Eco - Migrations

V I I I S k u p p r i v r e d n i k a i n a u č n i k a

ECO - MIGRATIONS

Marko Ćirović
Fakultet organizacionih nauka u Beogradu

Abstract: This paper considers the fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of these problems are of great concern within regions and also within the international community as a whole. In the 2011, at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), experts warned that in 2020, the UN has projected that we will have 50 million environmental migrants. The Climate Institute published in 1995 the first-ever rigorous assessment of the plight of a growing number of people displaced as a result of environmental problems such as drought, soil erosion, desertification and deforestation.

Key words: Enviroment, Migrations, Climate change, Eco-migrants

1. INTRODUCTION

With the certainty of global warming, the term “climate refugees” is gaining popularity in public discourse. There seems to be some fear in the developed countries that they, if not flooded literally, will most certainly be flooded by “climate refugees”. From a forced migration perspective, the term is flawed for several reasons.

The term “climate refugees” implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. Because one cannot completely isolate climate change as a cause however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to stipulate any numbers. Importantly, the impacts depend not only on natural exposure, but also on the vulnerability and resilience of the areas and people, including capacities to adapt. At best, we have “guesstimates” about the possible form and scope of forced migration related to climate change. Climate change will have several impacts on the environment which in turn can impact on forced migration and conflict. Gradual environmental degradation and slow-onset disasters such as drought are likely to increase due to climate change. Most vulnerable are developing countries where large sections of the population live directly from agriculture and many of these from subsistence farming. Importantly, adaptation, involving for example different land-use techniques and livelihood diversification, would lessen the need to migrate. Climate change is also likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of sudden disasters such as floods and storms. Many of the affected are particularly vulnerable (typically poor) people in developing countries. Hence, they have little mobility. Climate change impacts can impoverish them and reduce their mobility even further. As is the case with drought, sudden disaster impact depends on several political and socioeconomic factors, including adaptation measures (for example flood defense infrastructure). Forced migration is also likely to result from rising sea levels, and certain low-lying island states may disappear altogether, raising difficult questions of

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Operacioni menadžment u funkciji održivog ekonomskog rasta i razvoja Srbije 2011-2020.

statelessness. Forced migration can be triggered by – and it also triggers – environmental conflicts. In transit or at the place of destination, migration can (be perceived to and/or) contribute to a competition for already scarce resources such as land and water. Most conflicts with an environmental element have historically occurred within countries. The degradation of freshwater resources can trigger competition and conflict. Sudden disasters such as storms and floods often highlight existing domestic problems, revealing weaknesses of the government in power and may thereby exacerbate conflict. Conflict potential normally depends on a range of socio-economic and political factors often similar to those that can trigger forced migration. Governance and the role of the state are often crucial factors. In fact, cooperation rather than conflict may be the response to some environmental challenges [1].

2. DEFINITIONS

Definition of refugee (1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol to the convention):

“A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.” [2]

Environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and disruption of seasonal weather patterns such as monsoons. It has yet to be defined in a way that allows such migrants to be distinguished from economic migrants or political refugees. The term “environmental migrant” is used somewhat interchangeably with a range of similar terms, such as “environmental refugee”, “climate refugee”, “climate migrant”. Despite problems of definition and an absence of clear-cut evidence, “environmental migration” has increased in currency as an issue of concern in the 2000s as policymakers, environmental and social scientists attempt to conceptualize the potential societal ramifications of climate change and general environmental degradation.

Definition of “eco-migrants”:

“Those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life. By “environmental disruption” is meant any physical, chemical and/or biological changes in the ecosystem (or the resource base) that render it temporarily or permanently, unsuitable to support human life.” [3]

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United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has offered protection and assistance to tens of millions of refugees, finding durable solutions for many of them. Global migration patterns have become increasingly complex in modern times, involving not just refugees, but also millions of economic migrants. But refugees and migrants, even if they often travel in the same way, are fundamentally different, and for that reason are treated very differently under modern international law. Migrants, especially economic migrants, choose to move in order to improve the future prospects of themselves and their families. Refugees have to move if they are to save their lives or preserve their freedom. They have no protection from their own state - indeed it is often their own government that is threatening to persecute them. If other countries do not let them in, and do not help them once they are in, then they may be condemning them to death - or to an intolerable life in the shadows, without sustenance and without rights.

3. ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANTS

Although they do not fit the definition of refugees set out in the UN Convention, people displaced by the effects of climate change have often been termed “climate refugees” or “climate change refugees”. The term “environmental refugee” is also commonly used and an estimate 25 million people can currently be classified as such. The alarming predictions by the UN, charities and some environmentalists that between 200 million and 1 billion people could flood across international borders to escape the impacts of climate change in the next 40 years are debatable. Millions of people live in places that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. They face extreme weather conditions such as droughts or floods. Their lives and livelihoods might be threatened in new ways and create new vulnerabilities. Migration is in many developing countries a coping strategy to mitigate poverty and is already happening independent of the effects of climate change and environmental degradation. It is a selective process and the poorest and most vulnerable people are often excluded as they will find it almost impossible to move due to a lack of necessary funds or social support. Environmental migrants classify into:

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Voluntary migrants: people who leave a deteriorating environment that could be potentially rehabilitated. This often implies a natural hazard, like a volcano outburst. This kind of migration is not necessarily permanent. Compelled environmental emigrants: people which are affected by the gradual deterioration of their environment. These emigrants flee their homes because their base resource ecosystem is severely afflicted. Forced environmental refugees: people who leave their habitat due to loss of livelihood. These refugees are usually permanently relocated. This can have two reasons:

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People are forced to leave, because their land is appropriated for the development for hydroelectric dams and other developments or the displacement of indigenous people because of expanding modern land use. Warfare can be the cause that people have to move from their habitats. The “intentional destruction of human environments in order to strategically relocate a target population during a period of war” is called ecocide.

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Problems:

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No legal status provided for persons who are constrained to leave their home country because of environmental factors.

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The UNHCR has a limited role in providing environmental refugees with protection and assistance. There are several reasons for this: legal mandate is restricted to the UN Refugee Convention of 1951; limited financial resources; lack of support from UN Member States who are concerned with limiting their obligations towards refugees, asylum-seekers, and migrants form the developing world.

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The widespread skepticism concerning the term “environmental refugee”.
Main environmental factors that cause people to migrate are:

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Long – term environmental degradation. Natural disasters. Major environmental accidents. Development disruptions of environment.

Reasons for migration:

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Food and Agriculture: If the 1985-onward “plateauing” of crop yields continues there will be more and more widespread shortfalls in food production while international tradable surplice will became increasingly unable to make up deficit.

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Water deficit: The population of water short countries today, 550 million are expected to increase to one billion. Deforestation: If recent trend persist, especially as concerns mounting numbers of slash and burn cultivators in the form of displaced peasants, tropical forest will likely lose another 40 to 50 of their already depleted expanse. Desertification: There are no predictions for how many people will possibly or probably be affected by desertification in 2010. But there are few signs that the overall process is abating much, let alone declining or even reversing. Population: The population of today’s developing world is projected to have grown by 1.3 billion people, a 28% increase in just 15 years and comprising 83% of the global total of 7.0 billion

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Urbanization and Mega-Cities: Between 1991 and 2010, one billion rural people are expected to migrate to mega-cities in developing countries. Unemployment: The developing countries workforce is projected to increase to 2.7 billion. Poverty: The number of people in absolute poverty are predicted to swell from 1.3 billion in 1995 to as many as 1.8 billion in 2010 although there will be a decline in proportion.

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Extreme weather events: If recent trends persist, there will be an increase in freak weather phenomena such as exceptional cyclones, storms and hot spells plus shifts in the El Nino Southern Oscillation, bringing on record floods and droughts. [4]

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Over the last several decades, evidence of human influences on climate change has become increasingly clear and compelling. There is indisputable evidence that human activities such as electricity production and transportation are adding to the concentrations of greenhouse gases that are already naturally present in the atmosphere. These heat-trapping gases are now at record-high levels in the atmosphere compared with the recent and distant past. Warming of the climate system is well documented, evident from increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is very likely the cause of most of the recent observed increase in average temperatures, and contributes to other climate changes [5].

Due largely to sea level rise and flooding of costal-zone communities, but also a result of increased droughts and disruption of rainfall regimes such as monsoonal systems, global warming could put large numbers at risk of displacement by the middle of next century if not before. Preliminary estimates indicate the total of people at risk of sea level rise in Bangladesh could be 26 million, in Egypt 12 million, in China 73 million, in India 20 million and elsewhere 31 million making an aggregate total of 162 million. At the same time at least 50 million people could be at risk through increased droughts and other climate dislocation. Examples:

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Tuvalu-an island country in the Pacific Ocean lying midway between Hawaii and Australia, the highest point over sea level reaches 4.5 meters. Other island states facing the same problem: Kiribati, Tonga, Fiji.

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Sub-Saharan Africa, the Indian sub-continent, China, Mexico and Central

Africa: desertification, drought, disruption of monsoon and other rainfall systems cause people to be put at risk of displacement.

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Alaska: about 200 villages are in serious danger of coastal erosion and flooding due to rising sea levels. West Africa: Niger - the worst-affected country, 7.1 million are hungry, with nearly half considered highly food insecure because of the loss of livestock and crops coupled with a surge in prices. In some cases families have trekked more than 600 miles to reach the capital Niamey to find work or beg for food. Others have crossed the border in Nigeria. Similarly, desperate Chadians have sought food in Libya.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] estimated that there will be 150 million environmental refugees by the year 2050; this is mainly due to coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption. 150 million is 1.5% of 2050s predicted 10 billion of the world population. Problems:

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An environmental refugee is often not solely seeking asylum because of an environmental issue. The environmental aspect is often closely related to economic and social reasons. There is a lack of evidence, that the environment can be the sole and substantive cause for migration although a linkage of the both terms is agreed on.

