Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, December 14

Headlines: ● IDF Soldier Seriously Injured in Beit El Attack ● Manhunt Ongoing as Hamas Calls for ‘Day of Rage’ ● Slain Soldiers Identified: Yuval Mor Yosef, Yosef Cohen ● Hundreds Protest for PM Resignation After Attack ● After Deadly West Bank Attack, Israel Boosts Settlements ● Hawkish Israel Faction Demands Palestinian Road Ban ● Bennett Pushes Bill to Displace Families of Terrorists ● Abbas Condemns Attack, Also Blames Israel

Commentary: ● Jerusalem Post: “An Alternate Strategy for Israel in Gaza” − By Amnon Reshef and Nimrod Novick, Commanders for Israel’s Security ● Ynet: “A Delusional Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict” − By Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts December 14, 2018

Ynet IDF Soldier Seriously Injured in Beit El Attack An IDF soldier was seriously wounded Friday morning after a Palestinian man stabbed him and struck him in the head with a stone at a military post on the outskirts of Beit El, a settlement in the West Bank. According to the IDF Spokesperson's Unit, "a fight broke out between the soldier and the assailant, who stabbed the soldier and struck him with a rock from a short distance. Evidence in the field indicates that the assailant was also injured in the struggle. The incident is still being examined. IDF troops are searching the area." The soldier was evacuated to Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem.

Times of Israel Manhunt Ongoing as Hamas Calls for ‘Day of Rage’ As Israel continued its manhunt, security forces readied for possible further violence as the Palestinian terror group Hamas called for a “day of rage” to mark the anniversary of its founding. Soldiers arrested 40 Palestinians throughout the West Bank suspected of involvement in terror and rioting, 37 of whom the IDF said were known Hamas operatives. A senior Israel Defense Forces commander indicated the same Hamas terror cell was responsible for Thursday’s attack in addition to a shooting that wounded seven Israelis on Sunday night.

Jerusalem Post Slain Soldiers Identified: Yuval Mor Yosef, Yosef Cohen The IDF Spokesperson's Office identified the fallen soldiers from the Kfir Brigade on Thursday as 20 year-old Sergeant Yuval Mor Yosef, a combat soldier from Ashkelon, and 19 year-old Corporal Yosef Cohen from Beit Shemesh. Yosef and Cohen were killed in a terrorist attack on Thursday morning and two others were seriously wounded in Givat Asaf in the West Bank, just north of Jerusalem. The shots were fired by a Palestinian who got out of his car and started shooting.

Times of Israel Hundreds Protest for PM Resignation After Attack Around 1,000 right-wing Israelis demonstrated outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem on Thursday evening, with protesters calling for his resignation over his response to recent terror attacks. West Bank councils have announced their intention to strike on Sunday. Meanwhile dozens of settler youths rioted Thursday, throwing stones at passing Palestinian vehicles on Route 60 and clashing with Israeli soldiers.

Ha’aretz After Deadly West Bank Attack, Israel Boosts Settlements Netanyahu said Thursday he would legalize thousands of Jewish homes in the West Bank -- 82 new housing units in the settlement of Ofra, as well as two new industrial zones near the settlements of Avnei Hefetz and Betar Ilit. On Sunday, the Ministerial Committee for Legislation is expected to discuss a bill to legalize a series of outposts and settlements. The proposal seeks to supply settlements whose status has yet to be confirmed with services that would prevent their demolition until they receive official status.

Times of Israel Hawkish Israel Faction Demands Palestinian Road Ban A far-right faction of two Knesset lawmakers on Thursday threatened to quit the coalition and called a meeting to decide on its demands for steps against Palestinians. The threat, if carried through, could bring down the fragile ruling coalition of just 61 of the 120 Knesset members. Reports said the faction intends to issue an ultimatum to Netanyahu, conditioning their coalition membership on the closing of Route 60 — the main north-south West Bank artery — to Palestinian vehicles to prevent further drive-by shootings.

Times of Israel Bennett Pushes Bill to Displace Families of Terrorists Education Minister and Jewish Home party chair Naftali Bennett announced Thursday that he will demand coalition support for a bill calling to forcibly relocate the families of Palestinian terrorists from their homes. Bennett said he will put the bill to a vote on Sunday with the expectation of full support from the government. According to the bill, within a week of an attack or attempted attack, the IDF’s Central Command will be permitted to expel the relatives of the Palestinian assailants from their hometowns to other areas of the West Bank.

