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Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 122 SEPTEMBER 2010

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 2

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 122 SERTEMBER 2010 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page Notices 3-5 Opinion 6 Winter 2010 7-19 Winter – in the media 20-45

Your Committee — until AGM President Kim Dirks [email protected] Immediate Past President Mike Revell [email protected] Auckland VP Jennifer Salmond [email protected] Wellington VP James Renwick [email protected] Christchurch VP Marwan Katurji [email protected] Dunedin VP vacant Secretary Sam Dean [email protected] Treasurer Alan Porteous [email protected] Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichol [email protected] Journal Editor Brian Giles [email protected] Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt [email protected] Wed Editor Peter Knudsen [email protected] Hydrological Society Liaison Charles Pearson [email protected] General Committee Jim Salinger [email protected] Stacey Dravitzki [email protected] Katrina Richards [email protected] Sally Garrett [email protected] Gareth Renowden [email protected] Cliff Revell [email protected] Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 3

In February 2011, the Meteorological Society of New Zealand and the Australian Meteorologi- cal and Oceanographic Society will be holding a joint conference in Wellington covering many aspects of meteorological and oceanographic research in the Australasian region. The meeting will include six special sessions each with a keynote address: Extreme weather in the Australasian region – from floods to droughts Impact and meteorology of the main climate drivers (ENSO, SAM, Monsoon) Using high resolution models to understand local meteorology Oceanography of the Australasian region Climate change in the Australasian region Impacts of natural catastrophes in the Australasian region However papers on any topic related to the Atmospheric Sciences (including composition) and Oceanography of the Australasian region will be considered. The meeting will be held at the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa a superb location right on the waterfront. The conference begins on Wednesday February 9 with keynote addresses and sessions on Extreme weather and the main climate drivers. At the completion of talks in the evening there will be an icebreaker and opportunity to view posters. On day 2 there will be keynote addresses and sessions on Oceanography and the use of high resolution modelling to understand local weather systems. In the afternoon, busses will leave Te Papa about 4pm to take participants along the rugged south coast of Wellington to Pencarrow Homestead where the conference dinner will be held. Day 3 will have keynote addresses and sessions on Climate change and Disaster planning. Proceedings will end at about 5pm on Fri- day February 11. Onsite conference registration will open at 8.00 am on Wednesday February 9, in the Rangi- maire rooms, level 3, Te Papa. An Information desk will be staffed during coffee and lunch breaks throughout the conference. Morning and afternoon tea and lunches will all be provided in Te Papa’s Icon room which has access to a pleasant waterfront balcony. Abstract Deadline: October 15, 2010 Paper acceptance notification: November 8, 2010 Early Bird Registration Deadline: November 15, 2010 Last day for registration refunds: January 9, 2011 Registration pick up from 8am: February 9, 2011 EXTREME WEATHER 2011 conference: February 9 -11, 2011, Te Papa, Wellington http://www.cvent.com/EVENTS/Info/Summary.aspx?e=a52856ef-d677-49c4-a5af-93143630ce2f

Dear colleagues, You are cordially invited to participate in next year's joint AMOS / MetSoc NZ Annual Confer- ence on 9-11 February in Wellington, NZ. We plan to host a session on atmospheric chemistry and composition and invite abstracts on all aspects of atmospheric gas phase chemistry and composition, including tropospheric and stratospheric ozone chemistry, greenhouse gases, and associated constituents (including aerosols) of relevance to climate or air quality. Submissions dealing with observational or modelling data are welcome. New models and improved computing capacity now permit ex- ploration of aspects of atmospheric chemistry and climate that would have previously been

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 4 considered intractable; submissions exploring these new possibilities are encouraged. New observational platforms and dedicated campaigns reveal in more detail insights into the complex web of chemical interactions within the atmosphere and at the atmosphere-land and atmosphere-ocean boundaries; we encourage submissions on recent advances in these fields. While the title of the conference is “Extreme Weather” this does not preclude other topics. The conference organisers will create a session on a topic if enough abstracts in a particular field are received. The deadline for submission of abstracts is 15 October, 2010. For more information see http://www.extremeweather.co.nz We are looking forward to your active participation in this conference. Roger Dargaville (U. Melbourne / CSIRO) Olaf Morgenstern (NIWA)

Projected surface ozone change (parts per billion by volume) in 2100, relative to the present-day, for the month of July. Reproduced from Zeng et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09805, 2010. Copyright 2010 AGU.

"Water: The Blue Gold: Annual Conference of the New Zealand Hydrological Society Dunedin 6 -10 December 2010 www.nzhsconference.co.nz

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 5 NIWA State of the Climate report for 2008/09 published This report describes month-to-month and seasonal-scale variability in New Zealand climate over the two years 2008 and 2009. It is the first in a series of documents to be published every two to three years describing recent climate fluctuations in New Zealand, and how they relate to what’s going on at broader scales in the climate system, across the Southern Hemisphere and the Globe. The report begins with a description of the large-scale climate patterns, their influence on New Zea- land climate, and their recent variations. It then discusses rainfall patterns and drought occurrence, followed by temperature variations and frost occurrence. There is a section on extremes and significant weather events over the past two years, and a discussion of the state of snow and ice storage in the Southern Alps. The report ends with a summary of climate-related research being carried out at NIWA. There are a series of Appendices that illustrate observed climate through 2008 and 2009. Click here to view the report in full. (http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/publications ) For any information regarding this report please contact: James Renwick, Principal Scientist, Climate, [email protected]

Third Met Soc photo competition. Deadline is end of December SNAP WHAT YOU SEE. Theme is Sky colour. Entry is open to all except the judges. Note date and place of the image. There is no entry fee. No more than ten entries accepted per entrant. Email it to bobmcdavitt at hotmail dot com or post to Met Soc competition, unit 5, 53 Hamilton Road, Herne Bay Auckland 1011".

Have fun and keep checking to see the new entries as they arrive! Either on our web site http://rsnz.metsoc.org Or Follow us on TWITTER http://twitter.com/metsociety Or on FACEBOOK http://www.facebook.com/pages/NZ-MetSociety/121158784601154 Image Content: Image must be a true reproduction of what the viewer could see in a Single frame and not blended, merged, modified or enhanced in any way. Cropping is allowed. If any identifiable people appear in the photos their Written permission to submit must be included. Nothing il- legal. Copyrights. In return for entering your image for consideration, Met Society is permitted in perpetuity to use your image (adequately acknowledged) on the http://rsnz.metsoc.org web site and facebook page or in its newsletter. All other rights remain with the contributor. Judging and winners announcement. Images will be voted on by a panel of judges consisting of our Photo subcommittee plus an in- dependent expert with a professional eye. Winners are to be announced at Met Society conference in Feb 2011 in Wellington, on our web sites and in our March 2011 newsletter Prizes First prizes is an 8 gig memory chip + free subscription to MetSociety (~$110), Second prize is a 4 gig memory chip + free subscription to MetSociety (~$75), Third prize is a 2 gig memory chip + free subscription to MetSociety (~$55). All the best. Bob McDavitt, for Met Society photo competition

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 6

Some light hearted reading and journalistic license about a meteorologist with a persecution complex (it really isn’t a job for the faint-hearted)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 7 Winter 2010 Sunny & dry in southwest; mild & wet for northeast Winter Climate Summary: the highlights

Rainfall: Very wet in Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Waikato, parts of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay, Marlborough, coastal Canterbury and parts of Otago. Ex- tremely dry in the southwest of the South Island.

Sunshine: Very sunny in the south and west of the South Island; extremely cloudy for Christchurch, north Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa, and Taranaki.

Temperatures: A mild winter in the north and east of the North Island, as well as for the north and west of the South Island. Below average winter temperatures for parts of eastern Otago.

Winter (June – August) 2010 was characterised by more easterly winds than usual over southern and central districts. June was extremely wet except for the southwest of the country. July was dry and very sunny in western areas. August was warm, cloudy, and very wet for all regions except Fiordland and Southland.

The easterly winds of winter resulted in wet conditions in the northeast of both islands, but below normal rainfall in the southwest of New Zealand. It was extremely wet in Bay of Plenty, Marlborough and north Canterbury, with well above normal winter rainfalls (more than 150 percent of normal).Te Puke and Blen- heim observed their highest winter rainfall totals on record. Winter rainfalls were above normal (between 120 and 150 percent of normal) in Waikato and Coromandel, parts of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay, coastal south Canter- bury and in parts of Otago.

In contrast, winter rainfalls were below normal (between 50 and 75 percent of normal) in Fiordland and Southland. Elsewhere, winter rains were near normal (between 80 and 120 percent of normal).

It was an extremely sunny winter in the southwest. Well above normal sunshine totals were recorded (more than 125 percent of normal) in the Grey district, Westland, Fiordland, Southland and Otago. Greymouth, Invercargill and Balclu- tha experienced their highest-equal winter sunshine totals. Sunshine hours were above normal (between 110 and 125 percent of normal) in Northland, Auckland, Waikato and the Ruapehu district. In comparison, it was extremely cloudy in eastern and inland areas of the South Island north of about Banks Peninsula, as well as for Wellington, Wairarapa and Taranaki. Martinborough and Blenheim reported their lowest-equal winter sunshine totals on record. Elsewhere, sunshine hours were near normal.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 8

Winter temperatures were above average (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C above average) in parts of the north and east of the North Island, in Nelson, along the West Coast and in Fiordland. Below average winter temperatures (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C below average) were observed for parts of eastern Otago. In other regions, winter temperatures were close to average (within 0.5°C of seasonal average). The New Zealand national average temperature was 8.7°C (0.5°C above the 1971-2000 winter average).

Further Highlights: The highest temperature was 22.2°C, recorded at Waipara on June 19th (a near- record at this site for winter). The lowest temperature was -12.6°C, recorded at Lake Tekapo on August 10th (not a record). The highest 1-day rainfall was 255 mm recorded at North Egmont on August 13th (not a record). The highest wind gust was 141 km/hr, recorded at Cape Turnagain on July 27th (not a record). Of the six main centres, Auckland was the warmest, Christchurch the coolest and cloudiest, Tauranga was the wettest but also the sunniest, and Dunedin the dri- est.

