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Foreign Policy Analysis
FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS (listed in catalogue as Theoretical Explanations of Foreign Policy) Pol Sci 530 Jack S. Levy Rutgers University Spring 2014 Hickman 304 848/932-1073 [email protected] http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/levy/ Office Hours: after class and by appointment This seminar focuses on how states formulate and implement their foreign policies. Foreign Policy Analysis is a well-defined subfield within the International Relations field, with its own sections in the International Studies Association and American Political Science Association (Foreign Policy Analysis and Foreign Policy, respectively). Our orientation in this course is more theoretical and process-oriented than substantive or interpretive. We focus on policy inputs and the decision-making process rather than on policy outputs. An important assumption underlying this course is that the processes through which foreign policy is made have a considerable impact on the substantive content of policy. We follow a loose a levels-of-analysis framework to organize our survey of the theoretical literature on foreign policy. We examine rational state actor, bureaucratic/ organizational, institutional, societal, and psychological models. We look at the government decision-makers, organizations, political parties, private interests, social groups, and mass publics that have an impact on foreign policy. We analyze the various constraints within which each of these sets of actors must operate, the nature of their interactions with each other and with the society as a whole, and the processes and mechanisms through which they resolve their differences and formulate policy. Although most (but not all) of our reading is written by Americans and although much of it deals primarily with American foreign policy, most of these conceptual frameworks are much more general and not restricted to the United States. -
ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON the Governor James Albert Noe and Linda Noe Laine Professor of China in World Affairs Government Department Harvard University 2021
ALASTAIR IAIN JOHNSTON The Governor James Albert Noe and Linda Noe Laine Professor of China in World Affairs Government Department Harvard University 2021 ACADEMIC POSITIONS Instructor, Government Department, Harvard University, 1992-1993 Assistant Professor of Government, Harvard University, 1993-1996 Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University, 1996-1999 Professor of Government, Harvard University, 1999— ______________________________________________________________________________________ EDUCATION BA in International Relations and History, University of Toronto (1981) MA in East Asian Studies, Harvard University (1985) PhD in Political Science, University of Michigan (1993) ______________________________________________________________________________________ PUBLICATIONS Books and Monographs China and Arms Control: Emerging Issues and Interests in the 1980s. (Ottawa, Center for Arms Control and Disarmament, Aurora Papers No. 3, 1986) Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995) (Third edition, paperback, published in 1998; Chinese edition ⽂化现实主义:中国 历史上的战略⽂化与⼤战略 published in 2015 by People’s Publishing House) Social States: China in International Institutions, 1980-2000 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008) Edited Books and Monographs Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (co-editor with Robert S. Ross) (London: Routledge Press, 1999) New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy (co-editor with Robert S. Ross) (Stanford: -
Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk Assessment Battlefield Paul Slovic [email protected]
University of Chicago Legal Forum Volume 1997 | Issue 1 Article 4 Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk Assessment Battlefield Paul Slovic [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/uclf Recommended Citation Slovic, Paul () "Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk Assessment Battlefield," University of Chicago Legal Forum: Vol. 1997: Iss. 1, Article 4. Available at: http://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/uclf/vol1997/iss1/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in University of Chicago Legal Forum by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk Assessment Battlefield Paul Slovict The practice of risk assessment has steadily increased in prominence during the past several decades, as risk managers in government and industry have sought to develop more effective ways to meet public demands for a safer and healthier environ- ment. Dozens of scientific disciplines have been mobilized to provide technical information about risk, and billions of dollars have been expended to create this information and distill it in the context of risk assessments.1 Ironically, as our society and other industrialized nations have expended this great effort to make life safer and healthier, many in the public have become more, rather than less, con- cerned about risk. These individuals see themselves as exposed to more serious risks than were faced by people in the past, and they believe that this situation is getting worse rather than better.2 Nuclear and chemical technologies (except for medicines) have been stigmatized by being perceived as entailing unnatural- ly great risks.3 As a result, it has been difficult, if not impossi- t President of Decision Research in Eugene, Oregon, and Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon. -
