Confidential Memorandum
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CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM TO: SAVE AMERICA PAC TEAM FROM: TONY FABRIZIO, DAVID LEE, & TRAVIS TUNIS RE: TRUMP ENDORSEMENT WOULD UPEND GEORGIA GOP GOVERNOR PRIMARY & ENSURE VICTORY FOR HERSCHEL WALKER IN SENATE PRIMARY DATE: AUGUST 16, 2021 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates recently completed a survey of n=500 likely Republican primary election voters (RPV) in Georgia (See methodology statement and key demographics on last page). We found that Brian Kemp is a weak incumbent that could be very susceptible to a strong primary challenge, Herschel Walker could run away with the Senate nomination, and that an endorsement from President Trump would propel David Perdue into a lead over Kemp and virtually guarantee Walker a win. Near Universal Approval of President Trump, Kemp Pales in Comparison More than 90% of Georgia RPV approve of Trump, including 74% who strongly approve of him. The former President remains the 800-pound gorilla in Georgia GOP politics. Comparatively, Gov. Kemp’s approval rating is anemic. While his approval rating is positive, more than a quarter of his own party’s primary voters disapprove of his job performance. Furthermore, of the 69% who approve of him, only 24% strongly approve (compared to 74% for Trump), indicating a very soft positive that can be more easily shifted. Generally speaking, did you approve or disapprove of the job [Donald Trump did as President/ Brian Kemp is doing as Governor]? ((IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK) Would you say you STRONGLY (approve/disapprove) or just SOMEWHAT (approve/disapprove)?) Donald Trump Brian Kemp TOTAL APPROVE 93 69 TOTAL DISAPPROVE 6 27 Strongly approve 74 24 Somewhat approve 19 46 Somewhat disapprove 1 14 Strongly disapprove 4 13 DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1 4 NET APPROVE +87 +42 Despite Being the Incumbent, Kemp Can’t even Capture Half the Electorate in Gov Primary Brian Kemp only wins 41% of the Georgia RPV electorate, while his competitors win a combined 38% and 20% are undecided. It is always a troubling sign when an incumbent with 68% job approval can’t even break 50% with his own party’s primary voters. If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, for which of the following candidates would you vote? (READ AND RANDOMIZE) Brian Kemp 41 Vernon Jones 19 David Perdue 16 Kandiss Taylor 3 Jonathan Garcia <1 Undecided 20 Underscoring just how weak Kemp is among RPV, when he is tested head-to-head with David Perdue, he still fails to break 50%, leading just 46% - 40% with 14% undecided. Supporters of the other candidates and 3-way undecideds shift almost exclusively to Perdue – underscoring Kemp’s potential vulnerability. More specifically, if the Republican Primary for Governor were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE NAMES) Brian Kemp and David Perdue, for whom would you vote? (PROBE: Definitely/Probably) BRIAN KEMP 46 DAVID PERDUE 40 Definitely Kemp 25 Probably Kemp 21 Probably Perdue 20 Definitely Perdue 20 Undecided 14 A Trump Endorsement Would Catapult Perdue to a Double-Digit Lead over Kemp Trump’s endorsement of David Perdue would completely upend the race. Perdue’s share of the vote more than doubles from 16% to 41%, while Kemp sees a huge chunk of his voters slip away, going from 41% to 26%. In fact, among initial Kemp voters, he is barely able to hang on to a majority of them. 3- in-10 initial Kemp voters shift to Perdue, and another 11% move to undecided. If you knew that President Donald Trump endorsed and fully supported David Perdue for Governor and the Republican primary for Governor were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you vote for? (READ AND RANDOMIZE NAMES) Georgia RPV Initial Kemp Voters Initial Informed Net Shift Initial Informed Net Shift David Perdue 16 41 +25 - 30 +30 Brian Kemp 41 26 -15 100 58 -42 Vernon Jones 19 13 -6 - 1 +1 Kandiss Taylor 3 3 - - - - Jonathan Garcia <1 <1 - - - - Undecided 20 17 -3 - 11 +11 Herschel Walker in a Commanding Lead in the Senate Primary, Can Possibly Win w/out a Runoff Herschel Walker is the clear frontrunner in the race for U.S. Senate. Even with 35% of voters still undecided, Walker wins 54% of the vote, breaking the magic 50% threshold needed to avert a runoff. No other candidate breaks 5%, giving Walker a giant advantage out of the gate over any and all challengers. If the Republican Primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, for which of the following candidates would you vote? (READ AND RANDOMIZE) Hershel Walker 54 Gary Black 5 Buddy Carter 3 Kelvin King 2 Latham Saddler 1 Undecided 35 An Endorsement from Trump Boosts Walker Even Further, Virtually Likely Guaranteeing a Win without a Runoff Once RPV are informed of a Trump endorsement for Walker, his share of the vote improves by double- digits, going from 54% to 67%, all but ensuring he could avoid a runoff in the primary. Nearly all the picked-up votes come among initial undecideds, a big pool of low-hanging fruit that could guarantee Walker makes it to the general. If you knew that, President Donald Trump endorsed and fully supported Herschel Walker for U.S. Senator and the Republican primary for Senate were held today, which ONE of the following candidates would you vote for? (READ AND RANDOMIZE NAMES) Initial Informed Net Shift Hershel Walker 54 67 +13 Gary Black 5 4 -1 Buddy Carter 3 4 +1 Kelvin King 2 1 -1 Latham Saddler 1 1 - Undecided 35 23 -12 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 500 likely 2022 Republican primary election voters from August 11-12th, 2021 in Georgia. The interviews were split 35% cell phone/35% SMS to web/30% landline phone, using live operators for the cell phone and landline phone portions. Geography was matched to past voter turnout in recent midterm elections. Gender, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file and exit poll data. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known voters and new registrants since the 2020 general election. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 500 voters is ±4.38%. KEY DEMOGRAPHICS Party Affiliation Gender Republican 75% MALE 50% Independent 20% FEMALE 50% Democrat 1% Female, working outside the home 26% Other (SPECIFY) 3% Female, homemaker 23% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) 1% Female/ReFused 1% Race/Ethnicity DMA/Key County White 93% Atlanta 64% African American/Black 2% - Cobb 7% Latino/Hispanic 1% - Gwinnett 6% Asian American 1% - Fulton 6% Other (DO NOT READ) 3% - Forsyth 4% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) <1% - Rest of DMA 41% Macon 7% Age Savannah 7% Augusta – Aiken 6% Albany, GA 4% 18-44 20% Chattanooga 3% 45-54 21% Columbus, GA 3% 55-64 25% Jacksonville 3% 65-74 19% Tallahassee – Thomasville 2% 75+ 14% Greeneville – Spartanburg – 1% Refused (DO NOT READ) 1% Asheville – Anderson Dothan <1% Education High School or less 23% Some College 33% 4-Year College degree+ 44% DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) <1% .