For further information, please contact: Ms Georgina Griffiths – Climate Scientist– NIWA National Climate Centre, Auck- land Dr Andrew Tait – Climate Scientist– NIWA National Climate Centre, Wellington Michele Hollis, NIWA Communications Manager

NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ - WINTER 2010

The unsettled weather that hit many areas of NZ late in May set the pattern for this winter, which saw many low pressure systems cross the country. This resulted wetter than normal conditions in eastern areas and the north of the North Island with a number of significant rain events. By contrast it was drier and sun- nier than normal on the South Island West Coast.

JUNE 1st - Heavy rain in north of North Island; heaviest falls in eastern Bay of Plenty, resulting in flooding and slips. Whakatane is worst affected, with a new June record of 170mm there (90mm falling in one hour) and 50 people evacuated from their homes. Flooding also affects Mt Maunganui (some streets under 30cm of water), Whitianga, and several Auckland suburbs. 3rd - Only 3C maximum in Alexandra.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 9 4th - SH1 closed by a slip at Weld Pass (south of Blenheim), as a result of the several weeks of wet weather. 5th-9th - Deep low crosses NZ, followed by cold southerly outbreak. (see details below) 11th - Mild 18C maximum in Kaikoura. 12th - Cold southerlies move onto lower South Island later in day, with snow down to low levels at night. 13th - Very cold south to southwest flow over South Island, with snow to low levels in east and South, reaching sea-level in Southland. Cold southerly change spreading onto North Island from later in day, with some snow on the high country. Desert Road closed in evening. 14th - Cold southwesterly flow over NZ, with snow showers on high country. 15th - Cold showery southerlies in east from Banks Peninsula northwards and in central North Island, with snow falling above about 500-600m. Only 2C maximum in Queenstown. 17th - Freezing fog in some areas of Central Otago. -5C overnight minimum in Alexandra; only 3C maximum in Wanaka. Only 4C maximum in Timaru, as high cloud follows a frost. (despite there being a mild northerly airstream over the South Island) 19th - Warm northwesterly flow in east of the South Island, with maximums reaching 20C in Dunedin, Oamaru, and at Christchurch Airport. 20th - Active cold front crosses North Island, with a period of heavy rain in some northern and western areas. Prior to the front, warm northerlies result in unusually high maximums of 19C in Whangarei and Whanganui, as well as 17-18C in other northern North Island places. 21st - A cold southwest flow brings snow to South Island high country. 22nd - Only 5C maximum at Milford Sound, under cloud and rain. Cold southerlies spread over South Island from later in the day, with snow to low levels in some inland areas. 23rd - Low develops to northwest of South Island, with cold southeasterly flow over the island. Snow falls to low levels in many inland areas, including Buller and Murchison. Heaviest falls in and around Queenstown. Brief early morning snow also to low levels on Christchurch's Port Hills, before being washed away by rain. 24th - Some heavy rain in North Canterbury, resulting in minor flooding and slips. 25th - An area of heavy rain affects the South Auckland, Coromandel, Hauraki, and western Bay of Plenty areas. Slips and flooding close SH75 on Coro- mandel Peninsula. Some heavy rain also about the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay ranges, with a slip disrupting travel on the Napier-Taupo highway. 26th - Extensive fog in Auckland disrupts airport operations. 27th - Persistent rain results in a large slip closing SH75 near Little River, Banks Peninsula in afternoon (road cleared next morning), with several smaller slips on the highway. 27th-30th - Freezing fogs in Central Otago. 0C maximum in Alexandra on 27th,

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 10 with 1C maximums there on the following three days.

JULY 2nd - Motueka records a July record high of 18C under a light west to southwest flow. 4th-9th - Deep low crosses northern areas, with heavy rain in east of North Is- land. (see details below) 10th-14th - Severe frosts in many areas of both islands. Records lows broken include -7C in Turangi (12th), -6C in Taumaranui (12th), and -4C in Te Kuiti. Lowest recorded temperature in NZ during period was -9C in Han- mer (12th), though not a record. By the 14th, enough ice has formed on the Waikaia Ice Rink (northern Southland) for recreational skating. 15th - Thick early morning fog affects commuter travel in Timaru. 16th - Thunderstorms in eastern Northland. 19th - Extensive fog in and around Christchurch, disrupting airport operations. 21st - Overnight snow about Canterbury high country, including Arthurs and Porters Passes. Only 3C maximum in Alexandra. Some heavy falls of rain in north of North Island, eg 50mm at Kumeu. 22nd - Unseasonable 18C maximum in Westport. 17-18C maximums from Hamilton northwards. 23rd/24th - Heavy rain in east from North Canterbury to Wairarapa, with some flooding and slips in Marlborough and southern Wairarapa. Rain also causes some surface flooding in North Otago; falls not heavy but ground is already saturated from earlier (especially late May) rainfall and floods eas- ily. Thunderstorms in north of North Island on 23rd. 25th - St Arnaud records a July record maximum of 14C. 26th - Some thunderstorms in north of North Island. 27th - Snow showers on some South Island high country areas. 28th - Overnight snow showers on central North Island high country. 29th - Unseasonably warm in parts of Northland, with Kaikohe recording a new July record maximum of 19C. 31st - Heavy rain developing on South Island West Coast, eg 140mm at Franz Josef, 123mm at Okarito, and 76mm in Hokitika.

AUGUST 1st - Heavy rain on South Island West Coast; easing later, but then spreading to central NZ. Some slips and flooding about Wellington. Northwesterly gales in exposed eastern areas from Canterbury to Wairarapa and also in Nelson area and about Cook Strait. (130 kph gust recorded on Stephens Island) 2nd - Some heavy rain in eastern Bay of Plenty. Unseasonable 21C maximum in Napier. Unusually war overnight in several places, with August minimums broken in Kaikohe (15C) and Kaikoura. (11C) 3rd - Extensive fog in many areas of the country. In Auckland, the fog (which disrupts airport operations) is followed by rain. Heavy rain on Coromandel

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 11 Peninsula. 4th - Heavy rain and gales lash Northland, with flooding and slips closing several roads and schools. Some heavy falls also in southwest of North Island (eg 30mm in Wanganui); a landslip in Karori, Wellington forces residents to evacuate one house. 5th - Evening downburst winds (reported by media as a 'twister') cause damage to a property at Hairini, near Tauranga. 7th - Heavy rain causes surface flooding in parts of South Canterbury and North Otago, affecting SH1 and closing several minor roads in the area. 58mm recorded at Woodbury, near Geraldine. Snow lowering to about 400m in Central Otago. 8th - Strong, cold southerly flow covers most of South Island, with snow to about 300m inland. Some heavy rain and snow in Canterbury, with slips and surface flooding in places. The Lindis Pass is closed in morning, while heavy snow brings down power lines in the Burkes Pass area. Two Banks Peninsula roads are closed at night by slips, and SH1 is affected by a slip in the Greta Valley. Some thunder and hail around Auckland. 9th - Cold southerly flow flow brings snow down to about 300m in Canterbury and eastern Otago (affecting Dunedin's highest suburbs), and 600m in central North Island, closing Desert Road for a time. Only 6C maximum in Mas- terton, and 8C in Levin. 10th - Heavy frosts in many areas in wake of departing southerly outbreak. - 12C minimum at Tekapo, rising to only 0C there during the day. (township is still under a thick blanket of snow) 12th-15th - Unsettled period, including heavy rain and flooding in eastern Bay of Plenty. (see details below) 17th - Warm northwesterlies push maximums up to 21C in Napier, and 20C in Hastings and Whangarei. 18th - Fresh snow on South Island high country. Some briefly heavy rain in parts of Canterbury. 19th - Some thunder and hail in north of North Island. 22nd - Some hail in Northland. 23rd - Christchurch Airport disrupted by fog in morning. Scattered thunderstorms and hail in several areas, eg South Wairarapa (15mm hail reported) and North Canterbury. 24th - Snow in central North Island in morning, down to level of Desert Road. 25th - Locally torrential rain causes some slips and flooding on Waiheke Is- land. 28th - Thunderstorms in morning in Nelson, Marlborough, western areas from Taranaki to Waikato, and also in parts of inland South Canterbury. (heavy rain for a time in Fairlie) Warm 20C maximums in Napier, Whangarei, and Kerikeri. 29th - Thunderstorms in northern and central NZ. Heavy hail around Tau- ranga. 30th/31st - Some heavy rain in east of North Island, mainly about the ranges

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 12 in a moist south to southeast flow. Some heavy overnight rain (on 30th) closes a number of roads in North Otago as a moist southeasterly flow affects the east of the South Island. Fresh snow on Canterbury high country on 30th. By contrast, fine and mild on South Island West Coast on both days with 17C maximums in many places, and 18C in Haast on 30th.

MAJOR EVENTS 5th-9th June - Deep low crosses NZ, followed by cold southerly outbreak.

A large and deep depression crossed NZ during this period, resulting in a period of stormy weather in many areas. This was followed by a cold southerly outbreak, with snow to quite low levels in some eastern areas.

On the 5th, a deep low in the northwestern Tasman Sea moved towards NZ, while an anticyclone moved away to the east. As a north to northeast flow increased over the country, rain set in over northern and western areas by late in the day.

During the 6th, the low had become complex, with the main centre to the northwest of the South Island and another over Canterbury. Heavy rain affected northern and western areas of both islands, with North Egmont recording an impres- sive total of 198mm. Even relatively sheltered Blenheim recording a wet 71mm. Snow fell in parts of Central Otago due to undercutting cold air, with precipitation totals including 25mm in Ranfurly, 27mm in Alexandra, and 30mm in Crom- well, the Alexandra total being its highest for June since records began at that site in 1983.

On the next day, the low centred over Canterbury moved to the east and deepened, while the northern low centre remained to the northwest of the South Is- land though was now weaker. Rain continued in many northern and western areas, with slips and flooding in places as a result of a second day of wet weather. Two houses in the Wellington suburb had to be evacuated due to a slip. A strong, cold southerly flow covered most of the South Island, with heavy rain in parts of Canterbury causing some surface flooding and slips. Snow fell on the high country, closing the Lindis Pass.

Later in the day, further disturbances moved in from the south, resulting in even colder air moving onto the lower South Island, with snow levels lowering. By the 8th, low pressure was lying to the east of NZ, with a very cold southerly flow spreading over the whole country. This brought snow to quite low levels in the east of the South Island, and also the southern hills of the North Island. The Ri- mutaka Hill Road was closed briefly, while there were reports of brief snow in some higher Wellington hill suburbs. Snow in the central North Island also closed the Desert Road.

