Weather • Climate • Water Vol. 60 (1) - 2011 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int
REAChIng uSERS WITh ClIMATE SERVICES
Interview with Jan Egeland on Climate Services 3
A photographer documents a warming world 23
World Meteorological Organization
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The new communications climate, ISSN 0042-9767 Revisiting the East African as seen by The New York Times Financial markets drive malaria debate 9 Dot.Earth blog 41 demand for climate models 34 “Getting climate information to those who need it most – the poorest and the most vulnerable – is the greatest priority.”
Jan Egeland, Co-Chair, High-Level Taskforce of the Global Framework on Climate Services Bulletin Contents The journal of the In this issue...... 2 World Meteorological Climate services: Reaching the most vulnerable Organization Interview with Jan Egeland ...... 3 Some Frequently Asked Questions: The Global Framework ...... 5 Volume 60 (1) - 2011 for Climate Services
Secretary-General M. Jarraud Revisiting the East African malaria debate by Samuel M. Waweru, Judith A. Omumbo, Bradfield Lyon, Deputy Secretary-General J. Lengoasa Madeleine C. Thomson, Stephen J. Connor...... 9 Assistant Secretary-General E. Manaenkova
The WMO Bulletin is published twice per year Partnering for health early warning systems in English, French, Russian and Spanish. by David P. Rogers...... 14
Editor J. Lengoasa Associate Editor N. Domeisen Survey of financial firms outlines climate information needs by the UNEP Finance Initiative ...... 19 Editorial board J. Lengoasa (Chair) N. Domeisen (Secretary) Images of change: A photographer documents a warming world G. Asrar (climate research) by Gary Braasch ...... 23 C. Blondin (policy, external relations) G. Love (weather and disaster risk reduction) Financial markets drive demand for climate models R. Masters (development, regional activities) by Rowan Douglas ...... 34 B. Ryan (satellites) M. Sivakumar (climate) A. Tyagi (water) Bring financial and scientific analysts together J. Wilson (education and training) Interview with Dominic Waughray ...... 38 Wenjian Zhang (observing and information systems) The new communications climate by Andrew C. Revkin ...... 41 Subscription rates Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 Student research for an informed generation 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 by Teresa J. Kennedy and Donna J. Charlevoix ...... 44 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 Creating a volunteer observing network E-mail: [email protected] Interview with Nolan Doesken and Henry Reges ...... 48
Contribute to BLUE Art...... 53
WMO Milestones...... 54
The World Meteorological Organization...... 55 Copyright © World Meteorological Organization, 2011 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from articles in the Bulletin may be reproduced without authoriza- www.wmo.int tion provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Requests to publish, reproduce or translate articles in part or For more news on WMO and its partners: in whole should be addressed to the Editor. • MeteoWorld, WMO’s newsletter at www.wmo.int/pages/publications/meteoworld The designations employed in the WMO Bulletin and the pres- • Media centre, news at www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news entation of material therein do not imply the expression of any • Web pages of WMO programmes opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its WMO Bulletin frontiers or boundaries. www.wmo.int/bulletin_en Opinions expressed in articles or in advertisements appearing Public Information Products and Website Management Unit in the WMO Bulletin are the author’s or advertiser’s opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) specific companies or products in articles or advertisements 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: + 41 22 730 83 85 does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not Case postale No. 2300 Fax: + 41 22 730 80 24 mentioned or advertised. CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 1 In this issue
Climate change is one of the great- deliver climate services through a A perspective est challenges facing humankind. global framework. from the media We have the means today to bring sector is offered life-saving information to those who by The New York need it most, and a responsibility to What users need Times Dot.Earth make this a reality. blog columnist, who asks for agility and Climate services are needed by all responsiveness to new online media, parts of society. This issue of the as we tap opportunities presented by WMO has taken the lead in addressing Bulletin features voices from the the rise in use of mobile phones and this challenge. At the World Climate sectors of health, financial services social media. Conference-3, WMO was asked to and media. convene a Taskforce to explore how climate knowledge could be put into In the health sector, collaboration Effective outreach action. The report of the Taskforce, between health researchers and the Communicating climate information Climate Knowledge for Action: A Kenyan Meteorological Service has effectively is challenging, and takes Global Framework for Climate Services brought new insight to the debates many forms. It can range from broad – Empowering the most vulnerable, linking malaria to a rise in temperatures sensitization through education and was launched in May 2011. in the East African highlands. media, to reports for specific sectors, conferences bringing together various This issue of the WMO Bulletin A companion article outlines communities in new ways, targeted contributes to the discussion on collaborative trends in health early communication of specific warnings reaching users with climate services. warning systems and includes a and more. We explore: summary of climate-sensitive diseases. • The case for a Global Framework It shows the scope for partnership We include a few case examples as for Climate Services between the health and meteorological food for thought. In education, we • What users need (perspectives communities to protect human health feature the forthcoming Student from various sectors) through health early warning systems. Climate Research Campaign, and • Effective outreach for climate share views on how experience-based services. In the financial sector, banks, investors, science education can contribute to insurers and reinsurers are important a young generation that is informed Reaching the most users of climate services. A survey of about science issues. An interview with vulnerable 60 financial institutions around the a volunteer observing network shows world shows how climate information how people can learn about climate Our opening articles make the case is becoming more important in the by being involved in data collection, for providing climate services to a decisions made by bankers and and make a valuable contribution wide range of people in society. An investors and outlines priorities by to science. Finally, a photo essay interview with Jan Egeland, Co-Chair sector. chronicles some of the changes around of the High-Level Taskforce for us, and suggests how photographers the Global Framework for Climate The growing demand for climate and meteorologists can work together Services, notes that the Taskforce was information from the financial to sensitize a broader public. unanimous in concluding that climate sector is driving the development of The next issue will feature more services can be made available rapidly operational climate forecasting, and user needs from various sectors and to those who need them most. a new supply chain linking scientists, financial markets and regulators is effective outreach practices. Please contact us if you have valuable cases To do so, we need to “connect the in the making. Two articles touch on and insights which you would like to dots” by using what is available, and by this trend, with a history of climate share with Bulletin readers. bridging the gaps. An accompanying modelling, and an interview about article answers frequently asked partnership between financial and questions about how we can best scientific analysts.
2 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Climate services: Reaching the most i vulnerable ass n Ab ga o Interview with Jan Egeland ©UN/ L
Q. What motivated you to accept the role as Co-Chair of Jan Egeland was Co-Chair of the High-Level the Taskforce for the Global Taskforce of the Global Framework on Climate Framework on Climate Services? Services. He is Executive Director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Jan Egeland: Climate change, coupled with the radical rise in natural disas- He has extensive experience in humanitarian, ters, is one of the greatest challenges human rights and peace work. Among his positions facing humankind. Bringing life- he has served as United Nations Under-Secretary- saving information to those who need General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency
it most is vital. To help pioneer an Jan Egeland Relief Coordinator; Secretary-General of the initiative that will bring information Norwegian Red Cross and State Secretary in the Norwegian Ministry about how climate will change and of Foreign Affairs. the dangers and opportunities it will bring is very motivating. It is a fantas- Mr. Egeland holds an MA in Political Science from the University tic opportunity to do good. of Oslo and was a Fulbright Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley. He published A Billion Lives, An Eyewitness Report from the Q. What are the priorities for Frontlines of Humanity. climate services?
Jan Egeland: Getting climate informa- cause climate change are the first communities there did not get the tion to those who need it most – the and hardest hit. We need to rectify information. If they had, they would poorest and the most vulnerable – is this. Bringing climate information to have slaughtered their livestock and absolutely the greatest priority. the most vulnerable and enabling brought it to markets to get money them to act is very important. for their meat. Instead, the animals Q. You’ve spent many years in suffered and the communities were leadership positions in humanitarian Q. What are the greatest devastated by the drought. affairs. What are the greatest needs challenges to achieving this? for climate services in this area? Q. That case highlights the Jan Egeland: There are two great importance of outreach. Jan Egeland: I’ve seen too many times challenges. Getting the right how hundreds of thousands of lives information out to the right people Jan Egeland: Yes, there has to be a can be lost, and millions of people in time for them to prepare is the first. strong partnership among global, devastated, by extreme weather Having sufficient resources to act is regional and national levels to events. These are more and more the second. I remember vividly as downscale information. There has frequent, and affect more people, the United Nations Emergency Relief to be enough national capacity to who are more exposed. Coordinator that we had information receive and understand information at an international level showing that from the United Nations and The greatest injustice on our watch there would be yet another year of non-governmental organizations, is that those who did the least to drought in the Sahel. But nomadic so that action can be taken in four
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 3 For observing stations, we are concerned that vital Global Climate Observing System stations are not regularly reporting, and so have proposed that funds be found to restore the reports from 100 surface stations and 10 upper air stations.
Governance and coordination mechanisms are also needed to enhance what exists and what will n
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t Gon get information to those who need information, don’t get it and don’t Alber have the capacity to receive and © UN / interpret the information. Climate information can assist in agriculture planning in the most vulnerable countries. Q. In closing, what message would you like to share? priority areas: agriculture, health, science, organization and investment, water management and disaster all countries should have similar Jan Egeland: I’m an optimist. I think reduction. access. that advances in science can and will be more justly shared around Q. How do we get there? Q. This shows how regional the world in the next few years, and cooperation is important too. that we will see the fruits of these Jan Egeland: W ith a mode s t advances: fewer people dead from investment of US$ 75 million per year Jan Egeland: Yes. Many countries over the next ten years, supplemented won’t have the capacity to have by existing national investments in supercomputers and global modelling We need to connect the meteorology, we can upgrade regional to predict seasonal, yearly and dots by using what is and national capacity for climate two-year patterns. They need to plug users, in areas such as research into a global framework to obtain available and observing systems. Over the this information. There are half a course of 10 months in 2010, we in dozen countries that have virtually the Taskforce visited China, India, the no capability to provide services, hunger, fewer crops dried up, more USA, Germany and other places. We and another 64 countries that need epidemics prevented, more water were always very impressed by how a serious upgrade, as they do not harnessed. The world should not let many countries made advances in reach what the Taskforce considered this opportunity go by. developing and disseminating climate to be a basic minimum level of climate information. The status available in service capability. The Taskforce I co-chaired with China, for instance, should be the Mahmoud Abu-Zeid of Egypt was status of all developing countries. That’s why we need to reinforce unanimous in its conclusion. We saw The Chinese have excellent weather existing regional centres with global compelling evidence that climate and climate information that is modelling capacities. Four new services can and should be available disseminated all over China, and to centres and four upgraded centres in the next four to eight years to those neighbouring countries. Through would fill gaps in the existing system. who need them most.
4 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Some Frequently Asked Questions:
The Global Framework d/ ee a riq S a T
for Climate Services © IRIN/
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What do an air conditioning engineer, a farmer and a city planner have in The World Climate Conference-3, held in 2009, directed WMO common? Each uses climate infor- to convene a High-Level Taskforce for the Global Framework for mation to do his or her job properly. Climate Services. The Taskforce met several times in 2010 and consulted widely. Its report, Climate Knowledge for Action: A Global The engineer incorporates detailed Framework for Climate Services – Empowering the most vulnerable was temperature and humidity data in his launched in May 2011. It outlines the current state of climate services, or her designs; the farmer regularly gaps in climate service provisions, and its recommendations for a reviews past records and future Global Framework for Climate Services. It was reviewed at the inter- outlooks for rain or drought; and the governmental WMO Congress in May. This article is adapted from planner explores the risks of floods an extensive brochure that accompanies the report. For updates and and pollution in different districts. more information, see http://www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.html
Making climate data and information available to these professionals – and to countless millions of others facing services worldwide, and particularly Why propose a new initiative on diverse questions and decisions – is for developing countries. climate services? the task of climate services. Central players in climate services Global cooperation to share expertise But in many places and situations, are the National Meteorological and and data can significantly reduce the especially in developing countries, Hydrological Services, which already impact and cost of climatic events like the necessary data, information and collect and exchange climate data, drought, storms and floods. expertise is often not available. The undertake research, and generate consequences are higher impacts climate information products. Many people are not aware of the and costs to their communities and Through the Framework they will help benefits of climate information, businesses. develop protocols and standards for data exchange between themselves What will the Framework do? and other organizations as well as improve information products and CLIMATE Put simply, the Global Framework service delivery. The Framework will KNOWLEDGE FOR for Climate Services is a globally systematically build capacity in these FOR ACTION ACTION: coordinated collective of the national organizations where needed. A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK organizations that are already FOR CLIMATE SERVICES– EMPOWERING engaged in producing and using The Framework will also foster THE MOST VULNERABLE
For more information, please contact: CLIMATE KNOWLEDGE climate information and services. stronger relationshipsWorld Meteorologicalbetween Organization Communications and Public Affairs Office Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 83 14 – Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 27 THE REPORT OF THE HIGH-LEVEL TASKFORCE E-mail: [email protected] The aim in bringing these together researchers, climate7 bis, avenue de la Paixinformation – P.O. Box 2300 – CH 1211 Geneva 2 – Switzerland FOR THE GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES www.wmo.int
P-WDS_101813 UN SYSTEM through the Framework is to enable providers and users, to help ensure DELIVERING AS ONE ON WMO-No. 1065 CLIMATE KNOWLEDGE producers, researchers and user that the right information is available organizations to join forces to lift to all sectors of society for day-to-day the quality and volume of climate and longer-term planning.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 5 or lack the necessary expertise or Farmers, water managers, planners, • Risk analyses of extreme condi- access to it. Climate information is energy specialists, marine operators, tions; and used to avoid and manage risk, and construction managers, disaster • Risk assessments of hazards such to take advantage of climate-related managers and insurance experts as drought or fire. opportunities. are examples of people who are very affected by climate and use climate Climate data may be combined with Climate services are weakest where services to make business decisions. industry or economic data to produce they are needed most, in climate- assessments or predictions of vulnerable developing countries. Quality climate services are based on production levels, demand or prices. good data. The data are drawn from New scientific products include The foundations for a global system national and international databases, predictions of El Niño conditions, exist: there are weather and climate and cover things such as temperature, seasonal outlooks for rainfall or observing systems and data exchange, rainfall, wind, soil moisture and ocean temperature as well as long-term climate research programmes and conditions. projections of conditions under risk management techniques that are climate change. used in different economic and social This data is then used to prepare sectors. a climate information product and How do weather and climate deliver it to users in a way that services differ? What is lacking is a global framework meets their needs. A product may to link these elements, address include data, statistical summaries, Time frames make the difference. shortcomings and fill in the gaps. predictions and advice. It may be Weather services describe short- One needs a supply chain for climate as simple as the average rainfall term conditions – what is happening services that can be used at every for a locality, or as elaborate as a now and how the weather will evolve level in society. This requires a global countrywide analysis of past and over the next few days, sometimes mobilization of effort and partnership future climatic risks. Products may up to ten days ahead. By contrast, across political, sectoral and scientific be generated automatically for climate services address patterns of boundaries. widespread use or customized to conditions over longer time frames. address a user’s problem. These may cover the next few What are climate services? Who months, years, or decades ahead. uses them? Traditional climate information products include: Most people are familiar with the A climate service includes an • Historical data sets for particu- daily weather forecast, which information process and products lar places; gives outlooks for temperature, to help people manage climate risks • Statistical summaries, such as precipitation and wind conditions and opportunities. long-term averages or maps; over coming days, as well as warnings of severe weather conditions. Weather services are based on detailed observations of current weather conditions and on how these are likely to develop in the hours and days ahead.
