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Investing in Bulgarian Tourism Teaser Paper Milko Teofilov Sofia, November 2017 Executive Summary Investing in Bulgarian Tourism

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Investing in Bulgarian Tourism Teaser Paper Milko Teofilov Sofia, November 2017 Executive Summary Investing in Bulgarian Tourism Investing in Bulgarian Tourism Teaser Paper Milko Teofilov Sofia, November 2017 Executive Summary Investing in Bulgarian Tourism Key Insights . Lowest cost of doing business in EU for both variable and fix costs (cost advantage for labor cost >80%, utilities ~30%, industrial and office rents between 68% and 82% compared to EU average) . Lowest corporate tax rate of 10% flat in EU (compared to 15% in SRB, 16% in RO and 19% in PL and CZ) WHY th nd BULGARIA . Political and business stability (3,4% GDP growth for 2016, 5 place in EU and 2 lowest gov. debt to GDP) . Balanced GDP composition with above average industry and tourism sector contribution, Germany is major trade partner . Access to key markets in European Union, Russia, Turkey and Middle East . 6% annualized growth of tourist arrivals for the last 5 years outperforming the EU and world average (4,6% and 4,3%) as well as competitors like Turkey, Italy and France. At the same time, available bed-places have increased by only ~2% p.a. Projected growth of business and foreign visitor spending of 84% and 75% respectively by 2027 clearly surpassing WHY the EU (27% and 48%) and world average (49% and 58%) TOURISM . Proximity to key generating markets as its neighbor countries, together with Germany, Poland and UK making-up the top 10 arrival countries . High governmental priority on positioning as high-end, year-round destination (via business, wellness, cultural tourism etc.) . Tourism investment map created together with the regional municipalities containing >30 projects (e.g. expo-centers, INVESMENT sport centers, golf and wellness resorts etc.) with investment volume ranging from 0.5 to >100 mEUR OPPORTUNITIES . Further possibly to bridge to private investment projects via the officially partnered tourism sector organizations | 2 Content Why invest in Bulgaria What is Bulgaria’s proposition as an investment destination? Why invest in Tourism What are Bulgaria’s competitive advantages as an investment destination in tourism? Investment projects Overview of different investment opportunities in the Bulgarian tourism sector | 3 Bulgaria is located in South-Eastern Europe and has been awarded by major institutions as a promising economy to do business with Key facts about Bulgaria Location 7 101 859 Population Outsourcing destination in Europe 1st Hungary for 2015 , according to Cushman & Wakefield Croatia Romania Serbia 5th GDP growth rate in the BULGARIA EU for 2016 Fastest internet speed Greece in the world Top 10 Place in the Global Service 2nd Location Index for 2016, according to AT Kearney Easiest economy to do rd business in East Europe 3 for 2014, according to the World Bank | 4 Bulgaria offers highly favorable investment conditions: competitive cost structure, access to markets and political stability Overview investment conditions . EU, NATO and WTO member . Lowest labor cost in the EU . Currency board 1 EUR = 1,9558 lev . GDP per capita (PPP) (no currency risks) ~20.300 USD (64th world) . Low government debt to . Lowest tax rate in the EU GDP ratio (<30%, 2nd lowest in EU) . Low utility costs . 10% corporate tax (lowest in EU) . 98% of the high school students learn a foreign . 230€ minimum, Why language 503€ average wage Bulgaria . 25% of population holds . 0,1% inflation rate (2016 university degree to 2015) . 6,4% unemployment (as . Investor classification of April 2017) and incentivation (e.g. speed-up for approval . 62,2% of population is in procedures) working age . High priority on . 80 000 students abroad implementing a dual- . European Union/EFTA education system . Russia, Turkey, Middle East | 5 Except for 2014, Bulgaria’s GDP growth rate outperforms EU average systematically in the last 5 years GDP growth and tax rate GDP growth rate (%) comparison¹ Corporate tax rate in selected countries, 2016 (%)² 4,0 21 3,5 20 20 Bulgaria % % % 3,0 19 19 2,5 % % 2,0 EU average 16 1,5 % 15 1,0 10 % % 0,5 0,0 2013 2014 2015 2016 -0,5 Bulgaria Serbia Romania Czech Poland UK Turkey Slovakia Sources: 1 World Bank 2 Eurostat | 6 In 2016, Bulgaria has moved up two places to become the 5th rank holder in the EU regarding GDP growth rate GDP growth rates - EU member States comparison GDP growth rate of the EU member states in 2016 (%) 5,5 5,2 5,0 5,0 4,8 4,5 4,2 4,0 3,4 3,5 3,3 3,2 3,2 2,9 3,0 2,8 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 EU 28 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,4 average 1,5 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,0 0,9 0,5 0,0 0,0 IE MT RO LU BG SK ES SE HR CY PL SI CZ LT NL HU LV DE UK EE AT PT FI DK BE FR IT EL Source: World Bank | 7 Bulgaria offers highly competitive cost structure – both in terms of fix and variable costs Competitive cost of doing business Electricity Gas Water Industrial rents Office rents