The southerly flow died out on the 9th, with a weak ridge bringing fine weather

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 13 to most areas. Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 5th June to midday NZST 9th June in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 14 4th-9th July - Deep low crosses northern areas, with heavy rain and flooding in east of North Island.

A deep low crossed to the north of the North Island and off to the east during this period, resulting in a period of heavy rain in the east of the island which brought serious flooding to the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay areas.

A low which had formed in the Tasman Sea the day before, deepened signifi- cantly during the 4th as it moved to the northwest of the North Island, with a strong east to northeast flow over the northern areas. Heavy rain developed in Northland by later in the day.

During the next two day, the low moved only very slowly over the seas to the north and northeast of the North Island, with a strong east to southeast flow over most of the island. This resulted in heavy rain in areas from Northland to Gis- borne, spreading to Hawkes Bay on the 6th. In Northland, the heavy rain caused slips and flooding around Whangarei, but also filled the city's reservoir. On the Coromandel Peninsula, roads were closed and six people had to be rescued after they were stranded in their cars in the Kauaerenga Valley near Thames.

However, the areas worst affected by the storm were in the east of the North Is- land, with very heavy rain in the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay ranges resulting in major flooding and slips. The heavy rain continued in these eastern areas, while clearing from the northern North island on the 7th, as the low moved further south. The slips blocked SH2 between Napier and Wairoa and many minor roads, and downed power-lines cut electricity to many small communities.

Meanwhile, the South Island remained settled during these days, though cold. (Alexandra recorded icy -1C maximums on the 6th and 7th, while Wanaka only reached -2C on the 7th) However, on the 8th, as low pressure remained to the east of the North Island, disturbances spread from the south, allowing a cold southerly flow to cover NZ during the 8th and 9th, with snow showers on the high country. In Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, the rain gradually eased to showers, but the continuing wet weather slowed recovery from the storm.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 4th July to midday NZST 9th July in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 15

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 16

12th-15th August - Unsettled period, including heavy rain and flooding in eastern Bay of Plenty. An active low pressure system, preceded by a strong northerly flow, spawned a low pressure system which brought unsettled conditions to many areas, most notably more severe flooding in the eastern Bay of Plenty.

During the 12th, a large and complex low pressure system moved into the Tas- man Sea, with a strengthening northerly flow over NZ. Winds reached severe gale force in alpine areas of the South Island, resulting in several hundred skiers being trapped on Mt Hutt that night. (wind driven snow reduced visibility on the access road to near zero) Heavy rain affected northern and western areas of South island, with 91mm recorded in Takaka.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 17 The winds moderated over the South Island on the 13th (allowing the trapped skiers to leave the mountain) as the eastern edge of the low pressure moved onto the South Island, but a front associated with the low moved onto northern and central areas.

The front became slow-moving over the North Island on the 14th, with a very moist northerly flow in front of it giving heavy rain to some northern areas. The eastern Bay of Plenty was especially hard hit, with torrential falls resulting in severe flooding and slips. Several families were evacuated in Whakatane due to threat of flooding, while many roads in the area were closed. Opotiki was isolated, with the three highways connecting the town all closed by slips and flooding.

On the 15th, another low had developed and was lying over the northeast of the North Island, but the heavy rain eased in the eastern Bay of Plenty. In the mean- time sunshine and a light easterly flow resulted in unseasonable mild temperatures in the northwest of the South Island with August records broken in Reefton (18C) and Motueka. (a summery 22C)

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 12th August to midday NZST 15th Au- gust in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 18

Compiled and written by Ben Tichborne

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 19

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH - WINTER 2010

JUNE The cloudier and wetter conditions that prevailed during the latter half of May continued through June, as more troughs and lows crossed NZ. The wettest day was on the 7th, which was combined with southerlies reaching gale force. The cloud cover combined with onshore airflows resulted in below normal daytime temperatures, making the month feel like a cold one. However, nights were milder than average, due to only a few spells of fine, frosty weather. The coldest spells in southerlies occurred on the 8th and 14th, with some hail and sleet in the city and a light dusting of snow on the Port Hills above about 250- 300m. Snow was also reported to low levels on some of the hills briefly during the early morning of the 23rd, but was soon washed away by rain.

JULY This month was an improvement on June, with some periods of fine, frosty weather alternating with dull, damp spells. Rainfall and sunshine were close to normal, with rain events generally light. (though heavy falls affected North Canterbury on the 23rd) Cold, showery southerlies occurred on the 8th-9th, with snow on higher Banks Pen- insula hills and flurries reported as low as 200m in North Canterbury on the 9th.

AUGUST A number of low pressure systems and onshore airflows made this a cloudier than normal month, with above normal rainfall. However, much of the rain fell on the 8th and 9th, with a deep low to the east and strong, cold southerly flow affected the area. Heavy falls caused some disruption on Banks Peninsula, where snow lowered to about 400m by the 9th, with some hail and sleet at lower levels in both the city and peninsula. The only other day of note was the 23rd, when (following morning fog in the city) instability in a weak southerly resulted in a few thunderstorms tot he north of the city.

Ben Tichborne

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 20

Flooding in Coromandel, Auckland Tuesday June 01, 2010 Newstalk ZB/ONE News

NZPA, A property in Mt. Roskill. A heavy downpour of rain across Auckland and the Coromandel has caused flooding in several homes and businesses. The Fire Service has been called to flooded buildings throughout Auckland, including Mt Roskill, Otahuhu, Penrose and One Tree Hill. (abridged)

Flash flooding... and more rain to come Northern Advocate 2nd June 2010 http://www.northernadvocate.co.nz/local/news/flash-flooding- and-more-rain-to-come/3915180/

Two weeks ago Northland was in the grip of its worst drought for half a century. But yesterday surface flooding, blocked drains and swollen streams were the big concerns as heavy rain lashed the region. Torrential rain hit Northland as a low weather pattern swept from over the Tasman Sea and down the country. The low dropped up to 60mm of rain on parts of the region in the 24 hours to midday yesterday, causing minor surface flooding, streams to swell and a few road accidents as motorists skidded on the slippery surface. In the 24 hours to noon yesterday 60.5mm of rain was recorded at Marsden Pt, 59mm at Glen- bervie, 53mm in the hills east of Kaeo, 52.5mm north of Kawakawa, 51.5mm at Ngunguru's northern hills, 48.5mm at Mangawhai and Hikurangi Swamp, 47mm at Whangarei City, 44.5mm at Oakura Bay, 39mm at Opua, 37mm at Ohaeawai, 25mm at Awaroa, Maungaturoto and Pouto Pt and 20mm at Paparoa. Yesterday's deluge was the third since the drought - Northland's worst for almost half a century - broke two weeks ago. (Abridged).

Clean-up underway in rain-soaked BOP 3 news WED, 02 JUN 2010 http://www.3news.co.nz/Clean-up-underway-in-rain-soaked-BOP/ tabid/423/articleID/158800/Default.aspx

Clean-up operations are underway in the storm -battered eastern Bay of Plenty after a deluge of torrential rain flooded roads and forced residents to evacuate their homes yesterday. Emergency services were inundated with calls for assistance last night, many from Whakatane residents seeking assistance to a welfare centre set up at the War Memorial Hall. Eastern Bay of Plenty Civil Defence controller Diane Turner said 75 people were evacuated to the centre.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 21 Firefighters were yesterday besieged with calls for help from flooding as rain battered first Auckland, then the Coromandel Peninsula before moving across the Bay of Plenty. More than 20 homes and a number of businesses in Auckland and the Coromandel were flooded. (Abridged).

Flooding closes SH 45, weather warnings for Taranaki TV3 Sun, 06 Jun 2010 http://www.3news.co.nz/Flooding-closes-SH-45-weather-warnings-for-Taranaki-/tabid/423/articleID/159498/ Default.aspx

Major flooding has closed State Highway 45 in Taranaki. The MetService is predicting another 140mm of rain to fall on Mr Taranaki from 9am this morning till lunchtime tomorrow. The region is expected to get its heaviest rainfall this afternoon and into the evening. (Abridged)

Landslide leaves Wellington couple temporarily homeless Mon, 07 Jun 2010. 3 News By Emma Jolliff http://www.3news.co.nz/Landslide-leaves-Wellington-couple- temporarily-homeless/tabid/423/articleID/159623/Default.aspx

A huge chunk of the Randal's property has slipped away onto the road below A Wellington couple has been forced to leave their home after heavy rain caused a landslide, and left their house teetering above the slip. Suze Randal says she and her husband knew something didn't look right when they were driving home late yesterday afternoon. A huge chunk of her property and council reserve has slipped away onto the road below. In pouring rain today contractors spent hours clearing tonnes of dirt from the road below. The Met Service says more than 24 millimetres of rain fell in Wellington in the 24 hours before the slip that was on top of almost a fortnight of wet weather.(Abridged)

Emergency services on alert By LEIGHTON KEITH - Taranaki Daily News 7 June 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/3783082/ Emergency-services-on-alert

JONATHAN CAMERON/Taranaki Daily News KNEE DEEP: The rain was too much for a cul- vert under the main road at Rahotu during the height of yesterday's downpour. A deluge early yesterday caused coastal Taranaki streams to burst their banks, turned roads into rivers and left low-lying farms cov-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 22 ered in water. More than 110mm of rain fell on the slopes of Mt Taranaki from 11pm on Saturday until 5pm yesterday, causing havoc as it flowed downstream. A MetService heavy rain warning predicted 50mm to 90mm of rain to fall about the ranges with 40mm expected to fall in low-lying areas between 9pm yesterday to noon today. There could also be thunderstorms overnight. The area between Warea and Opunake bore the brunt of the flooding with State Highway 45 cut in places as torrents of brown, muddy water up to a metre deep made it impassable. Wataroa Rd, Pungarehu, farmer Nicole Stevenson said culverts on the farm were all overflowing and they lost 80 bales of hay when the barn flooded. "I just can't believe it. I've never seen it like this at all," Miss Stevenson said. Terry Simpson, who has farmed in the area all his life, said he'd never seen flooding that bad before. "It is pretty serious, the old weather seems to be getting more extreme in the last five years," he said. (Abridged)

Storm hits Canterbury PAUL GORMAN, DAVID WILLIAMS and KAMALA HAYMAN The Press 8 June 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/3784619/Storm-batters-sinks-boats

Sunken vessel at Lyttelton Marina "Humungous" waves sank two boats in Lyttelton Harbour yesterday, almost 10 years after a violent storm smashed the same ill-fated marina and claimed more than 30 boats. Magazine Bay Berth Holders' Association chairman David Grant said a fishing launch and a ferro-cement yacht sank yesterday afternoon in conditions "as bad as it gets". Wind gusts of up to 111kmh caused two-metre-high waves, witnesses said. The Magazine Bay marina disintegrated in October 2000 during a storm that destroyed most of Canterbury's keeler racing fleet. Plans for a multimillion-dollar, 450-berth marina at the site, complete with apartments, is being reassessed by Auckland-based Covington Group Holdings. Christchurch City councillor Gail Sheriff, who headed the working party, said a breakwater had not been built because "there hasn't been any money". MetService forecaster Gerard Barrow said the strongest gust at Lyttelton Harbour yesterday was 111kmh at 4pm.