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE Mcdermott PERSONAL
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE McDERMOTT PERSONAL INFORMATION: Address: Department of Political Science 36 Prospect St. Brown University Providence, Rhode Island 02906 Home: 5 East St. Unit A Providence, RI 02906 Telephone: (401) 863-2833 work (401) 831-2951 home (805) 705-0465 cell (best) Email: [email protected] EDUCATION: 1991 Ph.D. Stanford University, Political Science 1990 M.A. Stanford University, Political Science 1988 M.A. Stanford University, Experimental Social Psychology 1986 M.A. Columbia University, Political Science 1984 B.A. Stanford University, Political Science, with distinction ACADEMIC HONORS AND APPOINTMENTS: 2014 Advisory Committee, Stanford Center for Advanced Study for Behavioral Sciences 2014 David and Marianna Fisher University Professor of International Relations Brown University 2013 Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences 2010-2011 Fellow, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University 2008-current Professor of Political Science, Brown University 2008-2009 Fellow, Stanford Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences 2006-current Senior Fellow, Stanford Center for Interdisciplinary Policy, Education and Research on Terrorism 2006 Visiting Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University 2004-2008 Associate Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2002-2004 Assistant Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2001-2002 Women and Public Policy Fellow, Harvard University 1999-2000 John M. Olin Center for Strategic Studies Affiliate, Harvard University 1998-2002 Assistant Professor of Government, Cornell University GRANTS AWARDED: 2003 UCSB Faculty Development Award 2001-2004 Department of Defense grant through Office of Net Assessment, Andrew Marshall director. Funding for book project on the impact of medical and psychological illness on foreign policy decision making, and a series of experiments on biology in international relations (with Professor Stephen Rosen, Harvard University). -
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE Mcdermott PERSONAL
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE McDERMOTT PERSONAL INFORMATION: Address: Department of Political Science 36 Prospect St. Brown University Providence, Rhode Island 02906 Home: 5 East St. Unit A Providence, RI 02906 Telephone: (401) 863-2833 work (401) 831-2951 home (805) 705-0465 cell Email: [email protected] EDUCATION: 1991 Ph.D. Stanford University, Political Science 1990 M.A. Stanford University, Political Science 1988 M.A. Stanford University, Experimental Social Psychology 1986 M.A. Columbia University, Political Science 1984 B.A. Stanford University, Political Science, with distinction ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS: 2010-2011 Fellow, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University 2008-current Professor of Political Science, Brown University 2008-2009 Fellow, Stanford Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences 2006-current Senior Fellow, Stanford Center for Interdisciplinary Policy, Education and Research on Terrorism 2006 Visiting Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University 2004-2008 Associate Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2002-2004 Assistant Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2001-2002 Women and Public Policy Fellow, Harvard University 1999-2000 John M. Olin Center for Strategic Studies Affiliate, Harvard University 1998-2002 Assistant Professor of Government, Cornell University GRANTS AWARDED: 2003 UCSB Faculty Development Award 2001-2004 Department of Defense grant through Office of Net Assessment, Andrew Marshall director. Funding for book project on the impact of medical and psychological illness on foreign policy decision making, and a series of experiments on biology in international relations (with Professor Stephen Rosen, Harvard University). Total grant: $500,000 2001-2002 Cornell University Peace Studies Program 2000-2001 Cornell University Peace Studies Program 1999-2000 Cornell University Peace Studies Program. -
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE Mcdermott PERSONAL INFORMATION: Address: Department of Political Science 36 Prospect St. Brown University
CURRICULUM VITAE ROSE McDERMOTT PERSONAL INFORMATION: Address: Department of Political Science 36 Prospect St. Brown University Providence, Rhode Island 02906 Home: 5 East St. Unit A Providence, RI 02906 Telephone: (401) 863-2833 work (401) 831-2951 home (805) 705-0465 cell (best) Email: [email protected] EDUCATION: 1991 Ph.D. Stanford University, Political Science 1990 M.A. Stanford University, Political Science 1988 M.A. Stanford University, Experimental Social Psychology 1986 M.A. Columbia University, Political Science 1984 B.A. Stanford University, Political Science, with distinction ACADEMIC HONORS AND APPOINTMENTS: 2014 David and Marianna Fisher University Professor of International Relations Brown University 2013 Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences 2010-2011 Fellow, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University 2008-current Professor of Political Science, Brown University 2008-2009 Fellow, Stanford Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences 2006-current Senior Fellow, Stanford Center for Interdisciplinary Policy, Education and Research on Terrorism 2006 Visiting Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University 2004-2008 Associate Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2002-2004 Assistant Professor of Political Science University of California, Santa Barbara 2001-2002 Women and Public Policy Fellow, Harvard University 1999-2000 John M. Olin Center for Strategic Studies Affiliate, Harvard University 1998-2002 Assistant Professor of Government, Cornell University GRANTS AWARDED: 2003 UCSB Faculty Development Award 2001-2004 Department of Defense grant through Office of Net Assessment, Andrew Marshall director. Funding for book project on the impact of medical and psychological illness on foreign policy decision making, and a series of experiments on biology in international relations (with Professor Stephen Rosen, Harvard University). -
