Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment

19 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT

19.1 Introduction The purpose of this Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) is to identify, analyze and assess potential changes to biophysical and socio-economic environment that may be caused by the Vantage Pipeline Project (Project), in combination with the effects of other past, present and/or applied for future regulated projects and activities within a defined study area. This CEA is a summary of assessments from ESA discipline sections six to 18 of the ESA. Figures illustrating the location of other projects assessed are within each discipline section of the ESA.

19.2 Methodology Detailed methodology of the cumulative effects assessment can be found in Section 5. The methodology has been developed based on requirements of the Filing Manual (NEB 2009) and suggested methods for conducting cumulative effects assessment under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA) outlined in practitioners’ guides (Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office 1994a and 1994b; Hegmann et al. 1999). Professional practice also plays a role in CEAA methodology as situations may require adaptive approaches to specific aspects of a project. The cumulative effects assessment process contains the following steps:  identification of potential residual effects;  determination of spatial and temporal boundaries;  identification of other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future projects and activities (collectively referred to as “actions”);  identification of potential cumulative effects;  development of mitigation measures and strategies;  analysis of the significance of the residual cumulative effects. Refer to Section 5.4 for additional information on the cumulative effects assessment methodology.

19.2.1 Spatial and Temporal Boundaries Spatial Boundaries Although most Project-related effects on the biophysical environment are expected to be limited to the Project Study Area (PSA) or Local Study Area (LSA), an expanded Regional Study Area (RSA) of 15 km on both sides of the right-of-way (ROW) was used for the CEA. This distance was chosen to place the Project within ecological context, to encompass any future related infrastructure associated with the pipeline (such as utility lines or access roads for valve sites or compressor stations), to include the local areas of influence of other actions that may interact with the Project, and to stay consistent with other cumulative effects studies recently conducted on other developments within the LSA. Temporal Boundaries The CEA took into consideration: past events contributing to existing conditions (post-settlement to current), current or present-day conditions, and reasonably foreseeable future events that may occur over the expected life span of the development (30+ years).

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19.3 Other Projects and Activities Actions included in this section are those that: occur within the RSA, and are either currently causing effects within the RSA or may cause effects within the RSA. The information provided in this section was obtained primarily from the Atlas of (University of Saskatchewan 2000), the National Topographic System map layers, and Midwest Surveys Ltd. Projects from the inclusion list (Table 19-1).were selected for CEA for each discipline, if their effects could potentially overlap with Project residual effects for that discipline.

19.3.1 Past Actions Agriculture Once covering an extensive portion of southern Saskatchewan, the cattle industry experienced a severe decline during the winter of 1906 and 1907, and never regained its former prominence. Gradually, much of the native prairie was converted over to cropland. Between the period of 1971 and 1996, an estimated 1.4 million hectares were converted to agricultural purposes. Parks and Protected Areas Saskatchewan experienced a surge in the conservation movement between the period of 1931 and 1968, resulting in the creation in numerous park and protected areas throughout the RSA. Resource Extraction Oil and gas extraction began in Saskatchewan in the 1930s. By 1985, there was already almost 30,000 km of pipelines in place in the province, and this number has been increasing steadily since. Coal mining began in southern Saskatchewan in the 1870s, peaking at approximately 400 active mines. Potash mining began in 1958. Transportation By 1930, Saskatchewan had an estimated 14,560 km of rail line. This amount gradually declined as the road and highway network expanded. By the late 1940’s, Saskatchewan maintained 185,000 km of roads. There are approximately 1,139 km of paved roads within the RSA, and an estimated 10,953 km of unpaved roads

19.3.2 Current Conditions Agriculture A major industry within the RSA, agriculture continues to be a major contributor to Saskatchewan’s economy. Cereal crops, canola and hay are the primary crops grown in the RSA. Areas of native prairie grassland are managed for grazing by either the federal or provincial government community pastures. Oil and Gas There are currently approximately 13,513 wellsites of all types, 753 facilities and 9,634 km of pipelines within the project RSA. Major pipelines currently operating within the RSA include: Foothills (oil), Keystone (oil), Many Islands (), SaskEnergy TransGas (natural gas), Wascana (oil) and South Saskatchewan (oil). Although coal and potash mines exist in southern Saskatchewan, none are located within the RSA.

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Parks and Protected Areas Representative Areas Network conservation lands located within the RSA, include Wildlife Habitat Protection Lands, private conservation lands, game preserves, Important Bird Areas, Ducks Unlimited (DU) wetlands, community pastures and Representative Areas ecological reserve. Transportation Saskatchewan has more roads per capita than any other jurisdiction in the world. The road network within the RSA includes paved highways, gravel roads and dirt trails. There are approximately 1,139 km of paved roads and approximately 10,953 km of unpaved roads within the RSA. Traffic volume on major highways is 160 to 4,520 vehicles per day. There are five rail lines within the RSA: Canadian Pacific Maple Creek main line, Great Western Railway Ltd. (GWR) Shaunavon line, GWR , and GWR Red Coat Road and Rail Railway, and the Great Railway (GSR) Burstall Rail Line. Utilities Approximately 2,560 km of transmission lines and 512 km of telephone lines are within the RSA.

19.3.3 Future Projects and Activities Agriculture Farming and ranching are certain to continue to be major industries within the RSA for the foreseeable future. Mineral Extraction clay, sodium sulphate, potassium sulphate, and potash resource fields have been identified within the RSA. Development of any or all of these resources within the RSA is hypothetical, and so are not further assessed. Oil and Gas Expansion and development within the oil and gas field is certain to continue. One project approved for development within the RSA is the Keystone XL Pipeline (Table 19-1). Transportation Upgrades, improvements, maintenance and expansion to the existing road network is certain to occur. The abandonment of one railway crossing is tentatively planned. Urban Growth Development and expansion of communities within the RSA is reasonably foreseeable, although likely on a localized scale. Utilities Repair and replacement of existing infrastructure is certain to occur; expansion and/or upgrade of the existing infrastructure are reasonably foreseeable. Potential also exists for the expansion of wind power facilities.

