Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan
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Draft for Institutional Representative Review – Please Respond by 10 February 2017 Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan Masked Lapwing (Vanellus miles) AZA Species Survival Plan® Yellow Program AZA Species Survival Plan® Coordinator & AZA Studbook Keeper Phillip Horvey, Sedgwick County Zoo, ([email protected]) AZA Population Advisor Jessica Ray, Population Management Center, ([email protected]) 11 January 2017 Draft for Institutional Representative Review – Please Respond by 10 February 2017 Executive Summary Masked Lapwing (Vanellus miles) At the time of analyses, the masked lapwing SSP population consists of 84 birds (32 males, 51 females, and 1 unknown sex) held at 29 AZA and 1 non-AZA institutions. The Charadriiformes Taxon Advisory Group (TAG) recommended this population for management with a target population size of 100 birds in their 2016 Draft Regional Collection Plan (RCP). This population qualifies as a Yellow SSP under AZA’s current sustainability designations. These genetic analyses are based on an analytical database with pedigree assumptions intended to estimate relatedness and inbreeding. The potentially breeding population of masked lapwing is descended from an estimated eight founders and no potential founders remain. Current gene diversity is estimated at 89.32% of the founding population and is equivalent to the gene diversity found in four to five unrelated birds (FGE=4.68). A decrease in gene diversity below 90% of that in the founding population has been associated with reproduction increasingly compromised by, among other factors, lower hatch weights, and greater hatchling mortality. The population is already below 90% and is expected to continue to decline unless unrelated potential founders are imported and are bred. Without additional genetic materials, and assuming maintaining the current population size, the gene diversity is projected to decline to approximately 69% over the next 100 years. Demography Current size of population (N) – Total (Males.Females.Unknown Sex) 84 (32.51.1) Number of individuals excluded from genetic analyses 2 (0.2.0) Population size following exclusions 82 (32.49.1) Target population size (Kt) from Charadriiformes TAG 2016 RCP 100 Mean generation time (T, years) 10.0 1 Population Growth Rates (λ; lambda) : Historical / 5 –year / Projected 1.116 / 0.993 / 1.129 Genetics2 Current Potential Founders 8 0 additional Founder genome equivalents (FGE) 4.68 7.17 Gene diversity (GD %) 89.32 93.03 Population mean kinship (MK) 0.1068 - Mean inbreeding (F) 0.0684 - Effective population size/potentially breeding population (Ne / N) 0.2416 - includes founders Percentage of pedigree known before assumptions & exclusions 77.4 - Percentage of pedigree known after assumptions & exclusions 98.8 - Percentage of pedigree certain after assumptions & exclusions 95.2 - Projections Years To 90% Gene Diversity N/A Already <90% N/A Already <90% Years to 10% Loss of Gene Diversity 48 58 Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) 69.4 72.4 Assuming λ = 1.00 Assuming λ = 1.05 Target size = 100 Target size = 100 Demographic projections indicate that approximately seven to nine hatches per year would be needed to maintain the current population size for the upcoming three years (λ=1.00). To grow to the TAG recommended target population size of 100 birds over the next five years would require 10 to 13 hatches per year (λ=1.03). At this time, the population has limited space to grow and all breeding pairs should be carefully monitored as to not overproduce and be unable to place offspring. Therefore, the number of pairs recommended is intended to offset anticipated mortality and maintain the current population size. As with most SSPs, breeding recommendations are based on mean kinship values, inbreeding avoidance, preventing the linkage of rare and common alleles (as much as possible) and the logistical constraints identified by participating institutions. Summary: The SSP recommends seven breeding pairs and nine transfers to create new pairs or meet institutional requests. Recommended pairs are asked to produce only a single clutch and to contact the SSP Coordinator if additional clutches are laid. 1 Historical from life tables (N. America 1995 – 2015) / 5 – year from PopLink census report / projected from PMx stochastic 20 – year projections 2 Genetic statistics calculated from an analytical studbook (Appendix A) Masked Lapwing (Vanellus Miles) - Yellow SSP 2016 - DRAFT 1 This Program is currently a Yellow SSP and recommendations proposed are non-binding – Participation is voluntary. Dispositions to non-AZA institutions should comply with each institution's acquisition/disposition policy. Draft for Institutional Representative Review – Please