Ha’aretz Abbas Condemns Attack, Also Blames Israel Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the latest round of violence in the West Bank, criticizing both militant attacks and the tough Israeli response. Abbas' office issued a statement accusing Israel of creating a "climate" conducive to violence through its frequent military operations in Palestinian cities. The statement says that "the absence of the horizon of peace is what led to this series of violence, which we condemn and reject, and for which both sides pay a price." The statement also added: "Our permanent policy is to reject violence, incursions and terror of the settlers, and the need to stop incitement and not to create an atmosphere that contributes to the aggravation of the situation."

Jerusalem Post – December 13, 2018 An Alternate Strategy for Israel in Gaza By Amnon Reshef and Nimrod Novick, Commanders for Israel’s Security

● The recent US failure to muster a two-third’s majority for a UN resolution condemning Hamas violence was not taken lightly by the terrorist group. While it celebrated the result, it did not lose sight of the dramatic change in the numbers: Many more countries voted for censuring Hamas than voted against. The organization’s international isolation was again manifest in full view. Still, external difficulties are the least of Hamas’s concerns. Internally, it faces mounting criticism for its failure to provide the basic needs of the Gaza Strip’s two million residents – with water, electricity, health services and employment topping the list. As demonstrated by last month’s round of violence along the Israel-Gaza border, misery breeds violence. And although Hamas has managed to channel that misery against Israel, indications are that it is quite worried about an Arab Spring-like uprising turning against its rule.

● A Qatari pledge of $150 million for Gaza fuel and civil servants’ salaries helped calm the situation. However, that pledge expires in four months. This pause must be used effectively to change the situation, otherwise, another violent eruption is just a matter of time. One party has tried to do so since the end of the last war in 2014: Egypt. Supported by energetic UN envoy Nikolai Mladenov, Egypt has been working tirelessly to stabilize the situation. Regrettably, while Cairo and Mladenov deserve much credit for establishing and repeatedly restoring cessations of hostilities, they have not yet succeeded in mobilizing an Israeli and US pro-active engagement, without which no long-term stability is possible.

● In fact, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to embrace the hiatus and Egyptian engagement as an opportunity to end the cycle of violence. Initially, his “strategic response” was confined to a sigh of relief. Challenged by his more extreme coalition partners, he recently coupled this with threats to escalate military response, which he clearly and wisely wishes to avoid. Likewise, Washington’s approach has been self-contradictory. On one hand, the Trump administration declares support for Gaza stabilization; on the other, cutting funds to all Palestinians due to displeasure with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority has exacerbated Gaza instability.

● Commanders for Israel’s Security, however, has developed a comprehensive approach to getting out of the endless circle of violence. The non-partisan CIS represents the overwhelming majority of retired IDF generals, the Mossad, the Shin Bet General Security Service and their police equivalents. The organization calls on the Israeli government to discard passivity and take the initiative, by seizing on Cairo’s energetic engagement and access to all parties; persuading Washington to change course by using carrots – not just sticks – with the Palestinians; and involving like-minded Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gaza donors.

● The Proposed CIS strategy for Israel involves three interlocking components: a robust ceasefire understanding and mechanism, a comprehensive Gaza rehabilitation, and restoration of PA management of the Gaza Strip. All three, CIS argues, must be implemented concurrently, yet gradually. And this must be conditioned on strict adherence to the ceasefire and to other Hamas undertakings, including returning the remains of Israeli soldiers and releasing civilians it is holding in captivity. The logic of the three-legged-strategy stems from a reality whereby: 1) There can be no stable ceasefire without resolving the humanitarian situation, thus rehabilitation is essential; 2) Because the donor community for Gaza reconstruction refuses to strengthen Hamas or bypass the PA, restoring PA management is essential; and 3) Since these donors also refuse to see their investment go up in flames (again), a robust ceasefire mechanism is needed.

● For this approach to work, Hamas must agree to yield control over the Gaza Strip; the PA has to agree to assume responsibility for it; and Israel has to undertake to lead all its elements – including convincing Washington. Based on Israeli and other sources, CIS has reasons to believe that the more sober Hamas leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniya, have imposed their will on others so that Hamas would yield civil control to the PA, while giving up weapons may come later. However, PA President Mahmoud Abbas seems adamant in insisting on an all-or-nothing approach in which either Hamas disarms or the PA stays away.

● For that to change, Israel has to lead the gradual approach: Provide Abbas with a security safety net until Hamas is disarmed; utilize Egyptian good offices in obtaining Hamas’s commitment to restrictions on its armament, specifically to end all assault tunnel construction; persuade Washington to mobilize donors to provide Abbas with a financial safety net (including for the West Bank); and use its other potent levers to convince Abbas to take over Gaza’s civil management and help him in that effort. CIS’s 286 battle-hardened generals are not naïve about the prospects for getting all this done before another round of violence erupts. Yet, they are convinced that trying now may avert that next round, and that should this effort fail, Israel’s security challenges will not be more demanding than they are now.

