e-newsletter of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Volume 6, Issue 1 First quarter 2012

ICLR Board of Directors The writing is on the wall for future wildfire Kathy Bardswick (Chair) The Co-operators risk in Canada Barbara Bellissimo State Farm ICLR launched its wildfire research Our surprise last year was Charmaine Dean program more than a decade ago. that a large loss was experienced in Western At that time the largest wildfire loss such a small community. The major Andy Hrymak for our industry was less than $10 wildfire losses for insurance Western million in claims paid, nevertheless companies in the United States and Paul Kovacs the Institute warned that it was Australia typically involve fire ICLR inevitable that our industry would burning into larger communities. But Sharon Ludlow experience a $1 billion loss event. Slave Lake had a population of Swiss Re Deborah Moor In 2003, the fire on the edge of 7,000. Indeed there are hundreds of Lloyd’s Canada Kelowna had the potential to grow communities like Slave Lake Brian Timney into a billion-dollar loss, but was put located near forests across Western out shortly after it came into the city. Canada. Many of these Last May a fire near Slave Lake communities have valuable grew into a $700 million loss when it commercial facilities for mining, destroyed one-third of the town. We forestry, oil production or tourism. remain convinced that our industry For example, several large fires will experience a $1 billion wildfire were burning last year near Fort loss event. Indeed such losses may McMurray where significant oil become regular events. production facilities are located. ►

Inside this issue:

Wildfire risk cont . 2

Reducing damage 3/5 to houses in storms

Heatwaves 6/10

Swiss Re sigma on 10/11 natural catastrophes in 2011 The writing is on the wall for future wildfire risk in Canada cont ... 2

