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EMBARGOED for RELEASE: Tuesday, October 20 at 6:00 A.M Interviews with 1,028 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on October 14 - 17, 2015. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 956 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). This sample includes 628 interviews among landline respondents and 400 interviews among cell phone respondents. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, October 20 at 6:00 a.m. BASED ON 936 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 20 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 956 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. 23. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Voters Oct. 14-17, 2015 34% 27% 21% 9% 9% 1% Sept. 17-19, 2015 31% 24% 24% 10% 10% 1% Sept. 4-8, 2015 30% 24% 25% 10% 12% * August 13-16, 2015 29% 27% 23% 10% 10% * July 22-25, 2015 22% 26% 27% 13% 11% * Nov. 2-4, 2012 38% 30% 17% 9% 5% 1% Sept. 28-30, 2012 37% 25% 20% 9% 9% * Sept. 7-9, 2012 30% 27% 22% 15% 6% * Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 32% 25% 20% 11% 11% * Aug. 22-23, 2012 31% 27% 23% 10% 9% 1% June 28-July 1, 2012 28% 25% 25% 13% 9% * Mar. 24-25, 2012 24% 23% 29% 11% 12% * Feb. 10-13, 2012 22% 26% 26% 13% 13% * Jan. 11-12, 2012 24% 27% 27% 10% 12% * Oct. 14-16, 2011 28% 23% 28% 9% 12% * June 3-7, 2011 29% 25% 25% 10% 10% 1% March 11-13, 2011 28% 30% 24% 11% 7% * Oct. 5-7, 2010* 20% 22% 30% 16% 12% * Sept. 21-23, 2010* 23% 17% 31% 17% 12% * Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 37% 32% 16% 7% 8% * Oct. 17-19, 2008 34% 24% 23% 11% 8% * Sept. 5-7, 2008 30% 30% 23% 11% 6% * June 23-24, 2007 26% 28% 27% 13% 6% * Oct. 14-16 2004 36% 34% 17% 8% 4% 1% Sept. 3-5 2004 32% 32% 23% 9% 4% * Oct. 24-26 2003 19% 34% 31% 11% 4% 1% POLL 11 -2- October 14-17, 2015 3 BASED ON 291 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 134 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 425 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS-- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS. 23. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Democrats Oct. 14-17, 2015 32% 26% 22% 10% 11% * Sept. 17-19, 2015 30% 21% 26% 13% 10% * Sept. 4-8, 2015 28% 24% 26% 9% 13% * August 13-16, 2015 33% 22% 23% 11% 11% * July 22-25, 2015 18% 28% 28% 15% 11% 1% Nov. 2-4, 2012 37% 33% 17% 6% 5% 1% Sept. 28-30, 2012 39% 25% 21% 8% 7% * Sept. 7-9, 2012 30% 29% 23% 13% 6% * Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 32% 24% 23% 9% 12% * Aug. 22-23, 2012 29% 29% 24% 11% 6% 1% June 28-July 1, 2012 27% 32% 26% 9% 6% * Mar. 24-25, 2012 25% 21% 33% 10% 10% * Feb. 10-13, 2012 20% 29% 27% 11% 12% * Jan. 11-12, 2012 21% 28% 31% 10% 9% 1% Oct. 14-16, 2011 21% 22% 34% 10% 12% * June 3-7, 2011 26% 29% 29% 9% 6% 2% March 11-13, 2011 26% 30% 27% 12% 5% * Oct. 5-7, 2010* 13% 21% 35% 18% 12% * Sept. 21-23, 2010* 16% 14% 36% 19% 15% * Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 45% 34% 13% 4% 3% * Oct. 17-19, 2008 45% 23% 20% 7% 5% * Sept. 5-7, 2008 36% 30% 21% 6% 6% * June 23-24, 2007 28% 32% 27% 9% 4% * Oct. 14-16 2004 38% 27% 19% 8% 7% 1% Sept. 3-5 2004 31% 26% 23% 10% 10% * Oct. 24-26 2003 19% 29% 31% 16% 5% * POLL 11 -3- October 14-17, 2015 3 BASED ON 298 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 167 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 465 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 23. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in next year’s election-- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? Extremely Very Somewhat Not too Not at all No enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic enthusiastic opinion Registered Republicans Oct. 14-17, 2015 39% 29% 18% 7% 5% 1% Sept. 17-19, 2015 35% 30% 22% 6% 5% 1% Sept. 4-8, 2015 34% 25% 24% 9% 7% * August 13-16, 2015 28% 33% 23% 9% 7% * July 22-25, 2015 28% 27% 27% 9% 10% * Nov. 2-4, 2012 42% 28% 17% 9% 4% 1% Sept. 28-30, 2012 38% 27% 17% 11% 7% * Sept. 7-9, 2012 32% 25% 19% 17% 7% * Aug. 31-Sept. 3, 2012 35% 27% 17% 12% 8% 1% Aug. 22-23, 2012 35% 26% 22% 8% 10% * June 28-July 1, 2012 31% 20% 24% 15% 9% 1% Mar. 24-25, 2012 25% 27% 25% 13% 11% * Feb. 10-13, 2012 26% 25% 25% 15% 10% * Jan. 11-12, 2012 26% 28% 25% 12% 9% * Oct. 14-16, 2011 38% 26% 20% 7% 9% * June 3-7, 2011 38% 23% 18% 10% 10% * March 11-13, 2011 33% 31% 19% 10% 6% * Oct. 5-7, 2010* 29% 25% 25% 13% 8% * Sept. 21-23, 2010* 31% 22% 27% 13% 7% * Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, 2008 28% 32% 19% 9% 12% * Oct. 17-19, 2008 24% 26% 27% 12% 10% * Sept. 5-7, 2008 26% 28% 26% 15% 4% * June 23-24, 2007 27% 25% 27% 16% 6% * Oct. 14-16 2004 35% 42% 15% 6% 2% * Sept. 3-5 2004 31% 39% 21% 6% 3% * Oct. 24-26 2003 19% 39% 32% 7% 2% 1% POLL 11 -4- October 14-17, 2015 3 BASED ON 298 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 167 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 465 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 32. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in 2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, or Donald Trump. (RANDOM ORDER) Oct. 14-17 Sept 17-19 Sept. 4-8 Aug. 13-16 July 22-25 June 26-28 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Trump 27% 24% 32% 24% 18% 12% Carson 22% 14% 19% 9% 4% 8% Bush 8% 9% 9% 13% 15% 17% Rubio 8% 11% 3% 8% 6% 7% Huckabee 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% Paul 5% 4% 3% 6% 6% 8% Christie 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% Cruz 4% 6% 7% 5% 7% 3% Fiorina 4% 15% 3% 5% 1% 1% Kasich 3% 2% 2% 5% 4% 3% Santorum 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% Graham 1% * 1% * 1% 1% Gilmore * * * * * N/A Jindal * * 1% * 2% 2% Pataki * * * * 1% * Perry N/A N/A * 2% 3% 4% Walker N/A * 5% 8% 10% 6% Someone else (vol.) 1% * 3% 4% 4% 5% None/No one (vol.) 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% No opinion 4% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% POLL 11 -5- October 14-17, 2015 3 BASED ON 298 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 167 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 465 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 33. And who would be your second choice? FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE (Question 32) (Question 33) Trump 27% 17% Carson 22% 18% Bush 8% 10% Rubio 8% 10% Huckabee 5% 4% Paul 5% 4% Christie 4% 5% Cruz 4% 8% Fiorina 4% 6% Kasich 3% 3% Santorum 2% 1% Graham 1% 2% Gilmore * * Jindal * 1% Pataki * * Someone else (vol.) 1% 2% None/No one (vol.) 2% 6% No opinion 4% 3% 34. How satisfied are you with the field of Republican candidates running for President? Are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not satisfied at all? Oct. 14-17 July 22-25 July 22-25 2015 2015 2015 (RV) Very satisfied 32% 24% 23% Fairly satisfied 43% 51% 51% Not very satisfied 15% 18% 19% Not satisfied at all 9% 6% 6% No opinion 1% 1% 1% Feb. 10-13 Oct. 14-16 July 18-20 May 24-26 Sep. 7-9 May 4-6 2012 2011 2011 2011 2007 2007 Very satisfied 9% 18% 14% 16% 19% 20% Fairly satisfied 46% 48% 52% 45% 54% 50% Not very satisfied 31% 23% 25% 28% 19% 21% Not satisfied at all 13% 10% 9% 11% 6% 5% No opinion 1% * * 1% 1% 3% POLL 11 -6- October 14-17, 2015 3 METHODOLOGY A total of 1,028 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
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