Cost of Labour BG¹ 0,079 €/kWh 0,019 €/kWh 1,09 €/m³ From 2,5 €/m² per From 12 €/m² ∅ hourly wage (5th most competitive in EU) (most competitive in EU) month per month 4,40 € (Sofia) (Sofia) (most competitive in EU) 0,114 €/kWh 0,03 €/kWh 4,09 €/m³ ~14 €/m² per ~38 €/m² per ∅ hourly wage EU-28² (Frankfurt)3 month month ~25 € 4 4 (Frankfurt) (Frankfurt) DE: >30 ; CZ, PL: ~10 €; RO: 5,5 € Cost 30% 36 % 73% 82% 68% 82% benefit Sources: 1 National Statistical Institute 2 Eurostat 3 Global Water Intelligence | 8 4 Statista Bulgaria has a balanced GDP composition with above average industry sector portion, while trade volume keeps increasing GDP composition and trade volume development Trade volume growth between Bulgaria and GDP composition in 2016 (%)¹ the rest of the world (BGN million)2 4,4 1,5 55 000 24,5 Imports 28 50 000 45 000 Exports 67,6 74,1 40 000 Bulgaria EU 35 000 Services Industry Agriculture 30 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: 1 World Bank 2 National Statistical Institute | 9 EU accounts for >64% of the trade volume – Germany, Italy and Romania being the major trading partner International trade volume and distribution Trade volume1 development between Bulgaria and Trade volume distribution between Bulgaria the rest of the world (million BGN) and the EU in 2015 (%) 100 000 90 000 19,8% EU 80 000 Germany CIS 70 000 35,8% Italy OECD 60 000 Romania Others 50 000 Greece 13,0% 40 000 France 30 000 Spain 20 000 5,5% 11,6% Others 10 000 5,7% 8,7% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: National Statistical Institute 1 Trade volume = Exports + Imports | 10 Content Why invest in Bulgaria What is Bulgaria’s proposition as an investment destination? Why invest in Tourism What are Bulgaria’s competitive advantages as an investment destination in tourism? Investment projects Overview of different investment opportunities in the Bulgarian tourism sector | 11 Tourism in BG profits from its proximity to main markets, however further positioning as high-end, year-round destination is required SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses . Relative proximity to leading global . Clear seasonality of tourism generating markets (e.g. Germany) . Tendency to reduce the average length . High cost competitiveness of stay . Well-developed airport and partly . Insufficient marketing to position BG road infrastructure in the high-end tourism sector (HR) . Increasing penetration of low-cost . Unevenly developed transport airlines (WizzAir, RyanAir) with infrastructure increasing number of lanes Opportunities Threats . Favorable and stable economic . Availability of skilled workforce environment for tourism development . Changes in behavior, attitudes and . Facilitating visa regimes (e.g. China) motivation of tourists . Increasing the number of trips at the . Lack of focus on service and safety expense of the duration . External risks: climate change, terror . Increasing the price advantage when attacks to potentially shift tourist inflows searching for a tourist trip | 12 With 6% CAGR of tourist arrivals for the last 5 years, Bulgaria’s tourism sector outperforms the EU and World average Tourism: a growing industry worldwide International tourist arrivals worldwide (millions)1 International tourist arrivals in Bulgaria (thousands)2 EU World CAGR 4,6% CAGR +6,0% +7,7% CAGR 4,3% 1.235 8 887 1.137 1.189 8 251 1.093 +18% 1.045 7 310 7 098 6 540 6 897 +26,2% 478 500 417 433 454 +20% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E2017³ CAGR: compound annual growth rate Sources: 1 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer 3 The estimated number for 2017 is calculated based on the recorded growth for the period 2 National Statistical Institute January-June 2017 | 13 Bulgaria’s tourism growth exceeds that of competitors Turkey, Italy and France, however lies behind Spain, Croatia and Greece Tourist arrivals – selected CAGR comparison CAGR of the number of international tourist arrivals between 2012-20161 (%) 12,4 10,6 7,4 7,1 6,0 4,6 4,3 4,2 3,1 1,7 0,2 -5,5 Greece Romania Croatia Spain Bulgaria EU World Poland Italy Central & France Turkey² Eastern Europe Sources: 1 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer 2 Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey | 14 The tourism sector in Bulgaria is expected to grow by more than 50% in the next 10 years making it a vital part of the country’s GDP Tourism growth and contribution to GDP Bulgarian Tourism sector contribution to GDP (BGN million) Tourism contribution as % to the GDP Direct +52% Bulgaria Indirect 18 345 EU Induced 16,7 5 238 +4% +58% 11 618 12 069 12,8 11,2 3 116 3 259 10,2 10 304 6 529 6 818 1 974 1 992 2 804 2016 E2017 E2027 2016 E2027 Source: World Travel & Tourism Council % of total GDP % of total GDP Direct: sum of internal tourism consumption and purchases by tourism providers Indirect: sum of supply chain, investment and government collective Induced: broader contribution of those in/directly employed by the tourism sector | 15 The number of international tourist arrivals in Bulgaria is growing by 6% p.a.
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