Russia, Brazil and Canada have the United States and Australia, risk.” the largest forests in the world, and should not be dismissed as The Canadian insurance and considerable experience with one-off events. industry has the rare opportunity wildfire. Each year thousands of ICLR concentrates its to approach the peril of wildfire Canadians are evacuated hazard research on four areas: much differently than it has because they are at risk from water, wind, earthquake and approached the hazards of water wildfire. Moreover, the research wildfire, and this is reflected in and wind, i.e. it has the chance to evidence is overwhelming that the organization’s five year essentially start ‘from the the forest area burned in Canada strategic plan, which was written beginning.’ will increase significantly over the and released prior to the Slave The industry can’t turn next few decades. Lake fire (see www.iclr.org). the clocks back and start again During Canada’s early Of wildfire, the plan on the underwriting of wind- history it was common that notes: “ICLR will…actively work related risk. And while it may uncontrolled fire in the forest to assess the growing risk of a wish it could do so with water would destroy urban centres. wildfire destroying an urban area losses, which have proven to Urban fires also spread into in Canada. Billion-dollar loss become a problem, too much of forests. Indeed some of the events have increased in that has flowed under the bridge. world’s largest fires on record frequency and severity in the However with just two were in Canada, including the United States, Australia and major wildfire losses on the Miramichi Fire in 1825. Over the Europe, and could strike in books in recent times and past eight or nine decades, Canada. The Institute will warnings of a future with more however, we have aggressively continue to work with the wildfire and larger wildfires in this been working to suppress fires. research community, the country, now is the time to really Indeed, 90% of fires in Canada Canadian Forest Service, consider the hazard, and are now put out soon after they provincial governments and endeavour to understand wildfire start, and many of the municipal leaders. In particular and the broader issues that uncontrolled fires are in remote we will seek to increase the inform wildfire risk, such as land/ areas where a decision is made awareness of the insurance forest management, the role of to allow them to burn. industry about the increasing risk and interplay between Canada’s success in of loss and make established governments of all levels, suppressing wildfires at risk of tools, like FireSmart , available to increasing development into the burning into cities comes at champion loss prevention. wildland/urban interface, and considerable expense. Some “Notwithstanding the climate change, among them. years governments across 2003 wildfire season in British If the industry fails to do Canada spend more than one Columbia, the Institute is of the so now, it could very well find billion dollars on wildland fire opinion that the Canadian itself in position ten or twenty suppression. The expectation of insurance industry may be too years out where stakeholders are more forest area burned will complacent about the potential sitting around a table talking require a doubling of spending on for a major wildfire loss in the not- about the wildfire insurance crisis fire suppression over the next few too-distant future. Hence, in Canada and what to do about decades to maintain the current whenever possible, ICLR works it. record of loss prevention. And to get messaging out that Wildfires and their this concern is growing at a time insurers need to consider the growing potential to devastate when governments seek to eventuality, first by becoming urban centres is an area of restore their fiscal health by aware of the risk and of growing concern. It is a risk that constraining spending. There is a vulnerable areas of the country has spread closer and closer to risk that the required funds will and, second, by including wildfire the urban interface in recent not be provided to maintain in pricing relevant risks…The years. current levels of protection. Institute is also working to spread These are some of the In these changing times it awareness within the insurance ideas that can be taken from the remains a challenge to get the industry of the Canadian Wildland recent ICLR workshop on wildfire. Canadian insurance industry’s Fire Strategy (CWFS) and the The Institute remains committed attention on wildfire risk. The important need to get funding for to work with our member insurers losses our industry experienced the plan as soon as possible, as and other partners to better in Kelowna and Slave Lake well as awareness with regard to understand and manage this should be viewed as a warning the availability of and need for threat. that we will soon need to manage better tools (including maps) to this risk as actively as insurers in monitor and assess wildland fire Reducing damage to houses in storms 3 An evaluation of the performance of roof sheathing By Gregory A. Kopp, Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Western University Our post-storm damage building. It has been observed standards which may over- investigations have found that that the loss of a single sheet of estimate the capacity or under- roof systems are vulnerable to plywood, can allow so much estimate the load. The team of researchers at the University of Western Ontario’s Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes (IRLBH) recently conducted a detailed study to determine roof sheathing performance under wind loads experienced in severe wind storms. In order to assess the wind loads on roof sheathing, wind tunnel studies of more than 40 different houses were conducted at the Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory (BLWTL). The key parameters Roof damage as the result of a tornado in water into the house that the effecting wind loads on houses Saskatchewan. structure becomes an insurance write-off. Thus, keeping all extreme winds. Residential, building components intact, even wood-framed houses appear to those which may not be critical be particularly vulnerable. Once a structurally, is important to component fails, it can become mitigating overall losses. wind-borne and impact a One of the challenges is downwind structure, which, if it that sheathing is often observed impacts a window or door, will to fail at wind speeds below those cause it to fail. This leads to they are to be designed for. internal pressurization, which can Several factors can contribute to cause further failures, particularly this under-performance, such as Photograph of the different nails used in to the roof components and (i) improper selection of the roof sheathing study. From left to structure. Failures of the building materials, (ii) improper right: twist-shank nail, HurriQuake® nail, envelope increase losses by installation, (iii) degradation of adhesive coated ring-shank nail, another allowing wind and rain into the materials due to aging or lack of ring-shank nail, and a staple. are the terrain and surroundings, number of storeys, roof shape, roof slope, and whether or not there is a large opening on the walls (caused by failure of a window or door). So, in our study we considered four different suburban neighbourhood housing patterns, houses with 1, 2 and 3 storeys, and the effects of gable and hip roofs with slopes varying from 4:12 to 12:12. To determine how well sheathing could withstand such loads, more than 200 full-scale tests of sheathing were conducted on a wide range of sheathing configurations. Sheathing failure caused by inadequate durability within the intended life These included examining the hold-down strength, likely missing nails or span, and (iv) potentially effects of different types of nails, deteriorated materials, in Vaughan, ► Ontario. inappropriate prescriptive design nailing patterns, missing Reducing damage to houses in storms cont ... 4 nails, and the use of plywood versus OSB. What follows gives a “flavour” of the results and a listing of the main conclusions; to obtain copies of the detailed studies, please contact the author.