Climate services focus on the longer- term climate at different times of the year, such as the temperature and rainfall for different localities and months or the average occurrence of extreme events like heatwaves or floods. These products are very important for planning. Our knowledge of the climate system and
a climate change has grown recently,
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©UN/ climatic conditions for seasons and Displaced children fetch water after floods in Sudan in 2008. years ahead.
6 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Who produces climate services How is the Global now? Framework for Good management of climatic risks Climate Services The sources depend on national related to climate today is the foundation for managing circumstances and government change? the changed climatic risks of policies. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are the most This Framework tomorrow common provider of climate services. can contribute to Other organizations are involved climate change in this work are oceanographic policy, especially for developing Services. Firstly, climate risks and agricultural institutes, climate countries. It will generate essential should be systematically managed research centres, satellite operators, information to support new policies by all countries, industries and universities and businesses. The on climate change and development communities. Secondly, new levels private sector is increasingly active such as expanded renewable of cooperation and collaboration in producing commercial value- energies, better water management, are needed to achieve this capability added information to serve particular reafforestation and energy efficiency. globally. clients. The Framework is designed to improve climate data collection, The innovative aspect of the National meteorological and availability and information. It can Framework is its end-to-end package hydrological organizations have a key also strengthen country adaptation to develop global collaboration and position in climate services because capabilities. operations. These are: of their core role in protecting public • The User interface platform, a safety and responsibilities for weather Industries need to know what is forum to promote and develop observations. The weather data they happening in the climate system and user interests; collect is authoritative and vital for to be prepared to deal with future • The Climate services information climate data archives. Many are very climate events. Good management system, a network to exchange active in climate research and assist of the climatic risks today is the data and data products; national policymaking on climate foundation for managing the changed • Observations and monitoring, change. climatic risks of tomorrow. to assemble climate-related data from diverse national and inter- This is why the High-Level Taskforce What is innovative about the national systems; recommended that the organization Framework? • Research, modelling and predic- of the Global Framework for tion, to develop and communicate Climate Services be coordinated There are two core ideas underpinning new knowledge; and internationally by WMO. the Global Framework for Climate • Capacity building, to support development.
Users, governments, the private sector, research and sectors such as The User interface platform and agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment, the Climate services information tourism and transport system are two important new developments. The Framework’s proposed multiparty leadership and coordination arrangements will also User interface require considerable innovation.
In practical terms, how will the Climate services information system Framework operate?
The Framework is best seen as a Observations Research, modelling new, globally coordinated collective, and monitoring and prediction comprised largely of existing organizations that produce and use Capacity building climate services. The collaboration will enable producers, researchers and user organizations to lift the The Global Framework for Climate Services is designed for capacity building occurring quality and volume of climate services within and between all its components.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 7 worldwide, particularly for developing Timing malaria prevention programmes now countries. use climate information. The Framework will be implemented Overall tasks progressively over the next 10 to Businesses and city managers 20 years. The forces are aligned for will benefit when making complex Climate services identified within rapid action and progress will already decisions questions about locating the Framework will be produced by be evident after two years. The Global industries and housing, investing in existing operational organizations, Climate Observing System has a strong infrastructure, and managing seasonal mostly national ones. A key task will be foundation and can target developing fluctuations in supply and demand of to establish agreements and protocols countries where quick upgrading is energy, water and sometimes food. among the world’s governments and possible. Many technical organizations Communities will benefit from better technical organizations describing are ready and waiting to contribute access to climate information when what information will be exchanged, to the design of the Climate Services making decisions about local risks between which governments, Information System and related data and opportunities. organizations and individuals, and questions. Building upon these existing by what means. foundations will pay off in the long Data gatherers will see their data being run. The shape of action will become used and will learn what data is most Areas of collaboration clearer as agreements are forged needed, climate service operators will between nearly 200 governments, develop better knowledge and more Collaborative action is suggested in hundreds of different organizations innovative products, researchers will five areas of importance: observations join in the effort, and many technical see their results put into practice, and and monitoring; research, modelling capacities are developed. users will be better able to voice their and prediction; systems for needs and experience. information exchange; user interests; Who will benefit most? and capacity building. International How will we measure success? expert committees will lead the work Communities and industries that in each area. are vulnerable to climate variations, In the short term, success will be particularly poor communities in measured by the level and breadth Funding developing countries affected by of support from potential participants droughts, floods, tropical storms in developing countries, sectoral In many countries the Framework can and other extreme conditions, will organizations, user representatives serve as a component of a national benefit most. Land and ocean- and funding agencies. climate adaptation programme. based industries such as agriculture, Much of the cost of implementing the health, water resources, tourism and Over time, success will be determined Framework will be absorbed as part transportation also will be primary by how much improvement occurs of ongoing improvement of existing beneficiaries. in the access and effective use of programmes, which exceed several climate information by vulnerable billions of US dollars annually, on a Public agencies will benefit, such as communities. Measures of success global scale. Developed countries are those in health, housing, construction, are likely to be the quality and likely to require only small adjustments land use planning, environmental availability of climate observation of existing programmes with little management, and disaster programmes, climate data exchange extra cost. Additional costs will management. For example, climate systems, expertise to support national cover priority projects for developing information is essential to regulate and regional users, and the level of countries. Additional costs will land use, protect the environment systematic use of climate information focusing on upgrading data collection and design building codes to avoid in different sectors. and interface; regional support; the building collapse. It is heavily used in Global Climate Observing System; agricultural and water supply planning and a small international secretariat and in managing the social and to coordinate the Framework. economic impact of drought. Some
8 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011
Revisiting the East African malaria debate lieb By Samuel M. Waweru1, Judith A. Omumbo2, Bradfield tt d Go 2 2 2 i
Lyon , Madeleine C. Thomson , Stephen J. Connor av © D
Vociferous debate has been under- complex, with interactions between Likewise, national meteorological way over whether a rise in malaria multiple, constantly changing factors and climate communities need in the Kenyan highlands, observed that are challenging to measure. to take steps to provide effective, during the last thirty years, can be The development of the mosquito policy-relevant climate information associated with local temperature vector and parasite are temperature- and services for the health sector. changes, and whether these changes dependent and so transmission The Global Framework for Climate are connected to global climate models are highly sensitive to Services, the key outcome of the change processes. Many studies variations in ambient temperature. World Climate Conference-3 (2009), document the debate (12, 16, 18, 19). along with African initiatives such as The case of the Kenyan highlands is In this study, the data used included Climate for Development in Africa, pertinent as other parts of Africa face climatological data, temperature, will address the availability of data, similar challenges including highlands rainfall and vapour pressure. Climate tailored climate services and effective of Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and the information helps monitor and predict relationships that focus on user needs. United Republic of Tanzania. malaria’s distribution, seasonality, Services should be tailored to demand year-to-year variability and longer- and the health community should A new study (2), supported by the term trends. Health professionals make its needs heard (18, 19). For Kenyan Meteorological Department, increasingly recognize climate as a this reason, the full Kericho study has establishes a long-term warming pre-requisite for accurate assessment been published within health circles trend at Kericho, in the Kenyan of malaria interventions. and this companion article has been highlands, and associates the trend prepared for the meteorological partly with sea surface and land To make use of new opportunities community. surface temperatures in the tropics. for climate-related health risk The study provides important management, the health community Malaria in East Africa evidence to resolve the debate. It must: also demonstrates that partnership • Partner with climate and envi- with National Hydrological and ronment research and service Since the suggestion in 1998 that Meteorological Services is essential to communities; global warming may trigger ensure that the most climate-relevant • Work to overcome policy and geographic spread of malaria data and services are available. institutional barriers; and transmission into previously • Identify opportunities for malaria–free highland areas (1), Malaria is the best-known disease effective use of climate infor- multiple peer-reviewed publications, that is sensitive to changes in climate. mation in health policy and newspaper articles, editorials and The dynamics of its transmission are decision-making. blogs have been written without resolving the debate. The controversy has centered on tea estates in Kericho, 1 Kenya Meteorological Department an East African highlands district that 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia lies 1 600 to 3 000 metres above sea University, USA level, west of the Great Rift Valley in This article is adapted from a full report of the study, Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: Revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate, published Kenya. The region is ideally suited for in Malaria Journal 2011, 10:12, at http://www.malariajournal.com/content/10/1/12. growing tea, with its warm climate
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 9 Climate data for Kericho confirms warming trend
The joint study of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of the Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA and the Kenyan Meteorological Department highlights the importance of knowing the origins of the climate data, the need for quality control and an understanding of the mechanisms by which local climate variability and change relate to larger climatic processes, before inferences are made.
An analyisis of “gold standard” meteorological information, provided by the Kenyan Meteorological Department, provides clear Time series of monthly departures from 1980-2009 mean values (deg. C) with evidence of warming trends in maximum, an 11-month moving average applied for Kericho Tmean (green line), global minimum and mean temperatures between tropical SST (25S-25N) (red line) and tropical land area mean temperature 1979-2009. Furthermore the highly significant (blue line). Colour bars at the bottom of the figure show the occurrence of (p<0.01) positive trends (0.21°C, 0.24°C and El Niño and La Niña events (based on definition in use at the US Climate 0.21°C per decade for mean, maximum and Prediction Center). See other graph for temporal correlations between these minimum temperature, respectively) presented variables. Source: Omumbo et al. Malaria Journal 2011 10:12 here were found after careful correction of the time series, a process which will have reduced rather than exaggerated any previously reported trends in the Kericho data set.
In addition, monthly departures from long- term (1980-2009) monthly mean values of maximum, minimum and mean temperature and precipitation were computed. An 11-month moving average was then applied to one set of the resulting time series. All four variables were also retained for analysis with other climate variables, including monthly time series with the linear trend removed. Tropical sea-surface temperature data were also included in the Time series of Tn based on versions CRU05 and v2.1 of the UEA CRU data for analysis. the period 1970 to 1995 (CRU05) and 2002 (v2.1). Best-fit liner regressions are shown as dashed for the two versions, which show marked differences. Kericho’s mean temperature time series was Source: Omumbo et al. Malaria Journal 2011 10:12 compared, for example, to the average tropical (25°S-25°N) sea-surface temperature and land temperature anomalies (departures from the average monthly values for the period 1980-2009). An 11-month moving average was applied to each time series to emphasize variations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Significant correlations were found between the temperature mean and the two tropics-wide time series (see figure).
A comparison of trends for two versions of the University of East Anglia data was also made. The departure from the monthly average temperature (1971-2000) for the grid point data closest to the Kericho station was made for these two versions of the dataset (an 11-month moving average applied). The trend line for v2.1 has a positive slope while interim CRU05 shows essentially no trend.
and well-distributed rainfall. Over demographics and environment. A time series of quality-controlled 30 years of laboratory-confirmed Local, official climate data have daily temperature and rainfall data malaria incidence data are available not been available, leading to from the Kenya Meteorological from the Brooke Bond (Unilever) tea debate about the correlation Department observing station at estate health facilities, with careful between temperature trends and Kericho has helped to resolve this attention to intervention coverage, malaria. decade-long controversy. A significant
10 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 lieb tt d Go i av © D Judith Omumbo (far right), a member of the research team, meets with Kericho tea estate workers.
upward temperature trend has Studies relied heavily on short-time relies heavily on the quality and occurred over the last three decades. series of station data, with inadequate consistency of observation input These results support the view that quality control, or ignored local data. Given inadequate access to climate should be included, along with ground observations completely in station observations, many studies factors such as land use change and favour of interpolated data that are of Kericho temperature trends based drug resistance, when considering intended for regional or global-scale their analyses on versions of gridded trends in malaria and the impacts of analyses, and use only a fraction of data developed by the Climate interventions for its control. the stations maintained by National Research Unit of the University of East Meteorological and Hydrological Anglia. The data are monthly mean Services. As a result, analysts relied on values of surface climate variables Controversy: Some the interpolated temperature surfaces, for global land areas developed for a poor choice for local-level analyses. continental or global applications found it hot, some not These limitations have been clearly (5). The lack of agreement regarding stated by the producers of these temperature trends over Kericho has Previous studies of Kericho and data (5). largely resulted from the use of these elsewhere in the East African interpolated data. highlands provide strong evidence of resurgence and emergence of Climate data gaps Previous analyses of the Kericho malaria in the 1980s and 1990s (3). tea estate malaria data with local This trend may have been arrested Although available within national monthly averaged meteorological or reversed in some areas by large- meteorological services, the cost to observations recorded at the Tea scale malaria interventions since 2005. obtain daily records is a significant Research Foundation found no Studies using malaria data from the constraint. Technical, capacity and evidence of significant changes in Kericho tea estate argued that climate institutional gaps need to be bridged climate during the period of observed changes were not a significant factor to enable full access, quality control malaria increase (3,7). The authors contributing to the trend observed (3, and proper use of these data (6). concluded that drug resistance, 4). The reason that previous studies rather than climate change, was the disagree is that researchers had Public domain, gridded climate likely cause of increased malaria limited access to quality data from data have improved for many parts transmission. Furthermore, Fourier Kericho meteorological stations. of the world but their accuracy Analysis of an extended version of the
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 11 lieb tt d Go i av © D The Kenyan Meteorological Department has helped to establish the link between a changing climate and malaria in Kericho, Kenya.
same data set was used to infer that significant change in temperature and Research in Nairobi performed the observed inter-epidemic period over recent decades.” Other studies quality control, including: of malaria incidence at Kericho was (9,15,16) have made conclusions along • Updating of missing records; related to population dynamics rather the same lines. • Verification of new records; and than cyclical changes in temperature • Checks for range and consistency. or rainfall (8,9). Including the Southern Bridging the gap Oscillation Index in the analysis did An adjusted monthly time series not change the result. Subsequent of maximum, minimum and mean studies by the same authors were Three recent versions of the University temperatures was examined for reinforced by the University of East of East Anglia data were compared statistically significant temporal trends Anglia gridded data set (4, 9-12) and in the latest study, the most recent between 1977 and 2009. Upward trends led the authors to conclude that incorporating an additional four years on the order of +0.2°C per decade were “analyses of malaria time-series at of observations; all were examined found for all three of the temperature sites such as Kericho have shown for temporal consistency. The local, variables. While local factors may that malaria incidence in the Kenyan observed climate variations at Kericho contribute to the upward trend at highlands has increased in the were also compared with larger scale Kericho, it was found to be consistent absence of co-varying changes in climate variations, including tropical with trends in the global tropics. This climate.” (10) sea-surface temperature and the El indicates that both local and large-scale Niño-Southern Oscillation. climate variations are likely at work and Others drew attention to the gives additional validity to the finding inappropriate use of the UEA data The Kenya Meteorological of an increasing trend in temperatures (13), while some misconstrued the Department (KMD) bridged the at this site. results to be based on local official data gap by constructing digitized meteorological records and concluded time series of daily maximum The value of reliable data that climate cannot be considered an and minimum temperature and important factor in the frequency and accumulated precipitation for the Climate remains a potential driver of intensity of malaria epidemics in the Kericho observing station (33.35E, malaria. Climate measurements, made Kenyan highlands. For example, a 0.36S). The data cover 1 January 1979 outside of the health sector, are unique 2008 review article on malaria and to 31 December 2009 for maximum because they are recorded according global warming (14) referred to the and minimum temperatures and to globally recognized standards at Kericho analysis (18) and wrote, precipitation for the period 1 January defined, regular time intervals. This “Moreover, a set of well-maintained 1980 to 31 December 2009. The KMD allows for systematic analysis at local meteorological records shows no Institute of Meteorological Training and global scale, in order to allow
12 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 comparison across geographical of malaria in a changing global transmission potential has yet sites and over extended time periods. environment. A prerequisite is relevant to be assessed, indications from The fundamental characteristics of quality control for both climate and other studies suggest that in this climatology, seasonality, diurnal epidemiological data. The positive region, even a modest change in rhythm and potential predictability trends in all three climate variables temperature can have a significant at multiple timescales (weather, (mean temperature, maximum and effect on transmission (16, 17). To seasonal, decadal and longer) make minimum temperatures) suggest that ensure adequate understanding them ideal as additional information climatic factors in Kericho cannot be of climate processes in disease layers for the health sector to apply dismissed as a driver of variability and transmission, high-quality data in malaria vulnerability assessment, trends in malaria incidence. coupled with the skilled interpretation surveillance and forecasting. of epidemiologists, climate scientists While the significance of the warming and meteorologists is required. Climate data helps us understand trend observed in this study (>0.2°C the epidemiological characteristics per decade) to changes in malaria
References
1. Lindsay, S.W. and W.J.M. Martens,1998. Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 76 (1): 33-45.
2. Omumbo, J.A., S.M. Waweru, J. A. Omumbo, B. Lyon, M.C. Thomson, S.J. Connor, 2011. Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate. Malaria Journal 2001,10:12.
