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Trends in Population Growth Inequality Across Subnational Jurisdictions in Canada S43 Municipal Services Between Towns TrendsTrends inin Population Population Growth Inequality across Subnational Growth Jurisdictions in Canada S41 Inequality across Subnational Jurisdictions in Canada1 Fazley siddiq School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University; Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; and John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University shira babins School of Public Administration, Dalhousie University L’apparence globale de la croissance démographique au Canada masque d’importantes inégalités de la dis- tribution de cette croissance entre les régions du pays. Dans cet article, nous montrons que ces disparités existent à la fois entre les provinces et à l’intérieur des provinces. Dans les provinces où l’augmentation de la population est élevée, les régions métropolitaines croissent plus rapidement que les régions non métropolitaines. Dans les provinces où l’augmentation est plus faible, les régions métropolitaines croissent moins rapidement, et les régions non métropolitaines qui décroissent sont plus nombreuses que dans les provinces où l’augmentation de la population est élevée. Quand on compare les données de croissance désagrégées, on note une importante inégalité dans l’augmentation ou la diminution de la population autant entre les provinces qu’entre les divisions de recensement. En évaluant l’ampleur de ce problème, nous espérons favoriser de nouveaux débats sur la question. Mots clés : croissance démographique, inégalités, volatilité, régions métropolitaines, régions non métropolitaines, divisions de recensement The overall appearance of population growth in Canada masks a serious underlying disparity in the distribution of population growth across subnational jurisdictions. This study shows there are both interprovincial and intra-provincial variations in population growth. In high-growth provinces, metropolitan areas are growing faster than non-metropolitan areas. In low-growth provinces, metropolitan areas are growing more slowly, and relatively more non-metropolitan areas are declining than in high-growth provinces. When comparing disaggregated growth rates, the study found significant inequality in the growth and decline of population across subnational jurisdictions at the provincial level, as well at the level of census divisions. The intent of the study is to expose the magnitude of the problem and stimulate further discussion. Keywords: population growth, inequality, volatility, metropolitan areas, non-metropolitan areas, census division An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 72nd International Atlantic Economic Conference in Washington, DC, 20–23 October 2011. Canadian PubliC PoliCy – analyse de Politiques, vol. xxxix, supplement/numéro sPéCial 2013 S42 Fazley Siddiq and Shira Babins introduCtion full story. Disparities also exist between different metropolitan areas and between different non-metro- he demographic composition of most indus- politan areas, and these jurisdictional disparities can Ttrialized countries is changing rapidly. The be obscured by discussions of the growth of a region proportion of seniors (age 65 and above) is expected as a cumulative whole. For example, the national to double, on average, over the next 40 years due to media has discussed the implications of Canadian low birth rates and increased life expectancy. The demographic trends related to low fertility, increased potentially significant economic consequences of longevity, and the importance of increased rates of these demographic changes pose important pub- net immigration for the entire country. Accordingly, lic policy challenges for the countries involved much talk has centered around rising health care (Fougère and Mérette 1999). In Canada, these costs and the need for positive inflows of immi- changes will result in serious labour shortages in grants. As important as these discussions are, they the coming years (Verbik and Lasanowski 2007). are based on patterns observed and projected at the For example, it is estimated that sometime towards national level, where overall population growth the middle of this decade in Canada, there will be between 1986 and 2010 was 31 percent. more skilled jobs than people willing and available to work (McNiven 2008).1 Discrepancies arise when analyzing the growth and trends at the subnational level because a Not all regions in Canada, however, will be af- Canadian population growth of 31 percent over a fected by these changes in the same way. Not only quarter of a century does not translate into homo- do age structures vary by region, but Canadians geneous jurisdictional growth across the country. are a mobile people. Between 1996 and 2001, ap- Rather, the 31 percent represents the cumulation of proximately 4.5 million Canadians, or 15 percent demographic stories of singular jurisdictions across of the population aged five and over who had been Canada. Subnational trends can vary greatly by living in Canada for at least five years, changed their province and census division. In fact, magnitudes municipality of residence at least once (Malenfant et of population growth varied between negative 45 al. 2007). Canadians switch homes, neighbourhoods, percent as experienced in Stikine, British Columbia towns and cities, provinces, and countries. As people between 1986 and 2010, and growth of 186 percent move, human capital is redistributed from its place as experienced in York, Ontario over the same time of origin to its destination. Although individual period.2 reasons vary, studies have found that interprovincial migration generally redistributes population from Both ends of the spectrum have their own set of relatively rural to relatively urban provinces and problems. Unexpected spurts in population can place from poorer to richer provinces (Coulombe 2006). pressure on public services, resulting in bottlenecks It is the magnitude of these flows from one time for all residents of a jurisdiction. Residents of areas period to another that is of particular interest from experiencing significant population contractions an economic, social, and public policy perspective (like Stikine), however, are more vulnerable, since and therefore deserves to be carefully analyzed. physical infrastructure, markets, local government, and the provision of certain public services may Intra-provincial migration mostly follows the become unsustainable due to the sharp decline in same patterns. One would expect the populations population (Mathur 2005). Communities experien- of poorer, more rural regions to change more dra- cing contractions in population may also witness matically than those of wealthier, more urban areas. sharp declines in real estate prices and an overall This may not always be the case, however, nor does slowdown of local businesses. Newfoundland has the movement from rural to urban regions tell the already witnessed mergers of governance and Canadian PubliC PoliCy – analyse de Politiques, vol. xxxix, supplement/numéro sPéCial 2013 Trends in Population Growth Inequality across Subnational Jurisdictions in Canada S43 municipal services between towns. For example, number of people is the principal driver of change in October 2010, the town of Little Catalina was and economic development. People are the ultimate annexed to Trinity Bay North to improve the fi- building block, the drivers of sustainability. The nancial positions and services for residents of both number of people is also the crux of the challenge towns (Newfoundland and Labrador Department of when changes are extreme, such as when there is a Municipal Affairs 2010). Other jurisdictions in the population explosion or a significant hollowing out province are currently undergoing feasibility stud- of population from an area. The intent of the study ies to determine whether additional communities is to draw attention to the magnitude of the problem should be annexed. and stimulate further discussion by identifying key areas of research. The study expands upon the lit- The overall appearance of population growth erature by providing growth rates for nearly every in Canada, therefore, masks a serious underlying census division in Canada in the period 1986–2010. disparity in the distribution of population growth This presents researchers with a comprehensive across subnational jurisdictions. On the one hand, picture of demographic trends and supplies an jurisdictions like Mirabel, York, and Calgary are additional tool for future analysis. flourishing; on the other hand, Channel-Port aux Basques in Newfoundland, Guysborough in Nova Following this introduction, the second section Scotia, and (as noted above) Stikine in British provides definitions for a number of key concepts Columbia are contracting sharply. The magnitude and a brief literature review. The third section of these extremes and the uneven subnational distri- describes data sources and the methodology. The bution of population growth across Canada warrant fourth provides an empirical assessment of trends investigation. Regional, provincial, and federal in population growth across Canada for regions, planners and economists need to understand the provinces, and subprovincial jurisdictions, as well underlying dynamics of the issue in order to project as an analysis of vertical and horizontal heterogen- the trend in population at the subnational level in iety in population growth rates. An important focus the coming decades. Once these are understood, will be on inequality in the growth and decline of appropriate measures for action can be considered.
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