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Table 19-1

Project Inclusion List PR0JECT STATUS DESCRIPTION RATIONALE Oil and Gas Facilities Empress facility at Operational Gas plants, straddle plants and pump stations, Adjacent to the Project terminus at McNeil, operated by Encana Corp., the Empress facility at McNeil, AB BP Energy Company, ConocoPhillips Canada Ltd., and ATCO Midstream. Facility 1 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Within the Project LSA near Burstall, SK Facility 2 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Richmound, SK Facility 3 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Within the Project LSA near Richmound, SK Facility 4 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Richmound, SK Facility 5 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Big Stick Lake Plain Facility 6 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Big Stick Lake Plain Facility 7 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project northwest of Piapot Creek, SK Facility 8 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near Piapot Creek, SK Facility 9 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project southeast of Piapot, SK Facility 10 Operational Oil or Gas Facility Adjacent to the Project near the Saskatchewan- border Hess Corp. Tioga Operational Gas Plant at Tioga, ND Source of ethane for the Project Gas Plant Nova Chemical Operational Chemical Plant at Joffre, Alberta, at the Destination of ethane for the Plant terminus of the AEGS pipeline Project 12” or Larger Outside Diameter Oil and Gas Pipelines Alberta Ethane Operational 304.8 mm (12-inch) ethane pipeline from the AEGS pipeline intersects the Gathering System Empress facility at McNeil, Alberta, to Joffre, Project at the Empress facility (AEGS) Alberta SaskEnergy Operational 356 mm (14-inch) natural gas pipeline trunk Intersects the Project north of TransGas pipeline line Piapot TransCanada Operational 750 km, 1067 mm (42-inch) oil pipeline from Contiguous with the Project for Foothills pipeline Caroline, Alberta, through SW Saskatchewan, 130 km to the U.S. Midwest TransCanada Commenced 3,461 km, 1219 mm (48-inch) oil pipeline Adjacent to the Project terminus at Keystone pipeline commercial from Alberta, through Saskatchewan to the Empress facility. operation in Manitoba, then to the U.S. Midwest 2010 TransCanada Approval 2,673 km, 1219 mm (36-inch) oil pipeline Contiguous with the Project for Keystone XL granted, from , Alberta, through 130 km pipeline construction in Saskatchewan, to the U.S. 2012 TransGas affiliate Operational 406 mm (16-inch) natural gas pipeline trunk Intersects the Project east of Many Islands line Shaunavon pipeline

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PR0JECT STATUS DESCRIPTION RATIONALE Wascana Pipe Line Operational 305 mm (12-inch) oil pipeline from Intersects the Project NW of Ltd. Saskatchewan to Montana Minton Transportation Infrastructure Highway 1 Operational, Average annual daily traffic of 4,520 vehicles Intersects the Project at twinned SE 20-12-23 W3M Highway 2 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 680 a vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 11-7-30 W2M Highway 4 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 180 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 17-9-13 W3M Highway 6 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 360 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 26-4-20 W2M Highway 13 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 550 vehicles, Intersects the Project at near Ponteix SE 15-9-12 W3M Highway 13 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 570 vehicles, Intersects the Project at east of Assiniboia NW 9-7-28 W2M Highway 13 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 370 vehicles, Intersects the Project at near Hwy 36 NE 32-6-27 W2M Highway 18 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 160 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 19-2-18 W2M Highway 19 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 290 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 10-8-8 W3M Highway 21 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 540 vehicles Intersects the Project at N2 11-14-26 W3M Highway 34 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 260 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 12-5-24 W2M Highway 37 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 1,140 vehicles Intersects the Project at SW 17-9-18 W3M Highway 58 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 200 vehicles Intersects the Project at NW 23-7-5 W3M Highway 321 Operational Average annual daily traffic of 590 vehicles Intersects the Project at NE 31-19-29 W3M Rail line, owner Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at unknown SW 31-2-18 W2M GWR Red Coat Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Road and Rail line SE 21-6-25 W2M GWR Red Coat Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Road and Rail line NW 15-5-24 W2M GWR Red Coat Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Road and Rail line NW 8-7-27 W2M GWR Fife Lake Rail Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Line NE 11-7-01 W3M GWR Shaunavon Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Rail Line SE 17-9-17 W3M GWR Shaunavon Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Rail Line SE 15-9-17 W3M GWR Shaunavon Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Rail Line SE 14-9-13 W3M CP Maple Creek Operational Twin track rail lines Intersects the Project at Mainline NW 16-12-23 W3M Rail line, owner Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at unknown SE 25-17-28 W3M

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PR0JECT STATUS DESCRIPTION RATIONALE GSR Burstall Rail Operational Single track rail line Intersects the Project at Line SE 21-19-29 W3M Other Projects Cypress Agri Operational Located at Shaunavon, SK Within 15 km of the Project Energy Inc. Ethanol Plant Land fill Operational Located at Shaunavon, SK Within 15 km of the Project Oil wellsites Active and non- Total number = 853 Within 15 km of the Project active Gas wellsites Active and non- Total number = 8,952 Within 15 km of the Project active Pipelines, all types Active and non- Total length = 9,634 km Within 15 km of the Project active Facilities, all types Active and non- Total number = 753 Within 15 km of the Project active Water wells Active and non- Total number = 2,610 Within 15 km of the Project domestic active Water wells Active and non- Total number = 131 Within 15 km of the Project municipal active Water wells Active and non- Total number = 6 Within 15 km of the Project irrigation active Transmission lines Operational Total length = 2,560 km Within 15 km of the Project Telephone lines Operational Total length = 512 km Within 15 km of the Project

Projects from this list were selected for CEA for each discipline, if their effects could overlap with Project residual effects.

19.4 Cumulative Effects Assessment

19.4.1 Atmospheric Environment Potential impacts to the atmospheric environment as a result of construction activities associated with the Project may overlap with effects from other activities in the RSA (particularly from construction equipment and adjacent oil and gas facilities) in term of both time and space. This may result in a temporary, localized increase in dust and/or fugitive gas emissions and/or vehicle and construction equipment emissions. Reduction in air quality will be immediate or short-term in duration and immediately reversible; therefore any potential cumulative residual effects are expected to be not significant.

19.4.2 Acoustic Environment The acoustic assessment of the two proposed pump stations indicated that the cumulative sound levels comply with the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) Directive 038 and the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) Rule 012 at the nearest residences to the two stations (refer to Section 7 of the ESA). There is some potential for the residual effects of the Project activities to interact with other projects or activities (such as roads, agriculture, and other construction activities), causing an increase in ambient sound levels. However, the limited timing of this associated with the Project should not substantially increase any existing or potential sound levels, except on a localized short-term basis. Given the short duration, low magnitude and immediate reversibility of the impact, the cumulative effect on ambient sound levels is considered to be not significant.

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19.4.3 Soil Capability Potential cumulative effects to soil capability are most likely attributed to Soil Loss and Change in Soil Quality. Such effects are likely irreversible, however, implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) and proper mitigation and monitoring will likely alleviate these issues. Section 8.3.5 and the EPP in Appendix A provide greater detail on the mitigative strategies recommended to reduce the occurrence of potential residual effects. It is expected that the mitigation measures will be effective in minimizing any adverse effects, as the success of the recommended soil handling techniques are well documented. Cumulative effects are not expected, as historical, current, and future projects are not likely to occur within the residual effects boundary (PSA) of the Project. Additionally, it is expected that any future projects occurring in the vicinity of the Project will also utilize similarly accepted soil handling mitigation measures to limit the likelihood and magnitude of potential adverse effects to soil capability.

19.4.4 Surface Water Quantity and Quality Past and present activities relating to transportation and utilities infrastructure, agriculture, and oil and gas developments have the potential to act cumulatively with the potential residual effects from the Project to alter surface water quantity and quality. Potential adverse residual effects could include the localized alteration of natural flow patterns, as well as the reduction in surface water quality. Agricultural activities may act cumulatively with the potential residual effects of the Project, by contributing to incremental increases of sedimentation, as well as to the degradation of streambanks and riparian areas. Agricultural activities will be a long-term source of impact on surface water quality, and with the successful implementation of mitigation measures, the contribution of the potential residual effects of the Project to surface water quality and quantity are expected to be minimal. The Project is adjacent to portions of the Keystone XL and Foothills pipelines. It is expected that the future construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline will implement similar mitigation measures, reclamation plans, and monitoring programs in order to minimize the seriousness of any potential adverse cumulative effects. The activities associated with the development and maintenance of transportation and utilities infrastructure could act cumulatively with the potential residual effects of the Project, resulting in negative impacts on surface water quality. These activities could contribute to increases in sedimentation and erosion from surface runoff, bank instability, and riparian degradation. It is expected that the magnitude of these cumulative residual effects can be minimized through careful planning, design, and the implementation of BMPs during construction in and around watercourses. The Project will minimize the length of roads built by utilizing existing road and utility corridors whenever possible. It is expected that the cumulative effects associated with the potential residual effects of the Project on surface water quantity and quality will not be significant. Refer to Section 9.4 for more information on the potential cumulative effects and any additional necessary mitigative strategies.