3. Malakooti M.A., K. Biomndo, G.D. Shanks, 1998. Re-emergence of epidemic malaria in the highlands of western Kenya. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 4 (4): 671-676.
4. Shanks G.D., S.I. Hay, D.I. Stern, K. Biomndo, R.W. Snow, 2002. Meteorologic influences on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the highland tea estates of Kericho, Western Kenya. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 8 (12): 1404-1408.
5. New M., M. Hulme, P. Jones, 2000. Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901-96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate. Journal of Climate. 13: 2217-2238. 6. IRI, 2006. A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. Palisades, NY, USA, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, pp. 1-52.
7. Shanks G.D., K. Biomndo, S.I. Hay, R.W. Snow, 2000. Changing patterns of clinical malaria since 1965 among a tea estate popula- tion located in the Kenyan highlands. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 94 (3): 253-255.
8. Hay S.I., M.F. Myers, D.S. Burke, D.W. Vaughn, T. Endy, N. Ananda, G.D. Shanks, R.W. Snow, D.J. Rogers, 2000. Etiology of inter-epidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 97 (16): 9335-9339.
9. Hay S.I., J. Cox, D.J. Rogers, S.E. Randolph, D.I. Stern, G.D. Shanks, M.F. Myers, R.W. Snow, 2002. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. Nature. 415: 905-909.
10. Hay S.I., D.J. Rogers, S.E. Randolph, D.I. Stern, J. Cox, G.D. Shanks, R.W. Snow, 2002. Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands. Trends in Parasitology. 18 (12): 530-534.
11. Rogers D.J., S.E. Randolph, R.W. Snow, S.I. Hay, 2002. Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria. Nature. 415: 710-715.
12. Shanks G.D., S.I. Hay, J.A. Omumbo, R.W. Snow, 2005. Malaria in Kenya’s western highlands. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 11: 1425–1432.
13. Patz J.A., M. Hulme, C. Rosenzweig, T.D. Mitchell, R.A. Goldberg, A.K. Githeko, S. Lele, A.J. McMichael, D. Le Sueur, 2002. Climate change (Communication arising): Regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature. 420: 627-628.
14. Reiter, P., 2008. Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart. Malaria Journal. 7 (S 1).
15. Pascual M., J.A. Ahumada, L.F. Chaves, X. Rodo, M.J. Bouma, 2006. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 103: 5829-5834.
16. Alonso D., M.J. Bouma, M. Pascual, 2010. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African high- land. Proceedings of the Royal Society B.: 1-9.
17. Paaijmans k.P., a.F. read, M.B. thomas, 2009. Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. 106 _ (33): 13844–13849 (2009).
18. Connor S.J., J. Omumbo, C. Green, J. DaSilva, G. Mantilla, C. Delacollette, S. Hales, D. Rogers, M. Thomson, 2010. Health and Climate - Needs. Procedia Environmental Sciences. 1: 27-36.
19. Thomson M.C., S.J. Connor, S.E. Zebiak, M. Jancloes, A. Mihretie, 2011. Africa needs climate data to fight disease.Nature . 440: 471.
The study is partially funded by a grant/cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and by a grant from Google.org.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 13 Partnering for health early warning lin t i /Ray W nk systems a d b orl e W
By David P. Rogers* h © T
Health and well-being are the human risks, ensuring access to clean water long-range forecasting and early face of climate change. The potential and improving food security, thus detection provide concepts, indicators for climate change to affect human helping to achieve the United Nations and planning to monitor malaria health has motivated much of the past Millennium Development Goals (2). situations that may escalate towards decade’s research into the relation- possible epidemics. Monitoring ship between disease and climate. Success depends on the interaction of climatic indicators, population Between one quarter and one third of of diverse communities which are not vulnerability factors and operational the global burden of disease can now natural partners. It also requires new and environmental factors help be attributed to environmental risk skills that enable specialists in health, detect when conditions suitable for factors, according to the World Health agriculture, water resources, disaster an epidemic have already appeared Organization (1). Because diseases management, weather and climate at a given time and place. Such early are sensitive to weather and climate to work together. Their collaboration warning systems have the potential conditions, most of the health effects in developing systems for early to help the health community foresee we can expect due to climate change detection or warning of health risks potential epidemics weeks to months are already occurring. is a key to mitigating the effects of in advance. The aim is to identify diseases. the beginning of an epidemic by Public health strategies are focusing measuring changes in the incidence on increasing resilience to weather National bodies can play an important of malaria cases. At least eight African and climate-sensitive illnesses, role in helping to ensure that the countries are developing malaria which will improve our capacity to essential role of climate is taken early warning systems. At present, cope with the health effects of the into account in the decision-making however, long-range forecasting present and future climate. Whether systems of health practitioners. How for malaria remains predominately the climate reduces crop yields or can meteorological services work research-based (9). increases extreme weather events, the most effectively with public health consequences are ultimately manifest services to improve health early Malaria Outlook Forums in Africa are in health impacts. warning systems? While famine a good example of a user community early warning systems have a track (in this case health professionals) that Achieving the universal aspiration of record, in comparison, health sector is driving a process in which climate good health requires clean water and early warning systems are relatively information is a key component. air, food, shelter, sanitation, safety untried (5). These forums were set up following and freedom from disease. Access climate information received in to medicines and quality health WMO Regional Climate Outlook care is vital. Health also requires Early warning for Forums. The aim has been to create broad investment in social and an operational early warning system environmental measures that help malaria in Africa for malaria, using both health and societies adapt to climate change. This climate information. Malaria Outlook will contribute to reducing disaster The most advanced health early Forums have been held since 2004 warning systems are for malaria in Southern Africa and since 2007 in * President, Health and Climate Foundation, (6,7,8). Guidelines developed in 2001 East Africa and the Greater Horn of USA by WHO to establish and implement Africa (10). Meteorological and health
14 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 have a positive influence on the help in the early disease detection (2). operational decision-making process Spain, through the Agencia Estatal de (15,16). Meteorología (AEMET) is supporting collaboration in West Africa between A framework to improve communi- meteorological and health services cation and planning between health through a project called HEALTHMET. ministries and meteorological services It also contributes to the Meningitis is being developed in Africa. Pioneered Environmental Risk Information in Ethiopia by its Ministry of Health and Technologies programme, known the National Meteorological Services by its acronym MERIT. It is one of Agency, a Climate and Health Working the first developed jointly between Group is becoming a focal point for the health and climate communi- climate and health issues. The goal ties (led by WHO, WMO and their experts from national agencies jointly is to create a climate-informed health partners) to develop decision tools develop malaria detection and response sector and beneficiary communities to support health operations in the products best suited to various sectors, that routinely request and use appro- African meningitis belt (2). locations and time scales. priate climate information to improve the effectiveness of health interven- tions (17). The group helps formulate Communicating Early warning institutional data sharing systems among the sectors and other rele- warnings effectively systems for heat vant institutions; fosters research on climate and health; organizes work- Communities must be aware of The past decade has also seen shops; identifies gaps and bottlenecks weather and climate-sensitive health the development of heat-health which constrain the routine use of risks if they are to protect themselves. warning systems, operating in at climate information by the health Information must reach vulnerable least 16 countries around the world. sector, and identifies and pursues the populations, using messages that Good communication between means to overcome these problems; encourage people to act. Thus health meteorological services, emergency and helps build the capacity of national forecasting and early detection must response communities and health and local community-based organiza- be linked to specific actions to reduce agencies has been critical to success tions to widen and strengthen their risk that are timely, specific and take (8). Developing these relationships services. into account the social and cultural is not always easy, but the results factors that make people more or are effective. The system can alert Health ministries and meteorological less receptive to information. medical communities and care services in Madagascar, Kenya and facilities (such as nursing homes) West Africa are furthering this Météo-France, for example, has to prepare for a rise in patients with development. Madagascar, for pioneered early warning systems symptoms of heat stress. example, has created a Climate and for meteorological hazards using Health Working Group through an a vigilance system charting the Heat-health forecasts can also be used agreement between the Ministry severity of hazards with colour codes to alert people to watch out for family of Health and Family Planning and for each of its 95 French departments. and community members, especially its National Meteorological and After the 2003 extreme heatwave those that are socially isolated; remind Hydrological Service to reduce the that resulted in many thousands of patients to take prescribed medications burden of climate-sensitive diseases, extra deaths during a 16-day period on time; ensure that those at risk have focusing on malaria, plague and in Europe, the French Institute for access to health care facilities; and Rift Valley fever. The health sector Public Health Surveillance, in close avoid high temperatures, humidity and in Madagascar can use climate cooperation with Météo-France, poor air quality (2,11,12,13,14). information in warning systems set up a heat-health watch warning for epidemics. Seasonal forecasts system (13). The system aims to warn of temperature and precipitation, public authorities and the general Supporting stronger indicators of probable occurrence public three days before a heatwave of malaria, can trigger greater may occur, so that a national plan working relationships surveillance of epidemics. can go into operation, including use of television and radio spots, special In efforts to improve warning systems, Real-time observations of temper- assistance to people at risk (many the public health sector increasingly ature and precipitation can be used of whom are already registered recognizes that collaborative systems to launch selective interventions and at their townhalls) and facilities to
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 15 How weather and climate affect health
Climate and weather extremes can lead to physical injury, food insecurity, social disruption, population displacement and the spread of communicable diseases (3).
High temperatures, for example, trigger heatwaves and exacerbate poor air quality, which contribute to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease (2). High temperatures also increase aeroallergens that trigger asthma. Changing temperature patterns alter animal and insect habitats, changing the risks of diseases and increasing the need for surveillance and early detection to reduce epidemic risks (4).
Floods increase the likelihood of bacterial contamination of water and alter the habitats of rodents. This increases the risk of diseases such as cholera and leptospirosis. It also improves breeding conditions for insects responsible for the transmission of dengue, malaria and other diseases.
Urban areas pose particular risks. Diseases can spread rapidly in urban areas, and the built environment can reinforce high temperatures and poor air quality.
The World Health Organization identifies several major climate-sensitive communicable diseases including malaria, meningitis, cholera and dengue, and acknowledges that many non-communicable coronary and respiratory diseases are also climate-sensitive. Many other largely neglected diseases are also sensitive to climate and weather.
Epidemic potential of some climate-sensitive common communicable diseases
Temporal Disease Transmission Distribution Climate–epidemic link climate sensitivity
Influenza Air-borne Worldwide Decreases in temperature (winter) associated with ++ epidemics. A range of human-related factors are more significant. Diarrhoeal Food- and water-borne Worldwide Increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall associated ++ diseases with epidemics. Sanitation and human behaviour are probably more important. Cholera Food- and water-borne Africa, Asia, Russian Increases in sea and air temperatures as well as El Niño +++++ Federation South events associated with epidemics. Sanitation and human America behaviour are also important. Malaria The bite of female Endemic in > 100 Changes in temperature and rainfall associated with +++++ Anopheles mosquitoes countries in the tropics, epidemics. Many other locally relevant factors including subtropics and some vector characteristics, immunity, population movements, temperate areas drug resistance, environmental changes, etc. Meningococcal Air-borne Worldwide Increases in temperature and decreases in humidity +++ meningitis associated with epidemics. Lymphatic The bite of female Culex, Africa, India, South Temperature and rainfall determine the geographical ++ filariasis Anopheles, Aedes and America, South Asia distribution of vectors and disease. Mansonia mosquitoes and Pacific Islands Leishmaniasis The bite of female Africa, central Asia, Increases in temperature and rainfall associated with +++ phlebotomine sand flies Europe, India, South epidemics. America African The bite of male and Sub- Saharan Africa Changes in temperature and rainfall may be linked to ++ trypanosomiasis female tsetse flies,Glos - epidemics. Cattle density and vegetation patterns also are sina spp. relevant factors. Dengue The bite of female Aedes Africa, Europe, South High temperature, humidity and rainfall associated with +++ mosquitoes America, south-east epidemics in some areas. Non-climatic factors also have an Asia, western Pacific important impact. Japanese The bite of female Culex South-east Asia High temperature and heavy rains associated with epidemics. +++ encephalitis and Aedes mosquitoes Reservoir animal factors are also important.
16 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Temporal Disease Transmission Distribution Climate–epidemic link climate sensitivity
St Louis The bite of female Culex North and South High temperature and heavy rain associated with epidemic. +++ encephalitis and Aedes mosquitoes America Reservoir animal factors are also important. Rift Valley fever The bite of female Sub- Saharan Africa Heavy rains associated with onset of epidemic. Cold weather +++ culicine mosquitoes associated with end of epidemic. Reservoir animal factors are also important. West Nile virus The bite of female Africa, central Asia, High temperatures and heavy precipitation associated with ++ culicine mosquitoes south-west Asia, onset of epidemic. Non-climatic factors may have more Europe important impact. Ross River virus The bite of female Australia and Pacific High temperature and heavy precipitation associated with +++ culicine mosquitoes islands onset of epidemic. Host immune factors and reservoir animals are also important factors. Murray Valley The bite of female Culex Australia Heavy rains and below average atmospheric pressure +++ fever mosquitoes associated with epidemics. Yellow fever The bite of female Africa, South and High temperature and heavy rain associated with epidemic. ++ Aedes and Haemagogus central America Intrinsic population factors are also important. mosquitoes Adapted from Kuhn, K., D. Campbell-Lendrum, A. Haines and J. Cox . Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics, World Health Organization, 2005.
access clinical information on recent accuracy and advance notice to take stress, air pollution, wildfires, floods, morbidity or mortality (2). action to prevent or reduce health droughts and storms. It is reaching out effects. This development builds on to the health community to help them The Canadian Meteorological numerical forecasting advances that with decision-making tools for options Service produces a daily air quality incorporate chemical and weather to adapt to and mitigate changes in forecast with an Air Quality Index. forecasts. Within a decade, reliable health risks over the next decades (2). Air Quality Advisories are issued air quality forecast guidance beyond when the air pollution levels exceed two days should be available for an national standards. They are issued area of 2.5 km. Multi-hazard in partnership with provincial and municipal environment and health The United Kingdom has perhaps warning in China authorities, and contain advice gone the farthest. It has developed on actions to protect health and a Health Forecasting Service within Using systems for multiple purposes the environment. A cornerstone is the Met Office, in collaboration with can be cost-effective. Multi-hazard timely health messages encouraging the National Health Service. The early warning systems can forecast Canadians to avoid exposure to new service delivers tailored health a variety of natural hazards and unhealthy air and to take advantage forecasts to health care providers and health conditions such as chronic of immediate access to prescription individuals with conditions such as obstructive pulmonary disease, medication. These messages also chronic obstructive pulmonary disease asthma, cardiovascular disease and motivate longer-term actions to and seasonal affective disorder. The exposure to infectious diseases. It improve air quality in Canadian service predicts periods of increased also facilitates coordination between communities. Similar activities are risk and targets the individual at relevant government agencies. taking place across the border in the the right time to elicit a response. Flood warnings, for example, draw USA, as well as in Europe. For seasonal affective disorder, for upon government experts dealing example, simple measures such as with emergency rescue, health and In the USA, most information gentle exercise, keeping rooms at veterinary issues and hazardous presented by AIRNow, publisher of the the right temperature and the use of materials. Air Quality Index and other air quality light boxes improve health greatly. guides, is based on observations. The There are several applications of these The China Meteorological Admini US National Weather Service and the techniques and enthusiasm among the stration has such a model in the Environmental Protection Agency clinical community is growing. Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning have also developed an Air Quality System, developed jointly with WMO Forecast System to predict ozone The UK Met Office Hadley Centre is and the Shanghai People’s Municipal levels as guidance to state and local air conducting research to understand Government. The new Shanghai quality forecasters (18). The aim is to the impact that climate change is likely Health-Meteorology Forecasting provide ozone, particulate matter and to have on human health worldwide, Service is designed to be an integral other pollutant forecasts with enough including changing risks of heat part of the warning platform.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 17 Health and climate, the way forward
There has been much progress over the past decade in understanding the relationship between weather and climate and disease, which can serve as a basis for recommendations for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. • Work jointly with health professionals. Health forecasting is best as a joint venture of the health service and meteorological service (19). • Focus on multi-hazard systems. Weather and climate forecasting has advanced and early warning systems have focused on multiple hazards. This approach is critical to cost-effective health forecasting and early detection since it leverages the extensive investment of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the core infrastructure of the warning system. It also facilitates communication and coordination among the many agencies that can be involved in climate and health issues, such as those dealing with agricul- ture, water resources, and emergency management, for example. Meteorologists have an important role in bringing these pieces together to create more timely and integrated warning systems that reflect the multiple risks that affect human health and well-being.