PAUL SLOVIC, Ph.D
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ____________________________________ ) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ) ) Plaintiff, ) ) v. ) Civil Action ) No. 99-CV-02496 (GK) PHILIP MORRIS USA INC., ) f/k/a PHILIP MORRIS INC., et al., ) Next Scheduled Court Appearance: ) Trial (ongoing) Defendants. ) ____________________________________) REDACTED FOR PUBLIC FILING WRITTEN DIRECT EXAMINATION OF PAUL SLOVIC, Ph.D. SUBMITTED BY THE UNITED STATES PURSUANT TO ORDER #471 ________________________________________________________________________________________ Written Direct: Paul Slovic, Ph.D.: US v. PM, 99-cv-02496 (D.D.C.) (GK) 1 Q: Please state your name, for the record. 2 A: Dr. Paul Slovic. 3 Q: Dr. Slovic, please describe your higher education. 4 A: I received a Bachelors Degree in Psychology from Stanford University in 1959. I 5 obtained a Masters Degree in Psychology from the University of Michigan in 1962 and 6 my Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan in 1964. 7 Q: What is your current position? 8 A: In 1986, I became the President of Decision Research and accepted an invitation to 9 become a Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon. I have served in these 10 positions since that time. 11 Q: Have you provided the Court with a copy of your curriculum vitae? 12 A: Yes, it is U.S. Exhibit 78,541. 13 Q: What is Decision Research? 14 A: Decision Research is a nonprofit research institute, which I established with two 15 colleagues in 1976, located in Eugene, Oregon and specializing in the study of human 16 judgment, decision making, and risk assessment. The research conducted at the Institute 17 is both theoretical and applied and is sponsored by U.S. -
Investigating Social Dynamics: Power, Conformity, and Obedience
CHAPTER TWELVE Investigating Social Dynamics: Power, Conformity, and Obedience I believe that in all men's lives at certain periods, and in many men's lives at all periods between infancy and extreme old age, one of the most dominant elements is the desire to be inside the local Ring and the terror of being left outside.... Of all the pas sions the passion for the Inner Ring is most skilful in making a man who is not yet a very bad man do very bad things. —C. S. Lewis, "The Inner Ring" (1944)1 Motives and needs that ordinarily serve us well can lead us astray when they are aroused, amplified, or manipulated by situational forces that we fail to recognize as potent. This is why evil is so pervasive. Its temptation is just a small turn away, a slight detour on the path of life, a blur in our sideview mirror, leading to disaster. In trying to understand the character transformations of the good young men in the Stanford Prison Experiment, I previously outlined a number of psy chological processes that were pivotal in perverting their thoughts, feelings, per ceptions, and actions. We saw how the basic need to belong, to associate with and be accepted by others, so central to community building and family bonding, was diverted in the SPE into conformity with newly emergent norms that enabled the guards to abuse the prisoners.2 We saw further that the basic motive for consis tency between our private attitudes and public behavior allowed for dissonant commitments to be resolved and rationalized in violence against one's fellows.3 I will argue that the most dramatic instances of directed behavior change and "mind control" are not the consequence of exotic forms of influence, such as hypnosis, psychotropic drugs, or "brainwashing," but rather the systematic ma nipulation of the most mundane aspects of human nature over time in confining settings,4 It is in this sense, I believe what the English scholar C. -
Profile of Paul Slovic PROFILE
PROFILE Profile of Paul Slovic PROFILE Farooq Ahmed, Science Writer On September 2, 2015, the image of three-year-old Syrian boy, Aylan Kurdi, lying face down on a Turkish beach sparked an international effort to aid refugees. Donations to charitable organizations surged, dwarf- ing the assistance to refugees since the violence in Syria began in 2011. Kurdi, however, was not the only person to drown that day in the Aegean Sea: Both his five-year-old brother and his mother died, as did several others. According to research by psychologist Paul Slovic, the international response would have been less charitable had the public seen the other drowned refugees. “If we had seen just one more individual, our compassion toward them all might have faded,” he explains. “Several psychological phenomena, includ- ing psychic numbing, would have made us care less about their plight.” Slovic, who was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2016, studies human decision making and motivation. His Inaugural Article dissects the response to Kurdi’s death, enumerating the psycho- logical obstacles to the human ability to care about mass atrocities. The article by Slovic et al. (1) also out- Paul Slovic. Image courtesy of Paul Slovic. lines techniques that can help face humanitarian crises without having to rely solely on compassion. A pro- psychometrics. Under Coombs, Slovic used gambles fessor of psychology at the University of Oregon since to understand how people make decisions. Slovic says 1986, Slovic also serves as the president of Decision a gamble “has elements that represent the risks of all Research, an institute that he helped found. -