19.4.5 Wetlands Interactions between the Project and other developments in the RSA such as, oil and gas, agriculture and transportation may cause the temporary, localized increase of certain effects. Decreased water quality, habitat alteration and/or loss, surface water flow impairment and soil degradation or alteration are expected to occur. Project and existing/future pipeline construction interactions may cumulatively affect: water quality through sedimentation and release of contaminants; surface drainage through pipeline trenching; habitat structure through reduction of vegetation cover and alteration of communities; and wetland hydrological functions.

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Impacts to wetlands through a variety of agricultural practices can arise cumulatively through interactions with the Project. In general, these activities represent a periodic, long-term source of impact to wetlands. The presence of cattle can lead to increased sedimentation, alteration of vegetation communities, introduction of weed species, introduction of pathogens, and wildlife mortality (i.e., destruction of nests) (Reeves and Champion 2004, DU 2006). Road infrastructure has a large effect on local wetlands. Potential effects may include reduction of water quality due to runoff, degradation of wetland habitat from physical disturbance to vegetative communities, impairment of surface water flow through alteration of natural drainage channels, and alteration of wetland functions. Impacts from roads will vary with season and weather conditions (such as rain events), but typically represent a continuous, permanent, long-term source of impact to wetlands. Utility construction may cause small-scale, localized effects of short-term status. These effects are very similar to those of pipeline construction, and full recovery of disturbed wetlands is usually noted within one or two growing seasons (Thibodeau and Nickerson 1986, Nickerson et al. 1989). Section 11.4 provides greater detail on potential cumulative effects and mitigative strategies. Appropriate construction timing and mitigation will prevent any long-term or permanent impacts to local wetlands.

19.4.6 Fish and Fish Habitat Potential effects to fish and fish habitat may be cumulative with past, present and future activities including agriculture, transportation/utilities, and oil and gas activities in the RSA. In general, potential cumulative effects to fish and fish habitat through interactions with the Project and present/future development will likely include riparian and streambank degradation, erosion and sedimentation. Agriculture has had a significant impact on riparian areas in southern Saskatchewan (Huel 1998). Large scale cultivation of the prairies has led to increased erosion due to loss of riparian vegetation, which causes siltation of streambeds reducing the quality of spawning habitat. Loss of stream bank vegetation creates unshaded streams that result in warmer summer temperatures, higher likelihood of complete freeze over in winter, and low levels of oxygen (Huel 1998). Grazing along watercourses may cause shifts in the plant community structure and removal of plant growth or biomass, which will influence bank stability, sedimentation rates (leading to decrease in depths of pools and smothering eggs) and stream morphology (Knapp et al. 1998; Belsky et al. 1999). The primary oil and gas activities in the RSA that can potentially affect fish and fish habitat include exploration, construction of wells, pipelines, and associated infrastructure, and accidental releases of drilling fluids. These activities may influence loss of riparian habitat, alteration to fish habitat, reduction in water quality (i.e., sedimentation), and fish mortality. The Project is aligned adjacent to the Keystone XL Pipeline and the Foothills Pipeline for the northwest portion of the Project. Consequently, activities associated with these two projects that are located within and in the vicinity of watercourses, have the potential to act cumulatively on fish and fish habitat. Mitigative measures will influence the magnitude of potential adverse effects. With successful implementation of mitigation measures, reclamation plans, and monitoring programs, cumulative effects of oil and gas (excluding accidents) are expected to be isolated and short-term. Development activities such as access roads, electrical transmission lines, and cables have the potential to negatively impact fish and fish habitat. Maintenance and road widening activities in areas within the PSA will potentially affect fish and fish habitat. These impacts can be partially mitigated with careful planning, design, and construction of stream crossings.

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A monitoring program will be followed, and adaptive management follow-up will be implemented should any problems be identified concerning reclamation success. More on cumulative effects to fish and fish habitat as well as Project-specific mitigation measures are outlined in Section 12.3.7.

19.4.7 Vegetation Potential cumulative impacts from the Project and other activities include loss of native prairie and infestation of weeds via oil and gas pipeline installations, road allowance and valve site construction. Historical and current projects and activities that may act cumulatively with the Project in the alteration of native prairie include activities associated with transportation infrastructure, agriculture, and oil and gas activities in the RSA. The Project has been routed to be contiguous with existing linear disturbances for the majority of the route, minimizing disturbance to native vegetation. There is an estimated 319,382 ha of native prairie within the RSA. Due to the limited width of the Project ROW, this Project is expected to result in a relatively small decrease in native vegetation. General mitigation options recommended in Section 13.3.5 for vegetation are expected to protect the representative and significant features of the regional native prairie along the length of the pipeline route. Mitigation measures for rare plant species have also been developed to avoid placing rare plant populations at risk. Assuming that future developments will also be subject to regulatory measures ensuring the implementation of mitigation measures to protect populations of rare vascular plant species, the cumulative residual effects of the Project on rare vascular plants is considered to be reversible in the medium term, and of low to moderate magnitude. The introduction and/or spread of weed species is of concern during and post-construction. Weed species are known to become established in disturbed areas. Past disturbances, such as the development of transportation corridors, agricultural activities, and industrial development have resulted in the infestation of native prairie areas. The identification of these areas prior to the construction, the implementation of mitigation measures, and the execution of a post-construction monitoring program will likely reduce the magnitude of the cumulative residual effects. Additionally, it is expected that future developments in the area will likely implement similar mitigation measures in accordance with provincial weed control regulations to minimize this effect. The cumulative effects of Project and activities in the RSA are expected to be low in magnitude.

