PolPicoy liPcyapPear per

January 2019 L C P C S E S L a e a l e m e S a n b i

c t A a d t s t n a i i ت , T f l o o d h l ا o r س a e C

n P

a h n ا L o ر o د e

l t a i ل b ’ c ل o a e n a

s y ي n d f l

S e ن

t ا s i P P

ن S u e ب t 2 ل a

d a ل r C i ا i m

e e 0 ز o r o n s ك i ر t l

م 1 fi e n Z i ل r ا o 8 a s l u e , m : g

h s a a e i n b n d t a r y Founded in 1989, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies is a -based independent, non-partisan think tank whose mission is to produce and advocate policies that improve good governance in fields such as oil and gas, economic development, public finance, and decentralization.

Copyright© 2019 The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies Designed by Polypod Executed by Dolly Harouny

Sadat Tower, Tenth Floor P.O.B 55-215, Leon Street, Ras Beirut,

T: + 961 1 79 93 01 F: + 961 1 79 93 02 [email protected] www.lcps-lebanon.org Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles

1 1 Sami Atallah and Sami Zoughaib The authors would like to thank Mohammed Diab, John McCabe, Ned Whalley, Josee Bilezikjian, and Ayman Tibi for their contribution to this paper. Sami Atallah Sami Atallah is the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). He is currently leading several policy studies on youth social identity and political engagement, electoral behavior, political and social sectarianism, and the role of in dealing with the refugee crisis. He is the co-editor of Democracy, Decentralization, and Service Delivery in the Arab World (with Mona Harb, Beirut, LCPS 2015), co-editor of The Future of Oil in Lebanon: Energy, Politics, and Economic Growth (with Bassam Fattouh, I.B. Tauris, 2018), and co-editor of The Lebanese Parliament 2009-2018: From Illegal Extensions to Vacuum (with Nayla Geagea, 2018).

Sami Zoughaib Sami Zoughaib is a public policy researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. He holds an M.A. in Public Policy from the University of Reading. His work at LCPS is mainly focused on Lebanese politics, specifically international donor conferences and the recent parliamentary elections. He previously worked on several research projects at the American University of Beirut, covering a range of issues including Palestinian refugees. 2 LCPS Policy Paper

List of voting and corresponding qadas

Beirut 1 Ashrafieh - Rmeil - Mdawwar - Saifi Beirut 2 Ras Beirut - Dar al-Mreiseh - Mina Al-Hosn - Zoukak Al-Balat - Mazraa - Moseitbeh - Marfa - Bashura Bekaa 1 Zahle Bekaa 2 West Bekaa - Rachaya Bekaa 3 - Mount Lebanon 1 Jbeil - Keserwan Mount Lebanon 2 Metn Mount Lebanon 3 Mount Lebanon 4 Aley - Chouf North 1 Akkar North 2 Tripoli - Minnieh-Dannieh North 3 Bcharre - - - Koura South 1 Saida - South 2 Zahrani - Sour South 3 Marjaayoun - - - Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 3

Introduction On 6 May 2018, Lebanese voters cast ballots for the first time in nine years to elect 128 members of parliament (MPs). Though its mandate ended in 2013, the parliament extended its term three times in contravention of the constitution—in 2013, 2014, and 2017—under the pretext of avoiding a political vacuum or deadlock and due to so-called ‘security concerns’. The election was governed by a new proportional representation law adopted in June 2017. The law divided Lebanon’s 26 qadas into 15 electoral districts and gave Lebanese expatriates the right to cast their ballots in their respective countries of residence. A key feature of the new law is that voters are required to vote for a list of candidates and cast a ‘preferential vote’ for one candidate from that list. This report aims to empirically assess the election’s fairness and competitiveness, as well as identify the characteristics of its coalitions. It also explores the participation of women candidates, whose overall numbers were higher than in past elections. We argue that the new electoral system does not offer an equitable distribution of seats on a geographical and confessional level, and that most political coalitions formed during the election were hybrid in nature, meaning parties which allied with one another in one may have faced off with one another in another district. Additionally, we demonstrate that women candidates were younger and more educated than their male counterparts. The report is divided into four primary sections. In the first, an overview of the electoral system under the new law is presented. The distribution of candidates over districts, confessions, and parties is reviewed in section two. Section three maps out coalitions and focuses on seven major political parties, in addition to describing how they fielded their candidates. The final section focuses on women’s participation; their representation at the confessional, partisan, and geographical level; and how women candidates compared in age and education to their male peers. 4 LCPS Policy Paper