Wind loads on sheathing

The main conclusions from our wind tunnel study are as follows: Range of peak pressure coefficients for all houses embedded in typical sheathing panels on a roof as a function 1) Hip roofs generally tend to suburban neighbourhoods. of roof slope, upstream terrain and eaves have less severe loads on 5) The wind load provisions in height for single, isolated houses. roof sheathing than gable building codes are generally roofs. The reason for this is adequate, though not perfect gun-nails have clipped because the highest (particularly for gable roofs), heads, like the “coated ring sheathing loads occur for for houses embedded within shank” nail in the current winds parallel to the ridge suburban neighbourhoods. study. This reduces the near the gable ends. Hip However, they are not capacity of such nails roofs mitigate this to some adequate for the case of dramatically (see figure extent, and their worst loads isolated houses in flat, open below). Increased nail head tend to occur on panels terrain. size leads directly to adjacent to the hips instead. increased capacity 2) For hip roofs, the higher the Response of sheathing to suggesting that the capacity house, the larger the wind extreme wind loads of some fasteners may be loads on the sheathing. For limited by the panel material gable roofs, the eave height The main conclusions of our full- strength without further does not matter as much. scale sheathing capacity study increases in head size. 3) Roof slope is not the critical are as follows: 2) Plywood is observed to parameter for wind loads on increase the capacities by 30 residential roof sheathing. 1) The nail head size (area of – 40% compared to OSB 4) Surrounding houses in a the head less the area of the panels for both twisted shank suburban neighbourhood shank) is a critical parameter nails (which fail tend to reduce the wind loads for determining the capacity predominantly by pull-out, substantially compared to the of the sheathing panel. Some i.e., the nail is the ► building code’s “design case” for engineered structures, which is based on a single, isolated building in a flat, open terrain. There are two reasons for this: (i) reduced wind speeds caused by the rougher terrain (suburban terrain versus open terrain), and (ii) direct shielding effects. Thus, farm houses have greater vulnerability than houses backing onto large school yards with few trees in a suburban neighbourhood; but the houses adjacent to the school yard also have measurably greater vulnerability than do the Average failure load for nailed OSB panels as a function of nail head area. Reducing damage to houses in storms cont ... 5

weak link) and the high capacity ring shank nails (which fail by pulling through the sheathing material, i.e., the panel material is the weak link). 3) Failure is always observed to originate at the weakest nail in the central portion of the panel where the tributary area is largest for each nail. For nails with the typical pattern, the spacing is six inches on the edge trusses and 12 inches for the interior trusses on the panel. Thus, for trusses on the normal spacing of two feet on centre, Cumulative distribution functions for there are only nine nails in to the short duration (typically plywood panels fastened with twist-shank the interior of the panel, and less than 0.5 seconds) peak and HurriQuake® nails under ramp loads, it is these nails which are pressures. For twist-shank nails, including nailing patterns with “missing” responsible for holding the the failure progression is nails. panel in place for high wind incremental, with nail uplift. However, there is a displacements accumulating in failure. Thus, storm duration sharing of load from one nail slips of 1-2 mm at some plays a significant role in both to the adjacent ones as it fasteners for the damaging types of failure progression, slips so that the capacity of peaks. Once there is sufficient which is not accounted for in the panel is above that of the damage accumulation so that existing loss/risk models. ► weakest nail (even when the there is a failure at one fastener, weakest nail is a “missing” failure of the entire panel follows nail). Changing the nail relatively quickly. For nails with pattern to “6/6” will double the ring shanks, the failure capacity of the sheathing, mechanism is more sudden, adding a very minimal cost to although there is some damage the installation. accumulation at the weakest 4) Missing nails obviously fasteners so that the largest peak reduce the capacity of pressures do not always lead to panels. However, the weakest panels fastened with twist shank nails have only a slightly higher capacity than panels with two missing twist shank nails. Missing HurriQuake® ring-shank nails have a larger effect on panel capacity, such that if two of these nails are missing, the capacity becomes very similar to panels fastened with twist shank nails that also have two missing. Thus, quality control is particularly important to enforce in order to gain the benefit offered by engineered ring shank nails. 5) Under fluctuating wind loads, Incremental damage of sheathing the failure progression is due fastened with twisted nails during a dynamic wind load test. Heat wave 6 Vulnerability and risk reduction in a changing climate By Dan Sandink, Manager, Resilient Communities and Research, ICLR

