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Zambia Market Update Q4 2017

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Zambia Market Update Q4 2017 RESEARCH ZAMBIA MARKET UPDATE Q4 2017 Cover Image : Mongu-Kalabo Bridge – Western Province ZambiaZAMBIA MARKET UPDATE Q4 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE | SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS | 2018 OUTLOOK Zambia Population 16,200,000 ( est) Major Cities Lusaka, Ndola, Kitwe and Livingstone Official Language English Total Area 752,614 sq km GDP Growth 3.6% ( 2016 ) Inflation 6.1.% (CSO December 2017) Key Industries Agriculture, Mining, Tourism, Construction Currency Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) Trade SADC, Comesa Associations Economic Update Inflation Zambia had a single digit inflation rate from 2006 to August 2015. However, from October 2015 the inflation rate jumped from 7% to over 14%, reaching an all time high of 22.9% in February of 2016. The inflation rate has reduced significantly over the past 18 months and was recorded at 6.1 % in December 2017. Copper Prices Source: Tradingeconomics.com | Central Statistics Office of Zambia Copper is the major export earner for the country and higher prices always boost the economy, so with prices rising above US$ 7,000 per tonne in December 2017 and rising demand for copper , the outlook is positive. Anticipated demand for copper from: • economic expansion in China, where copper is essential for its technological, energy and infrastructure development; • rising production of electric cars; • America’s planned revamping of its energy and transportation infrastructure. Cover Image: Mongu-Kalabo Bridge – Western Province Source: London Metal Exchange Zambia 2 ZAMBIA MARKET UPDATE – Q4 2017 RESEARCH GDP Growth Key Economic Indicator Comparisons 2016-2017 Impressive GDP growth nationally and 31-03-2016 31-03-2017 31-12-2017 locally over the last 13 years, with over Copper price US$ price per 4,878 5,846 7,156 5% average growth per annum since 2002, though it fell to 3.6% in 2015. tonne Estimated GDP growth for 2017 is 3.8% Inflation 22.2% 6.7% 6.1% up from 3.6% last year and the World Bank forecasts growth of 4.3% in 2018 Exchange rate ZMW / USD1.00 11.02 9.61 10.11 and 4.7% in 2019. Bank lending Rates 24-30% 26-35% 20-28% In its 10th Economic Brief for Zambia published in December 2017, the World Source: Knight Frank Research Bank noted that Zambia, like countries all over the world , borrow to finance their investment and development and Zambia has huge and immediate infrastructure needs. The report noted that that the Zambian economy continued its recovery in 2017 but that a little over 10 years after a major debt relief effort, the rapid accumulation of debt has once again put Zambia in the spotlight and “a well crafted strategy needs to be implemented to reduce the cost of borrowing, extend the terms, and diversify the sources of debt funding to ensure that economic growth has sustainable foundations”. Money Market Developments Bank lending rates now range between 20 to 30%, after the Central Bank reduced its policy rate to 11% from Source: Tradingeconomics.com | Central Statistics Office of Zambia 12.5%. The rate has been further dropped to 10.25% as at 23 November 2017. Foreign Exchange Market The Zambian Kwacha stabilised between K9 and K10 to the US Dollar over the last one year, after reaching an all time high of K12 in 2015. This is due to increasing export earnings from copper sales. More efforts are being made to expand the agricultural sector in order to diversify the economy. Manufacturing activities remain low. Source: Tradingeconomics.com | Central Statistics Office of Zambia 3 Energy Zambia is endowed with a wide range of energy resources, particularly woodlands and forests, hydropower, coal and renewable sources of energy with petroleum being the only energy source that is wholly imported. Whilst power cuts still occur they are far less then 12 months ago and business is better prepared. The Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) is the main producer and distributor of electricity in the country. Hydro power is one of the most important energy sources in the country and is generated by three major hydro-electric power stations. RDA Link Zambia 8,000 Project The country has great potential from Kenneth Kaunda and Livingstone’s hydro resources, as Zambia is estimated Roads Harry Mwaanga Nkumbula International to have 40 % of the water resources in Airports commenced in 2014 while the the SADC region, with about 6,000 MW The Government of Zambia construction of the new Copperbelt of unexploited hydro power potential, but embarked on the Link Zambia 8,000 International Airport in Ndola only about 2, 700 MW capacity installed. project (Accelerated National Roads commenced in June 2017. Construction Programme) to The latest projects include the 750MW rehabilitate the existing road network Kafue Lower Gorge and the 1,200MW and international highways linking Batoka Gorge hydroelectric power Zambia to Botswana, South