I Electoral System: Unequitable Distribution The 2018 election was the first in Lebanon’s history to be held under a propor - 2 2 tional representation system. As was the case under the previous system, all Despite the proportional nature of the 128 seats were distributed on a geo-confessional basis detailed in tables 1 and law, Atallah and Helou argue that it retained majoritarian elements. 2. Mount Lebanon 4, which represents Aley and Chouf, has the highest number See Atallah, S., and Helou 2017. ‘’Our’ New Electoral Law: Proportional in of seats with thirteen, whereas Saida-Jezzine has the lowest with five. Form, Majoritarian at Heart.’ Lebanese The size of the Lebanese electorate increased by 13.34% from 2009 to 2018 Center for Policy Studies. Available at: https://www.lcps-lebanon.org/fea - and now totals 3,746,327 according to the voter rolls. South 3—comprising turedArticle.php?id=117 , Nabatiyeh, Hasbaya, and Bint Jbeil— has the largest voting population among the fifteen districts with 451,831 voters, while Beirut 1— encompassing the Beirut districts of Medawar, Rmeil, Ashrafieh, and Saifi— has the smallest, with 131,344. A key feature of any electoral law is equitable representation—meaning votes have an equal value. In Lebanon, there is a significant discrepancy in the distribution of seats among districts. While one seat in Beirut 1 is represen - tative of 16,418 voters, one seat in South 2—comprising Zahrani and Sour— is representative of more than double this number, with one MP for each 42,316 voters.

Table 1 Number of seats, voters, and voters by seat per district

Electoral Number Registered Voters/ District Qada(s) of Seats Voters Seats Mount Aley and Chouf 13 321,525 24,733 Lebanon 4 South 3 Marjayoun, Nabatiyeh, Hasbaya, Bint 11 451,831 41,076 Jbeil Beirut 2 Beirut 2 (Ras Beirut, Dar al-Mreiseh, 11 346,407 31,492 Mina Al-Hosn, Zoukak Al-Balat, Mazraa, Moseitbeh, Marfa, and Bashura) North 2 Tripoli and Minnieh - Dannieh 11 345,277 31,389 Bekaa 3 Baalbek and Hermel 10 312,770 31,277 North 3 Bcharre, Zgharta, Batroun, 10 237,083 23,708 and Koura Mount Metn 8 175,225 21,903 Lebanon 2 Mount Jbeil and Keserwan 8 172,596 21,575 Lebanon 1 Beirut 1 Beirut 1 (Ashrafieh, Rmeil, Mdawwar, 8 131,344 16,418 and Saifi) South 2 Zahrani and Sour 7 296,211 42,316 North 1 Akkar 7 280,096 40,014 Bekaa 1 Zahle 7 171,689 24,527 Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 5

Electoral Number Registered Voters/ District Qada(s) of Seats Voters Seats Mount Baabda 6 161,790 26,965 Lebanon 3 Bekaa 2 West Bekaa and Rachaya 6 139,465 23,244 South 1 Saida and Jezzine 5 120,052 24,010 Expats From all 15 districts 82,966 128 3,746,327 29,268

According to the 1989 Taef Agreement, the parliament is divided evenly be tween Muslim and Christian MPs, and subdivided further based on confession . One Muslim seat currently represents almost twice the number of votes as a Christian seat. While seats representing the two major Muslim confessions (Sunni and Shia) are representative of about 40,000 voters each on average; Maronite and Orthodox seats are representative of half that number.