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There is no evidence that environmental change leads directly to millions of refugees.

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The world must confront a fundamental political challenge; sovereign nations will be asked to grant physical and political space to citizens of other countries. Given the massive numbers of environmental migrants, burden sharing and parsimony on the part of some nations will be inevitable, probably to the grievous cost of those most environmentally vulnerable.

4. CLIMAT-MIGRATION CASES 4.1. Indonesia

Island nations are often the worst equipped to deal with earthquakes and the ripple effects that stem from the shifting of tectonic plates. Sometimes, it is not even the earthquake itself that does the most damage, but the hazards directly resulting from its force. Another possible consequence included among the supplemental risks of an earthquake is flooding. While this may manifest itself in the overflow of rivers and lakes or ruptured water mains and pipes, for an island nation the obvious concern would be for flooding from ocean waters [7]. Given the name, most people tend to think of an earthquake occurring primarily on land, but the reality is that any fault line which exists between tectonic plates is subjects to tremors and quakes. This is precisely what happened in late 2004 when Mother Earth unleashed a mega thrust earthquake of magnitude 9.0 on a fault in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Indonesia. The result was a tsunami that devastated Indonesia, Thailand and other neighboring Southeast Asian territories resulting in more than 230.000 casualties. This high death rate is owed to the high magnitude of the quake, the population density in the affected countries, and both the uncertainty of earthquake prediction and the inability of authorities to detect the tsunami until it was too late. Millions were homeless in 11 countries, making it perhaps the most destructive tsunami in history.

4.2. Haiti

Haiti earthquake on January 12, 2010, which the local government estimates killed more than 220.000 people. The magnitude 7.0 temblor destroyed more than 97.000 homes and damaged more than 188.000 structures, displacing 1.3 million people [8].

The devastating earthquake that struck Port-Au-Prince radically altered the lives of the Haitian people, as well as the international community’s engagement with the country. Billions of dollars in government and private donations have been provided from around the world. However, millions of Haitians are still desperate for food, water, shelter and protection from abuse and exploitation. Moving forward, the U.S. and UN must quickly improve its efforts for displaced Haitians by connecting with Haitian civil society groups and streamlining bureaucratic processes. The U.S. must also ensure that governmentassistance programs for Haiti are not funded at the expense of other international humanitarian emergencies.

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Some 700.000 people in Port-au-Prince are without homes or proper shelter and another 600.000 people have left the capital. This has important implications for the overall development of the country. While the main focus of the humanitarian response has been on the Port-au-Prince area, the protection of displaced and affected families in the provinces requires both immediate assistance and longer term investments. The UN should increase its efforts and support existing activities to identify the needs of displaced people throughout the country.

However, displaced people are not only in camps. Large numbers have sought refuge with relatives and friends who are quickly running out of resources. Refugees International has learned that families in Papaye, in Haiti’s central valley, now have on average 20-26 people in their homes. In Saint Marc, some 60 miles north of Port-auPrince, the mayor has been organizing community support for the internally displaced. More than 25.000 have been registered, living in some 7.000 households. Refugees International also visited a school that remained closed because it housed displaced families. Such situations create a strain on already limited resources and infrastructure.

The damages to Port-au-Prince and its surrounding area have far-reaching implications that go beyond the reconstruction of the city. What is now required is reconstruction and investment in the entire country. The extent of the challenge is made more daunting by the need to address immediate protection needs for millions of Haitians, in particular immediate shelter for the hundreds of thousands who are sleeping in the streets. Coordinating these efforts, and ensuring the appropriate sequencing of programs, from removing rubble to quickly reviving the agricultural sector, will necessitate strong leadership as well as a long-term commitment on the part of the UN, the U.S. and other international donors.

5. CONCLUSION

It is likely that developing countries in lower latitudes will continue in the near future to be the hotspots in several senses of the word. Faced with climate change, there may be some increase in planned migration that is longer-distance, longer-term and more permanent. Increased urbanization with the possibility of secondary migration can also be expected. But most of the forced migration and conflict related to climate change is likely to remain internal and regional. While the developed countries bear the main responsibility for climate change, one could question whether the dynamics of climate change, conflict and forced migration can and should be portrayed as a threat image of masses of refugees flooding over western borders. The sad truth is that there will be real floods, and if nothing changes, many of the affected will have little choice but to return and risk further flooding. From a legal point of view the term climate refugees is also inaccurate [1]. Some authors have suggested amending the 1951 Refugee Convention to accommodate for environmental displacement. Others suggest drafting a separate convention. Resorting to quick-fix solutions of new laws and policies often fulfills an action function, the need to be seen to act, but closer consideration of the existing prevention and protection possibilities may prove helpful before new measures are enacted. In cases of severe environmental degradation and sudden disasters, the human

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rights principle of non-refoulement could apply. When there is a risk of certain illtreatment, people are protected against return. A need for international protection could be met by granting humanitarian asylum or another protected status.