References
1. Protecting Health from Climate Change - World Health Day 2008. World Health Organization, Geneva, 34pp, 2008.
2. Rogers, D.P., M.A. Shapiro, G. Brunet, J-C. Cohen, S.J. Connor, A.A. Diallo, W. Elliott, K. Haidong, S. Hales, D. Hemming, I. Jeanne, M. Lafaye, Z. Mumba, N. Raholijao, F. Rakotomanana, H. Teka, J. Trtanj, and P.-Y. Whung, Health and Climate – Opportunities. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 1, 37–54, 2010.
3. Protecting health in Europe from climate change (B. Menne, F. Apfel, S. Kovats and F. Racioppi, eds), WHO, Geneva, 2008.
4. Portier, C. J., K.T. Tart, S.R. Carter, C.H. Dilworth, A.E. Grambsch, J. Golke, J. Hess, S.N. Howard, G. Luber, J.T. Lutz, N. Prudent, M. Radtke, J.P. Rosenthal, T. Rowles, P.A. Sandifer, J. Scheraga, P. Schramm, D. Strickman, J. M. Trtanj, and P.-Y. Whung, Human Health Perspective on Climate Change. A report outlining the research needs on the human health effects of climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 70pp, 2010.
5. Davies, S., M. Buchanan-Smith, R. Lambert, Early warning in the Sahel and Horn of Africa: The state of the art. A review of the liter- ature. Volume One. Brighton, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, 1991.
6. Connor, S.J., M.C. Thomson and D.H. Molyneux, Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: New perspectives on an old problem. In: The Malaria Challenge after one hundred years of malariology. Parassitologia,41(1999) 439–448. 7. Malaria early warning systems: Concepts, indicators and partners. A framework for field research in Africa. Geneva, WHO (WHO/CDS/RBM/2001.32), 2001.
8. Thomson, M.C. and S.J. Connor, The development of malaria early warning systems for Africa. Trends in Parasitology, 17 (2001) 438–445. 9. The World Malaria Report. WHO, Geneva, 2005.
10. DaSilva, J., B. Garanganga, V. Teveredzi, S.M. Marx, S.J. Mason and S.J. Connor, Improving epidemic malaria planning, prepared- ness and response in Southern Africa. Malaria Journal. 3 (2004) 37.
11. Fouillet A., G. Rey, E. Jougla, D. Hémon, Estimation de la surmortalité observée et attendue au cours de la vague de chaleur du mois de juillet 2006. Rapport à l’InVS. 2006.
12. Josseran, L., N. Caillère, D. Brun-Ney, J. Rottner, L. Filleul, G. Brucker and P. Astagneau, Syndromic surveillance and heat wave morbidity: A pilot study based on emergency departments in France. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. 9 (2009) 14.
13. Pascal, M., K. Laaidi, M. Ledrans, E. Baffert, C. Caserio-Schönemann, A. Le Tertre, J. Manach, S. Medina, J. Rudant and P. Empereur- Bissonnet, France’s heat health watch warning system. International Journal of Biometeorology 50 (2006) 144–153.
14. Improving public health responses to extreme weather/heat waves – EuroHEAT (B. Menne and F. Mathies, eds) Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe. 2009.
15. Using Climate to Predict Disease Outbreaks: a Review (K. Kuhn, D. Campbell-Lendrum, A. Haines and J. Cox). WHO, Geneva, 2004.
16. Omumbo, J.A., B. Lyon, S. M. Waweru, S. J. Connor, and M. C. Thomson, Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revis- iting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate. Malaria Journal 2011 10:12.
17. Ghebreyesus, T.A., Z. Tadese, D. Jima, E. Bekele, A. Mihretie, Y.Y. Yihdego, T. Dinku, S.J. Connor and D.P. Rogers, Public health services and public weather services: Increasing the usefulness of climate information in the health sector. WMO Bulletin. 57 (2008) 256–261. 18. Air Quality Index: A guide to air quality and your health. Washington, USEPA Air and Radiation, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-454/K-03-002. 2003.
19 Omumbo, J., B. Plazer, A. Girma, and S.J. Connor, 2011: Climate and Health in Africa. 10 Years On Workshop. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. IRI Technical Report 11-01, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, 112pp.
18 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Survey of financial a
firms outlines climate rreir va Pa Ariel da Sil information needs / u .h c .sx by the UNEP Finance Initiative* www ©
Banks, investors and insurers are were 65 responses from insurers and To manage climatic risks affecting looking for more climate information reinsurers (11), lenders (35) and asset their business portfolios, financial and services to manage increasing managers (19). institutions need predictions, risks from heatwaves, floods, analyses and interpretation. Climate landslides, drought, rising seas and The survey (available at http://www. information needs to be appropriate other extreme events related to a unepfi.org/fileadmin/documents/ to the duration of contracts, the changing climate. advancing_adaptation.pdf) was regions where customers hold assets launched as a contribution to the or undertake operations, and the Climate expertise will be a Global Framework for Climate hazards that are likely to affect the competitiveness factor in the years Services, following the World Climate operations of borrowers, investors ahead, and the financial sector Conference-3. and the insured. needs better climate information, noted a study by the United Nations The key challenge for insurers Environmental Programme (UNEP) Preparing economies and reinsurers lies in identifying, Finance Initiative and the Sustainable quantifying and pricing such risks in Business Institute, a German research for climate challenges a dynamic environment. Changing centre. Financial service providers patterns of weather hazards also create are increasingly affected by extreme When asked about how to adapt to a new demands for risk transfer and can weather events, and expect these changing climate, many people think become a business opportunity for kinds of risks to increase in future. of large-scale infrastructure projects new insurance markets and products. such as dams and water systems. The study was based on a survey Equally important are the millions of A different situation holds for lenders of 60 major firms in the financial dispersed business decisions taken and asset managers. They are less sector such as Banco Santander, every day that should start to take familiar with climate change, because Munich Reinsurance, Deutsche into account climate change factors the effects have not yet systematically Bank, Citigroup and Mitsubishi and impacts. turned into financially relevant UFJ. The survey covered climate information needs for lenders, Banks, investors and insurers stand asset managers and insurers, in all out in the commercial landscape for world regions, including developing their ability to influence business and developed countries. As some decisions and economic trends. The institutions with multiple business financial sector engages daily with lines completed more than one of clients and investors of all types, the three sections of the survey, there sizes and sectors, shaping current and future production processes * This article is adapted by the WMO Bulletin and services. Given this influential from the survey report. For more information, role, the financial services sector is a contact Paul Clements-Hunt, Head, UNEP powerful conduit towards economic Finance Initiative (Paul.Clements-Hunt@ unep.org), or Remco Fischer, Programme systems that are better prepared for Officer ([email protected]). climate change challenges.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 19 Main findings
• The majority expects that climate change risks will increase and be more relevant in the future for the financial sector. • The most pressing need is “advice on reliability of predictions” (around 80% of participants). • The majority rated historical weather data nearly as high in importance as climate predictions. • Overall, less than half of the respondents feel they are sufficiently well-informed. Just one-third feels “sufficiently informed” on climate change. Even for historical weather data, less than half (43%) feel adequately informed. • Local and regional climate change predictions for a time horizon of 10 to 30 years are not available or reli- able enough for many purposes of the financial sector; available information is not in a user-friendly state. • An immense information gap exists for continents with a high number of developing countries, but demand for better climate information applies to all regions. • Climate-impact information should focus on client sectors. For every sector there is a lack of information. • Respondents favour a wide range of information in terms of content and media. • There is no unanimity (and in some cases no opinions) about the quality, timeliness, and value-for-money of current data provision. This reflects the wide range of different information needs about the impact of climate change, but also the range of familiarity with these issues. • Participants are willing to cooperate with data providers, research institutes, and other partners to further develop information services.
consequences. Only just over one accumulation risks to increase (9); developing new insurance products, quarter of lenders surveyed claim expect risks to change (8), and anticipate and all plan to do so in future. to “systematically always” integrate these changes will accelerate in direct effects of climate change in future (9). their operations now. Yet 80% of Lenders and asset respondents expect that direct risks Already, insurers have recorded a managers: Growing – accumulation of risks, changing risk demand for additional risk absorption patterns, and increasing credit losses capacity and expect that this demand awareness caused by physical impacts – will gain will continue. A majority is amending importance in the future. existing insurance products and all Lenders and asset managers expect to do so in future. Most are also are starting to see the impact of Insurers: new products, new markets 200
180 Insurers are recording variations 160 that are quite different from historical Overall losses (in 2009 values) experience and expect these changes 140 Insured losses (in 2009 values) will increase in future. They especially 120 see challenges due to shifting climate Trend overall losses patterns that give rise to extreme 100
USD billion Trend insured losses weather events that vary in frequency, 80 intensity, and regional occurrence. The 60 changes are already leading to shifts in insurance products and markets. 40
20 The survey shows that 11 insurers from eight countries and three continents 0 recorded an increase in weather-related 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 damages (10), and expect these to Weather-related losses for natural disasters, 1950–2009. Insurers are recording increase (11); reported an accumulation steadily rising losses due to weather-related extreme events. They expect these losses of such risks (8), and expect to continue to rise. Source: Munich Re 2009, in Advancing adaptation through climate information services, UNEP, 2011.
20 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 climate change risks in their operations. Climate risk assessment, often complex and uncertain, 24% Yes, systematically always is not their traditional area of competence. Lenders often rely upon 40% Yes, but only insurers to accept these risks on their in exceptional cases behalf. 24% No, but we plan to do so in the future A minority of the 35 lenders surveyed feel that “already today” their credit transactions are affected by an 12% No, currently not accumulation of risks; changing risk patterns; and increased credit losses due to direct, physical effects of Do lenders currently treat climate change as a risk factor? Lenders are shifting their climate change. Only 25% of lenders practices to include climate change as a risk factor. surveyed systematically integrate Source: Advancing adaptation through climate information services, UNEP, 2011. climate change into due diligence and risk management procedures. just a small element within the Europe, 56% said that they needed Yet 80% feel that credit transactions universe of corporate sustainability more information. will be affected by these risks in the performance indicators. future, and more than two-thirds The report notes that these results agree that risk assessment practices match a 2010 study, How well should change now. A need for past and future prepared is the UK for Climate change? Conducted by the UK Asset managers rely on aggregated climate information Government’s Committee on information or self-reporting by Climate Change. It notes that “many companies. Most asset managers More historical weather data and businesses do not think they have surveyed have integrated climate climate change predictions are access to adequate weather data and change effects in portfolio needed, survey participants noted. climate projections, preventing them management, and seven of 19 are In Africa, 89% of financial groups from assessing risks from current doing this systematically. However, felt inadequately informed about and future climate.” climate change aspects are usually regional climate risks. Yet even in Which sectors need
Agriculture climate information most?
Power Agriculture and the energy sector Buildings (reflected in several categories in Infrastucture this survey) stand out as the sectors
Renewables that need information the most. They ranked sectors in the following order Oil & gas of importance. Utilities 1. Agriculture
Mining 2. Power 3. Buildings Tourism 4. Infrastructure Automobile 5. Renewables
Chemicals 6. Oil and gas 7. Utilities Financial Very important 8. Mining Information gap Healthcare 9. Tourism 10. Automobile 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 11. Chemicals Climate information needs by sector. Respondents ranked sectoral information needs 12. Financial and gaps very differently. Source: Advancing adaptation through climate information services, UNEP, 2011. 13. Healthcare
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 21 Where are the biggest sectoral information gaps?
Here, the views of financial institutions on the biggest information gaps show quite a different ranking. 1. Chemicals 2. Healthcare 3. Tourism 4. Mining y ur
5. Utilities zag e / 6. Infrastructure u .h 7. Financial c .sx 8. Power
9. Agriculture © www 10. Oil and gas The financial sector considers the climate impact on the forestry sector to be a research 11. Automobiles priority. 12. Renewables 13. Buildings • Project databases (such as renew- • Training (seminars and able energy projects) conferences); • Databases on weather/extreme • Online services (such as Cooperation to events Frequently Asked Questions); improve climate • Loss and catastrophe models • Ad hoc statements and expert • Loss databases opinions; information services • Periodic reports on the state of Survey participants also expressed the art in climate science. There is an overwhelming interest to preferences about the format for collaborate with weather and climate improved climate information. In data and information providers, descending order, their preferences Towards a global research institutes and other partners are: architecture for climate to develop information services and • Periodic reports for certain formats. The survey showed the sectors and companies; information and services following preferences for information, • Best practice cases that tackle in descending order: risks and opportunities for The study shows the need for more • Sectoral analyses financial services; precise knowledge of climate change • Regional scenarios • Periodic reports by region; impacts, especially regionally, for a 10-30 year time frame. It shows the need to provide public platforms that explain remaining uncertainties Climate research recommendations and advise on the reliability of predictions. There is also a need Interviews were conducted with German survey participants to determine for general access to standardized their priorities for applied climate research. They recommended: weather observation data. • Analyze dynamics of convective extreme weather events (such as hail and heavy rainfall) and their impact on loss potential; This study provides insights that go • Investigate the climate impact in agriculture and forestry (multi- beyond the boundary of the financial peril insurance), the water sector, land use planning and the built sector. The debate continues on environment; how to design, organize and finance • Assess extreme events with a “return period” greater than worldwide information architecture 1 000 years; and related services – drawing on • Conduct research on loss prevention and adaptation (such as land public and private actors, bottom use planning for the built environment, or adaptation needs of up from national and regional drainage systems). levels and top down from a global perspective.