Respond by 10 February 2017 Table of Contents I. Executive Summary 1 II. Description of Population Status Introduction 4 Status and Conservation 4 Analytical Population 4 Demography 4 Genetics 6 Recommendation Outcomes 7 Management Strategy 7 III. Recommendations Summary Recommendations by Studbook ID 8 ASHEBORO 11 ATLANTA 11 AUDUBON 11 BALTIM AQ 11 BIRMINGHM 12 BREVARD 12 BUSCH TAM 12 CAPE MAY 12 CHICAGOLP 13 CINCINNAT 13 COLUMBIA 13 COLUMBUS 14 DISNEY AK 14 DREHER PA 14 EL PASO 15 FT WAYNE 15 LOWRY 15 METROZOO 16 MILWAUKEE 16 NY BRONX 16 OKLAHOMA 17 OMAHA 17 PHOENIX 17 PITTS CA 17 PROVIDNCE 18 SALISBURY 18 SAN ANTON 18 SANDIEGOZ 18 SCOT NECK 19 SEATTLE 19 SEDGWICK 19 IV. Appendices A. Analytical Assumptions 20 B. Summary of Data Exports 20 C. Animal Excluded from the Potentially Breeding Population 21 D. Life Tables 21 E. Ordered Mean Kinship Lists 23 F. Descriptive Survival Statistics 24 G. Definitions 26 H. Directory of Institutional Representatives 28 Masked Lapwing (Vanellus Miles) - Yellow SSP 2016 - DRAFT 2 This Program is currently a Yellow SSP and recommendations proposed are non-binding – Participation is voluntary. Dispositions to non-AZA institutions should comply with each institution's acquisition/disposition policy. Draft for Institutional Representative Review – Please Respond by 10 February 2017 Acknowledgments The Masked Lapwing planning meeting was held 12/7/2016 at Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, IL, attended by: Phillip Horvey, SSP Coordinator and Studbook Keeper, Sedgwick County Zoo Jessica Ray, Population Biologist, Population Management Center, Lincoln Park Zoo AZA Species Survival Plan® Coordinator & Studbook Keeper: Phillip Horvey Sedgwick County Zoo [email protected] 316-266-8335 Report and Analyses prepared by: Jessica Ray Population Management Center [email protected] Cover Photo Courtesy of: Yang Zhao Sedgwick County Zoo This plan was prepared and distributed with the assistance of the AZA Population Management Center. [email protected] Masked Lapwing (Vanellus Miles) - Yellow SSP 2016 - DRAFT 3 This Program is currently a Yellow SSP and recommendations proposed are non-binding – Participation is voluntary. Dispositions to non-AZA institutions should comply with each institution's acquisition/disposition policy. Draft for Institutional Representative Review – Please Respond by 10 February 2017 Description of Population Status Masked Lapwing (Vanellus miles) Introduction: At the time of analyses, the total population of masked lapwing consists of 84 animals (32 males, 51 females, and 1 unknown sex) at 30 institutions (29 AZA and 1 non-AZA). One institution will be added to the population as a result of this plan. The Charadriiformes Taxon Advisory Group (TAG) recommended this species for management with a target population size of 100 birds in their 2016 Draft Regional Collection Plan (RCP). Under AZA’s current sustainability designations, this population qualifies as a Yellow SSP. Comprehensive genetic and demographic analyses of the North American Regional Masked Lapwing Studbook (current to 29 June 2016) were performed in December 2016 using PopLink 2.4 and PMx v. 1.4.20160920. This is the second Breeding and Transfer Plan for this population. Recommendations contained in this report supersede those of previous plans. Status and Conservation: Masked lapwings are currently listed as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List. This is due to their expansive range throughout Australia, Papua New Guinea and parts of Indonesia. They are not listed on the CITES Appendix nor are they protected under the Endangered Species Act at this time. Analytical Population: The historical pedigree of the total masked lapwing population is 22.6% unknown due to 45 birds having some portion of their pedigree unknown. Pedigree assumptions created for the 2009 Breeding and Transfer Plan were re-applied to the current database and multiple potential parentage were incorporated probabilistically (Appendix A). Following these assumptions, one bird (#279) still has an unknown pedigree. Two females were excluded from the potentially breeding population due to advanced age (Appendix C). Following these assumptions and exclusions, the potentially breeding population of masked lapwing consists of 82 individuals (32.49.1) with a 98.8% known (95.2% certain) pedigree. Demography: According to the North American Regional Studbook, the first recorded masked lapwings at an AZA facility were at the San Diego Zoo in 1978. The first recorded zoo hatches occurred shortly after in 1980, also at the San Diego Zoo. However, following these early holdings the species was not seen again until 1989 when Zoo Miami imported two males and three females. From 1989 to 1991, a reported 17 wild-hatched birds entered the North American population. Subsequently, the population began