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EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios D 044468 EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Specific Targeted Project Scentific support to policies – SSP D.3.4. Synthesis Report Due date of deliverable: 31.03.2009 Actual submission date: 14.05.2009 Start date of project: 01.01.2007 Duration: 27 months Organisation name of lead contractor for this deliverable: ATLAS Innoglobe Ltd. Workpackage leader: Andras Vag 1 Table of contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 3 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 6 The Problem .............................................................................................................................. 7 State of the Art on Environment and Forced Migration Research ......................................... 8 Approach taken in the EACH-FOR project ........................................................................... 13 Key Findings of Case Studies ................................................................................................. 16 Europe and Russia .................................................................................................................16 Spain (A. Fermin) ......................................................................................................................................... 16 Russia / Volga (A. Fermin, I. Molodikova) .................................................................................................. 18 Turkey (Z. Kadirbeyoglu) ............................................................................................................................. 20 The Balkans (A.Vag) .................................................................................................................................... 22 NIS and Central Asia .............................................................................................................24 Kyrgyzstan (E. Nasritdinov, M. Ablezova, J. Abarikova, A. Abdoubaetova).............................................. 24 Kazakhstan (D. Bulesheva, A. Joldasov) ...................................................................................................... 26 Tajikistan (P. Khakimov, M. Mahmadbekov) .............................................................................................. 28 Asia ........................................................................................................................................30 Tuvalu and New Zealand (F. Gemenne, S. Shen)......................................................................................... 30 Vietnam (O. Dunn) ....................................................................................................................................... 32 China – Three Gorges Dam (CEDEM) ......................................................................................................... 34 China – Inner Mongolia (Qian Zhang) ......................................................................................................... 36 Bangladesh (A. Poncelet).............................................................................................................................. 38 Sub-Saharan Africa ...............................................................................................................40 Mozambique (M. Stal) .................................................................................................................................. 40 Niger (T. Afifi).............................................................................................................................................. 42 Senegal (F. Bleibaum) .................................................................................................................................. 44 Ghana (K. van der Geest).............................................................................................................................. 46 Middle East and Northern Africa...........................................................................................48 Egypt (T. Afifi) ............................................................................................................................................. 48 Morocco (A. Fermin) .................................................................................................................................... 50 Western Sahara (O. Alvarez Gila, V. López de Maturana Diéguez, A. Ugalde Zaratiegui) ........................ 52 Latin America and the Caribbean ..........................................................................................54 Argentina (O. Alvarez Gila, M. Irianni, G. Velázquez, A. M. Fernández Equiza, C. García Larramendy) 54 Ecuador (O. Alvarez Gila, V. López de Maturana Diéguez, A. Ugalde Zaratiegui) .................................... 56 Hispaniola (S. Alscher) ................................................................................................................................. 58 Mexico (S. Alscher) ...................................................................................................................................... 60 Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 62 Overall Key Findings of the EACH-FOR Project .................................................................. 70 Key Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 74 Future research directions ...................................................................................................... 76 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... 79 References ................................................................................................................................ 80 2 Acknowledgements This report synthesises the work of the EACH-FOR project, supported by the European Commission and carried out by a consortium of researchers between January 2007 and March 2009. The project was coordinated by Andras Vag (ATLAS Innoglobe, Hungary). The project officer in the European Commission was Marc Goffart. The core of the project, although certainly not the only work carried out, was the case studies. The results of both the desk research and field work are summarized in this report. The case studies have been guided by Alfons Fermin, Koko Warner, Ulrike Grote, François Gemenne, and Stefan Alscher, who also carried out some of the studies. We are all extremely grateful to Halyna Zalucky for editing, formatting and commenting on all of the Case Study Reports, which provide the basis for much of this synthesis. The following scholars have also been involved in carrying out the research: Jypara Abakirova, Aigoul Abdoubaetova, Mehrigul Ablezova, Tamer Afifi, Mohamed Ait Hamza, Stefan Alscher, Óscar Álvarez Gila, Frauke Bleibaum, Dina Bulesheva, Yuner Cuevas, Olivia Dun, Thomas Faist, Brahim El Faskaoui, Johannes Frühmann, Ana María Fernández Equiza, María Celia García, Sara Hernández Herrera, Marcelino Irianni, Jill Jäger, Arustan Joldasov, Jean-Jacques Luxon, Zeynep Kadirbeyoglu, P. Sh. Khakimov, Virginia López de Maturana Diéguez, M. Sh. Mahmadbekov, Irina Molodikova, Emil Nasritdinov, Alice Poncelet, Shawn Shen, Marc Stal, Ana Ugalde Zaratiegui, Kees van der Geest, Andras Vag, Guillermo Ángel Velázquez, Qian Zhang. The scientific quality of EACH-FOR outputs has been reviewed by a scientific board consisting of Han Entzinger (Chair during the first year), Jill Jäger (Chair during the second year), Andras Vag, Hassan Bousetta, Thomas Faist, Janos Bogardi and Óscar Álvarez Gila. For their comments on the drafts of this report we are most grateful to Alfons Fermin, Óscar Álvarez Gila, Haöyna Zalucky, Stefan Alscher, Kees van der Geest and Olivia Dun. The contributions of all of these people to the results and conclusions reported here are gratefully acknowledged. We also thank once again the experts, migrants and non-migrants that responded to requests for information during the field-work, as well as those people who facilitated work in the field. In addition we are grateful to many scholars and experts attending the conference on « Environmentally Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability » in Bonn, October 2008, who provided constructive comments on the results of the EACH- FOR project. Report Editors: Jill Jäger, Johannes Frühmann, Sigrid Grünberger and Andras Vag Layout: Andreas Jäger 3 Summary The EACH-FOR (Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios) Project had two central aims: (1) to explore and describe the causes of forced migration in relation to environmental change; and (2) to provide plausible future scenarios of environmentally- induced forced migration. These specific objectives were achieved by the systematic overview and analysis of the relevant natural and human-made environment degradation processes, as well as the socio- economic, historical and demographic contexts, in the regions studied in the project; fieldwork or desk studies in 23 case study areas; and subsequent scenario development for 6 of the case study areas.
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