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-28414-1 — Judgment under Uncertainty Edited by Daniel Kahneman , Paul Slovic , Amos Tversky Frontmatter More Information Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-28414-1 — Judgment under Uncertainty Edited by Daniel Kahneman , Paul Slovic , Amos Tversky Frontmatter More Information Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases Edited by Daniel Kahneman University of British Columbia Paul Slovic Decision Research A Branch of Perceptronics, Inc. Eugene, Oregon Amos Tver sky Stanford University CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-28414-1 — Judgment under Uncertainty Edited by Daniel Kahneman , Paul Slovic , Amos Tversky Frontmatter More Information One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, ny 10006, USA Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge. It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence. www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521284141 © Cambridge University Press 1982 his publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 1982 26th printing 2017 Printed in the United Kingdom by Clays, St Ives plc A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data isbn 978-0-521-28414-1 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third–party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. -
Anthony C. Lopez
Anthony C. Lopez Anthony C. Lopez Washington State University [email protected] Office: VMMC 202X Employment Washington State University, Vancouver, Washington. 2012 – Present. Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science School of Politics, Philosophy, and Public Affairs Education Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island. 2012. Ph.D. Political Science. Sub-fields: International Relations and Political Psychology. Dissertation: “The Risk Contract of War: Offense and Defense in the Adapted Mind.” Committee: Rose McDermott (Chair, Brown), Leda Cosmides (University of California, Santa Barbara), Mark Blyth (Brown). University of Denver, Korbel School of International Studies, Colorado. 2005. M.A. Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration. Thesis: “The Role of Social Capital in State Development: The Case of Georgia.” Advisor: Ilene Grabel Pitzer College, Claremont, California. 2002. B.A. Political Studies Thesis: “From Sea to Shining Sea: A Comparison of American and Russian Territorial Expansion.” Advisor: Tom Ilgen Publications PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES Lopez, A.C. 2016. “The Evolution of War: Theory and Controversy.” International Theory 8(1): 97-139. McDermott, R., Anthony C. Lopez, and Pete Hatemi. 2017. “Neurobiological Approaches to Political Leadership.” Security Studies (March): xx-xx. Lopez, A.C. 2014. “The Hawkish Dove: Evolution and the Logic of Political Behavior” 2014. Millennium 43(1): 66-91. 1 Anthony C. Lopez Lopez, A. C. & Rose McDermott. 2012. “Adaptation, Heritability, and the Emergence of Evolutionary Political Science.” Political Psychology 33(3): 343-362. Lopez, A.C., R. McDermott & M.B. Petersen. 2011. “States in Mind: Evolution, Coalitional Psychology, and International Politics.” International Security. 36(2): 48-83. BOOK CHAPTERS “Psychology and Constructivism: Uneasy Bedfellows?” (With Rose McDermott) In Vaughn Shannon and Paul A. -
Profile of Paul Slovic PROFILE
PROFILE Profile of Paul Slovic PROFILE Farooq Ahmed, Science Writer On September 2, 2015, the image of three-year-old Syrian boy, Aylan Kurdi, lying face down on a Turkish beach sparked an international effort to aid refugees. Donations to charitable organizations surged, dwarf- ing the assistance to refugees since the violence in Syria began in 2011. Kurdi, however, was not the only person to drown that day in the Aegean Sea: Both his five-year-old brother and his mother died, as did several others. According to research by psychologist Paul Slovic, the international response would have been less charitable had the public seen the other drowned refugees. “If we had seen just one more individual, our compassion toward them all might have faded,” he explains. “Several psychological phenomena, includ- ing psychic numbing, would have made us care less about their plight.” Slovic, who was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2016, studies human decision making and motivation. His Inaugural Article dissects the response to Kurdi’s death, enumerating the psycho- logical obstacles to the human ability to care about mass atrocities. The article by Slovic et al. (1) also out- Paul Slovic. Image courtesy of Paul Slovic. lines techniques that can help face humanitarian crises without having to rely solely on compassion. A pro- psychometrics. Under Coombs, Slovic used gambles fessor of psychology at the University of Oregon since to understand how people make decisions. Slovic says 1986, Slovic also serves as the president of Decision a gamble “has elements that represent the risks of all Research, an institute that he helped found.