Table 2 Number of voters per seats by confession

Confession Seats Registered Voters Voters/Seat Sunni 27 1,081,411 40,052 Shia 27 1,073,504 39,759 8 210,607 26,326 Alawite 2 35,696 17,848 Muslim 64 2,401,218 37,519 Maronite 34 746,525 21,957 Greek Orthodox 14 257,788 18,413 Catholic 8 167,226 20,903 Armenian Orthodox 5 86,138 17,228 Armenian Catholic 1 20,313 20,313 Minorities 1 49,428 49,428 Evangelical 1 17,691 17,691 Christian 64 1,345,109 21,017 128 3,746,327 29,268

II Distribution of candidates a Seemingly Competitive Lists Although 976 candidates initially registered to run for parliament, only 597 candidates managed to form or join lists, as required by law. The 597 candidates were grouped into 77 lists in 15 electoral districts. Beirut 2—comprising Dar al-Mreiseh, Mina Al-Hosn, Zoukak Al-Balat, Mazraa, Moseitbeh, Marfa, and Bashura—had nine lists, making it the most competitive district in the country, while South 2, with only two lists competing, was the least com petitive 6 LCPS Policy Paper

(figure 1). On average, each district had five lists—comprising 40 candidates— competing for nine seats.

Figure 1 Number of complete and incomplete lists by districts 10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0 Beirut 2 North 2 Mount North 1 South 3 Beirut 1 Bekaa 1 Bekaa 3 Mount Mount Mount South 1 Bekaa 2 North 3 South 2 Lebanon 4 Lebanon 1 Lebanon 2 Lebanon 3 Number of Complete Lists Number of Incomplete Lists

In none of the districts were all lists complete—meaning that not all lists put forward a candidate for each of the district’s seats. None of the six competin g lists inMount Lebanon 4—encompassing Aley and Chouf—were complete, and Beirut 2, North 2 (Tripoli and Minnieh-Dannieh), South 3, Bekaa 2 (West Bekaa and Rachaya), and North 3 (Bcharre, Zgharta, Batoun, and Koura) had more incomplete lists than complete ones (figure 1).

b Most Parties Ran Candidates in Districts Across Lebanon Of the seven largest political parties, the , leading the Strong Lebanon Bloc, fielded the highest number of candidates (63), followed by the with 35, and with 25. However, it should be taken into account that many political parties formed lists with non-party candidates. Most parties attempted to compete nationally by fielding candidates in multiple districts, with each party running an average of nine candidates across nine districts. The Strong Lebanon bloc fielded candidates in all 15 dis tricts, while the Progressive Socialist Party only chose to run in four. For their part, the civil society coalition, Koullouna Watani, managed to field 66 candidates on nine different lists. Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 7

Table 3 Number of candidates and lists by bloc

Party Number of Candidates Number of Lists Strong Lebanon Bloc 63 15 Future Movement 35 9 Lebanese Forces 26 11 18 7 Kataeb 15 9 14 7 Progressive Socialist Party 7 4 Other Parties 72 29 Nonpartisan 281 Koullouna Watani 66 9

An examination of the confessional distribution of candidates shows that 160 were Sunni, 152 Maronite, and 103 Shia. Of the four confessions with 10 or more seats, Shia seats are the least competitive with 103 candidates competing for 27 seats, while Sunni seats are the most competitive with 160 candidates competing for the same number of seats. Maronite and Greek Orthodox seats fall in between (table 4).

Table 4 Number of candidates and seats by confession and competitiveness ratio

Confession Number of Candidates Number of Lists Ratio Sunni 160 27 0.17 Maronite 152 34 0.22 Shia 103 27 0.26 Greek Orthodox 67 14 0.21 Druze 36 8 0.22 Catholic 33 8 0.24 Armenian Orthodox 22 5 0.23 Alawite 12 2 0.17 Evangelical 7 1 0.14 Minorities 5 1 0.20 Armenian Catholic 5 1 0.20

A closer examination of the competitiveness of individual seats shows that the Greek Orthodox and Sunni seats in Beirut 2 and the Greek Orthodox and Alawite seats in North 2, are the most competitive (table 5). In fact, the eight most competitive seats are either in Beirut 2 or North 2. Five out of ten of the least competitive seats are in Bekaa 2, two in South 2, and three each in South 1 (Saida-Jezzine), Beirut 1, and Mount Lebanon 2 (Metn). Annex 1 provides a detailed list of the competitiveness of the seats. 8 LCPS Policy Paper