19.4.8 Wildlife and Wildlife Habitat Potential effects to wildlife and wildlife habitat may act cumulatively with past, present and future activities within the RSA, including agriculture, transportation/utilities and oil and gas activities. In general, potential cumulative effects to wildlife and wildlife habitat may include temporary habitat alteration (i.e., potential loss of site-specific habitats, fragmentation and weed spread), reduction in habitat connectivity, as well as an incremental increase in mortality and disturbance of wildlife during sensitive and non-critical periods. Oil and gas activities within the RSA have potential to act cumulatively with the Vantage Pipeline. The Project is aligned parallel with the existing Foothills Pipelines and the recently approved Keystone XL pipeline within the northwest portion of the Project. There is potential for Keystone XL and the Project to be constructed within a similar time (i.e., within one to two years). Consequently, activities associated with these projects have potential to act cumulatively on wildlife and wildlife habitat in terms of habitat alteration, weed spread, increased mortality, disturbance or displacement of wildlife. Such effects are expected to be reversible within the short to medium term and of low magnitude with appropriate construction and mitigation measures implemented by the Project and other companies. By routing the Project contiguous with linear disturbances for 90.5 % of the route as well as locating the pump stations and the majority of associated valve sites, on previously disturbed land, adjacent to roads, potential cumulative effects of the Project with other activities within the RSA will be further minimized. Past

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Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 19: Cumulative Effects Assessment experience has shown that Species of Management Concern will inhabit areas with oil and gas/pipeline development following construction and reclamation. Electrical power lines required for the Project’s pump stations and valve sites may act cumulatively in terms of habitat alteration, disturbance and mortality. The majority of disturbance due to power lines is in relation to bird strikes. Routing power lines to avoid sensitive habitat, marking of power lines (Brown and Drewien 1995), and installing perch discouragers have proven to be effective measures to prevent bird strikes and electrocution (Braun 1998, APLIC 2006). As power supply will be provided by third party providers, Vantage is encouraged to work with them to consider the best environmental options. Potential effects of roads and agriculture on wildlife and wildlife habitat include direct longer term wildlife habitat loss and fragmentation as well as disturbance and mortality of wildlife within the RSA. Effects of agriculture on wildlife and wildlife habitat can vary greatly with agricultural practices and land management. Mitigation measures (outlined in Section 14.3.5, 14.3.6, 14.5.4 and Appendix A) are expected to reduce potential cumulative effects of the Project on wildlife and wildlife habitat. The potential cumulative effects of project construction and operation on wildlife and wildlife habitat are expected to be localized, short to medium term, low in magnitude and reversible. There are no cases where a permanent or long- term effect of high magnitude is predicted. With mitigation measures, the potential environmental cumulative effects of wildlife habitat alteration, change in connectivity, wildlife disturbance and mortality are predicted to be non significant. Section 14.5 provides further discussion of cumulative effects on wildlife/wildlife habitat associated with the Project.

19.4.9 Socio-Economic Matters The majority of both positive and negative effects of the Project are expected to occur during the construction phase. As such, the potential cumulative impacts on socio-economic matters will occur if the construction of Projects, such as the Keystone XL Pipeline, occurs concurrently with the construction of the Project. If the timeline for the construction activities for these projects overlaps, competition for similar equipment, materials, and labour may occur. Increased highway traffic is also a concern, but these effects will be largely mitigated for with careful planning. Additionally, due to the dissimilar specifications of the Project and the Keystone XL Pipeline, competition for equipment and materials is likely to be minimal. The combined employment opportunities of the various projects in the conjunction with the Project are expected to provide positive effects to the local economy of the region.

19.4.10 Archaeology Provincial regulators (ACCS and TPCS) do not allow for residual or cumulative interactions with archaeological resources. Mitigation strategies must either fully protect the resource usually by avoidance, or collect all valuable scientific data before development can proceed. Once an archaeological resource has been excavated and all scientific data collected, it is considered fully mitigated and no further interactions are regulated.

19.4.11 Paleontology Provincial regulators (ACCS and TPCS) do not allow for residual or cumulative interactions with palaeontological resources. Mitigation strategies must either fully protect the resource, usually by avoidance, or collect all valuable scientific data before development can proceed. Once a palaeontological resource has been excavated, and all scientific data collected, it is considered fully mitigated and no further interactions are regulated.

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19.5 Conclusion The analysis of cumulative effects presented in this document follows the methodology presented in Section 5.4. Assessment of cumulative effects specific to each discipline is presented at the conclusion of each chapter. In summation, activities such as described in the Project present opportunities to address residual cumulative effects by way of efficient and effective monitoring and on-going reclamation programs, operating by way of adaptive management approaches. The nature of the Project also presents opportunities in that the relatively small diameter pipeline reduces the scope of impacts that will be realized, and overall reductions in crew sizes, machinery requirements, and ROW will help reduce the residual effects and consequently the cumulative effects that accrue. A summary of the findings of the cumulative effects assessment can be found in Table 19-2.

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Table 19-2

Vantage 2010 Cumulative Effects Summary Table PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Atmospheric Environment Reduction in air quality LSA Construction Keystone XL Pipeline construction Temporary, localized increased emissions Not significant Unlikely that construction for both projects will overlap in both time and space Reduction in air quality RSA Operations Adjacent oil and gas facilities Localized increased emissions Not significant No emissions during normal operations Reduction of air quality RSA Operations Hess, Plant at Tioga, , and the Increased emissions Not significant Emissions are expected to be within Nova Chemical Plant at Joffre, Alberta. permissible levels Reduction of air quality due to RSA Accidents, Adjacent pipelines or oil and gas facilities Increased emissions Not significant Accidents, malfunctions or unplanned accidents, malfunctions or Malfunctions, events in adjacent facilities are unlikely unplanned events an Unplanned to occur simultaneously Events Acoustic Environment Increased sound levels during RSA Construction Keystone XL Pipeline construction Temporary, localized increased sound levels Not significant Increased noise will be within construction activities permissible levels with standard mitigation Increased sound levels during RSA Operations Adjacent oil and gas facilities Localized increased sound levels Not significant Increased sound levels are expected to operational activities be within permissible levels Increased sound levels due to RSA Accidents, Adjacent pipeline pump stations and oil Increased sound levels will be localized and Not significant Accidents, malfunctions or unplanned accidents, malfunctions or Malfunctions, and gas facilities temporary events in adjacent facilities are unlikely unplanned events an Unplanned to occur simultaneously Events Soils Soil Loss PSA Construction  Historical, current, and future  Little to no cumulative effects predicted Not significant  Cumulative effects are not and Accidents, activities related to the oil and gas expected since historical, current Malfunctions, sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, and future projects are not likely to an Unplanned and Keystone XL Pipelines occur within the residual effects Events boundary (PSA) of the Project Change in Soil Quality PSA Construction  Little to no cumulative effects predicted Not significant  Refer to Section 8.4 for further and Accidents, information Malfunctions, an Unplanned Events