22 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Images of change A photographer documents a warming world
by Gary Braasch
A huge “supercell” thunderstorm dumps heavy rain San Pedro River valley, Arizona, USA in 2004.
© Gary Braasch - All photos in this article. for use only in WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Images of change, of scientists at work, of people already on the edge of climate change – these give needed background to weather news and climatology research. They can provoke public discussion and political decision-making. Excellent, well-planned and science-driven photography is an essential tool for climate and weather services worldwide.
Pictures are not science; they can, however, provide direct evidence that global warming is happening now, all over the world. It is important to document this decisive, overarching event of the twenty-first century – one with no equal in the previous centuries of human civilization. This is truly a global change. Fortunately, there is a great deal we can do, and many of us have already begun.
Use of coal is a prime source of pollution. Images capture people’s interest and graphically show the locations of climate change effects, making them excellent tools – and models of communication – for meteorologists and weather services.
The National Environmental Education Association’s Earth Gauge programme (http://www.earthgauge.net) is an Linking photographers example of a free information service to help weathercasters communicate links between weather, climate and and forecasters environment. Through photographic collaboration, people in Miami, say, better understand that they are in the same Gary Braasch, a conservation photographer and photojournal- situation as people in Bangladesh, the ist, has documented environmental issues from the eruption Netherlands, Alaska and Tuvalu who are of Mount St. Helens and the ancient forests of the West coast already being displaced by sea level rise. of North America to global climate change. His photographic assignments have appeared in National Geographic, Scientific My work as a journalist and environmental American, Life and other major magazines. He established photographer brought me to the subject World View of Global Warming, a unique documentation of 11 years ago, when I gained my first climate change and science. independent funding from a small environmental foundation for World View Mr. Braasch is the 2006 recipient of the Ansel Adams Award of Global Warming. This science-based for Conservation Photography by the Sierra Club and a photojournalistic project about climate founding Fellow of the International League of Conservation change is witness to the science, evidence Photography. His book Earth Under Fire: How Global Warming in words and pictures of significant change is Changing the World (University of California Press) was to people and landscapes, and a chronicle updated in paperback and e-book form in 2009. His book for of solutions being undertaken. middle school children and teachers, How We Know What We Know About Our Changing Climate (Dawn Publication The aim is to educate, inspire and influence 2008) has won 15 major awards for children’s and educational the public, policy makers and young science writing. Mr. Braasch holds an MS in Journalism from people about the science of climate change Northwestern University. and its full meaning. The photos report what scientists are seeing and document locations they found were already changing under the influence of global warming. I met many people who were living at risk from impacts of climate change, and images of them became important in the work. The many technological and community solutions to ever-increasing carbon emissions also became a feature, because we must be able to visualize the future that is upon us.
There is great scope for scientific agencies to work with photographers across the globe to communicate science. In this case, the reporting has spanned areas from the Arctic to the Antarctic, from beneath sea level to above 5 000 metres (15 000 feet) in the Andes, and 25 countries on all continents. The photos have been displayed in exhibitions in the USA at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington DC, at the Field Museum in Chicago and Minnesota Science Museum and at the Environmental Protection Agency, and featured by the United Nations in calendars and postage stamps. Perhaps most importantly, thousands of teachers and professors worldwide have used them, based on two books and the Website www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 25 The 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, with burning oil and methane and crude oil streaming from the leak, is a prime example of risks we take with fossil fuel use.
We are changing the climate The first challenge is to realize the scientific message: We are changing the climate, and more rapidly than at any time in recent Earth prehistory. This is a powerful truth, considering climate’s controlling role in creating the habitat of every living thing and its influence over the course of human events.
Lake Mead’s water level in October 2010 was the lowest since the dam was built in the 1930s. Located on the Colorado River between Nevada and Arizona, USA, the lake is losing water rapidly as part of a long-term drought in the area. Kids play on the very ice-free Arctic shore of Barrow, Alaska, USA in 2002. Barrow is one of the northernmost towns of more than 2 000 residents in the world. The summer limit of pack ice is melting back to reveal more and more open water along the coasts. The Arctic ice cover remaining at the end of summer reached a record low in 2007, and the long-sought Northwest Passage was ice-free for the first time. Ice scientists said it is very possible that the Arctic Ocean would have mostly ice-free in summers within a few decades, years earlier than previous estimates.
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The Earth is becoming a different planet Right now polar and mountain landscapes are under fire from warming climate regimes. Retreating ice exposes more land; permafrost thaws; land slides and rises. Entire ecosystems are reacting. Polar cultures of the North face dislocation and loss of identity while an open Arctic Ocean shifts geopolitics. Inhabitants of alpine regions will have to adapt tradition, agri- culture, infrastructure and recreation. Glacier-fed rivers will change, as will all who live in these watersheds. The Earth is becoming a different planet as it rapidly leaves the Ice Age.
Polar bear invades climate change study on Cooper Island, Alaska, USA. This Arctic native (Ursus maritimus) is at high risk of extinction. Zoologists and climatologists believe that the projected decreases in polar sea ice due to global warming will slash the number of polar bears by two thirds by mid-century. The University of Vienna examines plants on Mt Schrankogel, Austria at 3 000 meters. Alpine plants and meadow growth are found at higher alti- tudes due to global warming.
Connecting climate changes to local places of value can make the science real. Climate change affects landscapes that people treasure and need for support. The list of famed parks and World Heritage Sites under great pressure from climate change reads like an ecotourist’s dream itinerary: the Everglades and West Bengal’s Sundarban mangrove forest; the Great Barrier Reef and Florida Keys; Monteverde Cloud Forest and the Daintree rainforest of northern Queensland; Glacier National Park and Mt. Kilimanjaro; Nepal’s Sagarmatha National Park, the Farallon Islands, Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and the Antarctic Peninsula, to name just a few.
Athabasca Glacier, Canada, in 1917 and 2005. Shishmaref, Alaska is eroding into the Bering Sea due to climate change.
The 400 000 natives of the North are expe- riencing the thaw in all facets of their lives. As documented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, even though their ancestors lived here at least 20 000 years ago and over time withstood many climate changes, the current warming is so rapid it strains human resilience. The very ground and waters these people live on and hunt over no longer conform to their ancient knowl- edge of seasons and weather. Inuit leader Sheila Watt-Cloutier of Nunavut, Canada, testified to the US Congress that climate change “is a matter of livelihood, food, and individual and cultural survival. It is a human issue. The Arctic is not a wilderness or a frontier. It is our home and homeland.”
Rainforests such as Tortuguero National Park in Costa Rica are at risk from climate change. The TREES Project in Costa Rica has tracked annual growth and survival of 3 000 trees representing nine tree species for 23 years. It has found a highly significant negative correlation between canopy tree growth and night-time temperatures, suggesting that global warming speeds up the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation through negative effects on tropical tree carbon balance. Kids hang out on their “kaupapa,” the outdoor sleeping platform favoured by Tuvaluan families, as very high tides inundate their neigh- bourhood in February 2005. This low-lying island nation 1 000 km north of Fiji is threat- ened by rising sea levels.
Witnesses of change
Bangladeshis on an eroding village south of Dhaka are only a meter away from inundation by the next storm or flood. A one-meter rise in sea level will displace 20 million people and flood 10 per cent of Bangladesh.
Ice shelves are breaking up and land-based glaciers are receding as the Antarctic Peninsula experiences rapidly rising temperatures. This ice cave is a remnant of Marr Ice Piedmont, Anvers Island, Antarctica.
Many people are at risk from climate change. Not only people on islands and coasts, but people who benefit from national parks and reserves, and managed lands like pastures and forests, which may deteriorate as climate shifts. Climate change can make the pressures of overpopulation and land abuse worse. We need to protect biodiversity and whole ecosystems for their own sake, but also to ensure continuation of their support services to us, like fresh water, soil creation, food and materials. We need strong natural systems to help us survive climate change.
The Chicago heatwave of 1995 killed more than 700 people. This foreshadowed the great European heatwave of 2003, when over 30 000 deaths occurred, the northern hemisphere heatwave of 2006, and the major heatwave in the Russian Federation in 2010. Scientists project that global warming effects will include more such heatwaves. © Gary Braasch - All photos in this article. for use only in WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 In the Netherlands, the Dutch are active in creating new energy sources such as these wind turbines, as well climate change adaptation schemes like floating homes and restored wetlands to absorb floodwaters.
New heroes New controls on greenhouse gas emissions will have to be made across the entire spectrum of energy production and use. It is nothing short of a transformation for a world that still enjoys abundant energy, but it will be energy that comes from different sources. The facts of energy and climate tell us that we are going to need some combination of all kinds of clean energy.
Heroes of our new world will emerge based on their leadership and contribution to keeping the Earth from getting too hot. They will ignore the usual definitions about which nation is “developed” and which is “developing” and look only to reduce greenhouse emissions and to help those who require protection from the growing effects of climate disruption.
They will realize that wealthy, heavily polluting nations are just as much at risk, proportionally, as are impoverished coun- tries with lower emissions and little financial reserve. The new leaders will know that protecting income, profits, and market share by avoiding action on climate sets them up for even more expensive disasters. They will be willing to clearly state the problem and challenge to their constituents and audiences, accept the tremendous challenge of this transformation, and be outspoken about the great improvement in lives and health and safety which climate change solutions will bring to millions.
Solar photovoltaic cells on a civic center in San Francisco, California, USA. This state, larger economically than all but eight nations, is a leader among US states to limit emissions and install wind and solar energy.
© Gary Braasch - All photos in this article. for use only in WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Financial markets Financial markets drive demand
drive demand for d r a ic
for climate models as P om h / T climate models u .h
by Rowan Douglas* c .sx by Rowan Douglas* © www
Operational climate forecasting is remain: pooling risk so that the losses to supporting these communities. emerging as the latest frontier in of the few are shared by the many. Insurance is the ultimate community climate services for the financial product; reinsurance is the ultimate sector. global community product. Hazards insurance: A new supply chain: a global product The rise of catastrophe scientists, financial The non-life insurance industry risk modelling markets, regulators collects approximately two trillion US dollars in premiums per year Until the late 1980s, insurance Enabled by new technology and from people around the world. About and reinsurance companies used supported by international legislation, one third of these premiums (and historical claims records, coupled a new supply chain linking climate the single largest element) is used with the experience and instinct of science, insurance markets and to insure property and other assets underwriters to set premium rates for financial regulation has emerged. against natural hazards. all lines of insurance. Many countries Around it, a new fertile scientific had rates fixed by tariffs. A run of community breaks down walls Insurance companies use about natural and man-made losses in the between public and private; pure and US$ 200 billion per year of this mid-1980s and early 1990s – including applied; science and industry. This income to buy their own insurance, Hurricane Juan (1985), Hurricane intellectual and technical fusion offers called reinsurance. Catastrophes is Hugo (1989), European Windstorm opportunities as we seek to develop the largest segment of the global Daria (1990) and Hurricane Andrew greater resilience to climate change reinsurance market. Reinsurance (1992) – helped tear this system apart. and extreme events. protects insurers against extreme With losses far in excess of previous losses related to frequency, severity experience, many insurance and The grand challenge that is and duration of natural hazards. In reinsurance companies failed. Risk confronting this new community broad terms, 10% of the insurance is one of sustainability. How does premiums we pay for our homes, society, at local and global scales, cars and businesses passes into a
achieve resilience and share the global pool called the reinsurance y
costs of extreme events so that industry. mpe l E y
lives and communities can be rebuilt er
after losses and disasters? Whether Around 90% of the funds are paid / Ch u .h one chooses public mechanisms out in claims. (The remaining 10% c (taxation), private ones (insurance) covers administration and profit.) .sx
or hybrids of both, the fundamentals When there is a major bushfire in www © Australia, floods in central Europe, About one third of insurance premiums is a typhoon in South-East Asia or used to insure property and other assets * Chief Executive Officer, Global Analytics, hailstorms in the US Midwest, all from natural hazards such as Hurricane Willis Re and Chairman, Willis Research Network of us who buy insurance contribute Ike, which damaged the home above.
34 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 The databases outline the resilience or vulnerability of a structure or other asset to the factor causing the damage.
Weather data reanalysis and asset databases are critical to the calibration of the catastrophe models. The vulnerability component provides the means to estimate damage for varying hazard intensity (varying gust speed, water depth). Importantly for the insurance industry, it also estimates the AA potential financial loss caused, using ©NO The underestimates of losses from Hurricane Katrina contributed to a revolution in both engineering and statistical sources. modelling that brought more public science to financial markets. By combining data in a mathematical and statistical framework, one can estimate the probability of annual loss had increased and a new approach to be constructed which represent the exceedence across a range of annual to underwriting was required. potential range of events and their return periods. These outputs can be financial impact. Models are based used to help decision-makers quantify This period of market stress coincided on core components that reflect the loss potential. with technical innovations, not essential elements of risk – the hazard, least the PC spreadsheet (so easily the exposure and the vulnerability, as This approach was proven successful overlooked), which enabled new well as the insurance and reinsurance during the hurricane season of 2005, levels of analysis by underwriters conditions that operate to protect those best known for Hurricane Katrina. It and insurance executives. But the assets. Each is a critical component in was also noteworthy for the frequency real seat of innovation came from the risk calculation process. of events, including Hurricanes Rita a small group of US engineering and Wilma later in the season, that consultancies driven by the losses Calculating risk also brought significant losses. from the Northridge earthquake. They took the view that there must Increasingly sophisticated catastrophe The insurance and reinsurance be a more rigorous approach to models do provide rigour to the process markets creaked a little under the evaluating the frequency and severity of financial risk quantification, even if strain of these losses, but there were of hazards, the extent and vulnerability they do not capture the full spectrum few, if any, company failures. This of exposed assets and the losses that of risks that exist in the real world. was due to the rise of catastrophe could result. These firms (Applied risk modelling and its role in enabling Insurance Research, Risk Management Historical records and weather data insurers and reinsurers to become Solutions and EQECAT) supported by reanalysis are used to inform random better capitalized against these reinsurance investors who encouraged event sets. These are developed to events. new quantitative approaches, simulate extreme weather activity revolutionized the insurance industry over thousands of years and generate over the last 15-20 years and created a projection of the possible range Public science in a new sub-industry: catastrophe risk and frequency of extreme events. modelling. A key in hazard modelling is the risk models parameters measuring damage at Catastrophe risk modelling repre- and after each storm –simulating the Yet the underestimates of losses to sented the first effective mediation of wind field ‘footprint’ by choosing the be expected from a hurricane with science into the insurance industry, most appropriate measure causing the attributes of Katrina brought building firms’ resilience to extreme damage, such as maximum sustained the accuracy and dependency events. The fundamental approach gust speed or storm surge depth. on catastrophe modelling into and philosophy is common across question. There could be no retreat. different hazards and geographic In parallel, databases are developed The only answer was more and areas. describing the location and character better modelling, but the seeds of of exposed buildings and other the next revolution had been sown. Catastrophic events are infrequent and assets. They cover factors such as That revolution brought the deeper extreme. Consequently, models need age, construction type and height. integration of public science into
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 35 catastrophe risk modelling and Catastrophes are a major risk to provide greater insight into time and reinsurance, and is still underway. portfolios at this level of probability. space connections that support more Its effects are profoundly important As a result, catastrophe modelling confident portfolio diversification. to financial and scientific communities will form a significant component of alike. the wider modelling required to fulfil For the first time, high-resolution the risk quantification, management global climate models allow extreme Regulating climate risk and strategic planning requirements weather systems such as tropical of the regulator.