Table 5 Least and most competitive seats by confession and district

Confession District Number of Candidates Number of Seats Ratio Greek Orthodox Beirut 2 8 1 0.13 Alawite North 2 8 1 0.13 Greek Orthodox North 2 8 1 0.13 Sunni Beirut 2 47 6 0.13 Druze Beirut 2 7 1 0.14 Evangelical Beirut 2 7 1 0.14 Shia Beirut 2 14 2 0.14 Sunni North 2 53 8 0.15 Armenian Beirut 1 10 3 0.30 Orthodox Catholic Beirut 1 3 1 0.33 Maronite Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Greek Orthodox Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Shia Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Armenian Mount 3 1 0.33 Orthodox Lebanon 2 Maronite South 1 6 2 0.33 Sunni Bekaa 2 5 2 0.40 Druze Bekaa 2 2 1 0.50 Catholic South 2 2 1 0.50 Shia South 2 11 6 0.55

II March 8 vs March 14 vs CSO Coalitions Plotting political party coalitions graphically reveals their hybrid nature. Most political parties that ran with another particular party in one district also ran against that same party in another district. An examination of the affiliations of the 77 running lists reveals there are five main list-types: 1 One-party lists: Only one party is represented 2 Multi-party lists: An alliance between two or more parties 3 Party and non-party member lists: Includes both party and non-party member candidates 4 Independent lists: Only includes candidates with no partisan affiliation 5 National Coalition lists: Representatives of civil society groups

Figure 2 displays the connection between each Lebanese party and its par tisan and nonpartisan partners, and identifies independent lists and civil society groups. Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 9

At first glance, four clusters can be identified: Two represent pro-March 8 and pro-March 14 groups, with only a single strand of connection between the Free Patriotic Movement and Future Movement. Additionally, there is a cluster for independent lists and one for the national coalition of civil society groups. The large number of nonpartisan candidates and their distribution among parties are also emphasized in the diagram, suggesting that parties heavily relied on these actors in their campaigns.

Figure 2 Electoral Coalitions

This network diagram shows the connection between each pair of Lebanese parties taking part in the national Marada National elections. These connections Popular Nasserite Liberal Party are shown in terms of number Organization Syrian Social Nationalist Party of coalitions and each party’s weight in these coalitions.

Tashnag Lebanese Ramgavar Legend Democratic Party Kataeb Lebanese Nonpartisan Arab Struggle Amal Movement Islamic Charity Projects Ass’n Independent List

Hezbo- Henchag llah Lebanese Number of Candidates Free Forces 50 Patriotic Movement Future Islamic 10 Group 1 Worker’s League Arab Independence Progressive Number of Coalitions Movement Socialist Popular Bloc Party Civil Party Azm 1 People’s Movement Moderation l Co tiona aliti 2 N a on 3 Karami Others Lebanese Youth Lihaqqi 4 Movement Massirat Watan Independent National 5 Civil Society Akkar’s Dialogue We Want Beirut Al- Li Baladi Watan Decision Party Sabaa Accountability Lebanon Is Relative Weight in Coalitions We Can Worth It We Are United You Stink Change Beirut Identity & 12 One Vote for Akkar’s Sah Sovereignty Change Women Metn’s Loyalty Cenacle Civic Beiruti Development Citizens in a Party 1’s number of Indepdendent Opposition & Change State candidates relative to party Beirutis 2’s in all coalitions involving Civil Society We Are All Beirut the two parties 10 LCPS Policy Paper

By examining which coalitions were formed by major parties, it is determined that the Free Patriotic Movement ran with 12 different groups across 15 districts , while the Progressive Socialist Party ran with just three (table 6). Examining the affiliation of lists in each district reveals that the Future Movement ran against 24 different groups while Hezbollah and the Amal Movement ran against 11. All parties ran with and against at least one party or group, indicating a high number of hybrid alliances—the FPM is notable in that it ran candidates against five groups that it had struck alliances with in other districts.