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PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Surface Water Quantity and Quality Localized alteration of natural LSA-RSA Construction  Historical, current, and future  Incremental change in localized natural Not significant  With successful implementation of flow patterns activities related to the oil and gas flow patterns due to: mitigation measures, reclamation sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, - Trenching streambanks causing plans and monitoring programs, and Keystone XL Pipeline erosion, sedimentation bank cumulative effects of oil and gas  Agricultural operations resulting in instability, stream widening; channel (excluding accidents) are expected land clearing and drainage, soil migration; and riparian degradation to be isolated and short-term. Reduction in surface water LSA-RSA Construction erosion, water withdrawals, livestock  Incremental change in surface water Not significant  The potential cumulative impacts quality concentration areas, land application quality due to: with respect to transportation and of manure and inorganic fertilizer and utilities infrastructure can be the use of pesticides - Erosion and sedimentation; and eliminated or reduced with careful Sediment contained in runoff planning, design, and construction  Transportation and utilities originating on cultivated land is a infrastructure (i.e., practical engineering, best major impact to surface water quality. management practices) of stream crossings  The Project will utilize existing road/utility corridors wherever possible  Refer to Section 9.4 for additional information Surface Water Quantity and Quality Change in surface water LSA-RSA Operations and  Historical, current, and future  The occurrence of accidents, Not significant  While unpredictable, the effects of quantity and quality due to a Maintenance activities related to the oil and gas malfunction and unplanned events these events are expected to be of pipeline break sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, could have adverse effects on soil low magnitude, with a low and Keystone XL Pipeline quantity and quality probability of occurrence Change in surface water LSA-RSA Construction to  Agricultural operations resulting in  Depending on the severity, extent, and Not significant  Contingency plans have been quantity and quality due to Operations and land clearing and drainage, soil location, and accidental spill of developed in the event of an hazardous spills during Maintenance erosion, water withdrawals, livestock hazardous materials could have adverse accident or malfunction. construction and operation concentration areas, land application cumulative effects on surface water (Appendix A: Section 4) Change in surface water LSA-RSA Construction of manure and inorganic fertilizer and Not significant  Refer to Section 9.4 for additional the use of pesticides  Depending on the severity, extent, and quantity and quality due to an location of the event, the accidental information inadvertent drilling mud release  Transportation and utilities release of drilling mud could have during construction infrastructure adverse cumulative effects on surface water

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PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Wetlands Alteration of surface water RSA Construction to  Historical, current, and future  Localized, incremental change to Not significant  Adherence to established and drainage patterns Operations and activities related to the oil and gas surface water drainage patterns successful mitigation practices, Maintenance sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, reclamation methods, and and Keystone XL Pipeline implementation of a proactive Loss or degradation of wetland RSA Construction to Not significant  Localized, incremental loss or post-construction monitoring habitat Operations and  Agricultural operations resulting in degradation of wetland habitat program, is believed to mitigate for Maintenance land clearing and drainage, soil erosion, water withdrawals, livestock long-term or permanent impacts to Alteration of hydrologic RSA Construction to Not significant concentration areas, land application  Localized, incremental change of local wetlands as a result of the functions Operations and of manure and inorganic fertilizer and hydrologic function Project Maintenance the use of pesticides  Any potential cumulative effects Reduction in surface water RSA Construction to Not significant  Transportation and utilities  Localized, incremental reduction in are expected to be equally quality Operations and infrastructure surface water quality localized, short-lived and Maintenance reversible  Potential future mineral extraction activities  Refer to Section 11.4 for additional information Fish and Fish Habitats Incremental change in fish LSA-RSA Construction  Historical, current, and future  Incremental change in fish habitat Not significant  Adherence to mitigation measures habitat activities related to the oil and gas will ensure that the cumulative Adverse effects due to alteration LSA-RSA Construction sector, such as the adjacent Foothills,  Incremental change in instream and Not significant residual effects of the project on of instream and terrestrial fish and Keystone XL Pipeline terrestrial fish habitat within zone of fish and fish habitat are reversible habitat within zone of influence  Agricultural operations resulting in influence during construction activities in the immediate to short-term and at trenched crossings and land clearing and drainage, soil of low magnitude. temporary vehicle crossings. erosion, water withdrawals, livestock  The residual effect of construction Adverse effects due to increase LSA-RSA Construction concentration areas, land application  Incremental increase in suspended solid Not significant on riparian habitat is reversible in in suspended solid concentration of manure and inorganic fertilizer and concentration the medium to long-term with a during instream construction at the use of pesticides low magnitude with mitigation and trenched crossing.  Transportation and utilities revegetation. Increased potential for fish LSA-RSA Construction infrastructure  Increase in the potential for fish Not significant  Refer to Section 12.4 for additional mortality or injury. mortality or injury information Adverse effects on fish and fish LSA-RSA Operations and  Historical, current, and future  The occurrence of accidents, Not significant  While unpredictable, the effects of habitats due to a pipeline break Maintenance activities related to the oil and gas malfunction and unplanned events these events are expected to be of sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, could have adverse effects fish and fish low magnitude, with a low and Keystone XL Pipeline habitat probability of occurrence Adverse effects on fish and fish LSA-RSA Construction to  Agricultural operations resulting in  Depending on the severity, extent, and Not significant  Contingency plans have been habitat due to hazardous spills Operations and land clearing and drainage, soil location, and accidental spill of developed in the event of an during construction and Maintenance erosion, water withdrawals, livestock hazardous materials could have adverse accident or malfunction. operation concentration areas, land application cumulative effects on fish and fish (Appendix A: Section 4) of manure and inorganic fertilizer and habitat

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PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Construction the use of pesticides Not significant  Refer to Section 12.4 for additional Adverse effects on fish and fish LSA-RSA  Depending on the severity, extent, and information habitat due to an inadvertent  Transportation and utilities location of the event, the accidental drilling mud release during infrastructure release of drilling mud could have construction. adverse cumulative effects on fish and fish habitat Vegetation Reduction in representative RSA Construction  Historical, current, and future  Incremental reduction in vegetation Not significant  Adherence to best management vegetation biodiversity activities related to the oil and gas biodiversity practices, the implementation of sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, mitigation measures, site Reduction in vegetation RSA Construction  Incremental reduction or alteration of Not significant and Keystone XL Pipeline reclamation and revegetation will communities of interest vegetation communities of interest Agricultural operations resulting in ensure that there will be no Reduction in vegetation/rare RSA Construction to  Not significant land clearing and drainage, soil  Potential for localized degradation of cumulative residual effects with plant site conditions Operation and vegetation/rare plant site conditions high magnitude and high Maintenance erosion, water withdrawals, livestock concentration areas, land application probability of occurrence Rare Plant loss in RSA RSA Construction of manure and inorganic fertilizer and  Incremental loss of rare plant species in Not significant  A post-construction monitoring the use of pesticides the region plan will take a proactive approach Introduction and spread of RSA Construction to  Transportation and utilities  Potential for the introduction and/or Not significant to reducing the impact of potential noxious and invasive non-native Operations and infrastructure spread of noxious and invasive non- cumulative residual effects species Maintenance native species  Refer to Section 13-4 for additional information