Extreme temperatures have been which mortality increases more in temperature. Social isolation is shown to result in increased dramatically, have also been often identified as a significant incidences of mortality and identified. A temperature risk factor, and is related to living morbidity, and cities across the threshold of 36.5°C in Madrid, alone, being single, widowed or world have been subject to Spain has been reported; for divorced and not leaving home extreme heat events that have every 1°C rise in temperature on a daily basis. resulted in perhaps 100s of above this threshold, there is a Physiological factors add thousands of deaths in the 21 st rise in mortality of 28.4%. 3 To to the vulnerability of elderly century. Estimates of the number counteract these hazards and individuals. Adaptation to heat of deaths caused during the vulnerabilities, there have been depends on the body’s ability to western European heat-wave of attempts to mitigate the impacts cool itself through sweat 2003 range from 25,000 to of heat-wave impacts on production, increased cardiac 70,000, with an estimated 15,000 vulnerable populations, through output and redirection of blood deaths in France. A heat-wave in both “active” and “passive” risk flow to the skin. When the U.S. in 1980 resulted in 5,000 reduction options. environmental temperature to 10,000 deaths and a 1988 exceeds core body temperature, event in the U.S. resulted in Factors affecting vulnerability sweat production is the primary 10,000 excess deaths. The means of losing heat. However, Canadian Disaster Database Internal vulnerability factors these responses can be inhibited reported six heat-event disasters Generally, morbidity and in elderly people due to chronic in the country since 1900, all of mortality risk associated with illnesses or the impacts of which resulted in a number of heat-waves is dependent on age, diuretic and anti-cholinergic deaths. The most severe of these race, sex, class, home drugs. Further, limited heat events occurred in 1936, when characteristics, access to air tolerance in the elderly can be 1,180 deaths occurred across the conditioning, general health and exacerbated by poor aerobic country. A 2009 heat event in living in an urban area. fitness and chronic health Vancouver and the Fraser area Vulnerability can be high for conditions. The side-effects of resulted in 134 deaths. Some children, pregnant women, prescription and over-the-counter researchers have argued that people of low socioeconomic drugs may increase risk by heat-waves are the leading cause status, those with chronic health affecting hydration status, of death from natural hazards conditions, including diabetes, electrolyte balance, worldwide. mobility and cognitive constraints. haemodynamics, thermo- Under changing climate However, older adults, for regulatory set point and conditions, an increase in example those over the age of 65 alertness. Some drugs, such as occurrence of death during the or 75 years, are considered anti-cholinergic drugs, can affect summer and a decrease in the particularly vulnerable to the sweat production. winter are expected, with an impacts of heat-waves. Indeed, Replenishment of fluids lost overall net increase in deaths individuals over the age of 65 through perspiration and from temperature extremes. comprised 72% of the deaths that exhalation of breath is highly Even slight increases in resulted from the 1995 Chicago important for thermoregulatory temperatures can have significant heat-wave. Factors that affect the compensation for high ambient impacts on heat-wave risk. In vulnerability of older adults temperatures. However, elderly Europe, it has been estimated include a higher likelihood of pre- individuals tend to have lower that for every 1°C increase in existing medical conditions (e.g., fluid intakes as they often exhibit apparent temperature 1 above cardiovascular and respiratory a decreased sense of thirst. normal thresholds, cities in illnesses) and limited mobility. northern regions could Diabetes, heart failure and External vulnerability factors experience a 3% increase in alcoholism have also been Acclimatization to higher mortality, and cities in southern identified as risk factors for temperatures due to the regions could experience a 2% increased morbidity and mortality geography of a city externally increase in mortality. In Québec, during heat-waves. Further affects the vulnerability of there has been an estimate of an vulnerability factors for the elderly populations to high temperatures. increase in mortality by 2% for include diminished perception, Physiological adaptations may every 1°C increase in apparent impairment of the occur for populations living in temperature. 2 Extreme thermoregulatory capacity, and warmer climates, and temperature thresholds, above reduced ability to detect changes acclimatization in these ► Heat wave cont ... 