A related revolution, closely linked to T h e i m p o r t a n c e o f The integration of public science the catastrophe modelling industry, meteorological hazards has been underway in the world of to the loss potential at with risk markets offers new financial regulation. This is led by the 0.5% probability, authorities seeking to ensure that c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e opportunities to manage risk institutions and customers they uncertainty attributed to serve will be able to withstand market climatic variability and the shocks and extreme events. lack of observed data to represent cyclones to be represented at an potential extreme event ranges at equivalent resolution to observed Throughout the world, insurance these levels, creates a challenge to weather data. This is underpinning policies which consumers buy for the insurer and regulator. They must the drive towards understanding the their homes, cars, lives and other effectively quantify the risk without probability of climate events. Crucially, risks are expected to work to the confidence in the potential frequency the models examine the causal role of 1 in 200 year tolerance. In other and severity of the events that could global climatic systems in determining words, insurance and reinsurance cause the loss. temporal and spatial patterns of companies should have access hazard intensity and frequency that to sufficient capital to withstand The US National Association of control extreme event occurrences at the maximum probable loss (or Insurance Commissioners has gone the 1:200 year or greater recurrence combination of loss events) expected one step further, requiring insurers frequency. once in every 200 years. This is a to disclose their estimation of the uniquely high tolerance level among climate risk that their portfolios of Various initiatives address the links financial institutions. insured assets face, as well as the between public science and the risk steps those organizations are taking and reinsurance/insurance sector. Natural catastrophes, through their to protect their capital. The largest is the Willis Research scale and impact on insurers and Network, sponsored by Willis reinsurers, represent the single Group, an insurance and reinsurance largest risk to insurance company Public-private synergy broker. The Willis Research Network capital. Hydro-meteorological hazards supports open science at almost dominate both the frequency and fifty universities and public science magnitude of historic and modelled Continued synergy between public institutions worldwide. losses at the global scale. scientists and the catastrophe modelling community is critical. For example, the UK National Centre Regulators’ concern over the financial The synergy can provide tools and for Atmospheric Sciences and the UK market risk that the insurance industry understanding to help insurance and Met Office have produced a dataset faces (such as investment asset, reinsurance industries remain solvent of tropical cyclone tracks equivalent liquidity and credit risk) is augmented in the face of extreme events. As to 300 years of observed weather, to by concerns about climate risk. regulatory requirements continue to a consistent quality and resolution They are concerned that clustering, focus on extremes, the convergence across the globe. Through research correlation and uncertainty about of global climate models and weather undertaken at the Universities of climate variability and extreme events forecasting systems will be central to Reading and Exeter, these data for drive risk within a non-stationary quantifying and assessing climate risk, the first time have been successfully climatic environment. and financially protecting communities incorporated into a catastrophe in the face of climate uncertainty. modelling format equivalent to Regulatory requirements (such as the existing models. European Union Solvency II Directive The integration of public science with risk that is emerging) are defined in terms markets and the populations they serve The research models global climate of capital availability, to ensure that may offer entirely new opportunities system processes such as the El the probability of insolvency is <0.5%. to manage risk. Global climate models Niño-Southern Oscillation and the
36 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Julian-Madden Oscillation, critical to climate and rainfall models. It is reinsurers to design and implement determining annual distributions of very early days, the dawn of a new operational services that support extreme weather events. The tracks era, with operational result many situational awareness and decision- and their associated frequencies years away, but the trajectory and making. German authorities, the of occurrence can be analyzed at lines of integration are forming US National Oceanographic and annual, seasonal and multi-annual quickly. Atmospheric Administration and time scales, taking account global others have announced similar cycles of climatic anomalies. The programmes. In light of national results provide new insight into the Towards operational and intergovernmental policy, these likely future patterns of extreme trends are expected to continue. events, over and above that observed climate forecasting Within five to 10 years operational in the much shorter historical climate forecasting is likely to play record. All this forms the foundation of an important role in supporting the a movement that is likely to have financial stability of re/insurance For the first time, the increased skill revolutionary consequences for companies and the oversight of of these models and their operational disaster risk management and regulatory authorities. counterparts are also allowing multi- insurance and reinsurance markets: annual hurricane forecasting in the operational climate forecasting. These are early days in the North Atlantic. The next challenge development of a computationally is to augment industry catastrophe The future direction of climate sophisticated stable of climate and model event sets with these outputs science and operational climate weather models. The science is still to provide greater confidence of forecasting services set by the young. Researchers will have to current levels of variability. resolutions at the World Climate investigate the outputs of the models Conference-3 (Geneva, 2009) is and use them in conjunction with In another example, the US National having a profound impact on the observed data, in order to ensure their Center For Atmospheric Research ability of exposed populations and interpretation is appropriate. Yet this (NCAR) and the Princeton University markets to manage risk. new source of robust, scientifically- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics based, peer-reviewed data – a spin-off Laboratory focus on North Atlantic For reinsurers and insurers, the key of wider global climate modelling tropical cyclone risk. At NCAR a operational time horizon is six to programmes – provides the risk groundbreaking programme is under- 18 months ahead. The time horizon for community with new, complementary way to provide global indices of strategic management is 10-15 years. information. Climate and weather hurricane risk that accurately reflect There are new opportunities to match models will help assess the likely the characteristics of damage-produc- capital with risk over this period, future levels of extreme weather ing storms. These indices offer means driven by the potential for greater risk and severity and improve risk of liberating new sources of capital confidence of relative risk levels decision-making in an increasingly to help protect exposed populations through better understanding of uncertain future. via public or private programmes. pertinent climates.
Meanwhile, flood risk modelling, at The UK Met Office Climate Service local, regional or event global scales has developed a close relationship can now be informed by integrated with an international group of
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 37 Bring financial and
scientific analysts s roline Hoo /Ca u .h
together c .sx www
Interview with Dominic Waughray ©
National planners are looking for very interested in the possibilities fora, there is an ability to process private investors to help finance low- of low-carbon futures. But I would information into scenarios and arenas carbon development plans. At the suggest that in the agricultural of probability. heart of these decisions is the ability and financial communities there is to determine probable climate risks very deep interest in data related A step forward could be a more for a range of economic sectors – not to changing variability and climate interactive channel between those just energy and transportation, but patterns. Food and agro-processing who make business and investment also food, agro-processing, finan- and financial services communities, decisions, on the one hand, and those cial services and other sectors, notes particularly in the insurance and in the scientific community on the Dominic Waughray, special guest at reinsurance sectors, need this modelling side, on the other. this year’s World Meteorological Day information. celebration in Geneva. Don’t forget that in businesses, the Q. Are business leaders in these financial analyst community and Q. You’ve been in contact with a sectors getting the climate informa- the scientific community, there are wide range of industry leaders on tion they need? mathematicians who have been to environment issues. Which industry the same schools. They use the same sectors express the greatest need Dominic Waughray: The shortest kinds of probability models. That for climate information to shape answer is yes. But how much connectivity can take us forward. their business decisions and why? information should we get for such a complex and multi-varied challenge? Q. The WMO Congress in 2011 is Dominic Waughray: The answer The challenge for decision-makers reviewing proposals for a Global might not be as obvious as it first lies in the type of information they Framework on Climate Services seems. Clearly, those in the energy receive. Through the International which would provide climate and transportation sectors are Panel on Climate Change and other information for decision-makers. We think this can yield considerable socio-economic benefits in health, food security, transportation, energy Dominic Waughray is Senior Director and Head of and other sectors. Will this initiative Environmental Initiatives at the World Economic Forum. help fill a vacuum in providing He has worked as Managing Partner, Environmental services and making them accessible Resources Management, UK, focused on environment to a wider audience? and developing country issues, with clients from the public sector (such as aid agencies and governments) Dominic Waughray: Any initiative and the private sector (mostly oil, gas and mining). in this domain is to be welcomed, He also worked for the Institute of Hydrology, now Dominic Waughray especially at the current time when the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, a public sector research organ- there is so much conversation around ization that is part of the UK Natural Environmental Research Council. data, modelling and the impact of He studied geography and economics at the University of Cambridge climate change. The interesting thing and has a Master’s in Economics from University College, London. is how one designs, organizes and implements such an initiative.
38 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 a onin a j ucien Ra /L o t o ©UN Ph Development planners need to look decades into the future to determine their water needs, which are affected by a changing climate.
The ability for direct contact among and decisions that have to be made for You may have heard about the those at the cutting edge of scientific the future, it’s useful to put decisions Carbon Disclosure Project, where modelling is important. Extreme through the optic of something as companies provide information weather events and the impact on tangible as water supply. to investors on carbon liabilities. commodity prices, for example, There is now a Water Disclosure is of great interest. There is a link In business value chains, whether Project along the same lines. It’s between scientists and those in the a company is involved in agro- a very interesting development. financial community who interpret processing, growing food or mining, that information. one needs an awful lot of water for Many times the choke those operations. These businesses To work together closely without will be looking 20 to 30 years into the point is water – trade-offs economists or government policy- future for the availability of water. Or between competing needs makers as intermediaries could be a one may be in government, looking at new way of having a public-private economic growth trajectories of five, interface. Put those directly involved six or seven percent per annum, and As scientific information becomes in modelling from the scientific and what that means in terms of increase available on water, it is shared with the financial community together. in food or energy demand and investors. supply. Q. You’ve done a lot of work on We derive our information from water. Water is clearly important Many times the choke point is water – what the WMO and others develop as a sector in its own right, and as the trade-offs for water between these about climate scenarios and impacts key ingredient for many business competing needs. Good-quality yearly on water resources. I think people sectors. What kind of climate or seasonal weather information (such might not realize the extent to information related to water do you as changing monsoon patterns) as which companies use the very same use in your own work with business well as long-term climate trends information that comes from IPCC leaders? What kind of climate have become very important to some scenarios and run it through their information do they need related to companies, investors and economic own investment models. water supplies? policy makers. So data produced by WMO and Dominic Waughray: When one talks Investors find climate disclosure others are extremely important. This about the impacts of climate change, initiatives of particular interest. is particularly true about water. It is
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 39 one of the most important interaction The debate has turned to one of of knowledge, South-South or North- points between business and the investment. This is the interface South or vice-versa. I’m thinking, scientific community in the climate where scientists and investors can for example, of the fast rise of the change debate. collaborate. financial services community in China or India and bringing those people to Q. The scientific community should From my experience in public-private interact with scientific modellers in translate data into information into dialogues, I’d say focus on developing the USA. It makes for an interesting material that investors and analysts the technical discussion. Take it down global mix of ideas and experiences can use. Your World Meteorological a level from top decision-makers. For that can only benefit the agenda, in Day presentation mentions the instance, for particular commodities, my view. need to create policy spaces on a h a v e b u s i n e s s regular basis for dialogue. Could you a n a l y s t s m e e t elaborate? regularly with the People may not realize the extent to experts in regional which companies use the very same Dominic Waughray: I was invited to d e p a r t m e n t s speak on the latest developments of international information that comes from IPCC for in public-private arena of climate o r g a n i z a t i o n s . change, and the science that requires. T h a t e x c h a n g e their own models The latest developments, in a nutshell, will bring greater encourage private investment understanding of where the debate Q. To sum up, are there specific in national plans for low-carbon stands, and show where uncertainties actions that National Meteorological development. So this has moved from still lie. and Hydrological Services should take a macro-level conversation among to foster public-private initiatives? policy-makers and academics to Q. At that level, they speak the same tangible discussions with the private language. Dominic Waughray: I cut my teeth sector about generating investment. in my first job in the UK Institute The search is on for good-quality case Dominic Waughray: It’s interesting, of Hydrology (now the Centre for studies. because they come from similar Ecology and Hydrology). We were graduate schools, and they move assigned specific research topics. It The scientific community will have to from financial services to the scientific would have been difficult for scientist look at levels of risk and probability community and vice versa. They use A or B to suddenly reach out and have within a particular region or sector the same techniques in different a public-private partnership. over a given time frame. Then let settings. the market decide – the market is a Rather, it is up to the leaders of these good judge when given information Q. Is this happening already? institutions to look at what role the about risk and probability. The institutions should play in society. government does not have to be the Dominic Waughray: I would imagine There is a change in the agenda and only consumer. Providing data to it is still ad-hoc. Perhaps a far-sighted the need for consumption of climate investors and companies to make financial services firm has struck a information across the economy. those decisions at a national level deal with a National Meteorological Those who make political and is as important as providing climate and Hydrological Service. No doubt bureaucratic decisions about funding, data purely to government. it happens. direction and organizational strategy need to take these trends into account, This is the interesting new area where The advantage of having a global and find new ways to engage with scientists and the private sector could platform through an organization like private sector for the services they come together. WMO is the greater reach for transfer provide to society.
40 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 The new communications dy r a tta H ne a / Z
climate u .h c .sx by Andrew C. Revkin* © www
From blogs to videos, Twitter to cell carbon dioxide concentrations or paucity of data and capacity in places phones, new forms of media provide sea level. The explosive expansion that need it most. The lack of publicly new opportunities for outreach. of mobile phone subscriptions in available climate and weather data in developing countries could soon much of Africa, recently discussed in a One of the most enduring needs of erase a substantial portion of the Nature commentary (Thomson et al.), societies rich and poor is for reliable digital divide between rich and poor. is featured in a WMO Bulletin article and timely information on the weather Already, a rural farmer in Kenya can linking changing temperatures and and, increasingly, on the causes and get her maize price by phone even malaria. The Rockefeller Foundation consequences of grander-scale shifts when she lacks a light bulb or toilet. is trying to foster another vital kind of in the climate system itself. Imagine when she can also get longer- communication in Africa – between term precipitation forecasts to help agencies and organizations focused We live at a point in human history decide which crops to plant. on climate and those focused on when technology and communication agriculture and water. The University would seem to make it entirely of Colorado Center for Capacity possible to serve societies’ needs. Bridging the Building is another example of efforts I have an application on my smart to boost resilience to climate-related phone that provides a radar loop communications gap hazards in struggling regions. of regional weather, moment by moment. I can click onto Climate. But an enormous gap persists But my sense is that the gap between gov, a Website created recently by between what is possible and what is information and impact can also be the National Oceanic and Atmospheric happening – at least for the moment. substantially reduced (without a Administration, and track trends in One problem, of course, is simply a large financial cost) simply if more scientists and scholars, and their institutions, think creatively about Mobile cellular subscriptions, by level of development ways to expand their communication 2000 2005 2010 estimate circles and pathways.