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PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Wildlife and Wildlife Habitat Wildlife habitat alteration RSA Construction to  Historical, current, and future  Potential for localized alteration of Not significant  Appropriate construction and Operations and activities related to the oil and gas wildlife habitat reclamation measures undertaken Maintenance sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, are expected to minimize Change in habitat connectivity RSA Construction and Keystone XL Pipeline  Incremental reduction to habitat Not significant disturbance of wildlife habitat by  Agricultural operations resulting in connectivity ensuring the re-establishment of nesting and cover habitat for birds, Change in wildlife disturbance RSA Construction to land clearing, fragmentation and Not significant  Potential for increased localized mammals, amphibians and reptiles Operations and drainage, soil erosion, water disturbance to wildlife within the medium term Maintenance withdrawals, livestock concentration areas, land application of manure and  Construction timing and setbacks Change in wildlife mortality RSA Construction to Not significant inorganic fertilizer and the use of  Potential for incremental increase in as well as the use of qualified Operations and pesticides wildlife mortality biologists to monitor during Maintenance  Transportation and utilities construction and other proven infrastructure methods will be utilized to reduce mortality, barriers and other disturbances to wildlife during construction and operations activities  An Access and Traffic Management Plan will reduce wildlife disturbance and mortality associated with construction and operations activities (Appendix A: Section 3.1)  Refer to Section 14.5 for additional information Socio-Economic Elements Need for equipment, materials RSA Pre-  Historical, current, and future  If the construction of the Keystone XL Not significant  The effects of equipment, and and labour construction to activities related to the oil and gas Pipeline occurs within the same material shortages will likely be Construction sector, such as the adjacent Foothills, timeframe as the construction of the mitigated due to the dissimilar and Keystone XL Pipeline. Only Project, there may be competition specifications of the Keystone XL activities occurring within the same associated with the acquisition of pipeline and the Vantage project timeframe as the Project will have similar equipment, materials, and  Proper planning is expected to cumulative effects (i.e., overlapping labour minimize labour and construction timing) Need for accommodation RSA Pre-  If the construction of the Keystone XL Not significant accommodation shortages are not construction to  Activities associated with current and Pipeline occurs within the same expected to have significant Construction future transportation and utilities timeframe as the construction of the cumulative effects infrastructure Project, there may be competition  A traffic management plan has associated with the acquisition of been developed to reduce impacts accommodation for work crews

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PROJECTS/ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIAL TO ACT POTENTIAL RESIDUAL SPATIAL TEMPORAL CUMULATIVELY WITH THE SIGNIFICANCE EFFECT CONTEXT BOUNDARY PROJECT PREDICTED CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF FINDINGS RATIONALE Increased highway traffic RSA Construction  The potential construction of the Not significant associated with construction traffic Keystone XL Pipeline within the same (Appendix A: Section 3.1) timeframe as the construction of the  Refer to Section 15.4 for additional Project may result in increased highway information traffic Archaeological Resources N/A PSA N/A N/A N/A N/A Provincial regulators (ACCS and TPCS) do not allow for residual or cumulative interactions with archaeological resources. Mitigation strategies must either fully protect the resource usually by avoidance, or collect all valuable scientific data before development can proceed. Once an archaeological resource has been excavated and all scientific data collected, it is considered fully mitigated and no further interactions are regulated Paleontological Resources N/A PSA N/A N/A N/A N/A Provincial regulators (ACCS and TPCS) do not allow for residual or cumulative interactions with palaeontological resources. Mitigation strategies must either fully protect the resource usually by avoidance, or collect all valuable scientific data before development can proceed. Once an archaeological resource has been excavated and all scientific data collected, it is considered fully mitigated and no further interactions are regulated

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19.6 References

19.6.1 Literature Cited Avian Powerline Interaction Committee APLIC. 2006. Suggested Practices for Avian Protection of Powerlines : The state of the Art in 2006. http://www.aplic.org/SuggestedPractices2006(LR- 2watermark).pdf. Belsky, A. J., A. Matzke, and S. Uselman. 1999. Survey of livestock influences on stream and riparian ecosystems in the western . Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 54(1): 419-431. Braun 1998. Sage grouse declines in western North America: What are the problems? Proceedings of Western Association of State and Fish Wildlife Agencies 78:139-156. Brown, W.M. and Drewien, R.C. 1995. Evaluation of two powerline markers to reduce crane and waterfowl collision mortality. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 23(2):217-227 Ducks Unlimited Canada. 2006. Spatial and Temporal Variation in Nesting Success of Prairie Ducks. 2006 Procedures Manual. Ducks Unlimited Canada, Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research. Stonewall, Manitoba. 5th edition (revised) March 2006. Environment Canada. 2009. Industry Activity Guidelines for Wildlife Species at Risk in the Prairie and Northern Region. Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Prairie and Northern Region. Edmonton, AB. Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office. 1994a. A Reference Guide for the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act: Addressing Cumulative Environmental Effects. Hull, QB. Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office. 1994b. A Reference Guide for the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act: Determining Whether a Project is Likely to Cause Significant Adverse Environmental Effects. Hull, QB. Hegmann, G., C. Cocklin, R. Creasey, S.Dupuis, A.Kennedy, L.Kingsley, W.Ross, H.Spaling and D.Stalker. 1999. Cumulative Effects Assessment Practioner’s Guide. Prepared by AXYS Environmental Consulting Ltd. and the CEA Working Group for the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency. Hull, QB. Huel, Denis. 1998. Streambank Stewardship: A Saskatchewan Riparian Project. Saskatchewan Wetland Conservation Corporation. Regina. SK. Knapp, R. A., V. T. Vredenburg, and K. R. Matthews. 1998. Effects of stream channel morphology on golden trout spawning habitat and recruitment. Ecol. Appl. 8:1104-1117. National Energy Board. 2009. Filing Manual. National Energy Board. , AB. Nickerson, N.H., R.A. Dobberteen, and N.M. Jarman. 1989. Effects of power line construction on wetland vegetation in Massachusetts, USA. Environmental Management 13(4): 477-483. Reeves, P.N. and P.D. Champion. 2004. Effects of Livestock Grazing on Wetlands: Literature Review. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. Hamilton, New Zealand. Thibodeau, F.R. and N.H. Nickerson. 1986. Impact of power utility rights-of-way on wooded wetland. Environmental Management 10(6): 809-814. University of Saskatchewan. 2000. Atlas of Saskatchewan: CD-ROM Version. University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK

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20 EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT

20.1 Introduction Pipeline construction and operation activities can affect the surrounding physical environment, but the reverse is also true. This section outlines specific environmental conditions that occur, or may occur, within the Vantage Pipeline Project (Project) area, discusses the possible impacts of those conditions on the pipeline itself or its related activities, outlines mitigative measures, and assesses the possible significance of these impacts. Existing information about the local physical environmental conditions (from a construction viewpoint) was used during the routing and engineering design phases to eliminate or reduce any potential risks from environmental effects. The information provided in this section is designed to meet the definition of “environmental effect” as defined under Section 2 (1) (c) of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (Government of Canada 1992), and the filing requirements listed in Table A-4 of the National Energy Board (NEB) Filing Manual: Guide A.2 (NEB 2009). Environmental factors that may potentially affect pipeline construction, reclamation, operation, and/or maintenance activities or associated physical structures (such as the pipeline or valve sites) include: terrain, water, adverse weather, and fire.

20.2 Terrain Terrain destabilization can occur as a result of gravity, seismic activity, or erosion, and may be compounded by ground saturation. Potential effects of terrain on the Project relate to ground and soil stability. Slumping, streambank undercutting (or bank scouring), landslides, and hold the potential for interaction with the pipeline. The Vantage Pipeline is not located within the permafrost region of Alberta or Saskatchewan. There are no mining activities within the Project area; acid-generating rock is not likely to be encountered.

20.2.1 Slumping/Soil Instability Regions where ground slumping or soil instability is possible are traversed by the proposed Project. These areas can pose a potential concern both during and following pipeline construction, and are discussed in greater depth in the Soils Section of the Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment (ESA) (Section 8), and identified on the Project Alignment Sheets (Appendix L). Potential effects of slope failure on the pipeline include exposure of the pipe, and damage or deformation of the pipe. Recommended construction practices for minimizing the risk of slumping or soil instability are contained in the Environmental Protection Plan (EPP) for this Project (Appendix A: Section 1.5, Section 1.6 and Section 4.5). With implementation of the recommended mitigation, it is believed that the potential impacts of slumping or soil instability will be low.

