Company Report: Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 公司报告:广州汽车集团 (02238 HK) +852 25095317
[email protected] 国泰君安研究 16 February 2017 Engine Powering up for Major Brands, Initiate “Accumulate” 主要品牌发力,首次覆盖并给予“收集”的投资评级 GTJA Research GTJA th Being the 6 largest automaker in China, GAC displayed the fastest rate Rating: Accumulate of growth among the top 6 automakers in China, with 2016 growth rate Initial at 26.9%. In 2016, its own Trumpchi brand and joint venture with Fiat Chrysler 评级: 收集 (首次研究) fuelled growth for the Company; we expect this trend to continue in 2017 and 2018 albeit in a less significant manner. We expect sales of passenger vehicles to increase 26.3%, 22.5% and 7.3% yoy in 2016 to 2018, 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$13.96 respectively. Basic EPS forecasted to increase 48.8%, 11.9% and 9.3% yoy in 2016 to Share price 股价: HK$12.900 2018, respectively. Significant improvement expected in 2016 due to the upturn from GAMC’s Trumpchi and GAC FCA’s Jeep. Both brands are to contribute a full year of profit in 2016 and sustain profit-making in 2017 to Stock performance 股价表现 2018. However, we forecast slower growth in 2017 and 2018 as we see 110.0 growth from GAMC and FCA normalized, and with Honda’s and Toyota’s % of return expansion plans to remain conservative. 90.0 70.0 Initiate TP at HK$13.96 with an “Accumulate”investment rating, which 50.0 represents 11.4x/10.4x 2017/2018 PER and 1.34x/1.29x 2017/2018 PBR.