Africa, plants. Other planned projects are the Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, 210MW Kalungwishi River, 600MW Tanzania, the Democratic Republic Devil’s Gorge, 500MW Mpata Gorge, of Congo and Namibia, and 850MW Luapula River hydroelectric embarked on the L 400 and C power stations. Demand for power in the 400 Projects for Lusaka and the various sectors of the economy has Copperbelt aimed at rehabilitating grown continuously over the years and and constructing the road network in is likely to increase over the coming the various townships and highways, years. for example the 321 kilometre Lusaka/Ndola dual carriageway Kenneth Kaunda International Airport Goviex Uranium acquired Dinison under construction commissioned in September 2017 is Energy Corporation uranium projects in to be completed in 2021. Chirundu and Siavonga, for the The scope for private sector proposed development of nuclear power Lusaka Decongestion Project under participation in development of airports plants. the Ministry of Local Government also exists in airfields at Chipata, Kitwe, was scheduled to commence during Kasama, Mongu, Solwezi and Mansa. Q4 2017 and is expected to take 36 months to complete. Examples include major road widening of Great East, Mosi-o-Tunya, Nangwenya, Zambezi and Alick Nkhata Roads. Airports There are four international airports and 140 aerodromes across the country. The Government has begun a program to improve the infrastructure at all international airports. Upgrade works for Lusaka’s 4 Kafue Lower Gorge Hydroelectric Power Plant ZAMBIA MARKET UPDATE – Q4 2017 RESEARCH Lusaka 20 000 18 000 Office 16 000 14 000 An increasing supply of new and 12 000 existing space on the market is forcing Landlords to offer incentives, 10 000 Under Construction shorter leases, reduce floor plate 8 000 (sqm) sizes and lower rentals in order to 6 000 Existing Space secure tenants. It is likely the market 4 000 (sqm) will witness more aggressive negotiations in 2018 to relocate 2 000 tenants out of existing buildings into - new space, on better terms. Under Existing Space Construction (sqm) Key to attracting the best tenants will (sqm) be green building solutions , quality finishes , good parking , fit out and Prime Office Space Marketed by Knight Frank Q4 2017 / Arcades, Addis Ababa, Long space planning solutions as well as Acres Triangle node recreational options for occupiers such as retail( including food ) and Retail fitness. Rising competition for shoppers and High end rentals also decreased but it The node centred around Arcades securing the best tenants ( in a tenants is unlikely these will fall further in 2018, and East Park Shopping Malls is still market!) is leading to a battle between although demand will be slow in the the busiest office area however the major shopping malls in Lusaka. first half of the year. there are increasing negatives for New strategies with owners adjusting to office users such as traffic delays, tenant demands and seeking to fill The middle sector of the market for difficult access and sub standard vacancies will be the retail story of rentals remains very active with high parking ratios. Vacancies rates are 2018. demand and a constant supply – very high in this area. typical monthly rentals are in the range Smaller established malls in the of ZMW5,000 – 10,000. secondary part of the market like A new node is emerging further west along Alick Nkhata Road close to Crossroads ,trade very well and are the United Nations Head Office 100% occupied due to size, an Investment dominated by the new ZEP- RE excellent tenant mix of service Business Park and Longacres Mall, orientated retailers and smaller sized Whilst the development of commercial presently under construction. units despite a smaller car park than property has increased the stock and ideal. promoted the beginnings of an investment market, with transactions in Mid range malls of 6,000 - 8,000 sq.m properties such as Manda Hill and in emerging suburbs improved by new East Park Shopping Malls, PWC Office roads, such as Munali Mall ( anchored Park, and Arcades Shopping Centres by Shoprite ) opening Q3 2018 and the since 2010, the market is still small. new Waterfalls ( Shoprite ) and Garden City Malls ( Pick n Pay ), opened in Q3 The property investment market has and Q4 2017 at the airport roundabout the opportunity to be an attractive on the Great East Road are likely to out option for investors, however the perform the larger malls in the short additional cost of VAT on the sale of term. commercial property and the time and costs involved in obtaining approvals ZEP -RE Business Park from the Competition and Consumer Kabulonga has emerged as a prime Residential Protection Commission presently office neighbourhood with very few inhibit the sector from growing faster vacancies, easy access, excellent The appetite for buying older houses with plots in prime areas such as and attracting more investors. transport network and very good retail options for office workers.
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