7 areas results in a requirement of as personal experience can have implemented these types of higher temperatures to cause reduce “apathy, indifference, programs. Interventions heat-related mortality. Timing of wishful thinking and denial,” associated with these systems heat-waves can also affect risk. which can affect perceptions and may include mass-media Populations are more vulnerable behaviours related to personal announcements, opening of to heat-health impacts when hazard mitigation, and can cooling centres, home visits and heat-waves occur earlier in the socially reinforce concern related other communication with warm season, such as in April or to hazards through friends, vulnerable populations including May, because they have not had neighbours and community home visits, and website issued the chance to acclimatize to hot networks. 4 bulletins. Common actions that weather over a summer season. are advised through active Further, lower mortality during Active and passive options for programs during heat-health winter due to milder winter heat wave risk reduction alerts include avoiding the temperatures can increase the outdoors or sun, keeping size of the at-risk population that Active options hydrated, staying in or seeking will be prone to summer heat- Mortality from heat out air conditioned environments, waves, and the occurrence of a events is largely preventable proper use of fans, avoiding heat-wave after absence of heat- through relatively simple overexertion, dressing waves over several years can measures, including increasing appropriately, and checking on increase mortality considerably. fluid intake and accessing air elderly or vulnerable neighbours. Individuals living in cities conditioning. Active programs Active mitigation options are at greater risk compared to encourage these types of are applied at the local level. rural residents, largely due to behaviours, and activate Indeed, it has been argued that urban heat-island (UHI) effects. immediately before or during these types of options should be In highly urbanized areas, heat-wave events. Active options tailored to suit specific local buildings and paved areas with often take the form of heat-health demographic, socioeconomic, low albedos absorb a greater warning systems, which are political and economic amount of the sun’s energy based on monitoring of weather circumstances. The need for local during the day and continue to systems to predict extreme heat solutions is compounded by the emit long-wave radiation at night, and warning residents of difference between cities and the increasing minimum upcoming periods of hot weather. impact of these differences on temperatures. High night-time These systems have been health, including geography, minimum temperatures can applied in many cities around the climate, wealth and various other significantly exacerbate health world, including Shanghai, factors. effects during heat-waves as Chicago, Philadelphia and The importance of there is no relief for individuals Dayton, Ohio, among other cities. localized development of heat- suffering from heat-health In Canada the Clean Air risk reduction programs is impacts during the evening and Partnership has reported that augmented due to the fact that following days will start with Toronto, Halton Region, the the temperature at which risk higher temperatures. Town of Oakville, Peel Region, reduction plans must be activated A further external the Town of Markham, Hamilton, vary depending on the vulnerability factor for extreme Kingston, London and Montréal geographical and climatological heat impacts is community characteristics of individual cities, experience with historical heat- which can affect acclimatization. wave events. It has frequently Further, threshold temperatures been discussed in hazard may also change over time due management literature that it is to demographic and only through a prior experience socioeconomic shifts in with an extreme event that communities. Thus, risk reduction communities and people learn to plans should be adjusted adapt to the impacts of the regularly to ensure that they events. In the case of heat-wave reflect the nature of the preparation, this phenomenon population within the city. was observed by the proliferation of heat-wave risk reduction Passive options programs following the European There are many passive heat-wave of 2003. A lack of options that are available to experience can also affect mitigate the impacts of extreme adaptive behaviour in individuals, heat. These measures are ► Heat wave cont ... 8 especially valuable in dense of the use of highly reflective benefits. Pervious surfaces, urban areas to mitigate UHI materials has been explored in which serve to absorb stormwater impacts, and can also serve to Los Angeles, California, where rather than shed it into increase health through access to use of such materials can reduce stormwater management facilities nutritious food, increase physical average temperatures by 1.5°C like storm sewer systems, serve activity and increase social and by as much as 3°C when multiple purposes including engagement. Several passive combined with other strategies, lowering air temperature levels measures are presented in table such as urban forestry. through evaporation of water. 