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CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. 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Serena C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Mexico Is Not Colombia Alternative Historical Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations Supporting Case Studies Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Chad C. Serena Research for this report was sponsored by a grant from a private foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8444-6 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover: AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface The full scope and details of the challenges posed by Mexico’s vio- lent drug-trafficking organizations are not well understood, and opti- mal strategies to combat these organizations have not been identified. The associated security challenges are not confined to Mexico; indeed, many have spilled over into neighboring countries, including the United States. Scholars often compare these security challenges with those faced by Colombia, but there are vocal critics of this approach. If Mexico is not like Colombia, what is it like? Clearly, there are historical security challenges (and corresponding resolutions) that are germane to contemporary Mexico. To answer the question posed above, it will be important to evaluate the historical record, identify the correct com- parisons, and make the correct inferences based on those comparisons. This study sought to make better historical comparisons with Mexico by identifying cases of “resource” insurgency (those in which insur- gents do not seek to control the government but simply to eliminate state interference with their exploitation of resources), cases of warlord- ism or ungoverned territories, and cases of efforts to combat organized crime. This report presents the case studies that supported this research effort. A companion report, Mexico Is Not Colombia: Alternative Historical Analogies for Responding to the Challenge of Violent Drug- Trafficking Organizations, RR-548/1, offers an overview of the study’s methodology, including case selection and the analytic framework that guided the research. It also summarizes the primary findings from the comparison cases and puts forward several recommendations that iii iv Mexico Is Not Colombia: Case Studies Mexico’s government could pursue in an effort to address and resolve its current security challenges. That volume is available at http://www. rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR548z1.html. Readers of this series may also be interested in the related RAND report The Challenge of Violent Drug-Trafficking Organizations: An Assessment of Mexican Security Based on Existing RAND Research on Urban Unrest, Insurgency, and Defense-Sector Reform, by Christopher Paul, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, and Colin P. Clarke, MG-1125-OSD, 2011. Research for the report was sponsored by a grant from a pri- vate foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Divi- sion (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figure and Tables ...............................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .............................................................xxix Abbreviations .................................................................. xxxi CHaptER ONE Colombia (1994–2010) .......................................................... 1 Conflict and Violence in Colombia .............................................. 2 Explaining the Outbreak of Violence.......................................... 3 The Illicit Economy, Crime, and Violence .................................... 4 State Failure and Weak Governance ........................................... 6 What Was Done to Improve the Situation? .................................. 7 How Did It End Up? ..........................................................12 Similarities and Differences Between Colombia and Mexico................13 Violence ..........................................................................14 Indiscriminate Mayhem or “Anomic Violence” .............................15 Traditional Threat/Insurgency ................................................16 Ethnically Motivated Violence ................................................17 Lack of Economic Opportunities .............................................17 Weapon Availability ............................................................18 Competition over a Resource ..................................................19 Ungoverned Spaces .............................................................19 State/Institutional Weakness ................................................. 20 Patronage/Corruption ......................................................... 20 Lessons for Mexico ............................................................... 20 v vi Mexico Is Not Colombia: Case Studies CHaptER TWO Peru (1980–1992) ............................................................... 23 Conflict and Violence in Peru ...................................................25 Peru’s Informal Economy and the Coca Industry ......................... 27 Sendero Luminoso ..............................................................29 Sendero’s Violence ............................................................. 34 The State and Peruvian Forces in the 1980s ................................ 38 The Fujimori Government .................................................... 42 What Was Done to Improve the Situation? .................................45 How Did It End Up? .......................................................... 46 Similarities and Differences Between Peru and Mexico ..................... 46 Violence ......................................................................... 46 Indiscriminate Mayhem or “Anomic Violence” .............................47 Traditional Threat/Insurgency ................................................47 Ethnically Motivated Violence

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