Mohammad Y Al-Hashel
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THE BATTLE FOR RELEVANCE* Assalam-o-Alaikum and a very good morning to you all. It gives me great pleasure to welcome you today to this international banking conference. I would like to start by expressing my deepest gratitude to His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah for his patronage of this conference. It is the guidance and wise leadership of His Highness that has enabled us to build one of the region’s safest and most robust financial systems, which has played a vital role in the development of our economy. I would like to thank all the honorable governors of central banks, heads of regulatory authorities, heads of financial institutions and other distinguished guests for joining us today. And I am grateful to all the distinguished speakers who are participating in this event, our local banks who have partnered with us to support this conference and my dedicated colleagues at the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) for their efforts in organizing this conference. The banking industry has enjoyed exceptional growth over the past half century, and despite some shortcomings, it has played a critical role in supporting economic growth around the world. During normal times, one would expect banks to continue operating as they have in the past, with perhaps a greater focus on product innovation or operational efficiency. But we are not living in normal times. Today, the global banking industry is at a major inflection point, facing several internal and external challenges that are coming * Keynote speech delivered by H.E. Dr. Mohammad Y. Al-Hashel, Governor, Central Bank of Kuwait at CBK International Banking Conference: Shaping the Future, September 23rd 2019, Four Seasons Hotel, Kuwait City – Kuwait. بنك الكويت المركزي - عام Central Bank of Kuwait - Public - 2 - together to create a perfect storm. Certainly, the industry will not be able to weather this storm by holding on to the same course it has pursued for decades. Rather it must reinvent itself for the future. That is why CBK is organizing this event under the theme of ‘Shaping the Future’. We believe that all stakeholders in the banking industry need to take a proactive role in shaping the way banks operate in the future, rather than continuing along the well-trodden path, no matter how well that path had previously served them. Taking this opportunity, I would like to share a few thoughts on our vision for the evolution of the banking industry. I will begin with a brief overview of the major challenges that the industry faces today. Second, I will reflect on the key areas that banks will need to focus on in order to stay relevant. Finally, I will touch upon the role that enabling stakeholders need to play to support the banking industry through its transformative journey. 1-Challenging Operating Environment So, let me start with a brief discussion on the key challenges that the banking industry faces today. Three challenges are particularly worth highlighting: the state of the global economy; the revolution in financial technology; and the rapidly evolving needs and expectations of customers. i. Global Economy First, let us look at the global economy where headwinds are intensifying. The IMF has twice lowered its global growth projections for 2019 to 3.2%, with developed economies expected to grow at a much slower rate of 1.9%1. A key driver of this slowdown is the economic uncertainty brought about by rising trade tensions and protectionist policies. If trade tensions continue, the IMF may بنك الكويت المركزي - عام Central Bank of Kuwait - Public - 3 - further revise down its economic growth projections. The Bank of England estimates that a 10% increase in tariffs between the US and its trading partners could lead to a reduction of 2.5% in US GDP, and 1% in global GDP excluding the US.2 In its recent publication, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) also highlighted economic policy uncertainty as a key risk to business sentiment. The IIF estimates that economic policy uncertainty in both the US and China is at a record high, and its impact is being felt in terms of reduced investments and lower consumption.3 We have already seen the impact of trade disputes and attendant economic uncertainty on markets across the globe. Prominent indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 have declined by an average of around 7% in mid-August, from highs in July. Another factor linked to the economic outlook is the role of monetary policy. Economic growth in the last decade has mainly been driven by the use of unconventional monetary policies. While these policies have supported economic recovery following the global financial crisis, by ensuring a low interest rate environment, they have led to other unintended consequences like fueling debt levels across the globe. Thanks to low interest rates, global debt has ballooned to over $246 trillion, nearly 320% of global GDP.4 While household debt has seen a gradual increase (3% growth per annum), the real growth in debt lies with governments, financial institutions and corporates. In particular, government debt has doubled since 2008, from $32 trillion to $67 trillion, especially with governments in developed economies having borrowed heavily over the past few years. Among OECD countries, Japan, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, France, Spain and the UK now all have government debt that exceeds their GDPs.5 This extended period of historically low interest rates has also enabled corporates from around the world to take advantage of cheap debt. Global corporate debt has also nearly doubled over the past decade, from $37 trillion to $73 trillion, even بنك الكويت المركزي - عام Central Bank of Kuwait - Public - 4 - surpassing the increase in government debt. But contrary to government debt, two- thirds of the growth in corporate debt has come from developing countries. This poses a serious risk to these economies, especially where the debt is in foreign currencies. We have also seen the quality of borrowers deteriorate. Bonds rated BBB- and below now account for half of global corporate bonds, compared to just a quarter in 2007, before the financial crisis. Global debt over the past 20 years has grown on average by 6% annually. If these rates continue, and global GDP grows by 3.5% per annum as projected, we could see global debt over the next 20 years reaching $780 trillion, or 500% of GDP. This is clearly unsustainable, and requires urgent action by both governments and financial institutions. More critically, the low interest rate environment has curtailed banks’ profits in some of the advanced markets, jeopardizing their longer-term viability. And record high debt levels are likely to pose increasing risk of defaults once monetary policy tightening takes course, potentially hurting the quality of banking assets. Collectively, these trends have serious implications for financial stability in general. Beyond banking, there is increasing risk of policy inaction amid weakening global governance, as evident from trade disputes. During the global financial crisis of 2008, advanced countries joined hands to fend off depression through a well- coordinated and robust policy response. In the face of a similar threat to global economy today, as highlighted by the increasing risk of a looming US recession in the next 12 months, expectations of a unified and powerful international policy response remain low, amid all the bickering over trade issues and growing nationalism. Such developments have further elevated the risks to global economy, particularly in the backdrop of rising geo-political tensions. بنك الكويت المركزي - عام Central Bank of Kuwait - Public - 5 - ii. Technology The second challenge we need to consider is the impact of technology on the banking industry. The latest digital technologies are transforming the economic landscape and are disrupting many traditional industries along the way. Banking is no exception, where financial technology is fast-evolving and being adopted at a breathtaking pace. Cutting edge technologies such as digital payments, mobile banking, data analytics, artificial intelligence, and blockchain are changing the way banks operate and interact with customers. FinTech firms are beginning to eliminate the role of many traditional intermediaries in the financial services industry. According to McKinsey, five major banking business segments are particularly at risk: consumer finance; mortgages; SMEs; payments; and wealth management. McKinsey estimates that this could put up to 40% of bank revenues at risk by 2025.6 Part of the reason is that FinTech firms can provide access to financial services in a more efficient and cost-effective manner. For example, some FinTech lenders have up to a 400-basis-point cost advantage over banks because they have no physical distribution costs. Another example is the execution of payments; transactions that used to take 3 to 5 days to process can now be completed in 3 to 5 seconds, and for less than one-tenth of the original cost. Although banks have generally been slow to innovate, they have sought to stay ahead of the game by partnering with or acquiring FinTech firms. According to a recent PwC report, over 54% of banks surveyed have already established partnerships with FinTech firms, and 82% expect to increase such partnerships in the next 3 to 5 years.7 بنك الكويت المركزي - عام Central Bank of Kuwait - Public - 6 - While banks can potentially manage the onslaught by the FinTech firms, the real challenge will be posed by the Big Techs. What would happen when the likes of Facebook, Amazon, Whatsapp, and Alibaba start competing with banks to provide financial services? These technology giants come with large and captive user bases, low online acquisition costs, and a better understanding of their customers through their utilization of big data.