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Massachusetts Institute of Technology MAXIM PINKOVSKIY [email protected] MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY OFFICE CONTACT INFORMATION HOME CONTACT INFORMATION MIT Department of Economics 100 Memorial Drive, Apt. 8-2C 50 Memorial Drive, E52-310 Cambridge, MA 02142 Cambridge, MA 02142-1347 Home: 617-945-2630 617-253-3364 Mobile: 718-687-3493 [email protected] http://economics.mit.edu/grad/maxim09 MIT PLACEMENT OFFICER MIT PLACEMENT ADMINISTRATOR Professor Ben Olken [email protected] Ms. Beata Shuster [email protected] 617-253-6833 617-324-5857 DOCTORAL Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) STUDIES PhD, Economics, Expected completion June 2013 DISSERTATION: “Essays in Public Finance and Political Economy” DISSERTATION COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES Professor Daron Acemoglu Professor Jerry Hausman MIT Department of Economics MIT Department of Economics 50 Memorial Drive, E52-380B 50 Memorial Drive, E52-271D Cambridge, MA 02142 Cambridge, MA 02142 617-253-1927 617-253-3644 [email protected] [email protected] Professor Amy Finkelstein MIT Department of Economics 50 Memorial Drive, E52-383B Cambridge, MA 02142 617-253-4149 [email protected] PRIOR Columbia University, B.A., summa cum laude, Economics-Mathematics, 2008 EDUCATION CITIZENSHIP USA GENDER: M YEAR OF BIRTH 1986 LANGUAGES English (native), Russian (native), French (advanced), Spanish (working) FIELDS Primary Fields: Public Economics, Political Economy Secondary Fields: Health Economics, Econometrics TEACHING Teaching Assistantship at MIT: EXPERIENCE Game Theory (advanced undergraduate, 14.12), Fall 2011. MAXIM PINKOVSKIY OCTOBER 2012 -- PAGE 2 RELEVANT Research Assistant to Professor James Snyder at MIT, June-August 2009 POSITIONS Research Assistant to Professor Daron Acemoglu at MIT, January 2009 Research Assistant to Professor Xavier Sala-i-Martin at Columbia, 2006-2008 Research Assistant to Professor Michael Woodford at Columbia, Spring 2007 Research Assistant to Drs. Hamid Mehran and Kenneth Garbade, at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Summer 2006 FELLOWSHIPS, Humane Studies Fellow, 2010-2012 HONORS, AND NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, 2008-2011 AWARDS Paul and Daisy Soros Fellowship for New Americans, 2008-2009 International Atlantic Economic Society (IAES) EconSources.com Best Undergraduate Paper Competition Winner, 2008. MIT Presidential Fellow, 2008 Columbia College Valedictorian, 2008 Sanford S. Parker Prize (outstanding economics student at Columbia), 2008 Romine Prize, Best Honors Thesis in Economics, Columbia, 2008 Junior Phi Beta Kappa, 2008 PUBLICATIONS “World Welfare is Rising: Estimation Using Nonparametric Bounds on Welfare Measures”, Journal of Public Economics 97: no.1 176-195, January 2013 I take a new approach to measuring world inequality and welfare over time by constructing robust bounds for these series instead of imposing parametric assumptions to compute point estimates. I derive sharp bounds on the Atkinson inequality index that are valid for any underlying distribution of income conditional on given fractile shares and Gini coefficient. While the bounds are too wide to reject the hypothesis that world inequality may have risen, I show that world welfare rose unambiguously between 1970 and 2006. This conclusion is valid for alternative methods of dealing with countries and years with missing surveys, alternative survey harmonization procedures, alternative GDP series, or if the inequality surveys used systematically underreport the income of the very rich, or suffer from nonresponse bias. “Rational Inattention and Choice Under Risk: Explaining Violations of Expected Utility Through a Shannon Entropy Formulation of the Costs of Rationality” Atlantic Economic Journal 37, no. 1: 99-112, May 2009 (Winner of IAES Competition) I propose a model of stochastic choice in which the error term is derived from a maximizing framework in which it is costly for agents to make decisions optimally. I argue that the model has testable implications, and is closely related to other models used in the literature on choice under risk. I test this model over experimental data, replicate some conclusions of the existing MAXIM PINKOVSKIY OCTOBER 2012 -- PAGE 3 literature, and show this model to perform well against current models in use. RESEARCH “The Impact of the Managed Care Backlash on Health Care Costs” (Job PAPERS Market Paper) During the late 1990s, there was a substantial cultural, media and legal backlash against the cost-containment practices of managed care organizations (particularly, HMOs). Most states passed a variety of laws in this period that restricted the cost-cutting measures that managed care firms could use. I exploit panel variation