Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment 19 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT 19.1 Introduction The purpose of this Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) is to identify, analyze and assess potential changes to biophysical and socio-economic environment that may be caused by the Vantage Pipeline Project (Project), in combination with the effects of other past, present and/or applied for future regulated projects and activities within a defined study area. This CEA is a summary of assessments from ESA discipline sections six to 18 of the ESA. Figures illustrating the location of other projects assessed are within each discipline section of the ESA. 19.2 Methodology Detailed methodology of the cumulative effects assessment can be found in Section 5. The methodology has been developed based on requirements of the National Energy Board Filing Manual (NEB 2009) and suggested methods for conducting cumulative effects assessment under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) outlined in practitioners’ guides (Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office 1994a and 1994b; Hegmann et al. 1999). Professional practice also plays a role in CEAA methodology as situations may require adaptive approaches to specific aspects of a project. The cumulative effects assessment process contains the following steps: identification of potential residual effects; determination of spatial and temporal boundaries; identification of other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future projects and activities (collectively referred to as “actions”); identification of potential cumulative effects; development of mitigation measures and strategies; analysis of the significance of the residual cumulative effects. Refer to Section 5.4 for additional information on the cumulative effects assessment methodology. 19.2.1 Spatial and Temporal Boundaries Spatial Boundaries Although most Project-related effects on the biophysical environment are expected to be limited to the Project Study Area (PSA) or Local Study Area (LSA), an expanded Regional Study Area (RSA) of 15 km on both sides of the right-of-way (ROW) was used for the CEA. This distance was chosen to place the Project within ecological context, to encompass any future related infrastructure associated with the pipeline (such as utility lines or access roads for valve sites or compressor stations), to include the local areas of influence of other actions that may interact with the Project, and to stay consistent with other cumulative effects studies recently conducted on other developments within the LSA. Temporal Boundaries The CEA took into consideration: past events contributing to existing conditions (post-settlement to current), current or present-day conditions, and reasonably foreseeable future events that may occur over the expected life span of the development (30+ years). 433 Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment 19.3 Other Projects and Activities Actions included in this section are those that: occur within the RSA, and are either currently causing effects within the RSA or may cause effects within the RSA. The information provided in this section was obtained primarily from the Atlas of Saskatchewan (University of Saskatchewan 2000), the National Topographic System map layers, and Midwest Surveys Ltd. Projects from the inclusion list (Table 19-1).were selected for CEA for each discipline, if their effects could potentially overlap with Project residual effects for that discipline. 19.3.1 Past Actions Agriculture Once covering an extensive portion of southern Saskatchewan, the cattle industry experienced a severe decline during the winter of 1906 and 1907, and never regained its former prominence. Gradually, much of the native prairie was converted over to cropland. Between the period of 1971 and 1996, an estimated 1.4 million hectares were converted to agricultural purposes. Parks and Protected Areas Saskatchewan experienced a surge in the conservation movement between the period of 1931 and 1968, resulting in the creation in numerous park and protected areas throughout the RSA. Resource Extraction Oil and gas extraction began in Saskatchewan in the 1930s. By 1985, there was already almost 30,000 km of pipelines in place in the province, and this number has been increasing steadily since. Coal mining began in southern Saskatchewan in the 1870s, peaking at approximately 400 active mines. Potash mining began in 1958. Transportation By 1930, Saskatchewan had an estimated 14,560 km of rail line. This amount gradually declined as the road and highway network expanded. By the late 1940’s, Saskatchewan maintained 185,000 km of roads. There are approximately 1,139 km of paved roads within the RSA, and an estimated 10,953 km of unpaved roads 19.3.2 Current Conditions Agriculture A major industry within the RSA, agriculture continues to be a major contributor to Saskatchewan’s economy. Cereal crops, canola and hay are the primary crops grown in the RSA. Areas of native prairie grassland are managed for grazing by either the federal or provincial government community pastures. Oil and Gas There are currently approximately 13,513 wellsites of all types, 753 facilities and 9,634 km of pipelines within the project RSA. Major pipelines currently operating within the RSA include: Foothills (oil), Keystone (oil), Many Islands (natural gas), SaskEnergy TransGas (natural gas), Wascana (oil) and South Saskatchewan (oil). Although coal and potash mines exist in southern Saskatchewan, none are located within the RSA. 434 Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment Parks and Protected Areas Representative Areas Network conservation lands located within the RSA, include Wildlife Habitat Protection Lands, private conservation lands, game preserves, Important Bird Areas, Ducks Unlimited (DU) wetlands, community pastures and Representative Areas ecological reserve. Transportation Saskatchewan has more roads per capita than any other jurisdiction in the world. The road network within the RSA includes paved highways, gravel roads and dirt trails. There are approximately 1,139 km of paved roads and approximately 10,953 km of unpaved roads within the RSA. Traffic volume on major highways is 160 to 4,520 vehicles per day. There are five rail lines within the RSA: Canadian Pacific Maple Creek main line, Great Western Railway Ltd. (GWR) Shaunavon line, GWR Fife Lake Railway, and GWR Red Coat Road and Rail Railway, and the Great Sandhills Railway (GSR) Burstall Rail Line. Utilities Approximately 2,560 km of transmission lines and 512 km of telephone lines are within the RSA. 19.3.3 Future Projects and Activities Agriculture Farming and ranching are certain to continue to be major industries within the RSA for the foreseeable future. Mineral Extraction clay, sodium sulphate, potassium sulphate, and potash resource fields have been identified within the RSA. Development of any or all of these resources within the RSA is hypothetical, and so are not further assessed. Oil and Gas Expansion and development within the oil and gas field is certain to continue. One project approved for development within the RSA is the Keystone XL Pipeline (Table 19-1). Transportation Upgrades, improvements, maintenance and expansion to the existing road network is certain to occur. The abandonment of one railway crossing is tentatively planned. Urban Growth Development and expansion of communities within the RSA is reasonably foreseeable, although likely on a localized scale. Utilities Repair and replacement of existing infrastructure is certain to occur; expansion and/or upgrade of the existing infrastructure are reasonably foreseeable. Potential also exists for the expansion of wind power facilities. 435 Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment Table 19-1 Project Inclusion List PR0JECT STATUS DESCRIPTION RATIONALE Oil and Gas Facilities Empress facility at Operational Gas plants, straddle plants and pump stations, Adjacent to the Project terminus at McNeil, Alberta operated by Encana Corp., the Empress facility at McNeil, AB BP Canada Energy Company, ConocoPhillips Canada Ltd., and ATCO Midstream. Facility 1 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Within the Project LSA near Burstall, SK Facility 2 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Richmound, SK Facility 3 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Within the Project LSA near Richmound, SK Facility 4 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Richmound, SK Facility 5 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Big Stick Lake Plain Facility 6 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Big Stick Lake Plain Facility 7 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project northwest of Piapot Creek, SK Facility 8 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Piapot Creek, SK Facility 9 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project southeast of Piapot, SK Facility 10 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near the Saskatchewan-Montana border Hess Corp. Tioga Operational Gas Plant at Tioga, ND Source of ethane for the Project Gas Plant Nova Chemical Operational Chemical Plant at Joffre, Alberta, at the Destination of ethane for the Plant terminus of the AEGS pipeline Project 12” or Larger Outside Diameter Oil and