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Global Gold-Backed ETF Flows October 2020

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Global Gold-Backed ETF Flows October 2020 Global gold-backed ETF flows October 2020 5 November 2020 www.gold.org 2 Gold ETF inflows continued, but at a (US$46bn) , well below the average in 2020, but still above the long-term average. Short-term implied volatility in significantly lower pace gold—or the expected future movements—increased from 17 to 20, not unexpected ahead of the US election, but Highlights put/call skew remained relatively flat—suggesting no • Gold ETFs have added more than 1,000t for the first expected directional bias in future prices. time ever, surpassing the 2009 record of 646t. Global uncertainties remain as gold demand trends • European funds drove nearly all net inflows continue • WisdomTree Physical Gold GBP Hedged and iShares The official US election day came and went, but uncertainty Physical Gold collectively drove global inflows in over the results will likely continue for some time. As we October recently noted in Gold and the US election, the fundamental support for gold investment demand is unlikely to change regardless of the Presidential victor. October highlights Gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) Our Q3 Gold Demand Trends highlighted a common 2020 recorded their 11th consecutive month of net inflows theme. The global pandemic continues to hurt the during October, matching the record number of positive economy, which in turn is negatively impacting consumer monthly flows set in April 2006. Gold ETF holdings demand for jewellery and technology. On the flip side, increased by 20.3 tonnes (t), +US$1.4bn or 0.6% of assets investment demand, primarily through gold ETFs remains under management (AUM), during the month as the gold strong. price moved mostly sideways, finishing slightly below Given the recent uptick in global COVID-19 cases, US$1,900/oz. Net inflows of 1,022t (US$57.1bn) in 2020, geopolitical and market uncertainty, and the expected long so far, have driven global gold ETF holdings to a new all- term, low-rate environment that improves gold’s time high of 3,899t (US$235bn in AUM).1 opportunity cost3, we do not see this scenario changing in Monthly regional overview the coming months. Positive inflows continued during October, albeit the lowest monthly increase in 2020, as most risk assets, like stocks, Table 1: October total global gold-backed ETF flows* were lower on the month. Nearly all the net inflows came Total AUM Change Flows Flows (% from European funds which added 20.2t (US$1.4bn, 1.4% (bn) tonnes (US$mn) AUM) AUM). North American funds added a nominal amount of North America 126.5 1.8 165.8 0.13% 1.8t (US$166mn, 0.1%). Asian funds had small inflows of Europe 98.3 20.2 1,352.1 1.38% 1.1t (US$76mn, 1.0%), while funds listed in other regions Asia 7.3 1.1 76.0 1.04% experienced significant outflows relative to their size of 2.8t Other 3.8 -2.8 -144.1 -3.80% (US$144mn, 3.8%). Total 235.9 20.3 1,449.8 0.61% Quiet volumes and stable positioning, with rising Global inflows 40.8 5,271.3 2.23% implied volatility Global outflows -20.5 -3,821.5 -1.62% Daily gold trading volumes fell meaningfully in October, to US$159bn, below the y-t-d average of US$186bn. This was *As of 31/10/2020 ‘Global Inflows’ refers to the sum of changes of all funds that saw a net increase in ounces held over a given period (eg, month, quarter, largely driven by lower COMEX gold futures volumes— etc.). Conversely, ‘global outflows’ aggregates changes from funds that saw 29% below the 2020 daily average. Net long positioning, ounces held decline over the same period. via the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report for gold Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council COMEX futures, showed stable positioning at 766t 1 3 We regularly review the global gold-backed ETF universe and adjust the list of As noted in our Gold mid-year outlook that—opportunity cost is one of the four funds and holdings based on newly available data and information. key drivers of gold demand. 2 Net longs represent Money Manager and Other Net long positioning in the COMEX futures market. 