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DRAFT Latvia Country Strategy 2021-2026

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DRAFT Latvia Country Strategy 2021-2026 DRAFT Latvia Country Strategy 2021-2026 PUBLIC DRAFT Table of Contents and Glossary Table of Contents Glossary of Key Terms Executive Summary 3 ABI Annual Business Investment IEA International Energy Agency CEB Central Europe and Baltics IFI International Financial Institution Latvia– EBRD Snapshot 4 CEE Central and Eastern Europe ILO International Labour Organisation CFDARP Corporate Financial Data Analysis IPO Initial Public Offering I. Implementation of Previous Engagement (2016- and Research Programme IT Information Technology 2020) 5 CHP Combined Heat and Power M&S Manufacturing & Services Key Transition Results Achieved during Previous CMDF Capital Market Development MoU Memorandum of Understanding Acceleration Fund Engagement 5 NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions Challenges to Implementation and Key Lessons CoOs Countries of Operations NECP National energy and climate plans 7 CPI Consumer Price Index NIB Nordic Investment Bank E&S Environmental & Social II. Economic Context 8 NPL Non-Performing Loans EC European Commission Macroeconomic Context and Outlook for ODA Official Development Assistance EE Energy Efficiency Strategy Period OECD Organisation for Economic Co- 8 EIB European Investment Bank operation and Development Key Transition Challenges 9 EIF European Investment Fund OSCE Organization for Security and Co- ESCO Energy service company operation in Europe III. Government Priorities and Stakeholder ESIA Environmental and Social Impact PEF Private Equity Fund Engagement 11 Assessment PPP Private-Public Partnership IV. Defining EBRD’s Latvia Country Strategy ETI Expected Transition Impact PPS Purchasing Power Standards ETS Emission Trading System Priorities 12 PR Performance Requirement EU European Union PTI Portfolio Transition Impact V. Activities and Results Framework 13 FDI Foreign Direct Investment R&D Research and Development FI Financial Institution RE Renewable Energy VI. Mapping of International Partners’ FI Financial Institutions RRF Recovery and Resilience Facility Complementarity in EBRD Business Areas 15 GDP Gross Domestic Product RSF Risk Sharing Facility GEFF Green Economy Financing Facility SME Small and Medium sized enterprises VII. Implementation Risks and Environmental and GET Green Economy Transition SOE State-owned Enterprise Social Implications 16 GHG Greenhouse Gas SPO Secondary Public Offering GVC Global Value Chains TC Technical Cooperation VIII.Donor Co-Financing Assessment 17 HPP Hydro Power Plan TPES Total Primary Energy Supply Annex 1 – Political Assessment 18 HR Human Resources VC Venture Capital ICA Industry, Commerce & Agribusiness WDI World Development Indicators ICT Information and communications WEF World Economic Forum Technology PUBLIC 2 DRAFT Executive Summary The Republic of Latvia’s commitment to and application of principles set out in Article 1 of the Agreement Establishing the Bank has continued over the period since the adoption of the previous Country Strategy. The constitutional and legislative framework for a pluralistic parliamentary democracy is in place. The separation of powers and checks and balances in the political system, and guarantees for human rights and fundamental freedoms are largely in line with international and European standards. The media are pluralistic and competitive and civil society operates independently. Elections are conducted in a manner deemed by the OSCE to be free and in line with international standards. Latvia has been a member of the European Union since 2004. Nestled between its Baltic neighbours, benefitting from EU membership and strong economic ties with its Nordic neighbours, Latvia has enjoyed rising prosperity for its citizens and convergence towards the EU average over the past decade. However, more needs to be done to complete its transition towards a knowledge-economy and fully integrate the country with its Baltic country peers to overcome the limitations of a small (albeit open) domestic market. Transition gaps are particularly acute in competitiveness (with a low capacity of companies to innovate and adopt technologies to enhance the country’s participation in GVCs), resilience (the capital market remains shallow) and green (with a high energy intensity and need to transition towards renewable energyotherthan hydro). The economy was significantly affected by the pandemic, thereby temporarily increasing EBRD’s additionality to provide support for recovery during the first part of the strategy period. In light of a strong policy response and considerable EU funding expected under the RRF and MFF, the strategy will be reviewed as part of an extended Country Strategy Delivery Review in 2023, which will be informed by an analysis of market level