Investor Presentation
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Investor presentation February 2020 Disclaimer The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein. The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec Solar ASA or any company within the Scatec Solar Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Solar Group’s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward- looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Solar Group’s expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements. 2 Contents • Introduction • The solar market • Our backlog & pipeline • Our business model • Financials • Outlook and guidance The 40 MW Mocuba solar plant, Mozambique. 3 Scatec Solar today – a frontrunner in renewable energy Scatec Solar develops, builds, owns and operates solar power plants across emerging markets IN OPERATION & PROJECT BACKLOG CAPACITY BY END ANNUAL GROWTH NUMBER OF UNDER CONSTR. & PIPELINE 2021 FROM 2022 EMPLOYEES 1.9 GW 5.8 GW 4.5 GW 1.5+ GW 345 4 Scatec Solar at a glance Key facts • We develop, build, own and operate solar plants across emerging markets 1.9 GW 5.8 GW 345 • Founded in 2007 – headquarter in Oslo, Norway • Present in 18 countries globally In operation & Backlog & Employees under construction pipeline Our locations Scatec Solar offices Plants in operation Plants under construction 5 2019: Doubled installed capacity and expanded the project pipeline Proportionate EBITDA Global footprint & targets raised – (NOK million) expanded pipeline & backlog to 5.8 GW +63% 1,571 Grid connected 609 MW in Egypt, Malaysia, Ukraine and Mozambique – 961 in total 1.2 GW in operation Industry leader in ESG risk management – also expanded to include reporting to Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) 2018 2019 6 A diversified portfolio of 1.9 GW in operation and under construction Eqypt, 390 MW South Africa, 362 MW Malaysia, 197 MW Brazil, 162 MW Honduras, 95 MW Malaysia, 197 MW Ukraine, 47 MW Jordan, 43 MW Mozambique, 40 MW Czech, 20 MW Rwanda, 9 MW IN OPERATION Ukraine, 289 MW Argentina, 117 MW South Africa, 86 MW Malaysia, 47 MW UNDER CONSTR. 7 Our success is based on our business model and a strong entrepreneurial culture Business model People • Integrated – capturing full project value • Agile and lean • Structuring and financing • Entrepreneurial culture • Financial discipline • Passionate and empowered people • Partnerships • Strong and diversified talent pool Predictable Working together Driving results Changemakers 8 The Solar Market Solar & wind expected to provide 50% of all power globally by 2050 The global power 62% sector towards 2050: 77% Increase in global Of new demand to be electricity demand covered by renewables 12,000 GW 98% New power Demand growth in generation capacity non-OECD-countries Solar from 2% to 22% Fossil from 64% to 20% market share in power market share in power Source: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2019. 10 Solar is one of the world’s most competitive sources of energy Cost of alternative energy sources (LCOE, USD/MWh) • Solar is now the lowest cost source of energy across the sun-rich regions globally • The levelised cost of solar has come down 85% 250 since 2010 – industry scale and technology • Storage and hybrid solutions are expected to 200 become increasingly important for demand 150 • New business propositions are emerging when solar is cost competitive with base load 100 50 0 Solar PV Wind Gas base Coal Nuclear Gas peak Diesel load load Source: Lazard Capital, LCOE v13, Scatec Solar. LCOE: Levelised cost of energy 11 Solar market expected to reach almost 160 GW of annual installations Multiple governmental drivers for solar demand Annual global solar demand forecast - GW Rest of Asia Latin America India Time-to- MENA USA Europe market Sub-Saharan Africa China Rest of World Climate 159 154 treaty Cost of & national energy 134 action plans Main 104 drivers 75 Employment Energy and economic security growth 45 More foreign investments 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg NEF Q4 2019 forecast by region. 12 Battery costs expected to be reduced by almost 60% by 2030 Expected battery cost development 600 GW of large scale diesel/HFO installed globally 325 Installed large scale diesel/HFO (GW) 250 255 219 183 130 130 USD/kWh 161 149 137 100 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Americas Africa Europe Asia Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019. Fully installed equipment in 2019 USD.. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, BNEF, MarketResearchFuture, Scatec Solar analysis. 13 Our backlog & pipeline Solid backlog & pipeline supporting our growth ambitions Europe & Central Asia 528 MW Backlog & Southeast Asia pipeline Africa 1,695 MW 2,591 MW 5,774 MW Latin America 2021 target 960 MW 4,500 MW All figures are as of Q4 2019 reporting date. 15 Vietnam – a high growth economy with a significant market potential • Strong economic growth – GDP growth of 7% per year • Population of close to 100 million • Strong demand for power – rapid growth in renewables • Needs to add 60-70 GW of new capacity the next 10 years • Government assessing how to further develop the renewable programme • A market that fits well with Scatec Solar’s business model 16 South Africa – accelerating renewable developments • One of Africa's largest economies – weak economic growth but in need for more power capacity • Integrated resource plan approved in Q4 2019 • 20 GW of renewable energy planned towards 2030 • Renewable tender Round 5 expected in 2020 • In addition: Short term power deficit has led to an extra power procurement round • New regulations allows for industrial self-production • Scatec Solar’s market position • Existing asset base of 448 MW • 950 MW of excellent sites ready for tenders • Strong interest for Release – public and private customers The 75 MW Dreunberg plant in South Africa started operations in 2014. 17 We are further expanding our market segments & product offerings Utility scale solar Corporate & Industrial Release – Redeployable solar • PPAs with state owned utilities • Large industrial customers • Hybrids with storage and gensets • Non-recourse project finance • Long-term PPAs with fixed prices • Off-grid or on-grid solutions 18 Release – a new growth platform for Scatec Solar • Release offers affordable, clean, reliable and flexible solar power for rent • Targeting industrial customers in emerging markets with pre- assembled and re-deployable solar parks • Large addressable market, including 600 GW in large scale diesel power plants • Targeting annual installations of 300 - 500 MW from 2022 and onwards • Equity partnership with Norfund and other partners 19 - offering reliable, flexible and low cost solar power Pre-assembled and containerised solar Quickly installed – Limited upfront investment and battery equipment modular, scalable and redeployable flexible contract duration by Scatec Solar Photo: Cambridge Energy Partners 20 Our business model Scatec Solar’s value chain We develop, build, own & operate solar plants for 20 years Project development Operations Financing Construction Ownership (IPP) • Site development & • Debt/Equity structuring • Engineering and • Maximize performance and • Asset management permitting procurement availability • Due diligence • Financial optimization • System design • Construction management • Maintenance and repair • Business case development • PPA negotiation 22 Partnering with Development Banks for project finance and risk mitigation • Multilateral development banks (DFIs) are providing project debt to infrastructure in emerging markets • DFIs are often advising governments on design of renewable programmes to promote private / public partnerships • Project structures and contracts are set up to mitigate risk and facilitate non-recourse project level debt 23 Our business model and typical project structure Simplified illustration of company structure and main contracts in place Equity co- Scatec Solar investors 100% 39%-100% Shareholders agreement Component Suppliers Land lease Land owners agreements Scatec Solar Single Purpose O&M / EPC • EPC contract Vehicle Loan agreements • O&M contract Project financing Sub-Contractors • Asset Management contract PPA agreement • Sovereign guarantee • Concession • Political risk agreement insurance (when State owned relevant) utility World State Bank/others government 24 Scatec Solar’s growth capacity continues to increase Our business model and typical project capital structure: Scatec Solar’s