Hail, sleet and snow are falling around Canterbury this morning as a sub-Antarctic airstream keeps temperatures hovering a couple of degrees above freezing. Heavy snow showers are blowing through Hanmer Springs while hail and sleet continues peppering Christchurch and other parts of the region. Snow has settled above 300m on the Port Hills with small hail coating the ground at lower levels in some city suburbs. MetService forecaster Gerard Barrow said while there would be sunny spells between the wintry showers, temperatures were unlikely to rise by more than two or three degress today. Wintry showers should ease by tonight in most places, he said.

The wild weather has caused a large slip on State Highway Seven near Reefton, reducing traffic to one lane. The slip is about 2km south of Reefton on the Reefton-Springs Junction

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 23 Rd. About 3000 homes in Akaroa, Little River, Duvauchelles and other townships lost power for nearly two hours yesterday afternoon when both high-capacity lines serving Banks Peninsula failed at the same time. The cold snap saw power demand surge to 600 megawatts at 6pm yesterday, the level at which water-heating controls are triggered. Sutton said it was surprising to see demand on a public holiday 20 per cent higher than on Saturday, when more businesses were operating. (Abridged)

Snow, rain hit country's roads By DAVE BURGESS -The Dominion Post 8 June 2010-07-22 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3784563/ Downpours-expected-to-hit-sodden-country

Snow at Tekapo State Highway 2 over the Rimutaka Hill is closed, with heavy snow falling in the lower North Island this evening. Wet and wintery conditions are affecting roads across the country with the MetService issuing a severe weather warning and police asking drivers to exercise caution. Snow is being reported in the Wellington suburb of Newlands as freezing temperatures lash the city. The Desert road in the central North Island was closed this morning and reopened around midday. There were also reports of sleet in the Wel- lington suburb of Karori. A heavy snow warning has been issued for the central North Island high country north of Taihape - including Tongariro National Park and the Kaimanawa and Kaweka Ranges. MetService has issued a severe weather warning for parts of the North Island as a strong and cold southerly flow develops and a large low pressure system moves east over the central and northern parts of the country. Snow was falling above 600m in the central North Island high country, and heavy rain was falling in parts of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne. "We've got these cold southerlies that were pounding on the South Island, they've moved to Wellington now and there's quite a good bit of southerly going up through the bottom half of the North Island," said MetService duty forecaster Jeff Sanders. And in the south the AA is reporting many roads in the Waitaki district have again been hit by flooding and are closed. Drivers are being asked to be careful as fallen trees near Oamaru and ice on the roads in Nelson, Otago and the Central South Island complicate driving conditions.

Meanwhile, parts of the country left sodden by weeks of rain are sliding away, blocking roads and forcing residents to flee their homes. In the Tasman district, police say a large slip on SH7, the Reefton - Springs Junction road, has reduced the road to one lane about 2km south of Reefton. A slip has blocked lanes on the road to Aramoana from Dunedin. Inspector Marty Parker, of police central communications, said north of Wellington both lanes of the Paekakariki Hill Road, two kilometres north of Battle Hill, were blocked after a slip shortly before 5pm yesterday. Rocks the size of soccer balls were strewn over the Takaka Hill Road during a stormy Sunday night across the top of the South Island, with up to 83 millimetres of rain recorded in some ar-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 24 eas. State Highway 35 was blocked near Gisborne after a massive landslide about 5.30pm on Sun- day. A large slip of about 100 cubic metres of dirt blocked one lane near Waioeka Gorge in Opotiki for most of yesterday, and a slip in Wharerata Gorge, south of Gisborne, covered the southbound lane. The coastal highway between Okato and Rahotu, west of Mt Taranaki, SH45, was reopened yesterday after flooding that reached halfway up car doors had receded. - with MICHAEL FOX, Stuff.co.nz, and KAMALA HAYMAN, The Press (abridged)

Cold snap hits New Zealand Wednesday June 09, 2010 Newstalk ZB http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/cold-snap- hits-new-zealand-3582251?ref=rss

Weather forecasters have confirmed what we've all been feeling this morning - it's cold. The biggest freeze officially this morning was at the Tara Hills in Central Otago at minus five - but WeatherWatch experts believe nearby areas dropped as low as minus eight. Other areas to dip below zero are Dunedin, Lumsden, Gore, Blenheim, Timaru and Queenstown. (Abridged)

Icy weather closes Desert Road again NZPA 09/06/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3789956/Icy-weather-closes-Desert-Road-again

Cars waiting as snow closes the Lindis Pass Road, Central Otago The Desert Road is closed due to snow and ice while drivers on the Rimutaka Hill Road near Wellington are advised to be careful because of poor visibility. Snow showers overnight have left the road slippery and icy and more snow showers are likely on both roads today. MetService forecaster Gerard Barrow said any other North Island roads above 500 metres may experience snow showers and drivers needed to be careful. He said drivers in the South Island needed to be wary of icy conditions. A snowfall warning has been issued for the Lewis Pass in the South Island though conditions there were expected to clear today. (Abridged)

Nice rain, but drought effects linger Nathan Crombie 9th June 2010 Wairarapa Times age

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 25 http://www.times-age.co.nz/local/news/nice-rain-but-drought-effects-linger/3915532/

WATER WATER EVERYWHERE: Fourth generation Gladstone farmer Andrew Rayner walks through a sodden paddock yesterday at his Wahi Atahua farm. A week of steady rain has failed to ease the lot of some Wairarapa coastal farmers strug- gling through their fourth year of official drought . Southerly rain and falling temperatures drenched and chilled parts of Waira- rapa over the long weekend, capping eight days of rain dumps that fell almost region- wide. MetService forecaster Marylin Avery said yesterday that 30mm of rain was recorded in Masterton, 29mm in Martinborough, 18mm at Ngawi and 11mm at Castlepoint since Sun- day. The Minister of Agriculture, David Carter, a week ago declared a drought area in the east coast of Wairarapa, which joined a list of other regions enduring the same status throughout New Zealand from Kaipara in the north to Central Otago and Dunedin City in the south. He said that while the rain was a welcome relief, the full impact of the drought would last for some time yet and he urged drought-affected farmers to plan for a tough winter and spring. Phil Journeaux, MAF national adverse events assistance co-ordinator, said the declaration of drought was called for Wairarapa because of the lack of pasture cover and winter feed in some east coast areas of the region. He said the official status would remain until September ''unless there is a spectacularly warm winter and phenomenal pasture growth''. Mr Journeaux said Wairarapa was the only region in the country to have endured back-to-back droughts for four years, and despite expectations of better pastures by September, financial woes would take several years to turn around. (Abridged)

Low holiday road toll: Good policing, or bad weather? Fri, 11 Jun 2010. 3 News http://www.3news.co.nz/Low-holiday-road-toll-Good-policing-or-bad-weather/tabid/423/articleID/160395/Default.aspx a Some think the weather kept the road toll low this year The Queen's Birthday road toll in 2010 was the lowest since records began in 1956, with only a single death. Police predictably attributed this to their zero-tolerance speed campaign, which saw anyone travelling more than 4km/h over the speed limit receive a ticket; but oth- ers have suggested the weather played its part. Much of the country was blanketed by heavy rain and snow, and according to those who doubt the police line, the lack of death on the roads is a result of many people choosing to stay at home. Consultant meteorologist for the MetService Ross Marsden says in any case, the result was a good one. "On the last Queen's Birthday weekend, there may have been less traffic due to the weather, or drivers may have adjusted their driving because of the weather," says Mr Marsden, "or because they knew that the police had lowered the margin of error over the speed limit." "I think several things contributed this weekend," says the AA's Mike Noon. "One, the police presence being out there, two, the very high awareness about road safety this weekend, and I think again, the weather." He contrasts this with the Easter holiday road toll, which hit double figures in fine driving conditions. Road policing national manager Supt Paula Rose says motorists this year made "good

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 26 choices". "We know that reducing speed is an important part of reducing death and injury on the roads, but we cannot be everywhere all the time. We would like to congratulate everyone who took the time this weekend to think about their driving, think about their speed, think about their decision-making," said Supt Rose. "They are the ones who made a difference this weekend."