in the passage of these regulations across states and over time to investigate the effects of the managed care backlash, as proxied by this legislation, on health care cost growth. I find that the backlash had a strong effect on health care costs, and can statistically explain most of the rise in health spending as a share of U.S. GDP between 1993 and 2005 (amounting to 1% - 1.5% of GDP). I also investigate the effects of the managed care backlash on intensity of care, hospital salaries and technology adoption. I conclude that managed care was largely successful in keeping health care costs on a sustainable path relative to the size of the economy. “Economic Discontinuities at Borders: Evidence from Satellite Data on Lights at Night” Using a new methodology for the computation of standard errors in a regression discontinuity design with infill asymptotics, I document the existence of discontinuities in the levels and growth rates of the amount of satellite-recorded light per capita across national borders. Both the amount of light per capita and its growth rate increase discontinuously upon crossing a border from a poorer (or lower-growing) into a richer (or higher-growing) country. I argue that these discontinuities form lower bounds for discontinuities in economic activity across borders, which suggests the importance of national-level variables, such as institutions and culture, relative to local-level variables, such as geography, for the determination of income and growth. I do not find commensurate discontinuities in local public goods at borders. Institutions of private property are helpful in explaining differences in growth between two countries at their joint border, while contracting institutions, local and national levels of public goods, as well as education and cultural variables do not explain border differences in output. Finally, I show that neither the magnitude of discontinuities at borders nor the variables that affect border discontinuities are changed by accounting for the economic proximity of the bordering countries. “Voter Learning in State Primary Elections”, with Shigeo Hirano, Gabriel Lenz and James Snyder. Using both existing polling data and data collected from our own internet survey, we find evidence that voters learn about the ideologies of candidates during statewide primary election campaigns and this learning MAXIM PINKOVSKIY OCTOBER 2012 -- PAGE 4 affects their voting decisions. We also find evidence that voters are more likely to learn when a substantial ideological gap exists or when they have incorrect beliefs or low information about the candidates' ideologies at the start of the campaign. We find this effect only for open seat senate and gubernatorial races and not for down-ballot races or races with an incumbent. “African Poverty is Falling…Much Faster than You Think!” with Xavier Sala-i-Martin. NBER Working Paper #15775 We estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality and welfare indices for African countries for the period 1970-2006. We show that: (1) African poverty is falling and is falling rapidly; (2) if present trends continue, the poverty Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people with incomes less than one dollar a day will be achieved on time; (3) the growth spurt that began in 1995 decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it; (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. “Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income” with Xavier Sala-i-Martin. NBER Working Paper #15433 We use a parametric method to estimate the income distribution for 191 countries between 1970 and 2006. We estimate global and regional poverty rates, counts, income inequality and welfare. Using the official $1/day line, we estimate that world poverty rates have fallen by 80% between 1970 and 2006. Correspondingly, the total number of poor has fallen by 617 million people over this period. Our estimates of global count in 2006 are much smaller than found by other researchers. We find that various measures of global inequality have declined substantially and measures of global welfare increased significantly. Finally, we show that our results are robust to sensitivity tests involving functional forms, data sources for the largest countries, methods of interpolating and extrapolating missing data, and possible sources of survey misreporting. RESEARCH IN “Leaving Democracy: A Path Dependent Model of Regime Transitions” PROGRESS A surprising feature of many transitions from democracy to nonrepresentative forms of government is that they occur with substantial popular support. Using a Baron-Ferejohn model of legislative bargaining over the allocation of tax revenue to public goods or personalized transfers, I show that public
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