20.2.2 Streambank Undercutting, Bank Scouring Most of the drainages traversed by the Project appear to have stabilized streambanks. The exception to this is Notukeu Creek, where some bank instability was noted. In addition, existing disturbances were

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Vantage Pipeline Project Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Section 20: Effects of the Environment on the Project noted in the vicinity of the proposed pipeline crossing point on Bone Creek and Wood River, which may eventually lead to bank instability for the Project. Watercourse crossings are discussed in greater detail in Section 9 and Section 12 of the ESA. Potential effects of streambank undercutting or bank scouring on the Vantage Pipeline include exposure of the pipe, and physical damage to the pipe. Recommended construction practices for streambank crossings can be found in the EPP (Appendix A: Section 1.10, Section 1.11 and Section 4.8). Post-construction monitoring of streambanks is recommended for up to two years following construction.

20.2.3 Landslides and Avalanches Landslides in southern Saskatchewan are common due to poorly consolidated bedrock, such as the Cretaceous shales of the Bearpaw formation (Sauchyn 2006). River valley slopes throughout southern Saskatchewan are prone to landslides, particularly along the South Saskatchewan River (Turner et al. 2004). Steep slopes are traversed by the Vantage Pipeline; slopes are identified on the project Alignment Sheets (Appendix L). Avalanches are not likely to occur within the Project area. Potential effects of landslides on the proposed pipeline include exposure of pipe due to removal of cover, addition of extra cover material (rocks, soil, debris) onto the ROW, covering of surface structures such as valve sites, physical damage to the pipe or valve sites, and potential safety risk to Project personnel (during construction activities). Recommended mitigative practices for construction in areas of steep slopes are outlined in the EPP (Appendix A: Section 4.5, Table A-13). The risk of landslides is considered to be low within the Project area.

20.2.4 Earthquakes Saskatchewan and Manitoba are the least -prone areas in Canada, although earthquakes can and have happened here (Natural Resources Canada 2008).The largest recorded earthquake in Saskatchewan occurred on May 15, 1909; the epicenter was located near the junction of the borders between Saskatchewan, Montana and North Dakota (University of Saskatchewan 2000). Between 1968 and 1998 there were 14 recorded earthquakes in Saskatchewan, including several near the Villages of Val Marie, Radville and Bengough, all below 3.9 in magnitude (University of Saskatchewan 2000; Gendzwill 2006). While the overall risk of earthquakes is low, the Vantage Pipeline does extend through a portion of Saskatchewan with the highest risk potential; a 10% probability of seismic activity in 50 year period (University of Saskatchewan 2000). Earthquakes have occurred within the Project area. Potential effects of earthquakes to the Vantage Pipeline include exposure of the pipe, physical damage to the pipe or valve site, and safety risks to Project personnel during construction activities. There are no specific mitigative measures in place for the potential impacts of an earthquake, as the likelihood of a damage-causing earthquake occurring is extremely low.

20.3 Water Potential impacts to the Vantage Pipeline from water can occur from surface water flow (erosion) or from extreme events (flooding).

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20.3.1 Erosion Risk of water soil erosion is generally low for the Project area, except on steep slopes (10% to 15% or greater). Areas where high water erosion risk were identified during the 2010 soil survey are discussed in greater detail in the Soils Section of the ESA (Section 8), and are identified on the Project Alignment Sheets (Appendix L). Potential impacts from water erosion include exposure of the pipe, and reduction in reclamation success. Mitigative measures for reducing potential risk of water erosion are outlined in the EPP (Appendix A: Section 1.2, Section 2.2, Section 1.9, Section 1.11, Section 4.5 and Section 4.6).

20.3.2 Flooding Flooding is typically triggered by snowmelt (spring runoff), large storm events (“flash-floods”) or ice jams (Johnson 2006). In 2010, southwestern Saskatchewan experienced some of the worst flooding in the past two decades due to heavy early summer rains, causing widespread property damage and crop loss (CBC News 2010a). Flooding can lead to exposure of the pipe, buoyancy uplift of the pipe, or inundation of surface structures such as valve sites. Flash-flooding can cause soil and/or streambank instability. Extensive flooding can lead to long delays in construction or maintenance schedules, and render certain areas inaccessible. By scheduling construction or maintenance activities around the spring break-up period, and by ensuring that the pipeline is installed to the proper depth, much of the potential impact of flooding on the Project can be planned for. Once the flood waters have receded, general construction practices for wet ground conditions will be followed (Appendix A: Section 1.2 and Section 2.2). In areas where the ground has been made unstable by flooding, mitigative practices for slumping or soil instability will be followed (Appendix A: Section 1.5, Section 1.6 and Section 4.5). Flooding is not expected to be a significant adverse environmental effect for the Vantage Pipeline, once installed.

20.4 Adverse Weather Adverse weather conditions can endanger the lives and safety of Project personnel and lead to lengthy delays in construction or maintenance activities. Extreme weather events can also delay the response time of emergency services in the event of a spill, accident or malfunction.

20.4.1 Blizzards A blizzard is defined as a winter storm with winds greater than 40 km/hr, reducing visibility to less than 1 km, and lasting at least four hours in duration (Environment Canada 2010). One recorded blizzard in Saskatchewan lasted ten days, and buried a train in a snowdrift reaching 8 m in height (Clague and Bobrowsky 2010). The potential effects of blizzards on the Vantage Pipeline are largely limited to people rather than infrastructure. Construction delays and danger to lives and safety can result from the extreme temperatures and poor driving conditions. Construction is not currently planned for winter months. Should pipeline activities be necessary during this time, work/travel will be suspended during adverse weather conditions. Recommended soil handling methods for frozen soils is contained within the EPP (Appendix A: Section 4.9). There are no significant adverse environmental effects from blizzards anticipated for this Project.

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20.4.2 Drought Saskatchewan is subject to frequent droughts, typically most common during August or September (University of Saskatchewan 2000). Prolonged periods of drought can lead to significant economic, environmental and social pressures on local rural communities (Wittock et al. 2010). The drought of 2001-2002 led to a $3.6 billion loss in agricultural productivity, and an estimated $5.8 billion drop in Gross Domestic Product (Wittock et al. 2010). The potential effects of drought on the Vantage Pipeline Project include risks to human health (heat-related medical emergencies), increased risk of fire, and decreased reclamation success. Fire prevention methods outlined in the EPP (Appendix A) will be followed during all pipeline activities. If necessary, reclamation success along the pipeline will be monitored, and appropriate mitigation developed at that time. The potential impacts of drought on the Project are not expected to be significant.

20.4.3 Hailstorms Southern Saskatchewan experiences an average of two to three hailstorms per year (University of Saskatchewan 2000), although some studies put this figure closer to eight or nine (Paul 1980). May and June experience the highest number of hailstorms, but the most severe storms usually occur in July (Paul 1980). Although often short-lived, hailstorms can extend over a broad area. In one 9 year period, 76 different hail events extending over 150 km in length were recorded in Saskatchewan, each storm lasting at least three hours (Paul 1991). A severe hailstorm in 2006 lead to $100 million in crop insurance claims (Clague and Bobrowsky 2010). Risks of hailstorms to the Project include possible damage to pipe (if not yet installed) and valve sites. Reclamation success may also be negatively affected if hail damages growing vegetation. There is a slight potential for hailstorms to temporarily suspend or delay construction or maintenance work schedules. Valve structure design will take adverse weather conditions into account. Hailstorms are not expected to have significant impact on the Vantage Project.