We compared each Queen's Birthday road toll from the last decade with the overall weather conditions to see if there was any correlation between the two. And it turns out, there isn't - or at least, doesn't seem to be. From 2001 to 2008, the Queen's Birthday road toll was remarkably consistent, logging between three and five deaths each year. Over these years, weather conditions varied dramati- cally. For example: In 2000, with most of the country experiencing fine weather, there were five deaths In 2004, rain was widespread with few exceptions, and there were four deaths In 2006, conditions were reportedly worse than this year, and there were three deaths. In 2009, the weekend's road toll hit double-digits for the first time since 1996. According to the MetService forecasts for the weekend, rain and thunderstorms affected most of the North Island, and parts of the lower North Island and South Island experienced snow – the same conditions that many are crediting with lowering this year's road toll to a single death. (Abridged)

Adapting to a future with less snow By Marjorie Cook Otago Daily Times on Thu, 17 Jun 2010 http://www.odt.co.nz/news/queenstown-lakes/111058/adapting-future-less-snow

Niwa ice and snow scientist Dr Jordy Hendrikx in Wanaka. Photo :Marjorie Cook. In 30 years' time, there will be less snow in the mountains around Wanaka and Queenstown, forcing tourism businesses to promote other reasons for Australians to take a winter holiday in the region, Canter- bury researchers say. Lincoln University researcher Assoc Prof Susanne Becken, Lincoln Uni- versity postdoctoral research fellow Dr Jude Wilson and National Insti- tute of Water and Atmospheric Research scientist Dr Jordy Hendrikx visited the region recently to interview businesses as part of an ongoing study of climate change and its impact on tourism. Lake Wanaka Tourism and Edgewater Resort hosted a presentation by the trio on Tuesday evening. Their mid-range scenario is, by 2040, there will be less snow at all elevations below 2900m, and a shorter snow season. "The predominant factor people should be thinking about is less snow. The key message is looking at adaptation now for the future," Dr Hendrikx said. A similar 2003 study by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia's equivalent to Niwa) showed there would be a dramatic reduction in the area of snow coverage and a more elevated snow line in Australia, because of global warming and less precipitation. New Zealand would have less warming and more precipitation and, at first glance, that looked good for New Zealand, the scientists said. (abridged)

Heavy snow falls in the South Island By JARED MORGAN - The Southland Times 23/06/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3843684/Heavy-snow-falls-in-the-South-Island

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 27 Snow in Queenstown The first substantial snowfall of winter has hit Queenstown, while the MetService has issued a severe weather watch for the Nelson Ranges as well as the ranges in Gisborne and Hawke's Bay. The snow closed southern roads this morning, including the Crown Range and Lindis Pass, and Queenstown police have advised motorists not to travel unless they have to as snow has made higher streets around the resort town impassable. The dump also gave students the day off school in Queenstown and Arrowtown with every school giving notice they would close. - with MICHAEL FOX, Stuff.co.nz (Abridged)

Heavy snow fall wreaks havoc on South Island roads Wed, 23 Jun 2010 By Leanne Malcolm http://www.3news.co.nz/Heavy-snow-fall-wrecks-havoc-on-South- Island-roads/tabid/423/articleID/162427/Default.aspx

Schools and roads across inland parts of the South Island have been closed because of a heavy snow fall. It arrived this morning, as predicted by forecasters, although no one expected it to be as heavy or as disruptive. Queenstown's big tourist attraction, the Shotover Jet, checked the river first for ice before opening for business. The snow also made driving conditions treacherous with many roads only passable with chains. (Abridged)

Flooding worsening in Coromandel June 25, 2010 Newstalk ZB http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/flooding- worsening-in-coromandel-3608832

Whakatane’s overflowing gutters There is severe flooding in the Coromandel Peninsula and it could be worsening. State Highway 25 is now closed to all but four wheel drive vehicles between Whitianga and Coroglen. The one-lane bridge from Marae Rd to Goldfields Rd is under half a metre of water. Roads are closed completely between Coromandel and Kuaotunu due to a slip. The highway was already shut between Coromandel and Tapu. Senior MetService forecaster John Crouch says New Zealand is stuck between two low pressure systems and a heavy rain warning has been issued for the Coromandel Peninsula.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 28

Coast worst hit 7 Jul, 2010 Gisborne Herald http://

www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=18281 THOU SHALT NOT PASS: Links in and out of the Gisborne district have been tenuous over the last 24 hours. This tree fell on to State Highway 2 at Bartletts Hill near the bottom of the Whareratas closing the road for an hour and a half yesterday morning. Further south between Wairoa and Napier the highway was still blocked by slips this morning with no sign of opening. Many other roads in the district are still blocked. Picture by Paul Rickard THE worst of the rain in the Gisborne East Coast district is over but seven people are still isolated near Ruatoria and many on the Coast are without power. (Abridged)

Police urge caution on roads 13 July 2010, Marl- borough Ex- press http://

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 29 www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/3913511/Police-urge-caution-on-roads

Heavy frosts along State Highway One near Para. Ice has caused problems on Marlborough roads overnight with three crashes on State High- way 1 between Picton and Kaikoura. With the temperature plummeting below zero for the fifth night in a row, police are warning motorists to be aware of black ice on roads and slow down on icy patches. Constable Willy Squires, of Kaikoura, said a Mainfreight truck and trailer unit slid off the road near Ohau Point, north of Kaikoura, about 5am. The driver said he was travelling at a slow speed, but hit a patch of ice on the road and slid sideways into a ditch, Mr Squires said. Tasman district highway patrol head, Inspector Hugh Flower, said ice on the roads could be deadly and he urged motorists to drive to the conditions. "We hope we don't see more crashes, but if people don't adjust their speeds we may do," Mr Flower said. "It's not a matter of dropping your speed by 5kmh ... [drop it] by 20kmh." Anywhere shade has been on the roads during the daytime frost will form, Metservice weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said the temperature dropped to minus 5 degrees Celsius in Blenheim last night. But relief is on the horizon, with an approaching front forecast to bring warmer weather, he said. (Abridged)

Otago in Grip of big Freeze ODT 13 Jul 2010-09-15 http://www.odt.co.nz/news/ dunedin/115511/otago-grip-big-freeze

Shotover Jet general manager Clark Scott holds a chunk of ice from the Shotover River yesterday. He hopes the bleak winter conditions of 2008 - when ice on the Shotover River disrupted operations for 11 days - do not recur this season. Shotover Jet yesterday postponed trips for the second consecutive morning because of ice building up on the banks and sheets of ice floating down the river. Photo by James Beech

Otago is in the grip of a persistent cold snap that has seen many towns in the region record air frosts nearly every day of the past three weeks. The air frost temperatures were "pretty severe" even for July in Otago and were near record in places, Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said. Dunedin Airport's -6.7degC yesterday was the second-coldest July air temperature recorded at the site since 1947, and the -7.2degC at Queenstown was the third-coldest since 1871. Grass temperatures were even colder, being -8.8degC at Dunedin Airport and -11degC at Ran- furly. Ophir recorded its hardest frost of the winter, 8.5 degrees, yesterday.. Arrowtown's Plumbers & Building Services owner Wayne Patterson yesterday said plumbers had been called to fix a couple of burst sprinkler heads this week, which was about average for the time of year. "You need seven or eight frosts in a row [before pipes burst]. We've had three or four." (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 30

Mercury plunges to record lows NZ Herald 14 July 2010-09-15 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10658655 By Michael Dickison Wednesday Jul 14, 2010

The nights have been cold in Hamilton, but these sisters made the most of a sunny day to enjoy the school holidays. Photo / Christine Cornege An extreme cold snap has broken temperature records and produced what are likely to be the country's coldest nights this year. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research said the past few days had seen some of the lowest temperatures on record. The cold air had also stayed for a remarkably long time, with Dunedin getting air frosts on each of the past 20 days. MetService forecaster Rob Kerr said the cold snap was caused by persistently clear skies and light winds. Winds were now picking up in the north and south ends of NewZealand to blunt the worst frosts,he said, and some cloud cover could reach the northeast of the country today, from Tauranga to Gisborne. The central South Island was likely to remain still and cold until tomorrow, he said. The cold snap has caused trouble on the roads, including a crash yesterday that closed State Highway 1 in Canterbury. The chills * -7.2C in Queenstown, the third-coldest night in 139 years. * -6.8C in Taumarunui, the coldest since 1947. * -5.4C in Christchurch. * -3.3C in Hamilton * 1.5C in Wellington * 2.4C in Auckland - Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Abridged)

Fronts Poised to end West Coast’s Dry Spell Amy Glass The Press 14 July 2010-09-15 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/south-island/3915939/Fronts-poised-to-end-West-Coasts-dry-spell West Coasters have been enjoying unusually dry weather for weeks, but reality is looming, MetService says. Spokesman Bob McDavitt said Coasters had benefited from a "lack of fronts and an abundance of anticyclones" over the past three weeks. The average rainfall for Westland in July was 180 millimetres, but so far the region had received just 2.4mm, he said. The last significant rainfall was between June 20 and June 22, when 100mm fell. The region was "noticeably dry", McDavitt said, but fronts would return tomorrow, bringing rain. A Department of Conservation ranger for Arthur's Pass, Annabelle Studholme, said the area "has had no snow". Skiers at nearby Temple Basin were being forced to walk two hours to get to the ski point. "The weather is beautiful. We are having incredible, sunny days," she said. "People are com- menting on how dry the tracks are." The last significant rainfall at Arthur's Pass had been 31mm on June 21, she said.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 31 "This time last year there was snow on the ground. It's a bit bizarre," she said.

Sodden Ground Inundated Again Paul Gorman The Press 24 July 2910 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/3953474/Sodden- ground-inundated-again STACEY SQUIRES The Press BOW WAVE: Heavy rain has caused flooding on State High- way 1 and other North Canterbury roads. Heavy rain on already sodden ground caused road problems and flooding in North Canterbury and coastal Marlbor- ough yesterday, but Christchurch escaped the worst of the weather. Between 80 and 100 millimetres fell in areas from Waipara to Cheviot, but the biggest falls were on the Seaward Kaikoura Range, where the rain gauge at Snowfall recorded 180mm by mid-afternoon. Blue Skies Weather forecaster Tony Trewinnard, who lives at Amberley Beach, said the extra rain had quickly ponded on top of saturated ground. "There's a lot of water lying around here, similar to what it was in those big floods two years ago. It was amazing to see water ponding in the paddocks. Everything is totally sodden. Look at the rainfall figures for May and June, both well above normal, and now July is well above normal as well. It's not surprising that everything is so wet." (Abridged)

Bridge under water as Wairarapa rivers burst their banks Dominion Poat 24 Jul HEAVY rains caused flooding and slips in the lower North Island as rivers burst their banks and sodden hillsides gave way. Rivers overflowed in southern Wairarapa yesterday afternoon, and slips blocked railway lines and roads in Wellington. Greater Wellington regional council issued flood warnings when heavy rain across southern Wairarapa burst the banks of the Huangarua and Ruamahanga rivers. Last night the Ponatahi Bridge, near Martinborough, was under a foot of water and the small coastal settlements of White Rock and Tora were cut off. There were slips on the Coast Road, near Wainuiomata, and the Johnsonville railway line was closed between 2pm and 3pm while crews worked to clear small slips. (Abridged)