01 Regional Flows1 Long-term trends • Holdings in European funds increased by 20.2t • Collective gold ETF flows have added US$57bn y-t-d (US$1.4bn, 1.4% AUM) through October • North American funds had inflows of 1.8t (US$166mn, • Holdings in both tonnage and value terms continue to 0.1%) reach new highs • Funds listed in Asia saw holdings rise by 1.1t (US$76mn, • North American funds represent nearly 2/3 of global net 1.0%) inflows on the year. • Other regions had outflows flows of 2.8t (US$144mn, 3.8%). Table 3: Q3 2020 total gold-backed ETF flows Total AUM Change Flows Flows (% (bn) tonnes (US$mn) AUM) Table 2: 2020 Flows by country* North Total AUM Holdings October Flows 2020 America 126.8 190.9 11,765.5 9.28% Country (US$mn) tonnes (US$mn) Flows Europe 97.3 54.9 3,033.1 3.12% US 121,717 2,010.5 150.8 36,079.1 Asia 7.3 20.7 1,275.2 17.37% UK 47,488 780.2 930.8 11,349.7 Other 4.0 6.1 357.6 9.01% Germany 23,742 385.0 153.9 1,269.0 Total 235.4 272.5 16,431.4 6.98% Switzerland 22,506 361.9 387.3 1,632.0 Global inflows 293.9 24,795.6 10.53% Canada 4,814 78.9 15.0 800.1 Global China P.R. outflows -21.3 -8,364.2 -3.55% Mainland 4,104 68.2 7.6 1,298.6 *As of 31/10/2020 ‘Global Inflows’ refers to the sum of changes of all funds France 3,694 63.8 -166.5 2,107.1 that saw a net increase in ounces held over a given period (eg, month, quarter, etc.). Conversely, ‘global outflows’ aggregates changes from funds that saw Australia 2,234 36.5 36.6 826.8 ounces held decline over the same period. South Africa 1,667 27.9 42.8 624.7 Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council India 1,446 27.0 -172.0 110.8 Japan 1,264 20.6 25.2 368.0 Italy 408 6.4 19.1 170.9 Ireland 390 6.0 27.4 347.2 Table 4: YTD 2020 total gold-backed ETF flows Hong Kong SAR 221 3.7 0.0 37.2 Total AUM Change Flows Flows (% (bn) tonnes (US$mn) AUM) Turkey 79 1.5 -8.7 40.4 North Liechtenstein 49 0.8 0.1 0.0 America 126.5 650.9 36,879.2 29.15% Saudi Arabia 31 0.5 0.0 29.1 Europe 98.3 312.1 16,875.9 17.17% Malaysia 26 0.6 0.4 13.5 Asia 7.3 41.1 2,336.0 32.08% Thailand 0 0 0 -6.0 Other 3.8 17.9 1,007.2 26.58% *As of 31/10/2020 Total 235.9 1,022.0 57,098.3 24.21% Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Global inflows 1,060.0 86,538.5 36.69% Global outflows -38.1 -29,440.2 -12.48% *As of 31/10/2020 ‘Global Inflows’ refers to the sum of changes of all funds that saw a net increase in ounces held over a given period (eg, month, quarter, etc.). Conversely, ‘global outflows’ aggregates changes from funds that saw ounces held decline over the same period. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Global gold-backed ETF flows | October 2020 02 Individual flows Relevant Charts • In North America, iShares Gold Trust added 9.0t Chart 1: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) flows by (US$557mn, 1.8%), followed by SPDR® Gold month* MiniShares4 which grew by 2.5t (US$152mn, 4.3%) as Flows ($bn) SPDR® Gold Shares led global outflows, losing 11.2t 10.0 (US$648mn, 0.8%) 8.0 • In Europe, WisdomTree Physical Gold GBP Hedged added 10.2t (US$633mn, 88%), followed by Invesco 6.0 Physical Gold ETC, which added 3.0t (US$182mn, 1.3%). 4.0 Both funds are listed in the UK. In France, Amundi 2.0 Physical Gold led European outflows with 2.7t (US$167mn, 4.3%) coming out of the fund 0.0 • In other regions, 1nvest Gold ETF lost 56% of its assets -2.0 with outflows of 2.3t (US$137mn) during the month -4.0 01/18 12/18 11/19 10/20 Table 5: October individual top and bottom flows North America Europe Asia Other Change Flows Flows (% Top 10 flows Country tonnes (US$mn) AUM) *As of 31/10/2020 WisdomTree Physical Gold Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council GBP Daily Hedged GB 10.2 632.8 87.7% iShares Gold Trust US 9.0 556.6 1.8% Invesco Physical Gold ETC GB 3.0 182.0 1.3% SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust US 2.5 152.4 4.3% Chart 2: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) change in Xetra-Gold DE 0.6 124.8 0.9% holdings by month* WisdomTree Physical Swiss Change (tns) Gold GB 1.7 106.3 3.1% 200 Sprott Physical Gold Trust US 1.3 84.7 1.8% Pictet CH Precious Metals 150 Fund - Physical Gold CH 1.3 79.5 8.4% 100 Xtrackers Physical Gold Euro Hedged ETC DE 0.8 76.4 2.2% 50 Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC EUR DE 0.6 39.2 1.0% 0 Change Flows Flows (% Bottom 10 Flows Country tonnes (US$mn) AUM) -50 SPDR Gold Shares US -11.2 -647.7 -0.8% -100 Amundi Physical Gold ETC FR -2.7 -166.5 -4.3% 01/18 12/18 11/19 10/20 1nvest Gold ETF ZA -2.3 -136.6 -55.7% North America Europe Asia Other Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC DE -1.6 -100.1 -7.5% *As of 31/10/2020 NewGold Issuer Ltd ZA -0.8 -35.3 -2.5% Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Graniteshares Gold Trust US -0.3 -18.7 -1.4% Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares US -0.3 -16.5 -0.6% BOC Shanghai Gold CN -0.3 -15.9 -43.4% Royal Canadian Mint - Canadian Gold Reserves CA -0.1 -14.3 -2.8% Istanbul Gold Exchange Traded Fund TR -0.1 -8.7 -9.9% *As of 31/10/2020 Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 4 Low-cost US-based gold-backed ETFs are defined as exchange traded open- Physical Swiss Gold Shares, SPDR® Gold MiniShares, Graniteshares Gold ended funds listed in the US, backed by physical gold, with annual Trust, and Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF.
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