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College Football Preview: the Mid-American Conference Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports August 19, 2015

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College Football Preview: the Mid-American Conference Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports August 19, 2015 College football preview: The Mid-American Conference Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports August 19, 2015 The theory that then-offensive coordinator Matt Campbell was the biggest key to Tim Beckman's success at Toledo is supported by the numbers: Toledo scored a school-record 549 points in 2012, Beckman's final season before moving to Illinois, and has gone 26-13 since promoting Campbell to the top spot at the tail end of that season. The idea that on-field success can be tied directly to recruiting success is supported by Western Michigan's rebound under third-year coach P.J. Fleck, who rode a pair of sterling signing classes to a seven-win leap in his second season with the Broncos. The asinine suggestion that great coaches don't exist off the Power Five landscape is disproved by Campbell, Fleck, Ball State's Pete Lembo and Buffalo's Lance Leipold — the initial threesome seemingly committed to their current stops for the long term, and the latter fresh to the Football Bowl Subdivision ranks after an historic run of success at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater. When it comes to the Mid-American Conference, these three indisputable truths about are joined by a fourth: When it comes to pure dominance of an FBS league, no program can match Northern Illinois' active five-year run in the MAC. The Huskies bring into this fall a 15-game road winning streak in league play, not counting appearances in the conference championship game. The program's last league road loss during the regular season came in a 48-41 loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 1, 2011. Toledo coach Matt Campbell congratulates preseason Toledo coach Matt Campbell congratulates preseason All-MAC player Trent Voss (43) for a big play. (Photo: Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports) NIU has also won 57 games during the last five seasons, which doesn't merely dwarf the rest of the MAC — and the rest of its Illinois-state brethren, by the way — but ranks fourth in the FBS, trailing Oregon (60 wins), Ala- bama (58) and Florida State (58). But only NIU and the Ducks have won at least 11 games in each of these five years. Consider another two details of note. For starters, the Huskies have been this dominant despite playing under three different coaches: Jerry Kill in 2010, Dave Doeren in 2011 and 2012, and Rod Carey since 2013. Then there's this: NIU is 57-13 overall but a whopping 41-4 against league foes — a ridiculous 91.1% winning percentage. That's not just insane; in this era of college football, that's unprecedented. Thanks for playing, everyone. NIU runs the MAC with an iron fist, leaving a very talented and well-coached group — Toledo, Ball State, Western Michigan and others — battling for second place. This shouldn't change in 2015. Predicted order of finish (WITH 1-128 RANKING) EAST 1. Bowling Green (No. 62) 2. Ohio (No. 83) 3. Akron (No. 86) 4. Buffalo (93) 5. Massachusetts (No. 109) 6. Kent State (No. 122) 7. Miami (Ohio) (No. 113) WEST 1. Northern Illinois (No. 39) 2. Toledo (No. 53) 3. Western Michigan (No. 55) 4. Ball State (No. 75) 5. Central Michigan (No. 111) 6. Eastern Michigan (No. 123) Trivia question (NO GOOGLING ALLOWED) By reading this sentence, you have agreed to a strict no-Googling rule in finding your answer. Three MAC coaches have reached the College Football Hall of Fame based solely on their work inside the confer- ence: Bowling Green's Doyt Perry, Central Michigan's Herb Deromedi and Sid Gillman of both Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati — all but one Gillman's seasons at Cincinnati came with the Bearcats in the conference — are in the Hall of Fame for coaching accomplishments as part of the MAC. On the other hand, seven members of the Hall of Fame at one point in their careers coached for a MAC program but earned their stripes elsewhere. Can you name those seven individuals who also served as a head coach at a non-MAC school on their way to the Hall of Fame? National conference rank WHERE DOES THE MAC RANK AMONG FBS CONFERENCES? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. American Athletic Conference 8. Conference USA 9. Mid-American Conference 10. Best case, worst case EACH TEAM'S RANGE OF POSSIBILITY Bowling Green Best case: Splitting its four non-conference games sets a great tone for the rest of the way, as Bowling Green goes 7-1 in conference play to defend its East Division championship. Worst case: The Falcons go 0-4 in non-conference play and lose to Ohio, Western Michigan, Toledo and Ball State to finish well outside of bowl play. Ohio Best case: Beating Bowling Green on Nov. 4 hands Ohio the tiebreaker it needs to win the division. Worst case: Ohio stands at 5-3 entering November, but four losses in a row — including one ugly home loss to Kent State — prevent the Bobcats from reaching bowl eligibility. Akron Best case: After a sluggish start, topping Louisiana-Lafayette on Sept. 26 propels Akron into six wins in its final eight games — which lifts the Zips to the top of the division and into the postseason. Worst case: Once again, injuries stymie Akron's quest toward notching six-plus wins and making a bowl game. That's painful, in more ways than one. Kent State coach Paul Haynes. Kent State coach Paul Haynes. (Photo: Geoff Burke, USA TODAY Sports) Massachusetts Best case: Eight wins and the East title, making UMass the surprise of the MAC and one of the best stories na- tionally. Worst case: Not yet, Minutemen. UMass makes clear strides but still tops out at four wins. Buffalo Best case: Everything clicks in Lance Leipold's debut season, as Buffalo's underrated talent level works in tandem with the new staff's philosophies to carry the Bulls to eight wins. Worst case: No one doubts the program's long-range potential, but Buffalo is a disappointment at 3-9. Kent State Best case: No one is expecting any miracles, but six wins and a top-three finish in the East Division could poten- tially be described as miraculous. Worst case: Three wins, with two coming against Delaware State and Miami (Ohio). Miami (Ohio) Best case: The long road back toward respectability continues, but getting to five wins in Chuck Martin's second season is a nice omen for the near future. Worst case: The RedHawks need a last-second field goal to beat Presbyterian in the opener, so it comes as no surprise when they lose every game from that point forward. Northern Illinois Best case: Sixth verse, same as the first, second, third, fourth and fifth. NIU wins the MAC West, beats Bowling Green in the conference title game and contends for an access-bowl bid. Worst case: The Huskies lose to Toledo and Western Michigan, not only failing to defend their conference crown but finishing tied for third in the division. Toledo Best case: Toledo goes 3-1 in non-conference play and sweeps through the MAC, finally defeating Northern Il- linois and entering the postseason holding a national ranking. Worst case: Northern Illinois 49, Toledo 17. Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck. Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck. (Photo: Reese Strickland, USA TODAY Sports) Western Michigan Best case: Riding a ridiculously talented roster, the Broncos go undefeated in MAC play and top Bowling Green in the title game. Worst case: As expected, drawing both Toledo and NIU away from home eliminates WMU's chances of taking another step forward. Additional losses to Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan makes this a disappointing season. Ball State Best case: As he's done many times in the past, Pete Lembo pushes all the right buttons in piloting Ball State to double-digit wins. Worst case: Another round of inconsistent quarterback play dooms Ball State's offense, which in turn places un- due strain on a defense lacking in one standout unit. Central Michigan Best case: Beating Kent State and Eastern Michigan to end the year lifts CMU to six wins and maintains the pro- gram's three-year streak of reaching bowl eligibility. Worst case: Two wins: Monmouth and Buffalo. Eastern Michigan Best case: EMU takes a nice step forward to four wins despite taking on what appears to be the most difficult schedule in the MAC. Worst case: Winless, though the Eagles come close to knocking off Army on Sept. 26. Preseason all-conference team THE BEST AT EACH POSITION Ohio defensive lineman Tarell Basham. Ohio defensive lineman Tarell Basham. (Photo: Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports) Offense QB: Drew Hare, Northern Illinois RB: Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan RB: Kareem Hunt, Toledo WR: Corey Davis, Western Michigan WR: Tajee Sharpe, UMass TE: Rodney Mills, UMass OL: Willie Beavers, Western Michigan OL: Andrew Ness, Northern Illinois OL: Nick Beamish, Central Michigan OL: Alex Huettel, Bowling Green OL: Mike McQueen, Ohio Defense DL: Pat O'Connor, Eastern Michigan DL: Orion Jones, Toledo DL: Tarell Basham, Ohio DL: Trent Voss, Toledo LB: Jovan Santos-Knox, UMass LB: Great Ibe, Eastern Michigan LB: Jartavis Brown, Akron CB: Paris Logan, Northern Illinois CB: Cheatham Norrils, Toledo S: Nate Holley, Kent State S: Marlon Moore, Northern Illinois Specialists K: Tyler Tate, Bowling Green P: Anthony Melchiori, Kent State RET: Devin Campbell, Buffalo Best units POSITION BY POSITION Quarterback: Northern Illinois. There may be better individual quarterbacks in the conference, or at least quar- terbacks set to put forth stronger passer numbers, but NIU's overall excellence at the position — going back several years — moves the Huskies to the front of the pack.
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