NIWA’s New Fortune Teller Mon, 26 Jul 2010 TV3 By Josh Heslop http://www.3news.co.nz/NIWAs-new-fortune-teller/tabid/1318/articleID/167455/Default.aspx New Zealand can already boast the tallest tower in the Southern Hemisphere. Now we can also claim the most powerful computer south of the equator. Geeks rejoice!! NZ is on top! The Fitzroy Computer is the new pride and joy at the National Institute of Water and Atmos- pheric Research (NIWA). It’s 100 times more powerful than the previous computer and can make up to 34 trillion calculations per second. But what does that mean for weather predicting in this country? Well, the biggest advantage is the prediction of severe weather events rather than day-to-day forecasting. We’re talking major flooding, storms and climate change. Lets face it, that’s the stuff we really need to know about! It’s all about surveying the current weather trends and calculating how they will affect conditions in the future.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 32 And that’s something we need more of. While we might be complaining about the cold weather here, parts of the Northern Hemisphere are experiencing their hottest summer on record. New York City topped 37 degrees on two consecutive days, turning Central Park into a summer slumber. Meanwhile, things were much more serious across Europe, with temperatures hitting at least 40 in Spain, Belgium and Germany. In Russia, 71 people lost their lives when they drowned in a bid to cool off in lakes and rivers. Hurricane season is also up and running. In my last blog I wrote about the impending affects on the oil clean up in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Bonnie was the next off the rank, sending boats back to shore. Then there's the ongoing flooding in China. Over 1000 people are dead or missing and a further 100,000 people have lost their homes. More torrential rain is forecast across many states. Sometimes I think we forget the huge power of the weather. It’s a life giver and a life taker. With a bit of help from technology we can see which way it is going to turn and prepare our- selves for any changes. The Fitzroy Computer has been described at the closest thing to a crystal ball. At $12.5 mil- lion, it’s an expensive crystal ball! But it is money well spent!

MetService spendup to improve accuracy http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3959661/MetService-spendup-to-improve-accuracy By PAUL GORMAN - The Press 27 Jul MetService is promising more accurate forecasts this year. The state-owned enterprise is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars improving computer models that guide forecasters in their predictions. Forecasts are generally between 80 per cent and 85 per cent accurate in New Zealand, a difficult country for weather prediction. However, MetService wants to lift that rate. National weather services general manager Norm Henry said the three-dimensional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model currently used by forecasters had 8km by 8km grid squares with weather data at each corner. The aim was to reduce the grid size, increasing the amount of data and providing more pre- cise forecasts. "It takes all the observations we have, as well as older model data, and does its best possible interpolation," he said. "The plan is to implement a 4km grid, which is more complex, as cut- ting the grid spacing in half requires around eight times as much computing power." Computer upgrades costing hundreds of thousands of dollars were scheduled to be in place by the end of the year, Henry said. Global computer models gave MetService forecasters a "broad-scale picture of the weather, where the main fronts and highs and lows are, and how they're moving". "But by doing local modelling, we're effectively down-scaling that. What happens when you down-scale is you get a much better representation of the local terrain. "It goes without saying the geography of New Zealand is complex, the coastline and the terrain, and that drives a lot of local-scale effects – sea breezes, the height of snow in a winter storm in Canterbury, the amount of rain in the catchment areas around the southern lakes." Over the past 10 to 15 years there had been a "steady increase in ability" to predict weather more accurately and further ahead, he said. "I'd be pretty cautious with any forecast beyond five to seven days, but that leads into another interesting aspect of this. We'll never rely on a single model, but instead we try to look at a range of possible model solutions. "Forecasters spend a lot of time comparing them to each other and assessing how they are performing compared with current observations. Otherwise you can get badly led astray.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 33 There's this notion that you don't want to put your eggs in one basket."

A great start to spring By Amelia Wade NZ Herald Sunday Aug 1, 2010 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm? c_id=1&objectid=10662791 Lambs are arriving now. Photo / APN Spring has arrived earlier with temperatures over the next week expected to reach into the 20s in some parts of the country. With a month to go before spring officially starts, weather patterns similar to a La Nina are warming things up. "We're definitely in spring now, with highs hitting around 17 and 18C," weather expert Philip Duncan said yesterday. "It's unofficially officially spring." But Met Service has released heavy rain warnings for parts of the country over the next few days, including Auckland. Gale force winds are predicted for eastern areas but the weather will still be warm. (Abridged)

Wind too much for trees Nelson Mail 2 Aug 2010

Photo: COLIN SMITH Tree down: Nelmac’s Robert Fryer looks at the titoki tree in Queen’s Gardens, Nelson, which was blown over yesterday. Nelmac workers were this morning assessing the damage and cleaning up branches scattered on the corner of Bridge and Tas- man streets. At Stoke’s Isel Park, a willow also fell victim to gusts, falling into the river. MetService meteorologist Ross Marsden said the strongest wind readings at Nelson Airport were at 3pm yesterday, when wind reached speeds of 32 knots, gusting to 45. Yesterday’s windy weather is thought to have caused a power cut in Aniseed Valley which affected 49 customers. (Abridged)

High winds create havoc on Wgtn roads Monday August 02, 2010 Newstalk ZB/TVNZ http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/high- winds-create-havoc-wgtn-roads-3680586

A curtain of rain falls across Wellington Harbour - looking to Lambton Harbour from Oriental Bay - Source: Courtesy of Soile Mottisenkangas High winds have created problems on roads around Wellington this morning. One car was blown into the path of another on the Rimutaka Hill Road last night, while a large rock which had fallen on to the same road ripped the bottom out of a vehicle

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 34 Crouch says the rain band's also expected to move across an already sodden Hawke's Bay and Gisborne. (Abridged)

Six Rescued from Coromandel Flooding TVNZ 5 July 2010 http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/six-rescued-coromandel-flooding-3626065 Six people have been rescued from cars trapped in flooding in Coromandel today. The two cars, one with two occupants, the other carrying a family of four, became stuck in the rising water on Kauaeranga Valley Road. The rescues came after other fire crews were called out to dozens of weather-related calls overnight and this morning, mainly to fallen trees and power lines, across Northland, Auck- land and Waikato, as heavy rain and gales lashed the top of the country. The bad weather is expected to continue for the first few days of the school holidays. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said a front caused by a deep low over the north Tasman Sea is expected to move slowly south from today through to Wednesday. Gisborne and Hawke's Bay will bear the brunt of the heavy rain, with 200mm to 250mm expected in the ranges and 80mm to 130mm in lower-lying areas until Wednesday. Heavy rain is also expected in parts of Northland, Coromandel and western Bay of Plenty until tonight. (abridged)

High-Resolution Weather Forecasts To Aid South's Roads

Voxy News Engine Tuesday, 6 July, 2010 http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/high-resolution-weather-forecasts-aid-souths-roads/5/54160 Roading authorities in Otago expect to exploit extensive "thermal mapping" by using minia- ture roadside weather stations to improve local forecasting. The forecasts will provide such a high level of resolution that transport managers will be able to allocate grit crews and de-icing sprayers to trouble spots before ice forms. They will also be able to confidently predict other weather-related problems such as summer heat waves melting road surfaces, and downpours causing surface flooding. "The series of weather stations going in over the next few months will be ready for next winter," New Zealand Transport Agency's Central Otago area manager John Jarvis told NZPA. "It'll enable motorists to make more timely decisions," he said. Abridged)

Weather for Ducks- and PlayStation Herald By Vaimoana Tapaleao 6 July2010- 09-15 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10656828

Photo / Hawke's Bay Today School holidays will be spent indoors for the next few days, as heavy rains, high winds and gusts hit the North Island. Heavy rain warnings have been issued for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, with 200mm to 300mm of rainfall expected in the ranges. Up to 150mm is forecast to fall north of Napier. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 35

Floods trap East Coast residents Tuesday Jul 6, 2010 Herald http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10656922 The MetService rain radar shows the in- tensity of rain focused over the East Cape at 12pm today. Photo / MetService Flooded and impassable roads have trapped seven residents inland from Rua- toria as the Mata River washed aweay road access. Local resident Jeremy Williams told Radio NZ that "raging, vicious and dirty" flood waters have left a "great big hole where the council road used to be". Heavy rain in the Gisborne area today has seen slips, surface flooding and road closures as the local civil defence centre goes on alert. Earlier today, rivers in the Gisborne area were threat- ening to top their banks but Gisborne Civil Defence spokeswoman Sheridan Gundry said the swollen rivers had begun to drop. Civil Defence controller Jon Davies said the main areas of concern were the flats north of Tologa Bay, Te Karaka and Manutuke. He said the heaviest falls in the past 24 hours have been near the Raparapaririki Forest - inland from Ruatoria - where 220mm fell. The Waikura Valley saw 200mm and Hikuwai got 208mm. "The district is now quite soaked to the north, with the land having reached saturation point. If the Waipaoa River continues to rise, there could be problems in the Te Karaka area. • NZ Herald staff (Abridged)

Weather puts city sportsfields under pressure Wednesday, 7 July 2010, 1:37 pm Press Release: Wellington City Council http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1007/S00073.htm

Wet weather is playing havoc with Wellington’s waterlogged sportsfields, forcing the mid- week closure of some grounds and restricting weekend use. The situation is affecting all the winter sports that use the fields and a number of games have had to be cancelled over the last two to three weeks. Wellington City Council Parks and Gardens Manager Paul Andrews says parks staff are doing what they can to ensure as many games as possible take place, however the continuing rain means the grounds are getting muddy with use. “The city doesn’t have the luxury of surplus fields so we do have to manage what we have carefully. If we don’t, we run the risk of putting fields out of use for weeks or the rest of the season.” Mr Andrews says Wellingtonians probably don’t need to be reminded about how wet it has been over the last few months. During June there has been an average rainfall of 200mm compared with 56mm for the same time last year. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 36 which struck it. (Abridged)

Storm lashes north 5th August 2010 Northern Advocate http://www.northernadvocate.co.nz/local/news/storm- lashes-north/3918693/ This yacht washed up on the shores of Waitangi Beach during rough weather in Paihia yesterday.