additionality and will consider whether the objective of pursuing Covid-19 recovery has been completed. As a consequence of such review, and the country being on a sustained recovery path, the Bank’s objectives in the remainder of the strategy period will be adjusted as needed to focus on core strategic sectors and products where the Bank’s additionality and the transition gaps are evident and material. In line with EBRD’s graduation policy, Latvia will indicate the country’s intended path and plausible paceof graduation at the appropriate time. Latvia has been a consistent beneficiary of EU structural funds and the economy will further benefit from the expected EU stimulus; the EBRD is well positioned to continue to focus on areas where it remains additional and can deliver high transition impact, including the continued support for green transition in achievement of the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions. Furthermore, the Bank will continue to stimulate the development and integration of the pan-Baltic capital market, grow the country’s investor base through the promotion of new and green instruments, and foster innovation and digitalisation to enhance the country’s competitiveness; where applicable leveraging Invest EU guarantees. Throughout, the Bank will promote regional investment and transfer of regional knowledge in the Baltic countries. The Bank will pursue the followingstrategic priorities in Latvia 2021-2026: i. Support Latvia’s Green Economy Transition; and ii. Foster Latvia’s KnowledgeEconomythrough More Diversified Sources of Private Finance. PUBLIC 3 DRAFT Latvia – EBRD Snapshot EBRD Investment Activities in Latvia (as of year-end 2020) Country Context Figures Portfolio €243m Active projects 35 Country Comparators Equity share 46% Operating assets €205m Lithuania (2.8), 3 Private Sector Share1 92% Net cum. investment €777m Population (million) (2019) 1.913 Estonia (1.3) Lithuania ABI and Operations Portfolio Composition GDP per capita (PPP, USD)3 (38,502), 32,191 (2019) Estonia 100 8 300 (38,915) 7 80 250 6 Global Competitiveness Index Lithuania 200 60 5 (WEF) (2019) 41 (39), Estonia 4 150 (out of 140 economies) (31) 40 3 100 2 20 4 Lithuania 1 (€m) Investments 50 Unemployment (%, ILO est.) 6.5 (6.5), Estonia 0 0 0 (2019) (4.6) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Youth unemployment (%, ILO ABI (left axis, €m) # of projects (right axis) Sustainable Infrastructure Financial Institutions ICA est.)4 (2019) Lithuania share of youth not in 7.9 (8.7), Estonia Portfolio Dynamics Transition Gaps 2 employment, education or (6.9) training (NEET) 300 200 Competitive 10 Lithuania Female labour force 250 8 (57.3), 150 participation (%, ILO est.)4 55.8 200 Integrated 6 Well-Governed Estonia 4 (2019) (57.6) 150 71 100 2 Lithuania 100 36 35 0 Energy intensity (TPES/GDP)5 (0.17), 20 50 0.16 50 3 (2016) Estonia Investments (€m) 0 0 Resilient Green (0.24) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Lithuania Emission intensity/GDP 0.2 (0.2), Estonia Portfolio Operating Assets Disbursments (right axis) Inclusive (kgCO2/10’$)5 (2018) Latvia CEB EBRD (0.6) 1 Cumulative Bank Investment: 5 year rolling basis on portfolio. PUBLIC 4 2 Cf. EBRD Transition Report 2020. 3 World Bank WDI. 4 International Labour Organisation (estimates). 5 IEA’s Energy Atlas. DRAFT 1. Implementation of Previous Strategy (2016-2020) 1.1. Key Transition Results Achieved during previous Country Strategy Strategic Alignment 2016-2020 Transition Impact Performance* Annual Business Investment (ABI) Technical Assistance and Investment Grants Off-track; 6% Priority 1; 4% Priority 1; Priority 2; 54% 46% € 154 m € 1 m On-track; 94% Priority 2; 96% ETI: 68.3 GET share: 38% PTI: 67.1 Priority 1: Strengthening energy security and improving energy efficiency Green Economy Transition Key Transition Results 45 60 • Supported private participation in new biomass CHP plants to generate 55,000 MWh of zero carbon electricity and save 113,850 tons CO2 per annum. 40 50 • Contributed to improved environmental standards of client private sector power generation company (Graanul 35 Invest Group), in line with international best practice ISO 50001 certificates. 30 40 • The Bank’s client fund, BaltCap Infra fund has invested in three biogas CHPs. • Signed Risk Sharing Facility targeting RE and EE projects with Citadele Banka. 25 30 • Provided €2m loan for Latvian Baltic Energy Efficiency Facility (LABEEF) to finance ESCOs based on Energy 20 Performance Contracts, as result of extended policy dialogue and successful strengthening of regulatory 15 20 framework for EPCs. Energy Performance Contract developed through TC engagement and tender processes for two EPC projects successfully finalised. 10 10 • Invested in an innovative Baltic agribusiness company, with proceeds to be used in energy efficiency 5 investments – specifically
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