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University of Alberta UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA The Impact of Forestry Practices on Water-Based Recreation in Northern Alberta CRNG MICHAEL MEISNER d A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH M PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF ïHE REQUrrCEMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT OF RUR4L ECONOMY EDMONTON, ALBERTA Fa11 1997 National Library Bibliothèque nationale 1*1 of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Weilingtoci Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Ottawa ON KI A ON4 Ganada Canada YacrriYe vmni- Our Ne Nor;e n)hhna The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant ii la National Library of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sel1 reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or elecbonic formats. la forme de microfiche/nlm, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts ftom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Forestry operations located near lakes or rivers impact the major ecological values of water clarity and recreational sportfishing through water quality changes. Changes in water quality &se fiom increased water and nutrient loadings with the removal of trees fiom the surroundhg watershed or catchent area. The forest cover acts as a regulator of the amount of water and nutnents returning to the lake or river and a disturbance, such as forestry or fire, will alter this regdation and negatively impact the aquatic ecosystem. A key nutrient released by forestry is phosphorus. In Alberta's northem boreal forests total phosphorus (TP) is known to be the key state variable regulating the biological productivity of lakes and rivers. It is believed that phosphorus additions, beyond a specific threshold, will have a negative efEect on water clarity and fish. This thesis will examine the negative forestry impact of an increase in total phosphorus on water ciarity and recreational sportnshing values in northern Alberta. A Nested Discrete Choice Travel Cost Model is estimated for 58 water-based recreational sites in the noahwestern region of Alberta. The mode1 includes recreational, water quality, fish stock and social demographic attributes to explain site choice. The analysis utilizes a Random Utility Model (RUM) fiamework which explicitly incorporates a random error term into the recreationist's indirect utility function compensating for possible meanirement error. A nested structure separating lakes and rivers is created to accornmodate for the recreational and biological differences of the riparian systems. The results indicate that northem Alberta households consider not only the services or amenities of the site (recreational attributes), but also water clarity attributes, such as Secchi depth and algae growth, as well as fish yields. The welfare analysis revealed that a decrease in water clarity represented a loss of $2.66 to $5.30 per household trip and a decrease in the fish population represented a weIfae loss ranging fiom $2.64 to $5.38 per household trip, depending on the level of impact and household size. This approach provides a hmework to examine the concem that northem lakes and rivers are becoming more eutrophic (increased algae growth) fiom human- induced factors and that the cumulative effect of forestry may exacerbate the decrease in recreational aesthetics and spordishing experiences. The loss of these aquatic values can be significant and should be incorporated, dong with other non-timber values, into the benefitfcost analysis of harvesting near lakes and rives. Forestry practices are cunently under intense scrutiny for their potential impacts upon ripaian ecosystems and Forestry Management Agreements are being augmented to protect these ecologicai services and values. ACKNO WLEDGMENTS Firstly, 1 would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. W. L. Adamowicz, for his patience, timely advice and programming experience. Without his combination of skills, expertise and practical approach to environmental vduation, this thesis would have taken longer and be logistically much more difficult. Frorn the course work that lead up to this thesis, to the thesis itself, Vic aiways kept the subject matter interesting and rewarding from a personal perspective. Secondly, 1 would like to thank Dr. Terry Veeman fiom the Department of Rural Economy and Dr. Ellie Prepas fiom the Department of Biological Sciences for participating on my thesis review panel and for their revision recommendations. 1 would dso like to pesonally thank EUie for her limnologicai experience, which reinforced the validity of the biologicd considerations made in this thesis. Others who were very key to the development and assimilation of data were Gary Scrimgeour of the SFM-NCE office who provided the lirnnological guidance, Dave Trew and Ron Tier of the Water Sciences Branch of AEP for the water chemistry parameters and Peter Boxall fiom the Canadian Forest Service for his modeling experience. All of these professionals brought the task of understanding complex biologicaf and economic rnodeling dom to the level necessary to keep the project flowing at al1 tirnes. On a smaller note, 1 would aiso like to thank the residents of GSB, Room 557D, for allowing me to infiltrate their office and monopolize their cornputer. This speeded up the overall project. Finally, 1 would Iike to forrnally thank the SFM-NCE for fimding this opportunity to explore new and exciting areas of environmental economic research. It is comforting to know that dl levels of stakeholders, fiom the govemment to industry, are willing to work together to find solutions to environmental challenges such as sustainable forestry management. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TAEILES CHAPTER 1 MTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1 1.1 Sustainable Forestry Management ..................................................... 1 1.2 The Liak to National and International Criteria and Indicators ......... 2 1.3 Forestry Impacts on Water Quality and Recreational Fishing .......... 5 1.4 Study Plan ..................................................................................... 7 CWTER2 RECREATIONAL DEMAND THEORY ...................................... 8 2.1 Benefit Memement and Recreational Demand Models .................. 8 2.1 .1 Direct and Indirect Methods .............................................. 9 2.1.2 Travel Cost Models ............................................................. 10 2.2 Discrete Choice or Random Utility Mode1 ........................................ 15 2.3 Nested Multinomial Logit Models ..................................................... 19 2.4 Mode1 Estimation ............................................................................... 22 2.5 Welfare Theory .................................................................................. 23 CHAPTER 3 THE DATA SET ............................................................................ 25 3.1 The Northem River Basins Study Data ............................................. 26 3.2 Site Visitation .................................................................................... 31 3.3 Distance Calculations ......................................................................... 33 3 -4 Recreational Attributes ...................................................................... 36 3.5 Water Quality Data ............................................................................ 36 3.6 Fish Habitat Predictions ............................................................... 37 3.7 Social Demographics ......................................................................... 42 CHAPTER 4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT.ESTIMATION AND RESULTS ..... 43 4.1 Mode1 Development ....................................................................... 43 4.1.1 Distance Variable ................................................................ 44 4.1.2 Recreationd Attributes ....................................................... 44 4.1.3 Water Quality Attributes ..................................................... 48 4.1.4 Fish Stock Attributes .......................................................... 51 4.1.5 Social Demographic Attributes ........................................... 54 4.2 Nested Mode1 Development .............................................................. 55 4.3 Estimation and Results ................................................................. 57 4.3.1 FIML Nested Discrete Choice Multinornial Logit Model .. 58 4.4 Welfare Measures .............................................................................. 63 4.4.1 The Impact of Changes in Water Quality and Fish Yields .. 64 CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY. DISCUSSION AND MODEL LIMITATIONS ...... 68 5.1 Summary ............................................................................................ 68 5.2 Mode1 Limitations .............................................................................. 69 5.3 Discussion .........................................................................................
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