Table 6 Number of candidates and seats by confession and competitiveness ratio

Party Ran With Ran Against Ran With/Against Amal Movement 8 11 2 Free Patriotic Movement 12 23 5 Future Movement 5 24 4 Hezbollah 6 11 2 Kataeb 5 20 2 Lebanese Forces 5 21 2 Progressive Socialist Party 3 16 1

The next section provides a detailed analysis of the activities of the seven major parties during the elections. Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 11

a Amal Movement

n The Amal Movement fielded 18 candidates across Beirut 2, Baabda, West Bekaa-Rachaya, Baalbek- Hermel, and all three districts in the South

n The Amal Movement struck alliances with the following six parties and groups: Hezbollah (five), non-party members (three), Popular Nasserist Organization (one), Syrian Social Nationalist Party (one), Al Mashari’ (one), and the Arab Lebanese Struggle Movement (one)

n The movement ran against nine groups across seven districts, most often against the Future movement (five districts)

n The Amal Movement ran with and against two groups: The Lebanese Democratic Party (one with; one against) and Free Patriotic Movement (three with; four against)

Alliances and confrontations of Amal Movement in the 2018 national Lebanese elections Amal Movement

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Hezbollah Non-party Member Allies Popular Nasserite Organization Syrian Social Nationalist Party Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Lebanese Democratic Party Tashnag Popular Bloc Marada Arab Unification Party Azm Independence Movement National Liberal Party Workers League Ramgavar Rifi Civil Moderation Henchag Free Patriotic Movement People’s Movement Lebanese Youth Movement National Coalition Progressive Socialist Party Kataeb Lebanese Forces Other Independent Lists Future Movement

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n h l a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i r m n

y M t n z h K e , a t , t Z i Relation at the district level: Number of districts: A B e W

h a R n e a r f n

, a a j s

a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i

1 a

d l fi C r

d

l Party Alliance , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a 4 J b r c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i 8 n a i B R A 12 LCPS Policy Paper

b Free Patriotic Movement

n The Free Patriotic Movement fielded 63 candidates across all 15 districts

n The Free Patriotic Movement struck alliances with the following seven parties: Non-party members (11), the Lebanese Democratic Party (three), Tashnag (two) , the Independence Movement (one), the Arab Lebanese Struggle Movement (one), Hinshak (one), and Al Mashari’ (one)

n The party ran against 21 groups across 15 districts, most often against the Lebanese Forces (11 districts)

n The Free Patriotic Movement ran with and against five groups: Jama’a Is - lamiya (one with; one against), Amal (three with; four against), Hezbollah (two with; five against), Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (two with; two against), and Future Movement (one with; eight against)

Alliances and confrontations of the Free Patriotic Movement in the 2018 national Lebanese elections FPM

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Non-party Member Allies Lebanese Democratic Party Tashnag Independence Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Henchag Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Islamic Group Syrian Social Nationalist Party Amal Movement Popular Nasserite Organization Popular Bloc Arab Unification Party Azm People’s Movement Lebanese Youth Movement National Dialogue Party National Liberal Party Workers League Ramgavar Civil Moderation Marada Rifi Hezbollah Progressive Socialist Party Future Movement Kataeb National Coalition Other Independent Lists Lebanese Forces

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n h l a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i r m n

y M t n z h K e , a t , t

Z Relation at the district level: Number of districts: i A B e W

h a R n e a r f n

, a a j s

a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u

i 1

Party Alliance a

d l fi C r

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a 4 J b r c c i a B b J T R r e B A Party Confrontation s t B a M

n s H i 8 n a i B R A Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 13

c Hezbollah

n Hezbollah fielded 14 candidates across seven districts

n Hezbollah struck alliances with the following three parties and groups: Amal (seven), Non-party members (four), Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (two), and Al Mashari’ (one)

n The party ran against nine groups across seven districts, most often against the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces (five districts each)

n Hezbollah ran with and against two groups: The Lebanese Democratic Party (one with; one against) and the Free Patriotic Movement (two with; five against)

