Barton Deakin Brief: 2019 NSW State Election 28 February 2019 The 2019 New South Wales (NSW) State Election will be held on Saturday 23 March 2019, with the incumbent Liberal-National Coalition Government seeking a third term in office following its wins at the 2011 and 2015 state elections. The Coalition is led by the Premier and Leader of the NSW Liberal Party, the Hon Gladys Berejiklian MP. The Opposition is led by the Leader of the NSW Labor Party, the Hon Michael Daley MP. The NSW Government will officially entered caretaker mode on 1 March 2019. This Barton Deakin Brief previews the 2019 NSW State Election. Electoral System Under the NSW Constitution, elections are held on the fourth Saturday in March every four years. NSW is divided into 93 electorates (comprehensive electoral maps can be accessed here), with one representative elected from each electorate to the Legislative Assembly, the Lower House. The 42 members of the Legislative Council, the Upper House, represent NSW as a whole across an eight-year term. At each State election, half these members retire and an election is held for 21 positions. NSW has compulsory voting. Optional preferential ballots are conducted in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly and across the entire State for the proportionally elected Legislative Council. Current Parliamentary Composition At the 2015 NSW State Election, the Liberal and National Parties (the “Coalition”) received 54.3% of the state-wide two-party preferred vote, winning 54 seats to the Labor Party’s 34 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The result represented a 9.9% swing to Labor since the 2011 election. As a result of resignations and by-elections since 2015, the Coalition now holds 51 seats in the Legislative Assembly (one safe Liberal seat of is vacant). Coalition defeats at the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections boosted the crossbench to seven members (including three Greens), with Labor holding its 34 seats. Majority government requires 47 seats. To view the 2019 NSW Electoral Pendulum depicting the margins of each seat, click here. In the Legislative Council, the Coalition currently holds 20 of 42 seats while the Labor Party holds 12 seats. 11 of the Coalition’s Upper House seats are up for re-election – this significant number is a legacy of the Coalition’s landslide win in 2011. If the Coalition wins the 2019 state election, in order to pass legislation, it will likely need to continue to negotiate in the Upper House with the Greens, Christian Democratic Party (CDP) and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) – and possibly One Nation – though with a smaller minority. The Greens hold four seats in the Legislative Council, while the CDP and SFF currently hold two seats each, Animal Justice one, and Independents two. The current composition of the NSW Parliament is summarised in the following table: Party Legislative Assembly Legislative Council Liberal/National Coalition 35/16 (51) 13/7 (20) Labor 34 12 Greens 3 5 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) 1 2 Christian Democratic Party (CDP) - 2 Animal Justice - 1 Independents 3 - Vacant 1 - Total: 93 42 By-elections Since the election of the Coalition Government in 2015 two of ten by-elections resulted in a change of party - Orange and Wagga-Wagga. A table summarising the results of these by-elections can be read below: By-election Former Party New Party New Seat Old Margin Date Member Affiliation Member Affiliation Margin Shooters, Scott National Philip Orange 12 Nov. 2016 Fishers and +21.7% +0.1% Barrett Party Donato Farmers Daryl Wagga-Wagga 8 Sep. 2018 Liberal Party Joe McGirr Independent +12.9% +9.6% Maguire Party Leaders Liberal Party – the Hon Gladys Berejiklian MP (Premier) The Hon Gladys Berejiklian MP was first elected to NSW State Parliament in March 2003 in the seat of Willoughby. She was elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party in January 2017 after the resignation of former Premier Mike Baird. Before entering politics, Ms Berejiklian worked as the General Manager, Youth Retail Banking and Government and Industry Affairs at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Ms Berejiklian first joined the Opposition Frontbench in 2005 as the Shadow Minister for Mental Health before serving as the Shadow Minister for Transport and Shadow Minister of Citizenship. During the O’Farrell Government and early in the Baird Government, Ms Berejiklian was the Minister for Transport (2011-2015). She was also Deputy Leader of the NSW Liberal Party between 2014 and 2017. In March 2015. Ms Berejiklian was appointed Treasurer by Premier Mike Baird and upon his retirement was elected Premier on 19 January 2017. Labor Party – the Hon Michael Daley (Opposition Leader) The Hon Michael Daley was elected Leader of the Opposition on 10 November 2018, replacing former leader Luke Foley who resigned in November 2018. Before