The weather front battering Northland has closed schools, flooded roads and damaged property - and even sent a trampoline flying through power lines. It also brought tragedy when a car thought to have been swerving around a puddle was involved in a fatal collision. (Abridged)

Twister singles out Tauranga home Herald 6 Aug 2010 by Michael Dickison http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10663968 ‘Pretty ungroovy’ mini tornado blamed for bending carport poles and wrecking shed Photo/ Alan Gibson A freak tornado in Hairini has ripped off a shed roof, flinging it almost 100m across a state highway while leaving almost everything else around untouched. Other casualties include two dog kennels, which have disappeared without trace, and a couple of trees seen flying past a neighbour’s window. Small fence posts nearby remain perfectly upright. The Fire Service came out that night and put forward the tornado theory. MetSer- vice agreed a small tornado was the most likely cause. Ms Andersen’s insurance company visited yesterday and said it would cover the damage— whatever it was, it wasn’t done by a person. (Abridged)

Snow and gales expected tomorrow and Monday; WEATHER WARNINGS http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/press-the-christchurch-new-zealand/mi_8033/is_20100807/snow-gales-expected-monday- weather/ai_n54747713/ Aug 7, 2010 | by Paul GORMAN The Press

A "significant" snowstorm has much of Canterbury in its path tomorrow and Monday. Farmers have been warned to ensure vulnerable stock have shelter from tonight because of strengthening, bitter southeasterly winds, heavy snow down to about 300 metres, sleet and icy rain. Blue Skies Weather is warning up to 20 centimeters of snow may settle down to 300 metres, up to 50cm down to 500m and more than a metre of snow above 1000m. MetService has issued a severe weather watch for heavy rain and snow and will decide this

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 37 morning if full-scale warnings are needed. Spokesman Bob McDavitt said the ingredients for heavy snow ap- peared to be coming together in the right order. High-level moisture would be arriving from the Tasman Sea in an area of extremely strong winds, helping the low- pressure system to deepen as cold southerly winds moved up the South Island. Blue Skies forecaster Tony Trewinnard said heavy rain would also cause problems. "Rainfalls over the next few days will be significant. Overall, around 100 millimetres is expected from Saturday afternoon to Mon- day afternoon, with the heaviest falls likely to be in Mid-Canterbury. (Abridged) MetService rejects cloud ComputerWorld 9 Aug 2010 http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/technology/metservice-rejects-cloud MetService did glance, appropriately, at the cloud when considering plans to increase the resolution of its three-dimensional computer model of New Zealand’s weather, but likely bandwidth limits led to rejection of that approach. The upgrade will be almost entirely a hardware matter says CIO Russell Turner. It will involve doubling the linear resolution, taking data points at the corners of 4km squares rather than 8km squares and possibly increasing the number of vertical layers in the model, currently “30 or 40”, he says. From a software point of view that task will be comparatively easy. Approxi- mately an eightfold increase in computer power is the main emphasis of the move. The model currently runs on Hewlett Packard blade-servers. It is still not certain whether the task will continue to be run in-house; the new hardware may not fit in MetService’s current data centre and may have to be run at a remote centre. Cloud operation is probably not feasible, says Turner, though it was investigated. Amazon can supply arrays of HPC blade processors, but 10 Gbit/s communication with the cloud is probably not sufficient bandwidth, he says. As a State-owned enterprise, MetService will meet the six-figure cost of the new machine entirely from its own resources, Turner says. The new equipment is planned to be in place by the end of this year.

Snow a mixed blessing Otago Daily Times Mon, 9 Aug 2010 http://www.odt.co.nz/regions/ otago/119847/snow-mixed-blessing

Cattle wait in the snow for another feed of hay at Becks yesterday. Photo by Lynda Van Kempen. A snowfall on Saturday afternoon was a blessing for Queenstown snow- fields, following almost a week of rain, but some travellers were not so

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 38

THE BIG DRY: Projection maps from NIWA show the expected drop in rainfall in northern areas as a result of climate change. Closed landfills in Rodney produced a whopping 11,463 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents annually by emitting methane, which is 21 times more po- tent than carbon dioxide. This accounts for 62 percent of the overall council emissions within the district. Wastewater treatment accounted for 12 percent, followed by electricity use at 11 percent, and contractors at 10.4 percent. The council fleet clocks in with 2.7 percent, with the remaining activities under 1 percent each. emissions in the district. A carbon footprint inventory just released says reducing closed landfill and wastewater emissions is not prac- tical as the small amounts produced from each site make methane capture uneconomic, either for flaring or gen- erating energy. The council has reduced emissions by 7.5 percent in electricity use at its Orewa offices since energy saving software was installed into the building management system, along with en- couraging carpooling and fuel efficient driving. Greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global warming, says Dr James Renwick, principal scientist with the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere – NIWA. "Given the quantity of carbon dioxide humankind has already emitted into the atmosphere, we are already committed to more warming and climate change." A report released last month showed the past decade was the hottest on record. "All the key indicators show that the world is warming and has been for decades. The trend is particularly clear in measures such as sea level, which has been steadily rising for well over a century," he says. (abridged)

Black Friday kicks off black weather weekend Friday August 13, 2010 Source: NZPA/ ONE News/ Newstalk ZB http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/ heavy-rain-forecast-weekend- 3698685

Rough weather on Tamaki Drive in Auckland caused by combination of an extra high tide and onshore winds Photo NZPA

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 39

1000-plus stuck on Mt Hutt The Press 13 Aug

Photos: WENDYVANDIJK/MT HUTT SKI AREA Cosy: It was a crush in the Mt Hutt cafe last night with more than 1000 skiers and snowboarders forced to spend the night there as high winds hammered the mountain. More than 1000 people, including 300 schoolchildren, were stranded on Mt Hutt last night after winds gusting up to 200kmh made the access road too dangerous. More than 1000 people, including 300 schoolchildren, were stranded on Mt Hutt last night after gale-force winds closed the access road. Skiers, snowboarders and 120 staff were packed into a cafe, 1600 metres up the mountain, with the prospect of a long night as winds gusting up to 200kmh roared across the Canterbury skifield. The extreme winds closed the skifield about 11.40am, with the access road shut at 12.30pm as gales created snow drifts and cut visibility. MetService forecaster Heath Gullery said winds up to 180kmh were expected overnight, but should abate about dawn. (Abridged)

Opotiki Isolated due to Heavy Rainfall By Margo MacVicar Epoch Times Staff Aug 14, 2010 http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/40967/ Heavy rainfall overnight has isolated the already sodden eastern Bay of Plenty town of Opo- tiki. Metservice have indicated that the expected rainfall is 180 millimetres in the ranges and up to 110 millimetres in lower-lying areas. Regional council duty flood manager Bruce Crabbe said that stop logs were being installed at Whakatane's wharf and fishing club sites in preparation for continuing rise of river levels co- inciding with the effect of sea swells at high tide. A high tide of 2m is expected at Whakatane at 10:46am and another tonight at 11.08pm. All boats moored at the wharf have also been moved (Abeidged)

Mother Nature dumps on Whakatane Dom Post 16 Aug 2010

Photos: NZPA Floodwater swamp: A resident paddles a kayak through a Whakatane reserve after a combination of a king tide and torrential rain during the weekend caused extensive flooding in the area. TWO days of torrential rain around Whakatane in Bay of Plenty have caused floods that blocked roads, cut phone lines and forced families from

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 40 their homes. Roads to nearby Opotiki, which had been cut off by surface flooding and slips, were reopened yesterday, but a road between Whakatane and Ohope and six other rural roads remained closed. A king tide, combined with the downpour, turned the Whakatane River into a raging torrent yesterday, forcing businesses around the town’s wharf to close as water flooded car parks and lapped at their doors. (Abridged)

Whakatane mops up after weekend of wild weather by NZPA Aug 16, 2010

A weekend of heavy rain created havoc for the Bay of Plenty town of Whakatane with flooding all over the area.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 41

Climate Change, Flooding Link Off The Mark, Minister Says Voxy News Engine Wednesday, 18 August http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/climate-change-flooding-link-mark-minister-says/5/59321

Nick Smith Wellington, Aug 18 NZPA - Blaming specific weather events such as the recent flooding in Whakatane on climate change is off the mark, Climate Change Min- ister Nick Smith says. Green Party co-leader Russel Norman said this week that science was showing the east coast of New Zealand was becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme climate events and flooding such as that in Whakatane would be seen more commonly in the near future. He questioned Dr Smith in Parliament today about whether he accepted international expert advice that flooding events would increase due to climate change and what he was doing to address the issue. Dr Smith said extreme weather events had always been part of nature's natural processes and it was not scientifically robust to assign a particular event to climate change. Advice from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research was that in the New Zealand context there was not sufficient evidence of an increased frequency of storm events for it to be assigned to human-induced climate change, Dr Smith said. But he said he accepted that at a global level there was evidence from experts such as the In- ternational Panel on Climate Change of a link between climate change and adverse weather events. "But I would caution, the sort of extreme statements that have been made by (Dr Norman) that the Bay of Plenty floods was a consequence of climate change is not scientifically robust." (Abridged)

Po- lar

blast lines up for spring By PAUL GORMAN - The Press 18/08/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/4034216/Polar-blast-lines-up-for-spring

Alex Newman, 15 : A photograph of Christchurch sky taken from above the fog level from Panorama Rd last night.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 42 happy. Snow fell intermittently from early Saturday afternoon before settling in around 4pm, deliv- ering 30cm to 45cm of snow to the Coronet Peak and The Remarkables skifields. However, the snow and accompanying winds disrupted several international flights. • In the Wanaka area, Saturday's snowfall brought 15cm of new snow to Cardrona Alpine Re- sort and Treble Cone, causing difficult conditions for skiing competitions on Saturday but providing excellent powder conditions yesterday. The fresh snow and cold conditions were welcomed by skifields, because heavy rain last Mon- day had caused issues with snow melt. • After almost eight weeks of frozen snow on the ground in Naseby and Oturehua, it finally thawed last week - just in time for another fall. (Abridged)