Alliances and confrontations of Hezbollah in the 2018 national Lebanese elections Hezbollah

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Amal Movement Non-party Member Allies Syrian Social Nationalist Party Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Lebanese Democratic Party Popular Nasserite Organization Islamic Group Tashnag Marada Arab Unification Party Azm Independence Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt National Dialogue Party National Liberal Party Workers League Ramgavar Rifi Civil Moderation Henchag Popular Bloc People’s Movement Lebanese Youth Movement Progressive Socialist Party Free Patriotic Movement Other Independent Lists National Coalition Future Movement Kataeb Lebanese Forces

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n h l a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i r m n

y M t n z h K e , a t , t Z

i Relation at the district level: Number of districts: A B e W

h a R n e a r f n

, a a j s

a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i 1

a Party Alliance d l fi C r

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a 4 J b r c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i 8 n a i B R A 14 LCPS Policy Paper

d Lebanese Forces

n The Lebanese Forces fielded 26 candidates across 11 districts

n The Lebanese Forcesstruck alliances with the following four parties and groups: Non-party members (11), Future Movement (three), Progressive Socialist Party (two), and Ramgavar (one)

n The party ran against 20 groups across 11 districts, most often against the Free Patriotic Movement (11 districts)

n The Lebanese Forces ran with and against one group: Kataeb (five with; four against)

Alliances and confrontations of the Lebanese Forces in the 2018 national Lebanese elections Lebanese Forces

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Non-party Member Allies Progressive Socialist Party Ramgavar Kataeb Future Movement Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Azm People’s Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Lebanese Youth Movement Civil Moderation Popular Nasserite Organization Islamic Group Popular Bloc Arab Unification Party Independence Movement National Dialogue Party National Liberal Party Workers League Rifi Henchag Tashnag Marada Lebanese Democratic Party Amal Movement Hezbollah Syrian Social Nationalist Party Other Independent Lists National Coalition Free Patriotic Movement

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n l h a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i m r n

y M t n z h K e , a t t , Z i A B e W Relation at the district level: Number of districts: h a R n e a r f n

, a a j

s a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i

a

d Party Alliance 1 l fi C r

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a J

b 4 r c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i

n 8 a i B R A Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 15

e Future Movement

n The Future Movement fielded 35 candidates across nine districts

n The Future Movement exclusively struck alliances with Non-party members (nine)

n The movement ran against 20 groups across nine districts, most often against the Free Patriotic Movement (eight districts)

n The Future Movement ran with and against three groups: The Progressive Socialist Party (three with, one against), Lebanese Forces (three with, three against), Kataeb (one with, four against), and Free Patriotic Movement (one with, eight against)

Alliances and confrontations of Future Movement in the 2018 national Lebanese elections Future Movement

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Non-party Member Allies Progressive Socialist Party Lebanese Forces Tashnag Independence Movement National Dialogue Party Ramgavar Henchag Popular Nasserite Organization Popular Bloc Marada Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Arab Unification Party Azm People’s Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Lebanese Youth Movement National Liberal Party Workers League Civil Moderation Islamic Group Lebanese Democratic Party Syrian Social Nationalist Party Rifi Kataeb National Coalition Hezbollah Amal Movement Other Independent Lists Free Patriotic Movement

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n h l a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i r m n

y M t n z h K e , a t , t Z i A B e W

h Relation at the district level: Number of districts: a R n e a r f n

, a a j s

a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i

a

d 1 l fi C Party Alliance r

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a J b

r 4 c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i

n 8 a i B R A 16 LCPS Policy Paper

f Progressive Socialist Party

n The Progressive Socialist Party fielded seven candidates across four districts

n The Progressive Socialist Party struck alliances with the following two parties and groups: Non-party members (four), and the Lebanese Forces (two)

n The party ran against 16 groups across four districts, and were pitted against the Free Patriotic Movement in all of them

n The Progressive Socialist Party ran with and against one party—the Future Movement(three with, one against)

Alliances and confrontations of the Progressive Socialist Party in the 2018 national Lebanese elections PSP