20.4.4 High Winds and Tornadoes The highest recorded wind speeds in the Vantage Pipeline Project area range from 138 km to 158 km/hr (University of Saskatchewan 2000). Tornadoes are regular occurrence in Saskatchewan, averaging between 10 and 20 annually (Environment Canada 2007). Certain construction activities are particularly vulnerable to high winds, particularly welding and topsoil handling. High winds can lead to work stoppages, and in extreme cases, endanger the safety of Project personnel. Recommended soil handling methods for conditions of high winds can be found in the EPP (Appendix A: Section 3.5 and Section 3.6). Valve sites and the pipeline are unlikely to be affected by high winds, once installed. High winds are unlikely to have a significant affect on the proposed Project.

20.4.5 Thunderstorms and Lightning Southern Saskatchewan, on average, experiences 20 to 25 days of thunderstorms per year (University of Saskatchewan 2000). Lightning is an atmospheric discharge of electricity that occurs when the electrical charge in the atmosphere is sufficiently different from the ground charge to form a bolt, and can occur as either negatively charged (>95% of all lightning) or positively charged (National Weather Service 2010). Positive lightning is capable of traveling up to 16 km or more, allowing it to appear out of a clear blue sky (National Weather Service 2010).

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Lightning storms create work delays and endanger lives, as well as triggering wildfires and/or damaging equipment. Precipitation (in any amount) will create delays or modifications to construction or operation activities, while heavy precipitation during storm events can lead to flash-flooding. A lightning strike is believed to have been the cause of an oil depot fire in southern Saskatchewan (CBC Radio 2010b). General construction practices for wet ground conditions are outlined in the EPP (Appendix A: Section 1.2 and section 2.2). Construction or operations activities will be suspended during thunderstorms. Thunderstorms can be expected to cause some delays to construction or maintenance activities over the lifespan of the Project, although these effects are not expected to be significant or permanent.

20.5 Fire Fire is an integral part of the prairie ecosystem, with varied and complex interactions. Fire can affect a number of ecosystem parameters, including soil nutrients and mineral, vegetation community structure, and wildlife populations (Higgins et al. 1989). While both Alberta and Saskatchewan governments maintain detailed records on forest fires, much less information is available regarding size, number and severity of grass fires. A prairie fire can lead to the removal of the vegetation layer, which can increase the risk of wind or water soil erosion and decrease reclamation success. Fire can cause physical damage to above-ground structures such as valve sites. Fire can threaten the safety of construction personnel (and equipment), and lead to disruptions in work schedules due to area closures. The risk of a wildfire in the Project area is decreased somewhat by the number of cultivated fields and roads (potential fire breaks) present. The EPP (Appendix A: Section 1.2 and Section 2.2) outlines safety precautions to be followed to reduce the risk of starting a fire during construction activities. The Fire Contingency Plan (Appendix A: Section 4.4) contains emergency contact numbers and procedures to be followed in the event of a fire during any phase of the Project. Should a prairie fire occur along a portion of the pipeline during the operations phase, the area should be assessed after the fire, and if necessary, a reclamation and weed control plan developed.

20.6 Summary Vantage Pipeline Canada Inc. is committed to the long-term functionality and structural integrity of the buried and above-ground facilities related to this Project, and is aware of the potential effects of the environment on the Project. The pipeline infrastructure has been located to minimize the potential hazards posed by terrain destabilization or surface water activity. Environmental factors such as terrain, water, weather and fire are considered to have the potential to adversely affect the pipeline and associated structures (i.e., valve sites) during some or all phases of the Project. However, through routing options (such as avoidance of sensitive terrain), applicable management practices, construction standards, contingency plans and adaptive management, the potential impacts can be minimized. No significant adverse effects of the environment on the Vantage Pipeline are anticipated.

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20.7 References

20.7.1 Literature Cited CBC News. 2010a. Flood of 2010 will likely be costly. June 23, 2010 news broadcast. Available at http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2010/06/23/sk-flood-update-10623.html CBC Radio. 2010b. Lightning likely cause of oil depot fire: RCMP. July 5, 2010 news broadcast. Available at http://www.cbc.ca/canada/Saskatchewan/story/2010/07/05/sk-oil-fire-1007.html Clague, J.J. and P.T. Bobrowsky. 2010. Natural hazards in Canada. Geoscience Canada. Available at http://www.thefreelibrary.com/International+Year+of+Planet+Earth+8.+Natural+hazards+in+Cana da-a0228248720 Environment Canada. 2007. Canada’s Top Ten Weather Stories for 2006. Available at http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=E05286AA-1 Environment Canada. 2010. Winter Hazards. Website http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo- weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=46FBA88B-1#Blizzards Gendzwill, D. 2006. Earthquakes in Saskatchewan and Canada. University of Saskatchewan. Available at http://www.usask.ca/geology/labs/seismo/quakenat.html Government of Canada. 1992. Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. Department of Justice. Ottawa, ON. Current to October 2010. Higgins, K.F., A.D. Kruse, and J.L. Piehl. 1989. Effects of fire in the northern Great Plains. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Cooperative Extension Service. South Dakota State University. Brookings, SD. Available through the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Centre Online http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/habitat/fire/index.htm Johnson, D. 2006. Floods and Flood Control. The Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Available at http://esask.uregina.ca/entry/floods_and_flood_control.html National Energy Board. 2009. Filing Manual. National Energy Board. Calgary, AB. Natural Resources Canada. 2008. Seismic Zones in Western Canada. Website. http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/zones/westcan-eng.php National Weather Service. 2010. JetStream – Online School for Weather: The Positive and Negative Side of Lightning. Website. http://www.srh.noaa.gov.jetstream/lightning/positive.htm Paul, A.H. 1980. Hailstorms in southern Saskatchewan. Journal of Applied Meteorology 19:305-315. Paul, A. 1991. Studies of long-lived hailstorms in Saskatchewan, Canada from crop insurance data. Natural Hazards 4: 345-352. Sauchyn, D. 2006. Landslides. The Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. Available at http://esase.uregina.ca/entry/landslides.html Turner, R.J.W., R.G. Franklin, F.M. Haldi, G.F. Gilboy, and J.J. Clague. 2004. Geoscape Southern Saskatchwan. Geological Survey of Canada. Saskatchewan Miscallaneous Report 84. Available at: http://geoscape.nrcan.gc.ca/sask/landslides_e.php University of Saskatchewan. 2000. Atlas of Saskatchewan: CD-ROM Version. University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK. Wittock, V., E. Wheaton, and S. Kulshreshtha. 2010. Drought Impacts on Canadian Rural Communities: Monitoring and Assessment. Saskatchewan Research Council Publication 11899-?D10. Available at http://www.drinetwork.ca/GEO_DRI/presentations/wheaton.pdf

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