Transition Engineering: Building a Sustainable Future Is a Method- Ology for Working on Wicked Problems
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Transition Engineering Transition Engineering Building a Sustainable Future Susan Krumdieck University of Canterbury, New Zealand CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2020 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed on acid-free paper International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-367-34126-8 (Paperback) 978-0-367-36243-0 (Hardback) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright. com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Dedication This book is dedicated to the memory and life’s work of Professor Frank Kreith, who was a child-survivor of the Nazi holocaust. CRC Press Professor Kreith immigrated to the United States and became a Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 mechanical engineering professor. He made immense contributions Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 to the fields of heat transfer and solar energy. Professor Kreith © 2020 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC was active in the sustainable energy area, and he was passionate CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business about the prospects for the energy transition. I met Professor No claim to original U.S. Government works Kreith in 2011 at a dinner party in Boulder, Colorado. We started Printed on acid-free paper a discussion about sustainable energy that lasted for 8 years. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-367-34126-8 (Paperback) He felt that politics and economics had somehow diverted the 978-0-367-36243-0 (Hardback) workforce of change and that the promise of sustainable energy This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts was being lost. He understood the premise that the change of have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers perspective in the engineering professions described in Transition have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize Engineering: Building a Sustainable Future could be the key, the to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. missing component of the energy transition. This energized me Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, to put these ideas together in a way that could be quickly learned transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter and put into action. I started exploring this Transition Engineering invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. perspective about 30 years ago. My students and colleagues have For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright. demonstrated how this approach works. But it wasn’t until Professor com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Kreith said, ‘I think you have found the key!’ that I started to Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the think of Transition Engineering as an inevitable evolution of our CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. professional engineering capabilities and started teaching about it. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................ xiii Introduction ............................................................................................................xvii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................xxi About the Author ................................................................................................. xxiii Chapter 1 The Mega-Problems of Unsustainability ..............................................1 1.1 Introduction: The Mega-Problems ..............................................2 1.1.1 The Mega-Problems: Greenhouse Gas Accumulation and Oil Supply ..........................................2 1.2 The Problem with Sustainable Development: It Isn’t Working .................................................................... 3 1.2.1 A Short World History of Development ..........................3 1.2.2 Sustainable Development .................................................5 1.2.3 Engineering and Sustainable Development .....................8 1.2.4 Challenging the Idea of Sustainable Growth ...................9 1.2.5 Prevent What Is Preventable: The Safety Engineering Story ............................................................9 1.3 Unsustainable Pollution: Global Warming and Climate Change ......................................................................................12 1.3.1 Understanding the 2°C Failure Limit ............................ 17 1.4 Oil Supply and Peak Oil ........................................................... 18 1.4.1 The OPEC Oil Embargo and the 1970s Energy Crisis .... 20 1.4.2 Oil and the Economy ..................................................... 21 1.5 Discussion .................................................................................23 1.5.1 The Monkey Trap ...........................................................23 Chapter 2 Problems of Unsustainability .............................................................25 2.1 Review of Sustainability Principles ..........................................26 2.1.1 Management of Common Resources .............................26 2.1.2 Environmental Regulations ...........................................27 2.1.3 Sustainable Business Practices ......................................28 2.1.3.1 Business Transition Strategies ........................29 2.1.4 Policy and Politics of Sustainability ..............................30 2.1.5 Innovation Needed to Address Unsustainable Energy .....31 2.2 Problems of Carrying Capacity and Resource Constraints ......32 2.2.1 The Problem of Exponential Growth ............................. 33 2.2.2 The Population Problem ................................................34 2.2.3 Unsustainable Demand on Freshwater ...........................37 2.2.4 Food Supply Issues and the Biofuel Problems ...............38 2.2.5 The Problem of Lifestyle Expectations..........................40 vii viii Contents 2.3 Water and Land Requirements for Energy Production .............42 2.3.1 Water Use for Electricity Generation .............................42 2.3.2 Water Use for Fuel Production .......................................44 2.3.3 Land Area for Electric Power Plants .............................44 2.4 The Problems of Mineral Resource Depletion and Issues with Recycling...........................................................................45 2.4.1 Modelling of Depletion ..................................................46 2.4.2 Mining............................................................................ 47 2.4.3 Critical Materials for Renewable Energy and Efficiency .......................................................................49