Happy weathering any storm Dom Post 10 Aug 2010 Veteran ‘weathergirl’ Karen Olsen tells Kimberley Rothwell there are no clouds on her horizons. IN THE beginning, Karen Olsen says, she was terrible. The Wellington-raised TV One weather presenter arrived in Auckland to start her new job on a Thursday morning, and that night she was on air. Hundreds of thousands of people were watching her. A meteorologist by trade, and shy by nature, it was a terrifying experience. ‘‘I was very nervous, and the poor viewers put up with that. On the whole, I don’t think I was doing a very good job when I started. There’s no real way of getting used to live television, you’ve just got to do it.’’ She’s had her disasters – graphics with no text in them, people coming into the studio and crashing around in the background – and there was the time she had to do an update with Robbie Williams standing just off camera. Mention how she handled the recent Te Wiki o Te Reo Maori (Maori language week) and she blushes: ‘‘I quite enjoyed it, but I was thinking more about getting the Maori pronunciation right than I was about my presentation or my forecast that night. I’ve got a lot of Maori cousins on the East Coast and I thought they wouldn’t be impressed if I got it wrong.’’ This month, she’s voicing a series of animated science jargon-busters for TVNZ7’s Spotlight on Science and Technology month. Olsen says she’s developed a thick skin since joining TV One as a 28-year-old: ‘‘I was not one of those people who was desperate to be on TV and be in the limelight, that sort of personality where they’re bold. Like April Ieremia – she was just designed to be on TV, she doesn’t care what people think . . . Whereas I was much more aware of wanting to please people and wanting them to like me.’’ As well as having to bear the brunt of jokes about getting the weather forecast wrong, she gets emails from viewers about her clothes, which are all chosen by a stylist. ‘‘I’ve had some horrendous emails that people would never say to your face, but they feel they’ve got a right to tell you you look really fat or ugly. You just have to ignore it. Sometimes they have a point, you look back and see that really didn’t work on air at all, but that’s one thing I’ve learned over the years – to not let things get to me.’’ She may be all elegance and glam on the telly these days , but once upon a time, Olsen roughed it with the boys on far-flung Raoul Island, where she maintained a weather station for Metser- vice. The first woman to be stationed on Raoul – she lived there with three blokes – an early news clip shows Olsen romping around the island in a boiler suit with bare feet, and milking the island’s cow. ‘‘The first thing we had to do was learn how to milk a cow. They had chickens for eggs, and a little garden. We took everything that we needed for a whole year with us. My job was to do a couple of balloon flights a day, record observations, look after the instruments and get all the climate data organised and back to New Zealand every month. We were almost like an early warning station – weather systems coming down from the north usually went

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 43 through Raoul first.’’ It was, she says, the most amazing year of her life. She was with the Metservice for eight years, before being encouraged to apply for the weather presenting role. Sixteen years later, Olsen has survived ‘‘seven or eight reshuffles’’ at TVNZ and seen fellow presenter Jim Hickey be controversially fired then re-hired. ‘‘I still always get that little adrenalin kick. But I’m not like I was years ago, I actually enjoy it now.’’

Flood Forecasting Model A First For Canterbury Wednesday, 11 August, 2010 - http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/flood-forecasting-model-first-canterbury/5/58411 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1008/S00184/flood-forecasting-model-a-first- for-canterbury.htm

A newly developed flood forecasting system - success- fully trialled by Environment Canterbury during the May 2010 floods in South Canterbury's Temuka district - has been commissioned for full installation this month. "For the first time we were able to predict the timing and quantity of flooding in the Temuka River during the May floods with a good degree of confidence," said Ken Tay- lor, Environment Canterbury's Director of Investigations and Monitoring. "The MetService provided an early warning of heavy rain and when the forecast was input into the new flood forecasting system it predicted flood flows in the Temuka River nearly two days before flooding occurred." (Abridged)

Cold nights burst pipes By MARYANNE TWENTYMAN - Waikato Times 12/08/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/4016645/Cold-nights-burst-pipes Waikato plumbers have been kept busy with a spate of burst pipes following freezing winter conditions around the region. This morning saw sub zero temperatures with -2 degrees Celsius recorded in Hamilton making it a frosty start for most. Two plumbers the Times spoke to today said burst pipes had kept them busy in the last few weeks. A Metservice spokesman said calm conditions contributed to the freezing temperatures (Abridged)

North under threat DELWYN DICKEY - Rodney Times 12/08/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/rodney- times/4013944/North-under-threat

BYE BYE OREWA BEACH: Sea levels are expected to rise by almost a metre by the end of the century, NIWA reckons. Global warming will have a profound influence on future lifestyles in Rodney, the district’s Long Term Council Com- munity Plan says.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 44

KIRK HARGREAVES/The Press:

HARD TIMES AHEAD: A spring lamb cavorts on its mother near Swannanoa. A polar blast heading in New Zealand's di- rection could be bad news for farmers. Bitterly cold weather could coincide with the arrival of spring in a fortnight, bringing bad news for farmers. While Canterbury's winter has been wet and lacking in sunshine, polar blasts and snow have largely been absent. Fore- casters warn that may be about to change with stirrings in the polar vortex, the ring of westerly winds encircling the Antarctic. The southern annular mode (Sam), which measures the strength of the vortex, has been at record highs in the past month, meaning the polar air has been locked around Antarc- tica. However, computer models show Sam is expected to weaken over the next few weeks and return to negative values for the first time since April, allowing polar outbreaks to head north towards New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and South America. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said it was too early to say which countries would get the freezing southerlies. However, the computer predictions meant the South Island was at risk. "For most of the winter we haven't had the good old polar outbreaks. We've had a few goes at snow, but it hasn't been like previous years." National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research principal climate scientist Dr James Renwick said Sam's high values had been unusual. "These positive episodes don't normally last for more than a month or two at the most, but it is very unusual this winter, it's lasted four months," he said. Monthly values recorded since 1979 showed Sam was more positive than it had been for 30 years. "There is a trend towards the positive, which is being put down to ozone depletion, greenhouse gas emissions, and it will continue to be more positive as time goes on." (Abridged)

Rain causes major slips on Waiheke By Vaimoana Tapaleao Herald Friday Aug 27, 2010 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10669189 A house in Owhanake Bay is perched precari- ously close to the cliff edge. Photo / Natalie Slade A huge downpour on Wednesday night led to about 100 slips around Waiheke Island, putting at least one house in Surfdale at risk. Hauraki Gulf Islands councillor Denise Roche last night said she had noticed that the weather had become more extreme . "The weather's definitely changing - the result of climate change, I'm thinking - it's heavier rain in the winter and more dry in the summer." (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 45 Rain for six of last eight weekends By Yvonne Tahana Herald Saturday Aug 28, 2010 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10669451 Photo / Richard Robinson If you're feeling cheated by the weekend weather, you're right. It's been raining for six of the last eight weekends in Auckland, Tauranga and Hamilton and the North Is- land has had about 150 per cent of its normal August rainfall. In Wellington, it has rained on seven of the last eight weekends. The only exceptions are Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa, which are on about 80 per cent of average rain, says Niwa senior climate scientist Georgina Griffiths. (Abridged)

Kiwifruit growers in Bay of Plenty appear to have escaped major damage from hailstones up to 15 millimetres wide. Radio NZ 29 Aug 2010 http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/55481/hailstones-hit-kiwifruit-but-no-major-damage-reported MetService says a storm peppered the area around Tauranga with sizeable quantities of hail shortly after midday. The biggest stones were just five millimetres short of being classed as severe by the weather forecaster. (Abridged)

Ferocious storm rattles through By BELINDA FEEK - Waikato Times 31/08/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/4079125/Ferocious-storm-rattles-through A ferocious lightning and thunder storm melted power points, blew power boxes and short- circuited appliances as it whipped through the Waikato and Bay of Plenty on Sunday morning. Parts of the Waikato also received a hail storm. MetService consultant Ross Marsden recorded 110 lightning strikes to ground between 10am and 2pm as the storm developed at Te Hoe near Lake Waikare and travelled east-southeast to Papamoa and Motiti Island and out to sea. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 46 WHAT IS THE MET SOCIETY ?

The Society is a group of people from around New Zealand (and overseas) who like to share their fascination in weather and its antics. The Society was inaugu- rated at a meeting held in Wellington on 11 October 1979. The objects of the So- ciety are to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather, and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.

What does the Society provide? Access to a lively committee who are specially elected watchdogs for any conten- tious issue involving weather or climate. For members in the main centres: An e-group for communications plus organised meetings throughout the year on weather and climate topics. A quarterly newsletter full of member’s news and views plus descriptions of recent significant weather. An annual professional journal Weather and Climate , providing members access to the latest peer-reviewed thinking in the profession of meteorology. It is accepted internationally as the journal that gives recognition of the value of meteorological and climatological work done in New Zealand. It contains papers of interest to both professional and general readers. It also includes book reviews and explanations of the unusual. Members are invited to send in their own descriptions or photos. An annual conference. A web site http://metsoc.rsnz.org/ Who are the Society members? We are a mix of professionals and non-professionals. We come from a broad range of backgrounds, including: meteorologists, weather watchers and storm chasers Climatologists and environmentalists, Geographers and geophysicists, Atmospheric scientists, physicists and chemists hydrologists and ecologists sailors and divers trampers and climbers Aviators, flyers and glider pilots agriculturists and aquaculturists astronomers and cloud-admirers economists and engineers professional weather forecasters

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 47

MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION FORM

Anyone with an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate of New Zealand may join us. We welcome applications from non-professionals and from those in disciplines related to the study of the atmosphere (oceanography, hydrology, etc.).

A brief description of the Society and a list of services are outlined on the other side of this page. If you wish to apply for membership, please complete the form below.

I wish to apply for membership of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

1. Name and Address (include email):

2. My interest in meteorology is:

3. I am willing to have my name and location published in Society documents: YES NO

4. Payment (annual): Ordinary members ...... $35.00* Institutional members ...... $105.00* Overseas posting surcharge ...... $15.00* Subscriptions are due on 1 August. * Rates here are for 2008/9 and may change at AGM. Our financial year is from 1 August to 31 July.

5. Signature: ______Date:______6. Please return this form, and a cheque (made out to Meteorological Society of N.Z. ) to The Secretary Meteorological Society of New Zealand P.O. Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141 New Zealand

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2010 - Page 48

THIS IS A REMINDER

THAT OUR 31st ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

WILL BE HELD

IN NOVEMBER.

Details still being finalised

All financial members are allowed to attend

If you wish to raise an item for the agenda

or to nominate a fellow financial member

for a position on the committee

then please let

one of the committee know.