverside correlation differences (9/1/0711/31/07)…………...27 viii LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 1: NASA/MODIS Terra Satellite passing over Southern California (10/23/07 1925 UTC) ……………………………………………………………..9 Fig. 2: Terrain elevations and land use over CALPUFF domain……………….................15 Fig. 3: Location of Land-Based weather stations and terrain elevation…………...............19 Fig. 4: Location of discrete receptors and terrain elevation……………………………...22 Fig. 5: Time series of Asthma ED visits Los Angeles and Riverside (2007-2009)...........23 Fig. 6: Time series of surface average PM2.5 Los Angeles and Riverside (2007-2009)……………………………………………………………………...24 Fig. 7: Scatter plot PM2.5 and asthma ED visits Los Angeles (9/1/07-11/31/07).…………28 Fig. 8: Scatter plot PM2.5 and asthma ED visits Riverside (9/1/07-11/31/07)….………….29 Fig. 9: Time series of surface average PM2.5 Los Angeles and Riverside (Oct. 2007)……………………………………………………………………….30 Fig. 10: Vertical temperature profile (10/23/07 1200 UTC)……………………………..31 Fig. 11: NCEP 500-millibar and surface analysis (10/23/07 1200 UTC) ………………...33 Fig. 12: NCEP 500-millibar and surface analysis (10/24/07 1200 UTC)………...........,,,,34 Fig. 13: NCEP 500-millibar and surface analysis (10/25/07 1200 UTC) …...…................35 Fig. 14: NCEP 500-millibar and surface analysis (10/26/07 1200 UTC) ………………...36 ix Fig. 15: Time series surface daily max temperature and dew point (Oct. 2007)…............38 Fig. 16: CALMET 10-meter wind vectors (10/20/2007 1900 UTC)……………………..39 Fig. 17: CALMET 10-meter wind vectors (10/21-10/23 1900 UTC) …………………….40 Fig. 18: CALMET 10-meter wind vectors (10/25-10/27 1900 UTC)……………….........42 Fig. 19: GIS wildfire footprints for Southern California (10/20-10/31)…………………..43 Fig. 20: NASA Terra Satellite over Southern California (10/23-10/24)………….............44 Fig. 21: NASA Terra Satellite over Southern California (10/25-10/26)……………….....45 Fig. 22: 1-hour averaged total emissions CALPUFF all schemes (10/23/07)…………….46 Fig. 23: 1-hour averaged total emissions CALPUFF all schemes (10/24/07)…………….47 Fig. 24: 1-hour averaged total emissions CALPUFF all schemes (10/25/07)…………….48 Fig. 25: 1-hour averaged total emissions CALPUFF all schemes (10/26/07)…………….49 Fig. 26: 24-hour averaged time series observed and modeled PM2.5 concentrations Anaheim (10/21/07-10/27/07) …………………………………………………...51 Fig. 27: 24-hour averaged time series observed and modeled PM2.5 concentrations Los Angeles (10/21/07-10/27/07) ………………………………………………..52 Fig. 28: 24-hour averaged time series observed and modeled PM2.5 concentrations Long Beach (10/21/07-10/27/07) ………………………………………………..53 Fig. 29: 24-hour averaged time series
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