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Non-party Member Allies Future Movement Lebanese Forces Popular Nasserite Organization Islamic Group Tashnag Popular Bloc Marada Azm Independence Movement National Dialogue Party Ramgavar Rifi Civil Moderation Henchag Syrian Social Nationalist Party Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Arab Unification Party People’s Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Lebanese Youth Movement National Liberal Party Workers League Lebanese Democratic Party Kataeb Hezbollah National Coalition Amal Movement Other Independent Lists Free Patriotic Movement

, ,

, i , l - r a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n h l a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i r m n

y M t n z h K e , a t , t Z i A B e W Relation at the district level: Number of districts: h a R n e a r f n

, a a j s

a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i

a

d 1 l

fi Party Alliance C r

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a J b 4 r c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i

n 8 a i B R A Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 17

g Kataeb

n Kataeb fielded 15 candidates across nine districts

n Kataeb struck alliances with the following three parties and groups: Non-party members (eight), Ramgavar (one), and the National Liberal Party (one)

n The party ran against 18 groups, most often against the Free Patriotic Movement (nine districts)

n Kataeb ran with and against two groups: The Lebanese Forces (five with, four against) and the Future Movement (one with, four against)

Alliances and confrontations of Kataeb in the 2018 national Lebanese elections Kataeb

South Bekaa North Mount Lebanon Beirut Alliances with and confrontations against other parties

3423123 2 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 Party Alliances Confrontations

Non-party Member Allies National Liberal Party Ramgavar Lebanese Forces Islamic Charity Projects Assoc. Azm People’s Movement Lebanese Arab Struggle Mvmt Lebanese Youth Movement Rifi Civil Moderation Popular Nasserite Organization Islamic Group Popular Bloc Marada Arab Unification Party Independence Movement National Dialogue Party Workers League Henchag Progressive Socialist Party Lebanese Democratic Party Tashnag Future Movement Syrian Social Nationalist Party Amal Movement Hezbollah Other Independent Lists National Coalition Free Patriotic Movement

, ,

, i , l r - a a e y l t n fi n n a n e h a h e i a h i n l h a r d e t a s n r u u e l e e e a a i k e e b k h i u m e o u i r o w y z S b A k r a e a o r i m r n

y M t n z h K e , a t t , Z i A B e W

h Relation at the district level: Number of districts: a R n e a r f n

, a a j

s a B c H i a , J Z e , r u a s

e b B

a

, a D t a

, h M , o a u w K B , r

r k y a e

a h , M N e a , M , e u i

a

d 1 l fi C

r Party Alliance

d l , i , h i b o , h r h a l e l o a a t g e i S e r a c a p S y s M Z e u b h h i i a a r a J b

r 4 c c i a B b J T R r e B A

s Party Confrontation t B a M

n s H i

n 8 a i B R A 18 LCPS Policy Paper

III Women Candidates: Younger and More Educated The election saw a record number of female candidates register—86 in total—a significant increase from the last election, which saw only 12 women run. Beirut 2 saw the highest level of female candidacy while West Bekaa-Rachaya had only a singl e woman on the ballot.

Figure 3 Number of female candidates by district

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 Beirut 2 Metn Tripoli Beirut 1 Aley Jbeil Baabda Akkar Bcharre Baalbeck Zahle Marjaayoun Saida Zahrani West Minieh Chouf Keserwan Zgharta Hermel Nabatieh Jezzine Sour Bekaa Dinnieh Batroun Hasbaya Rachaya Koura

Number of female candidates Number of seats

Most women candidates were Maronite (26), while Shia women wer e least represented among the four major confessions (nine) (figure 4). Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 19

Figure 4 Number of female candidates by confession

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 Maronite Sunni Greek Shia Druze Armenian Minorities Evangilical Catholic Alawite Armenian Orthodox Orthodox Catholic

Number of Candidates Number of Seats

Most women candidates were non-party members or part of the civil society coalition Koullouna Watani (figure 5). The Future Movement, with four candidates, had the highest level of female representation among traditional parties.