● Moreover, a sincere effort to implement the combined security-diplomatic-economic approach will serve Israel’s interests, even if it does not succeed. The regional and broader international community would likely exhibit greater understanding should Israel then need to use force. Bringing all players to accept the three-layered initiative and play their part in a synchronized manner is a monumental task. Consequently, active, even aggressive, Israeli leadership and US engagement are essential to preventing another Gaza war, after which the same players would face the same challenges.

Ynet – December 14, 2018 A Delusional Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict By Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor

● Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked recently raised a new proposal for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to Shaked, Areas A and B in the West Bank (which are under the varying levels of control of the Palestinian Authority), Gaza and Jordan would form a confederation, while Area C would be annexed to Israel and Israeli citizenship granted to its hundreds of thousands of residents. Shaked acknowledged that the Palestinians will reject the proposal which, she said, sounds today like “science fiction”, but expressed her hope that the Palestinians will change their position in the future. While we are at it, we can also wait for the Messiah.

● The Palestinians believe, correctly or not, that the establishment of a state in the West Bank and Gaza alone, would mean that they were forfeiting their claim to 78% of historic Palestine. Minister Shaked now proposes that they further forfeit Area C, some 60% of the territory of the West Bank, and make do with Areas A and B. The latter actually comprise 169 enclaves within Area C and every time a Palestinian sought to cross between them they would enter sovereign Israeli territory. Minister Shaked is correct: the Palestinians will not accept the proposal. Not just today, but in the future, too. If and when a Palestinian state is established, and if it expresses interest in forming a confederation, it is not inconceivable that Jordan would also be so inclined. The question is whether the minister understands that a confederation, by definition, is a political entity comprised of independent states, not a state and enclaves within its sovereign territory. Jordan has already rejected less implausible proposals.

● As to Israel, were it not for the pesky fact that 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank, there would actually be no reason to object to its complete annexation. There is, however, a virtually wall-to-wall popular consensus in Israel against a one-state solution. Ever since then-prime minister Menachem Begin announced the “autonomy plan” in the 1970s, Israel’s right wing has been flailing about, desperately seeking some magical formula that will allow it both to annex the West Bank and preserve Israel’s Jewish character. For those of us who live in the real world, however, not in the alternative realities characteristic of science fiction tales, the dilemma is actually quite simple. Already today, some 40% of the combined populations of Israel and the West Bank are not Jewish. Had it not been for the disengagement from Gaza, there would already be an Arab majority. In their blind folly, the annexationists are burying the future of the entire Zionist enterprise. There is only one solution to the conflict that both guarantees our national future, and meets the national aspirations of the Palestinians, and it remains the two state solution. Quite simply, there is no way to escape the choice between territory and demography. Every attempt to do so to date has failed and so will Minister Shaked’s proposal.

● Moreover, in order to prevent millions of Palestinians from entering its territory each day, Israel, under Shaked’s proposal, would have to build a fence around the 169 enclaves with a whopping

total length of 1,700 km, equal to the distance from Jerusalem to Tehran. Had the minister bothered to consult with the IDF regarding the costs and size of the forces required to secure a border this long, she would have learned that her proposal is simply baseless. Most of the public does not believe that there is a realistic possibility of peace with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future and are deeply concerned about the security dangers stemming from a future agreement. Most, however, are also unwilling to acquiesce to the emergence of a binational state and thus oppose annexation. What is needed are new and realistic proposals for the interim period, such as that presented by the “Commanders for Israeli Security” (CIS), an organization comprised of some 300 of Israel’s most senior former defense officials.

● Pending a final agreement, and in order to preserve the conditions necessary to reach it, CIS proposes that the IDF continue to maintain military control over the West Bank, for security purposes, and that the security fence finally be completed, in order to prevent tens of thousands of illegal Palestinian workers, and potential terrorists, from entering Israel each day. Concurrently, a process of civil separation from the Palestinians would begin, including cessation of all settlement activity to the east of the security fence and beyond built-up areas, to its west. Assistance would be provided to those settlers who wish to return to Israel proper. Minister Shaked is a highly talented woman, with a potentially far-reaching political future. Her proposal, however, lacks a basis in any rational concept of reality. Instead of writing the equivalent of “Ayelet in Wonderland”, it behooves her to focus on proposals that have some bearing in reality.