One reason to pursue such steps is that the capacity of traditional journalism outlets to be the Total 719 million intermediary is declining. Overall resources are strained and the Total 2.2 billion number of experienced professional
Total 5.3 billion science and environment reporters is shrinking. This doesn’t mean science A mobile future. Mobile phone subscriptions have dramatically increased over the last decade journalism is dying. It is evolving. in developing countries, offering new possibilities to communicate climate information. Source: International Telecommunications Union But it is doing so in ways that won’t
* Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University Academy for Applied Environmental Studies and writer of the Dot.Earth blog for The New York Times.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 41 so with what, to my eye, appears to be an utterly inadequate budget for communicating its findings and responding in an agile way to nonstop public scrutiny facilitated by the Internet. I would love to think that the countries that created the climate panel could also contribute to boosting the panel’s capacity for The singing climatologist. Think creatively transparency, responsiveness and about communicating science concepts to outreach. a wide audience. Source: Dot.Earth blog, The New York Times I made this point recently in an e-mail exchange with three leaders of the climate panel’s next assessment – the government agency with a mandate chairman, Rajendra K. Pachauri, and in its founding legislation (1958) Thomas Stocker and Christopher Field, to communicate its findings to the scientists respectively co-leading public, uses Twitter – in concert the reports on climate science and with a globe-spanning network of Trends at a glance. Communicating carbon impacts. amateur astronomers – to bat down dioxide concentrations, sea level and other rumors and provide a swift source of climate trends at a glance, combining the They all agreed that more resources updates and basic information. Have power of communications and the web. Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric and a clear communications strategy a look at the Tweets posted at http:// Administration’s new Climate Services Web pages are badly needed. “Despite several www.twitter.com/asteroidwatch – years of highlighting the need for maintained by the agency’s Jet effective communications and Propulsion Laboratory – and you’ll outreach, we have really made very notice another vital feature right away. benefit an agency, say, that sticks with little headway, and I know that we It’s a two-way portal, not simply a the 20th century model of distributing cannot delay action in this area much place to post news. And, of course, a press release and waiting for it’s global. journalists to call back to fill in the gaps. In some ways, in fact, science Communicating well is an issue T h e s a m e m i x communication is expanding rapidly. of time, culture and courage o f s o c i a l a n d The number of science blogs has electronic networks grown tremendously, for example. But c a n h e l p t r a c k the number of such outlets that can longer,” Dr Pachauri wrote. “If we do, and respond to questions and be relied upon to provide accurate, it would be at our own peril.” misinformation on weather and or un-spun, information is tougher to climate. There are thousands of track. As Nadia El-Wady, the president Creative models amateur weather bugs around the of the World Federation of Science world, not to mention weather Journalists, put it last year, there are Here are some examples of creative forecasters and meteorologists “only a few pockets of excellence in approaches to improving the science/ working in the media. The American an ocean of mediocrity.” public policy interface that I see as Meteorological Society is working, models for much bigger and better through a programme called Diving into this arena requires time, efforts to come. “Station Scientists,” to enhance some level of culture change and the capacity of people delivering even courage, particularly given If you think the misinformation and weather forecasts on television to how the Web can be an amplifier for disinformation surrounding climate is communicate on related scientific unfounded attacks and disinformation special, check out the Web’s offerings and environmental issues. I wrote as much as knowledge. But hunkering on near-earth objects – the array of in March about the gutsy effort of down, as some institutions – including asteroids, comets and other hunks Bernie Rayno, a senior meteorologist the Intergovernmental Panel on of rock, metals and ice that swing for Accuweather, to refute unfounded Climate Change – tried to do after through Earth’s orbit and could, at assertions by a CNN anchor (a recent controversies, is probably some point, add a new scar to the lawyer by training) about radiation not a sustainable approach in the planet’s crater-pocked surface, but risks in the United States from long haul. As the IPCC prepares its this time with millions people in the Japanese nuclear crisis. Jeff Fifth Assessment Report, it does harm’s way. NASA, the only American Masters, at Wunderground.com, has
42 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 developed a popular blog exploring climate as well as weather.
The American Geophysical Union has started to test new approaches to communication, offering a “Climate Q&A Service” to reporters needing information on new studies or developments. The organization is also hosting a growing array of blogs on geophysical sciences, some written by its staff but many others by independent scientists. Here’s its explanation: “By supporting this Innovation in communicating data. These depictions of 24-hour air traffic patterns in North blogging community, A.G.U. also America illustrate the potential for communicating visually in new ways. Source: Aaron Koblin, Google fosters greater public awareness and understanding of Earth and space sciences, and facilitates more experimentation is great. This can be using sound to convey the scale effective use of scientific knowledge encouraged in students or by putting and character of the 11 March great to address society’s needs.” I think out a call to the general public to come earthquake (in one iteration, lower it’s a great idea. up with novel ways of communicating pitch equals deeper depth, louder science. volume equals more power). Some The Royal Society, the world’s oldest excellent examples illustrating what’s scientific academy, now has the Another ripe field is the use of possible in converting dry data to equivalent of a TV channel where it graphics and animation to convey striking, potentially “viral” displays, posts video of its events. I wouldn’t complicated information to broad can be found in the work of Aaron expect every climate scientist to be audiences. NASA, once again because Koblin of Google (see his animated willing to follow the course of Richard of its mandate, has an entire Scientific map showing 24 hours of air traffic Alley of Pennsylvania State University, Visualization Studio devoted to this over North America), Adam Nieman who’s been known to sing and even kind of work. I could see agencies and (in discussing climate and ocean dance to convey aspects of climate universities creating a kind of match. issues, I use his image displaying science to students and the wider com for scientific information in the volume of the world’s liquid water public. And, of course, he has tenure, search of fresh experiments in visual, and atmosphere as spheres) and at a providing the flexibility to do public and even auditory, communication. Website called Visualizing.org. outreach that a younger scientist or I mention sound because I recently agency staffer might lack. But a little came across some experiments A common theme in these models is a willingness to experiment and to engage with all publics, including those who might seem hostile at first glance. Harnessing the power of the globe-spanning “crowd” is another. The alternative is to hunker down, as if waiting for a storm to pass. But the explosive changes afoot in how people share information and shape ideas are no stray storm.
Interpreting them that way would be like mixing up weather and climate.
Conversing online. Classic Websites are hosting a growing array of blogs. These conversations require resourcing in order to provide stimulating content and nourish online conversation. Blogs are also a good venue to share interesting links to other content, including conference powerpoints, other Websites and videos. Among the sample above, the Plainspoken Scientist blog posting has an array of tips, graphics and links to other sources to help scientists communicate effectively. Source: American Geophysical Union
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 43 Student research for an informed generation LOBE 1 2 by Teresa J. Kennedy and Donna J. Charlevoix © G
“GLOBE teaches science content and These students have conducted environment and support achieve- also the process of science. Facts are hands-on research that allows ment in science and mathematics important, but the younger students them to understand how the Earth education around the world. are, the more important it is to learn system works, and to contribute to the process of science. Science isn’t an international scientific database, GLOBE and WMO have introduced about providing answers as much as it providing their peers around the scientific, computer, and is about asking questions,” said 1998 world, as well as scientists engaged communication technologies into Nobel Laureate Dr. Leon Lederman. in environmental research, with access to data that would otherwise Connecting and inspiring the next go uncollected. generation of scientists and informed citizens is our mission, and we believe it is more important than ever. Climate GLOBE and WMO change is one of the most important issues of our time. The more students collaboration understand how science works, the better the chances are that they will be WMO and GLOBE have been working informed eco-citizens, better able to together for several years to increase LOBE
make choices about what to consume, environmental awareness, develop © G where to live and how to work. scientific understanding of the global Students map a land cover site in Alaska.
classrooms around the world. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Meteorological Centres have promoted local scientists to work with our country coordinators and trainers, increasing the number of scientists working directly with students and teachers. These centres have been involved in regional activities such as teacher training and assistance to schools that lack access to computer technology and
LOBE electronic communications. WMO © G representatives have participated in Students determine the Modified UNESCO Classification at a site in Cameroon. GLOBE training activities in all regions, assisting students and their teachers 1 Teresa J. Kennedy, Director, International Division, The GLOBE Program, USA with the calibration of instruments and 2 Donna J. Charlevoix, Director, Science and Education Division, The GLOBE Program, USA Title photo: Thai students measure temperatures at solar noon from their school’s instrument collaborating with students on research shelter projects.
44 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 More about GLOBE
GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) is a hands-on, school and community-based science education programme uniting students, teachers and scientists in research LOBE
about the dynamics of the Earth’s environment. © G
Since 1995, over 1.5 million students in over 23 000 schools in 111 countries have taken GLOBE environmental measurements for use in their own research and for use by scientists around Many countries around the world participate in the world. More than 55 000 teachers have attended GLOBE the GLOBE programme. Participating countries are marked in green on the map. professional development activities. GLOBE students have reported over 22 million environmental measurements in the areas of atmosphere, land cover, hydrology, soil and Earth as a system.
Students conduct science by taking measurements, analyzing data, and participating in research collaborations with other students and international scientists engaged in cutting-edge Earth system science research. GLOBE students have been involved in United Nations World Water Day events, Surface Temperature Field Campaigns, Mt. Kilimanjaro student research expeditions, the International Day for Biological Diversity, National Lab Day, Global Day of Service, Live Earth and more.
One such activity was the WMO-GLOBE youth initiative at the WMO World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, Switzerland in 2009. Student messages on the topic “Youth Working to Solve Local Problems through Weather and Climate Research” were on display to provide scientists, policy-makers, global business leaders and media representatives with inspirational examples.
GLOBE is funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation and supported by the U.S. Department of State. It is implemented through a cooperative agreement between NASA and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. The International Division is located at a UCAR satellite office at the University of Texas at Tyler.
GLOBE partnered with the WMO to a worldwide student climate research • Exploring ecosystems and organize a Global Climate Change campaign. Topics for student research energy; Research and Education Workshop in that emerged from the meeting • Climate, carbon and your 2009. This helped set the foundation of included: footprint; • Global climate – local impacts; • Climate, pollution and human health.
Join the Student Climate Research Campaign
In September 2011, GLOBE will launch the Student Climate Research Campaign. WMO is a collaborator in this campaign, which aims to engage students around the world to investi- gate and research their local climate, and share their findings globally. LOBE
© G Students can investigate local issues Students conduct hydrology protocols in the Persian Gulf. related to climate through learning
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 45 activities, international collaborative GLOBE and WMO hope to involve discussions on climate, data collec- students of all ages in climate tion, and international short-term and studies through learning activities longer-term research investigations and international events, referred to or campaigns. as Intensive Observational Periods; empower students, teachers and The campaign will: community members to take action on • Promote student-led climate climate-related environmental issues; research and strengthen inter- and inspire students to explore career national student-scientist options in science. collaboration; • Increase students’ understanding National Meteorological and
of climate, specifically the Hydrological Services and Regional LOBE difference between weather and Meteorological Training Centres are © G In Benin, trainers prepare a teacher climate; strongly encouraged to engage their training session. • Increase students’ understanding education and training focal points of and ability to conduct in the campaign. They can liaise with questions; design investigations and scientific research focused on Ministries of Education to work with take environmental measurements climate; GLOBE Country Coordinators, teachers at or near their schools using meas- • Improve the global understand- and students, local scientists, and urement protocols and calibrated ing of primary and secondary especially to support observation measurement equipment; report students through increasing capabilities, provide computer access their observations via the Internet; collaborations among students, and help shape teacher training events. use tools to create maps and graphs teachers, and scientists focused from their own data, and those of on understanding the interactions Experiential learning schools around the world; analyze in the Earth system; and their data and other data sets to form • Extend partnerships with inter- Students make initial observations conclusions; and as all scientists do national science organizations. about the environment and pose at the end of their research, present and publish their results.
This student research is supported by an international group of implementation partners consisting of country coordinators and US representatives who recruit, train and mentor teachers. Partners work with scientists, community members and collaborating organizations to promote student learning, backed by regional offices which provide support services, including serving as the help desk for countries in each region.
Partners represent government ministries, as well as public, private and non-profit organizations that implement activities and provide local funding for teacher training and student research opportunities. Workshops help teachers gain content about core Earth system science concepts and provide pedagogical methods to teach children through hands-on, interactive approaches. LOBE
© G Partners often help teachers and their Qatari students analyze soil samples. students set up study sites, including
46 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 development workshops, mentor Sharing our lessons in science education students and teachers through scientist forums and podcasts, and inquiry formats, write research For those who are developing science education initiatives, here are articles that include student authors, some of the lessons we have learned. and take part in Learning Expeditions • Align content for teacher (every 3-5 years) where students training workshops with share their research with peers and local and national curriculum scientists from around the world. To programmes. date these symposia have been held • Hands-on research makes the in Finland, the USA, Croatia and South greatest long-term impact with Africa. National and regional student students. Combining such an research events take place annually, approach with interactions and provide students with the between students and scien- opportunity to establish friendships tists in other communities and and develop research partnerships countries provides new perspec- aimed at bringing together the next tives and understandings about generation of international scientists. LOBE
the world, other cultures and © G Students in Uruguay discuss cloud their sense of global community. Student research ranges from studies observations. • Cross-disciplinary approaches of the environmental effects of the through science motivate teach- 2004 Sumatran tsunami in Thailand, ers and their students through to water quality monitoring in India, natural interconnections Egypt, and other countries around the between mathematics, tech- world, to monitoring budburst and the nology, geography, language phenological development of local and many other subjects. trees in Europe and North America, to • Facilitate science, education investigating how seasonal variations and funding collaborations to in temperature, rainfall, and relative make outreach sustainable. Be humidity affect the incidence and
sure that partners have defined, LOBE morbidity of malaria in Africa and clear roles at every level, and © G Latin America. Students from France and the USA involve institutions in science measure the aerosol optical thickness of and education. the atmosphere with a sun photometer. This project-based approach to learning represents an educational experience that gives students instrument stations, and connect to of similar interest to one another. environmental and social literacies, scientists to work together on local, Scientists contribute to protocols creative problem-solving skills, and the national, regional and international and learning activities for student commitment to engage in responsible research projects. use around the world. (All GLOBE individual and collaborative actions materials are available for free for the benefit of their local, national, Schools, led by teachers and download at www.globe.gov.) These regional and global environments. administrators, link their projects scientists participate in professional
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 47 Creating a volunteer observing
network HS s, CoCoRa e g
1 2 e
Interview with Nolan Doesken and Henry Reges . R © H
Volunteers play an important role in The storm caught many by surprise. scientists, educators and many providing climate information. Their Our region is normally semi-arid, but others use the precipitation data for observations are critical to track local 300-370 mm of rain fell in one day in weather analysis, climate monitoring, climate variations and impacts and to parts of Fort Collins, Colorado, much hydrological prediction and warning, monitor changes in climate over time. of it in less than five hours. Several as well as for many business, research Volunteers also play an important role people died from the resulting flood, and education applications. in sensitizing the general public about and damage to the city of Fort Collins weather and climate issues, serving and our university campus exceeded Q. In an era where we have as informal climate “ambassadors.” US$ 200 million. sophisticated satellites, weather radar and other monitoring This year the United Nations cele- Radar, satellite and lightning detection systems, why do we need brates the tenth anniversary of the systems underestimated the rainfall. volunteers to monitor the climate? International Year of Volunteers, paying Surface weather stations were too tribute to the volunteers around the far apart to detect the local storm With the technology available world who take an active part in improv- centre. In response to this local storm, today, one might be tempted to ing the welfare of their communities. a community project was started to think that weather stations are less equip interested individuals, schools important now – especially volunteer Thomas Peterson, President of the and businesses with a basic rain neighbourhood measurements from WMO Commission for Climatology gauge to collect rain or snow. A low-cost plastic rain gauges. But inspired these leaders of a volunteer Website was developed to provide network to share their experiences training materials, data entry forms with the WMO Bulletin, in order to and the ability for participants and encourage an exchange of experiences users to immediately access and view among professionals interested in rain, hail and snow data. Volunteer fostering volunteer networks on data collection began in 1998. climate issues. Soon, scientists and participating Q. Why did you create a volunteer volunteers noted fascinating local network? variations in precipitation. The network spread, and has now expanded to The Community Collaborative Rain, all of the country. It is considered Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS, informal and is not an “official” www.cocorahs.org) began in 1998 federal climate observing system. by the staff of the Colorado Climate Yet the accuracy of the data compares HS Center at Colorado State University, favourably to official weather station s, CoCoRa e
USA, following a devastating local networks. Government agencies, g e
flash flood in 1997. private businesses, university . R © H
1 Nolan Doesken, State Climatologist, Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University, USA, and CoCoRaHS founder. 2 Henry Reges, CoCoRaHS National Coordinator, Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University, USA
48 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 nothing is farther from the truth. Q. How many volunteers does your Agriculture, universities, television Satellite and weather radar data are organization have? stations and businesses automatically very useful, but they are expensive, import data on preset intervals and and are most useful when they are We have over 15 000 volunteers integrate them with other sources. matched with what is happening measuring and reporting precipitation. The US National Climatic Data Center on the ground. Furthermore, radar Thousands more track precipitation began including our data in their coverage is limited or non-existent patterns and follow our activities on Global Historical Climate Network in some areas. the Internet. Most growth has come in in 2010. The National Weather Service the past four years, as we expanded River Forecast Centers routinely That is where volunteer measurements swiftly to all of the United States, include our reports to better predict come in. Our project has focused on including urban, rural, coastal and the levels of streams and rivers, and the measurement and reporting of mountainous regions. our data are increasingly used in the precipitation – rain, hail and snow weekly US Drought Monitor (www. – because precipitation is the most We hope to increase participation in drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html). variable of standard climate elements the coming years – perhaps doubling and arguably the most important. or tripling volunteers in the next few Our volunteers provide more data By collecting data from their own years. Currently, most volunteers are points daily than all official federal communities and neighbourhoods, between 45 and 75 years old. With observing networks in the USA volunteers learn about their local social networking, cell phones, smart combined. As the number of data conditions while providing much- phones and emerging technologies, points increase, the information needed data. The data are essential we hope to engage new and broader becomes increasingly valuable. A for systematic climate monitoring and audiences, including youth and all high density of gauges close to and the calibration and bias adjustment socio-economic levels of society. upstream of flood prone areas has process that makes remotely sensed proven valuable on many occasions products more accurate. Q. How do volunteers contribute to supplement official national and to climate monitoring? Where and local monitoring. Our volunteers are Volunteers also add the human how are the data used? encouraged to report zero on days element that technology cannot when it did not rain. These reports, provide. We encourage our volunteers Seeing data on continuously updated along with drought impact reports go to add descriptive comments along maps is a key to recruiting and directly to the National Drought with their numeric reports. Last May, retaining volunteers. It also helps Mitigation Center to one of our observers wrote, “Line us develop a strong user base. Our support its drought early Creek is higher than I have ever seen volunteers measure precipitation at or warning and awareness it. Water got up to the high ground near their own homes and report their efforts. beside the highway and washed observations via the Internet. The data 12 rolls of my hay away over six feet are immediately available on national, When the West Nile virus (about two metres) high. I could do state and local maps; participants and was spreading across nothing but watch them sail away. users can track precipitation patterns North America a few years Roads closed, school closed.” daily or longer term (www.cocorahs. ago, research scientists and local org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx). health agencies used our data to identify locations where mosquito Our data are used routinely to monitor larvae were most likely to hatch. and predict both drought and floods. There are relatively few sources of The National Weather Service, the data on hail and snow, so we help
HS National Climatic Data Center, the fill important monitoring gaps for US D e p ar tmen t of that as well. s, CoCoRa e g e Volunteer data collection can also . R
© H contribute to climate change research and education. Combining data from our volunteers with long-term climate records is yielding useful information about the frequency and extent of both dry and wet periods. Volunteers come from all parts of society.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 49 Ten lessons we learned
For those who want to begin or expand volunteer programmes, what recommendations do you have? Are there quick wins, or hard lessons that you can share?
