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Fourth Quarter of 2019

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Fourth Quarter of 2019 0 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Macroeconomic Performance . 1 Inflation . 1 Exports . 3 Labor and Employment . 5 II. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Sector Performance . 6 Palay . 6 Corn . 6 Major Fruits . 7 Major Crops . 7 Fishery . 8 Forestry . 8 III. Trade and Industry Services Sector Performance . 9 Mining . 9 Business Name Registration . 11 IV. Services Sector Performance . 12 Tourism . 12 V. Peace and Security . 13 VI. Development Prospects . 14 0 MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Headline Inflation Slowed Down The headline inflation in the region (IMF) monitoring that there had been a eased to its slowest pace during the decline in global oil demand, which month of October, further dropping to - resulted to an overall drop in oil prices 0.4 percent from the -0.3 percent during the same period. In the recorded in September. This is below Philippines, this was reflected through a the target of the Bangko Sentral ng decline in the year-on-year change of Pilipinas (BSP), which is pegged at 3.0 the CPI of transport commodities, percent ± 1.0 percentage point. The dropping to -0.2 percent in October drop in inflation rate is due to the decline 2019. in the year-on-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for heavily As expected, the headline inflation weighted food and non-alcoholic picked up in December at 2.2 percent as beverages, which dropped to -3.6 the Christmas season induced more percent in October 2019 for the entire spending from consumers. Nonetheless, region. this figure was still below the ideal target of the BSP. The market price of rice continued to decline, as expected from the Meanwhile, the easing of price implementation of the Rice Tariffication pressures prompted the central bank to Law. Likewise, the price of pork cut its interest rates by 25 basis points 2 products also declined as the demand and reduce the required bank reserves decreased due to the outbreak of the in September 2019. This move was African Swine Flu. done to allow investors to borrow money at a cheaper rate and stimulate the The Department of Energy observed in national economy, which expanded by October that there had been a general 5.5% only in August 2019 against the decline in world oil prices 1. This is in line initial 6.0-7.0% target. with the International Monetary Funds’ Figure 1. Inflation Rate for Caraga 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 October November December 2018 6.2 5.6 4.2 2019 -0.4 0.7 2.2 1 Source: PSA Caraga Figure 2. Year-on-Year Changes of the Consumer Price Index in Percent by Commodity Group (2012-00) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 Food and Housing, Furnishings, Alcoholic Non- Clothing and Communicat Water, Recreation Transport Restaurants Health Household Education Beverages, Alcoholic Footwear ion Electricity, and Culture Equipment Tobacco Beverages Gas October -3.6 -0.7 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.1 3.2 3.5 5.1 11.2 16.3 November -2.5 0.2 1.4 1.1 3.5 4.6 3.8 4.0 5.0 11.2 17.4 December -0.2 4.5 1.4 0.4 3.7 4.8 3.9 4.0 3.3 11.2 17.3 Source: PSA Caraga Figure 3. Real GDP Growth of World Economies Source: IMF 1 Department of Energy. (2019, October 22). Oil Monitor as of 22 October 2019. Retrieved from https://www.doe.gov.ph/oil-monitor/oil-monitor-22-october-2019. 2 Noble, L. (2019, September 27). BSP slashes key rates a third time. Retrieved from 2 https://www.bworldonline.com/bsp-slashes-key-rates-a-third-time/ Foreign Exports Doubled, Imports Declined Both export volume and value doubled demand for nickel ore prompted export in October 2019, reaching USD 119 volume to also increased in the ports of Million compared to USD 55 Million Surigao. recorded during the same period in 2018. Among other factors, demand for On the other hand, import volume and local goods have increased in export value declined by 6 percent and markets as domestic goods are 79 percent, respectively in October 2019 perceived to be cheaper and attractive. compared to the volume and value of imports in October 2018. Contributory to the increase in region’s exports is the reactivation of the nickel The combined effect of the increase in export activities at the port of San exports and decrease in imports Roque Metals Inc. in Tubay, Agusan del indicates an expansion in the region’s Norte. Likewise, China and Japan’s high trade surplus. Figure 4. Export Value in Caraga (in USD) Figure 5. Import Value in Caraga (in USD) 140,000.00 4,000,000.00 