entering politics, he spent 13 years working as a Customs Officer with the Australian Customs Service. Later studying law, Mr Daley gained his Diploma of Law in 1997, Graduate Diploma in Legal Practice and was admitted to the Supreme Court of New South Wales as a legal practitioner in 1998. He was a Councillor at Randwick City Council in 1995 and served as Deputy Mayor from 2000 to 2004. Mr Daley was elected to represent Maroubra for the ALP in 2005 following the retirement from politics of former Premier Bob Carr. He served on the backbench until the elevation of Nathan Rees as Premier of New South Wales in September 2008 when Daley became the Minister for Roads. Daley held this portfolio until a cabinet reshuffle in September 2009 where he was subsequently appointed Minister for Police and Minister for Finance. When Kristina Keneally became Premier in December 2009 he remained as Minister for Police and Minister for Finance until the 2011 state election. Following Labor’s election loss, Mr Daley was appointed as Shadow Treasurer and Shadow Minister for Finance and Services for the next three years. Since 2014 Mr Daley has held the shadow portfolios of Police and Emergency Services, Roads, Roads and Freight, Treasurer, Western Sydney, and before recently becoming Opposition Leader, the Shadow Minister for Gaming and Racing and Shadow Minister for Planning and Infrastructure (2016-2018). NSW Nationals – the Hon John Barilaro (Deputy Premier) The Hon John Barilaro MP was first elected to NSW Parliament as the Member for Monaro in 2011. He is the Leader of the NSW Nationals and Deputy Premier of NSW. Prior to politics he managed his family’s business, Ryhelo Pty Ltd. He later attained a Certificate IV in Construction and Building Services, and Certificate IV in Quantative and Tendering, Housing Industry Association, 2003. Mr Barilaro served as an independent councillor of Queanbeyan City Council in 2008 and served on that Council until he ran for his current seat in 2011. Following his election in 2011 Mr Barilaro held a variety of committee positions before becoming Minister for Regional Tourism in 2014. In 2015 he was promoted and became the Minister for Small Business, Minister for Skills and the Minister for Regional Development – portfolios he still holds. He was elected leader of the Nationals on 15 November 2016 following the resignation of former leader Troy Grant. Retiring Members of NSW Parliament In the lead up to the 2019 NSW State Election, 11 sitting members have announced that they will not be recontesting their seats. This includes: • Five sitting members of the Liberal Party: o The Hon Greg Aplin MP (Albury); o The Hon Pru Goward MP (Goulburn) o The Hon Chris Patterson MP (Camden) o The Hon Glenn Brookes MP (East Hills); and o The Hon Jai Rowell MP (Wollondilly). • Four sitting members of the Nationals Party: o The Hon Andrew Fraser MP (Coffs Harbour); o The Hon Troy Grant MP (Dubbo) o The Hon Kevin Humphries (Barwon); and o The Hon Thomas George MP (Lismore). • Two sitting members of the Labor Party: o The Hon Ernest Wong MLC; and o The Hon Luke Foley MP (Auburn). One member of the Legislative Council is seeking to move from the Upper House to the Lower House at the 2019 NSW State Election: • The Hon Lynda Voltz MLC will be contesting the seat of Auburn for the Labor Party. Key Election Policies and Initiatives Key government election policies and initiatives are identified below. The appendix lists substantive Coalition and Labor announcements as at 28 February 2019. Transport and Infrastructure The Coalition Government is progressing in implementing its Future Transport 2056 Strategy by making significant investments in roads and transport infrastructure as part of Rebuilding NSW – the $20 billion infrastructure program. The program has already seen projects such as the North-West Metro and Northern Beaches B-Line completed. Key election initiatives include: • $7 billion Bankstown Line Metro upgrade; • $480 million for Western Sydney (Mamre and Mulgoa) roads; • $300 million to ease congestion and improve safety along major arterial roads in Prospect and Kellyville; and Health The Coalition Government has made significant new commitments to the NSW health system with an additional focus on Western Sydney and the regions. Announcements include: • $2.8 billion for an extra 5000 nurses and midwives to improve nurse-patient ratios, split between metro and regional areas. Beyond the more than 100 hospitals and other health facilities built or upgraded since 2011, the Coalition Government has committed to the upgrade of further hospitals, including: • $864 million for major upgrades to St George ($385 million) and Ryde ($479 million) hospitals; and • $434 million for redevelopment of Shoalhaven Hospital. Education As part of the Coalition Government’s $6 billion education infrastructure blitz, 170 schools are set to be built or revamped over four years with 17 delivered thus far.