Figure 5 Number of female candidates by bloc

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 Non-Party Koullouna Future Kataeb Free Patriotic Lebanese Ramgavar Amal Populist Lika’ Marada Members Watani Movement Movement Forces Movement Bloc Al-Itidal

Women candidates tended to be younger and more educated than their 3 male peers. The average age for male candidates was 57, while for female Based on the profiles of 80 female candidates and 261 male candidates. candidates it was 49.3 Moreover, as figure 6 shows, the share of female 4 candidates who at the time held postgraduate degrees (master’s degree and PhD) Based on the profiles of 82 female was larger than that of their male counterparts by a considerable margin. 4 candidates and 231 male candidates. 20 LCPS Policy Paper

Figure 6 Share of female candidates’ post graduate degrees

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% Undergraduate Master’s PhD Other

Female Male Lebanon’s Parliamentary Election of 2018: Seats, Coalitions, and Candidate Profiles 21

Annex 1: Competitiveness of seats by confession and district Number of Confession District Candidates Number of Seats Ratio Greek Orthodox Beirut2 8 1 0.13 Sunni Beirut2 47 6 0.13 Alawite North 2 8 1 0.13 Greek Orthodox North 2 8 1 0.13 Druze Beirut2 7 1 0.14 Evangelical Beirut2 7 1 0.14 Shia Beirut2 14 2 0.14 Sunni North 2 53 8 0.15 Catholic Mount Lebanon 4 6 1 0.17 Maronite North 1 6 1 0.17 Sunni North 1 18 3 0.17 Maronite North 2 6 1 0.17 Greek Orthodox South 3 6 1 0.17 Sunni Mount Lebanon 4 11 2 0.18 Armenian Catholic Beirut 1 5 1 0.20 Maronite Beirut 1 5 1 0.20 Minorities Beirut 1 5 1 0.20 Greek Orthodox Beirut 1 5 1 0.20 Maronite Bekaa 1 5 1 0.20 Greek Orthodox Bekaa 1 5 1 0.20 Shia Bekaa 1 5 1 0.20 Sunni Bekaa 1 5 1 0.20 Catholic Bekaa 3 5 1 0.20 Maronite Bekaa 3 5 1 0.20 Sunni Bekaa 3 10 2 0.20 Shia Mount Lebanon 1 5 1 0.20 Catholic Mount Lebanon 2 5 1 0.20 Maronite Mount Lebanon 4 25 5 0.20 Druze South 3 5 1 0.20 Maronite Mount Lebanon 1 33 7 0.21 Maronite Mount Lebanon 2 19 4 0.21 Shia Bekaa 3 27 6 0.22 Druze Mount Lebanon 4 18 4 0.22 Greek Orthodox North 1 9 2 0.22 Armenian Orthodox Bekaa 1 4 1 0.25 Catholic Bekaa 1 8 2 0.25 Greek Orthodox Mount Lebanon 2 8 2 0.25 Druze Mount Lebanon 3 4 1 0.25 Maronite Mount Lebanon 3 12 3 0.25 Greek Orthodox Mount Lebanon 4 4 1 0.25 22 LCPS Policy Paper

Number of Confession District Candidates Number of Seats Ratio Alawite North 1 4 1 0.25 Catholic South 1 4 1 0.25 Sunni South 3 4 1 0.25 Maronite North 3 27 7 0.26 Shia South 3 31 8 0.26 Greek Orthodox North 3 11 3 0.27 Shia Mount Lebanon 3 7 2 0.29 Sunni South 1 7 2 0.29 Armenian Orthodox Beirut 1 10 3 0.30 Catholic Beirut 1 3 1 0.33 Maronite Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Greek Orthodox Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Shia Bekaa 2 3 1 0.33 Armenian Orthodox Mount Lebanon 2 3 1 0.33 Maronite South 1 6 2 0.33 Sunni Bekaa 2 5 2 0.40 Druze Bekaa 2 2 1 0.50 Catholic South 2 2 1 0.50 Shia South 2 11 6 0.55 LCPS policy papers are in-depth research papers that address relevant policy questions and shed fresh light on topics related to governance and development.