We learned several useful lessons over the thirteen years since we first started this volunteer observing network. 1 Precipitation measurement is a good place to start. Precipitation is relevant nearly everywhere and impacts nearly everyone. The measurement is “relatively” easy for volunteers and the equipment is inexpensive. HS 2 Solid infrastructure is essential. This includes a
system for collecting, archiving and displaying volunteer s, CoCoRa e g e
data. It also includes enough staff or volunteers to get . R
started. © H 3 Partners with a vested interest in the process, the people and the data make a huge difference. Include local water utilities, agricultural extension services, university researchers, official climatologists and weather service personnel across the country. These partners can provide human and financial resources that help greatly. 4 Keep things simple. Logistics need to be considered. Even for a “simple” project it is a significant challenge to pay for and distribute rain gauges. In our case, most volunteers purchase their own gauge, or local sponsors support and distribute gauges in a particular region. A small number of commercial vendors distribute gauges at a reduced cost. Giving someone a rain gauge doesn’t guarantee they will use it. 5 Set goals and share them with your volunteer community. They may help you meet them. What coverage do you need and with how many stations? In our experience, at least one station every three to five km2 is ideal, but that just won’t be realistic in many areas. Another way to set goals is to look at the official surface observing system. It is a good goal to match or exceed the existing number of gauges from official surface networks. 6 Participation should be rewarding. Our volunteers have their own station names and their own dots on the maps. Having their own place where they can see their data gives them an important identity. Volunteers like their data to be visible and used for beneficial purposes that help their communities, such as better weather or flood forecasts and warnings. 7 Provide training and positive feedback. This includes clear, understandable instructions, ideally provided by local people who give face-to-face instruction and then follow up. 8 Engage local leaders. Strong local leadership on a volunteer basis by climate, water and university professionals is a key to fuel expansion and sustain the network. A national organization needs strong local leaders to keep volunteers engaged. 9 Be open to ideas from volunteers and their communities. Give your volunteer leaders reasonable autonomy since they know their communities best. Stay in touch with them regularly so that there are open channels for ideas. Some desire to be connected to the larger community. E-mail and Web-based communication has worked for us, but we realize this may not work the same way everywhere. Social networking is becoming popular. Take advantage of available communications technologies and use what works best.
10 Patient, persistent, enthusiastic leadership helps. Working with volunteers takes time. It took several years until our project reached a critical mass and then began growing quickly. There will be some unexpected outcomes and some quick wins. We found, for example, that older adults were our most committed volunteers, and our project helped many of them to use the Internet better. We also did not expect the data to be so incredibly useful and of such high quality.
50 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Q. What motivates volunteers to join and to stay on over time?
Most volunteers are at least 45 years of age and have a personal
curiosity or a professional interest HS in weather, climate, agriculture or
water resources. We benefit from s, CoCoRa e g close partnership with the US e . R
National Weather Service and their © H network of “storm spotters,” many of whom have become rain gauge volunteers. Farmers, gardeners, Volunteers report their daily observations on an interactive Website. families introducing their children to science projects and professionals who work with water projects and utilities are among our volunteers. for many years. Some volunteer people each year. By telling their observers have stayed for the full stories and sharing their observations, Many participants want to be sure 13 years we have been in operation. they extend aspects of climate literacy that their efforts (two to five minutes Others drop out due to illness or lack to friends, neighbours, family and a day) produce useful information. of time. Some participate a year or coworkers. Seeing their data on TV or in print is two. Still others sign up with good very rewarding. Volunteers greatly intentions, but never manage to Volunteers frequently ask “Are appreciate seeing their data displayed make that first observation, even with scientists really using our data?” As on the project Website and sharing it encouragement. they come to appreciate how much easily with friends and family. their data are used, that becomes Incentives can help initiate and a strong motivation. Some of our Schools and students are a small maintain participation. In some volunteers then become some of our but growing part of our network. communities, we have provided best recruiters and trainers. Schools are a logical group to target additional instrumentation, training as they are well distributed across and face-to-face communication with Our hope is to develop more ways the country, but the school schedule, local weather and water officials. to convey practical and important vacations, and the heavy load on weather, climate and water information teachers make it hard to maintain Q. Do you think volunteers are to our observers, thus providing them long-term commitment. climate service “ambassadors,” with the tools to make informed talking about the experiences of decisions and to better understand Strong local leadership provided on what they do with a broader public and interpret information they gather a volunteer basis from many climate, of non-specialists? Do you work from other sources. water and university professionals with them to ensure they help has been a key ingredient to fuel our communicate complex climate Q. For the world’s poorest countries, expansion. concepts accurately? how are these experiences relevant? What kind of resources does one As we have grown, our volunteers do Definitely. Our volunteers are becoming need – finance, institutional support, much of our recruitment, as they reach climate service “ambassadors” educational programmes? How out to friends, family and coworkers. whether they realize it or not. As many stations are enough? Early on, our best recruitment efforts climatologists, we share what we learn came by working with local broadcast with our volunteers through the project Strategies and expectations change meteorologists, agricultural extension Website, through daily messages that depending on the socio-economic programmes, national weather service appear each time a volunteer submits environment (including in the USA). forecasters and natural resource a data report and from personalized Yet precipitation remains an important non-governmental organizations. e-mails sent to every participant every asset or liability, no matter where one two to three weeks. lives in the world. It takes ongoing outreach to maintain high participation levels. Overall, We have surveyed our volunteers and In low-income areas, schools, institu- about half of those who initially sign up found that they share their experience tions, non-governmental organizations become data collectors and continue with an average of six to ten additional and tourist attractions can be good
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 51 Still, at a cost of approximately US$ 30 per gauge and with the efficiencies of Web-based communication in many parts of the world, this investment represents good value for the money. One could start with pilot projects in areas prone to floods or drought, where some institutional support is available, and then expand from there.
There is no single answer about how many rain gauges are needed. What’s most important is to increase the
er Debebe number of observations from current d
kin levels. It’s also important to make /Es
o data available easily to volunteers t o as well as users, in order to keep volunteer motivation high. What we © UN Ph Schools can be an important part of volunteer networks. have found is that having very large concentrations of rain gauges – more than one per 5-10 km2 – allows natural initial candidates for local rain gauge There are costs to the logistics of variability and extremes of rainfall to stations. The motivation to track and recruiting and training volunteers, be defined. Volunteers frequently say, report precipitation should come from distributing rain gauges, receiving “I had no idea that rainfall varied so within a country, not from outside. data reports and having sufficient much here in our community.” Volunteer efforts are best when organ- computers. Reliable, fast Internet ized by local leaders and institutions. access is also important.
52 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 Contribute to BLUE Art for climate
Painter Laurence Longueville launched the BLUE art for climate initiative at the 2011 World Meteorological Day celebrations at WMO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland by donating one of her works (above) to WMO.
BLUE brings together on the web painters from the world over in a M . J a rra u d , W M O Secretary-General and tribute to scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists and climatologists, L. Longueville, founder as the expression of a shared quest for a better life for everyone on of BLUE Art at the 2011 World Meteorological this planet. Day c elebration in Geneva. A selection will be displayed on the WMO online art gallery (www.wmo.int/artgallery/) and the United Nations will host an exhibit at WMO headquarters for World Meteorological Day 2011.
To contribute to this initiative, see bluegva.blogspot.com/
WMO support for the BLUE initiative shall not involve the legal or financial responsibility of the Organization.
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 53 WMO Milestones
1853 First International Meteorological 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of Conference (Brussels) the Ozone Layer 1873 WMO predecessor, the International 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Meteorological Organization (IMO) Deplete the Ozone Layer established 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on 1947 WMO Convention agreed unanimously by Climate Change established Conference of Directors 1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established 1950 WMO Convention entered into force on 1990 Second World Climate Conference, which 23 March initiated the Global Climate Observing 1951 WMO became a specialized agency of the System; the International Decade for United Nations Natural Disaster Reduction; First IPCC 1957 Global Ozone Observing System set up Assessment Report released 1957/1958 Participation in the International 1991 WMO/UNEP convened first meeting Geophysical Year of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee of the United Nations 1963 World Weather Watch launched Framework Convention on Climate 1971 Tropical Cyclone project established Change (upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 1992 The Global Climate Observing System Programme in 1980) established 1972 Operational Hydrology Programme 1993 World Hydrological Cycle Observing established System launched 1976 WMO issues first international 1995 Climate Information and Prediction assessment of the state of global ozone Services established; Second IPCC 1977 Integrated Global Ocean Services Assessment Report released System established jointly by WMO and 2000 WMO celebrates 50 years of service the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO 2001 Third IPCC Assessment Report released 1978/1979 Global Weather Experiment and 2003 Natural Disaster Prevention and Monsoon Experiments under the Global Mitigation Programme, Space Atmospheric Research Programme Programme and Programme for the Least Developed Countries launched 1979 First World Climate Conference, which led to the establishment of the 2005 Group on Earth Observations Secretariat Intergovernmental Panel on Climate established at WMO headquarters Change (IPCC), the World Climate 2007 Fourth IPCC Assessment Report released; Programme and the World Climate IPCC is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize Research Programme 2009 World Climate Conference-3 1980 World Climate Research Programme 2010 WMO celebrates 60 years established
54 | WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 The World Meteorological Organization
Elected members of the Executive Council Working together for monitoring, understanding and predicting weather, climate and water G. Adrian (Germany)* A.C. Anuforom (Nigeria)* G.P. Ayers (Australia)* The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of O.M.L. Bechir (Mauritania) the United Nations. It is the UN system’s authoritative voice on the state H.H. Ciappesoni (Argentina) and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, C. De Simone (Italy)* J.C. Fallas Sojo (Costa Rica)* the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources. W. Gamarra Molina (Peru) R. García Herrera (Spain)* N.D. Gordon (New Zealand)* D. Grimes (Canada) J.L Hayes (USA)* J. Hirst (United Kingdom)* The World Meteorological Executive Council* F. Jacq (France)* Congress L. Makuleni (Ms) (South Africa) President J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) is the supreme body of the A.I. Bedritskiy (Russian Federation) M. Ostojski (Poland) Organization. It brings together First Vice-President P. Taalas (Finland)* delegates of all Members once every A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) A. Tyagi (India)* four years to determine general Second Vice-President F. Uirab (Namibia) policies for the fulfilment of the T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean K.S. Yap (Malaysia) purposes of the Organization. Territories) G. Zheng (China) Third Vice-President * acting A.D. Moura (Brazil) The Executive Council Presidents of technical is composed of 37 directors Ex officio members of the Executive of National Meteorological or commissions Council (presidents of regional Hydrometeorological Services Aeronautical Meteorology associations) serving in an individual capacity; it C.M. Shun meets once a year to supervise the Africa (Region I) Agricultural Meteorology programmes approved by Congress. M.L. Bah (Guinea) B-L. Lee Asia (Region II) Atmospheric Sciences V. Chub (Uzbekistan) M. Béland The six regional associations South America (Region III) Basic Systems are each composed of Members M. Araneda Funtes (Ms) (Chile) F.R. Branski whose task it is to coordinate North America, Central America and Climatology meteorological, hydrological the Caribbean (Region IV) T.C. Peterson and related activities within their A.W. Rolle (Bahamas) Hydrology respective Regions. South-West Pacific (Region V) J. Wellens-Mensah (acting) S. Woro B. Harijono (Ms) (Indonesia) Instruments and Methods of Europe (Region VI) Observation The eight technical commissions I. Čačič (Croatia) B. Calpini are composed of experts designated Oceanography and Marine by Members and are responsible Meteorology for studying meteorological and P. Dexter and A.V. Frolov hydrological operational systems, applications and research.
* Composition as of 1 May 2011
WMO Bulletin 60 (1) - 2011 | 55 “Getting climate information to those who need it most – the poorest and the most vulnerable – is the greatest priority.”
Jan Egeland, Co-Chair, High-Level Taskforce of the Global Framework on Climate Services Weather • Climate • Water Vol. 60 (1) - 2011 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int
REAChIng uSERS WITh ClIMATE SERVICES
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A photographer documents a warming world 23
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The new communications climate, ISSN 0042-9767 Revisiting the East African as seen by The New York Times Financial markets drive malaria debate 9 Dot.Earth blog 41 demand for climate models 34