120,000.00 3,500,000.00 100,000.00 3,000,000.00 2,500,000.00 80,000.00 2,000,000.00 60,000.00 1,500,000.00 40,000.00 1,000,000.00 20,000.00 500,000.00 - - October November December October November December 2018 55,821.79 61,050.15 25,131.58 2018 2,836,877.00 3,754,157.00 3,066,313.00 2019 119,071.33 - - 2019 585,000.00 - - Source: PSA Caraga Source: PSA Caraga 3 Outbound Domestic Cargo Throughput in Agusan Ports Increased, Inbound Decreased The domestic inbound and outbound due to multiple reasons. The breakbulk cargo throughput in Agusan followed the incoming cargo decreased by general foreign trade trend movements 42.64 percent since San Miguel in the last quarter of 2019. The cargos Corporation temporarily halted the outbound from Agusan increased by shipment of their bottle cargos due to 36.35 percent. This is attributable to the the siltation at the mouth of the Agusan increase in outgoing cargos of sand and River, which is the main passageway of gravel to be used in the construction of their barge. The volume of refined roads and bridges. There was also an petroleum products unloaded at the port increase in container traffic due to the of Shell Cabadbaran and Nasipit Port rise in shipments of numerous volumes also decreased during the same period. of other general cargos and wood by- Lastly, there had been slow to zero products, such as lumber, which are growths recorded in the shipment of iron bound for Manila and Cebu. The and steel products during the last increase in shipment of fruits and quarter of 2019. vegetables also contributed to the increase in the outbound throughput. On the other hand, overall domestic imports in the ports of Surigao expanded Meanwhile, domestic cargos incoming to by 17.74 percent due to the large Agusan decreased by 35.50 percent in importation of sulfur and other inorganic 2019 compared to same quarter in 2018 fertilizers. Table 1. Domestic Inbound and Outbound Cargo Throughput in Agusan (in MT) 2018 2019 YOY Change Inbound 278,891.11 179,871.54 -35.50% Outbound 201,711.71 274,840.53 36.25% Source: PPA Agusan Table 2. Domestic Inbound Cargo Throughput in Surigao (in MT) 2018 2019 YOY Change Inbound 8,500,950.00 10,008,936.00 -17.74% Source: PPA Surigao 4 Unemployment Rate Increased The Philippine Statistics Authority Meanwhile, LFS results for the entire (PSA), through its quarterly Labor Force Philippines show that the country’s Survey (LFS) released last October employment and unemployment rates 2019, reported an increase in the stand at 95.5 percent and 4.5 percent, number of Caraganons who are respectively. This translates to an unemployed during the last quarter of increase in the national employment rate 2019, a rise to 4.6 percent from 4.0 by 0.6 percent and a remarkable 12.0 percent in the same quarter the previous percent decline in the unemployment year. This translates to approximately rate. 55,000 unemployed workers in the region. The employment rate also While the country’s employment rate is dropped from 96.0 percent in 2018 to increasing and unemployment rate is 95.4 percent in 2019. Nevertheless, the decreasing, the opposite can be said for underemployment rate significantly the region, partly due to differences in improved to 17.0 percent in 2019 from national and regional labor market 21.4 percent in 2018, which indicates dynamics. that more Caraganons are working full- time. Table 3. Labor Force Survey Results Philippines Caraga 2018 2019 Growth Rate 2018 2019 Growth Rate Employment Rate 94.90 95.50 0.63% 96.00 95.40 -0.62% Unemployment Rate 5.10 4.50 -11.76% 4.00 4.60 15.00% Underemployment Rate 13.30 13.00 -2.26% 21.40 17.00 -20.56% Source: PSA Caraga 5 6 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERY SECTOR PERFORMANCE B OR Palay and Corn Production Declined While the average farm gate prices of compared to the 19.58 recorded in palay remained at Php 15.54 per kilo 2018. Corn production in Agusan del during the last week of 2019, the Norte also dropped by 79.53 percent, region’s total palay production Dinagat Islands by 47.53 percent as well decreased. Agusan del Sur, which is as Surigao del Sur by 31.96 percent. Caraga’s major producer of palay, saw a decline in its production by 37.5 percent The National Food Authority reported a to 71,202 M.T. in the fourth quarter of decline in the rice stock inventory for 2019 from 131,921 M.T. posted in 2018. Caraga in the fourth quarter of 2019. This was due to the delayed arrival of Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate imported rice from Thailand and of the corn production slowed down in Vietnam which were earmarked to 2019.
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