Eco - Migrations

VIII Skup privrednika i nauč nika ECO - MIGRATIONS Marko Ćirović Fakultet organizacionih nauka u Beogradu Abstract: This paper considers the fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of these problems are of great concern within regions and also within the international community as a whole. In the 2011, at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), experts warned that in 2020, the UN has projected that we will have 50 million environmental migrants. The Climate Institute published in 1995 the first-ever rigorous assessment of the plight of a growing number of people displaced as a result of environmental problems such as drought, soil erosion, desertification and deforestation. Key words: Enviroment, Migrations, Climate change, Eco-migrants 1. INTRODUCTION With the certainty of global warming, the term “climate refugees” is gaining popularity in public discourse. There seems to be some fear in the developed countries that they, if not flooded literally, will most certainly be flooded by “climate refugees”. From a forced migration perspective, the term is flawed for several reasons. The term “climate refugees” implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. Because one cannot completely isolate climate change as a cause however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to stipulate any numbers. Importantly, the impacts depend not only on natural exposure, but also on the vulnerability and resilience of the areas and people, including capacities to adapt. At best, we have “guesstimates” about the possible form and scope of forced migration related to climate change. Climate change will have several impacts on the environment which in turn can impact on forced migration and conflict. Gradual environmental degradation and slow-onset disasters such as drought are likely to increase due to climate change. Most vulnerable are developing countries where large sections of the population live directly from agriculture and many of these from subsistence farming. Importantly, adaptation, involving for example different land-use techniques and livelihood diversification, would lessen the need to migrate. Climate change is also likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of sudden disasters such as floods and storms. Many of the affected are particularly vulnerable (typically poor) people in developing countries. Hence, they have little mobility. Climate change impacts can impoverish them and reduce their mobility even further. As is the case with drought, sudden disaster impact depends on several political and socio- economic factors, including adaptation measures (for example flood defense infrastructure). Forced migration is also likely to result from rising sea levels, and certain low-lying island states may disappear altogether, raising difficult questions of 419 Operacioni menadžment u funkciji održivog ekonomskog rasta i razvoja Srbije 2011-2020. statelessness. Forced migration can be triggered by – and it also triggers – environmental conflicts. In transit or at the place of destination, migration can (be perceived to and/or) contribute to a competition for already scarce resources such as land and water. Most conflicts with an environmental element have historically occurred within countries. The degradation of freshwater resources can trigger competition and conflict. Sudden disasters such as storms and floods often highlight existing domestic problems, revealing weaknesses of the government in power and may thereby exacerbate conflict. Conflict potential normally depends on a range of socio-economic and political factors often similar to those that can trigger forced migration. Governance and the role of the state are often crucial factors. In fact, cooperation rather than conflict may be the response to some environmental challenges [1]. 2. DEFINITIONS Definition of refugee (1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol to the convention): “A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.” [2] Environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and disruption of seasonal weather patterns such as monsoons. It has yet to be defined in a way that allows such migrants to be distinguished from economic migrants or political refugees. The term “environmental migrant” is used somewhat interchangeably with a range of similar terms, such as “environmental refugee”, “climate refugee”, “climate migrant”. Despite problems of definition and an absence of clear-cut evidence, “environmental migration” has increased in currency as an issue of concern in the 2000s as policy- makers, environmental and social scientists attempt to conceptualize the potential societal ramifications of climate change and general environmental degradation. Definition of “eco-migrants”: “Those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life. By “environmental disruption” is meant any physical, chemical and/or biological changes in the ecosystem (or the resource base) that render it temporarily or permanently, unsuitable to support human life.” [3] 420 VIII Skup privrednika i nauč nika United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has offered protection and assistance to tens of millions of refugees, finding durable solutions for many of them. Global migration patterns have become increasingly complex in modern times, involving not just refugees, but also millions of economic migrants. But refugees and migrants, even if they often travel in the same way, are fundamentally different, and for that reason are treated very differently under modern international law. Migrants, especially economic migrants, choose to move in order to improve the future prospects of themselves and their families. Refugees have to move if they are to save their lives or preserve their freedom. They have no protection from their own state - indeed it is often their own government that is threatening to persecute them. If other countries do not let them in, and do not help them once they are in, then they may be condemning them to death - or to an intolerable life in the shadows, without sustenance and without rights. 3. ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANTS Although they do not fit the definition of refugees set out in the UN Convention, people displaced by the effects of climate change have often been termed “climate refugees” or “climate change refugees”. The term “environmental refugee” is also commonly used and an estimate 25 million people can currently be classified as such. The alarming predictions by the UN, charities and some environmentalists that between 200 million and 1 billion people could flood across international borders to escape the impacts of climate change in the next 40 years are debatable. Millions of people live in places that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. They face extreme weather conditions such as droughts or floods. Their lives and livelihoods might be threatened in new ways and create new vulnerabilities. Migration is in many developing countries a coping strategy to mitigate poverty and is already happening independent of the effects of climate change and environmental degradation. It is a selective process and the poorest and most vulnerable people are often excluded as they will find it almost impossible to move due to a lack of necessary funds or social support. Environmental migrants classify into: Voluntary migrants: people who leave a deteriorating environment that could be potentially rehabilitated. This often implies a natural hazard, like a volcano outburst. This kind of migration is not necessarily permanent. Compelled environmental emigrants: people which are affected by the gradual deterioration of their environment. These emigrants flee their homes because their base resource ecosystem is severely afflicted. Forced environmental refugees: people who leave their habitat due to loss of livelihood. These refugees are usually permanently relocated. This can have two reasons: o People are forced to leave, because their land is appropriated for the development for hydroelectric dams and other developments or the displacement of indigenous people because of expanding modern land use. o Warfare can be the cause that people have to move from their habitats. The “intentional destruction of human environments in order to strategically relocate a target population during a period of war” is called ecocide. 421 Operacioni menadžment u funkciji održivog ekonomskog

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