1. A further straight-forward Pervious surfaces, which often means of reducing heat impacts take the form of vegetated Table 1: Example of passive mitigation is improving insulation in homes, ground cover, can also increase options 5 urban surface albedo. Mitigation strategy Measure Outcomes Green roofs Reduce heat-related illness, increase thermal comfort Reduction of waste heat Reduce heat-related illnesses and respiratory illnesses, Increased albedo from industrial processes, increase thermal comfort automotive sources, buildings LEED building Building materials Reduced heat-related illnesses compliance and design and air conditioning has also Shade trees around Improve thermal comfort, reduce reliance on A/C buildings been identified as a means of Improved home Increase thermal comfort, reduce heat-related illnesses mitigating UHI. For example, a insulation and respiratory disease Outdoor cooling, thermal comfort, reduce heat-related study by Ohashi et al . (2007) in Urban forestry illnesses, increase green spaces Tokyo, Japan found that waste Outdoor cooling through evaporation, improved thermal Land use change Pervious surfaces comfort, reduced heat-related illness, increased green heat generation by air space, Low Impact Development conditioners increased local Improve nutrition, increase exercise, reduce ‘lifestyle’ Community gardens diseases, increase community engagement temperatures by 1-2ºC. Efficient Increase exercise, reduce heat-related illness and Improve public transit building design and improved Transportation respiratory illnesses, increase community engagement systems Pedestrian, bike Increase exercise, reduce heat-related illness and public transportation systems can friendly transit respiratory illnesses, increase community engagement assist in reducing waste heat in Reduce waste heat Cooler ambient temperatures, reduced heat-wave events Community design to urban areas. The placing of Other approaches Reduce isolation for vulnerable elderly, reduce mortality promote social risk during heat events shade trees around buildings can interaction significantly reduce reliance on air conditioning, and can offset Green roofs are a measure that which can both help to keep cooling costs by 25-80% in some can be applied to reduce ambient buildings cool in the summer and circumstances. temperatures in urban areas. warmer in the winter. Leadership Improved public When used throughout an urban in Energy and Environmental transportation systems have area, green roofs can reduce Design (LEED) building practices been cited as long-term means of localized air temperatures and provide opportunities for reducing the impact of heat-wave can provide cooling capacity mitigating the UHI. LEED design events. Aside from reducing within buildings. Increasing includes various factors, including waste heat by decreasing vehicle albedo, or the reflective high-albedo and green roofs that use, public transit that supports properties of surfaces, can help can serve to mitigate UHI pedestrianism can increase reduce UHI effects and cool impacts. physical activity which may buildings. Man-made materials Urban forestry, which contribute to reduction of chronic have a much higher heat- includes preservation and diseases like diabetes. Improved capacity than natural surface restoration of trees, is a further public transit also reduces covers, including earth and option that can reduce the UHI. pollutants, including particulate plants, and are more able to Trees can shade urban surfaces matter. Similar outcomes can absorb, store and re-emit heat and through evapotranspiration result from promoting pedestrian throughout the day. Use of highly can dissipate energy that would and bike-friendly transit; however reflective building materials is an otherwise be absorbed into this approach may also increase option to increase albedo of surfaces and increased canopy social contact. Similarly, urban surfaces, and can reduce cover can reduce air community gardens provide ambient air temperature by 1-3.5° temperatures by 1-3°C. Further, opportunities to increase long- C. Reflective materials can also increasing vegetation through term health through increased be integrated relatively urban forestry and green roofs nutrition and exercise, which may inexpensively over time, through can also reduce ground-level decrease rates of lifestyle their incorporation in routine ozone, reduce reliance on air diseases like diabetes and can ► maintenance of buildings and conditioning and provide a range also increase social contact. other urban surfaces. The impact of additional social and ecological Heat wave cont ... 9

Active vs. passive measures: programs that include urban of passive options address these Which is more effective in design that increases social issues, including LEED design, reducing vulnerability? interaction and community increased albedo and improved The ability of active and gardens. Developing social insulation. passive options to address capital in this manner would not Active programs various vulnerability factors is require active deployment of staff generally include improved public outlined in table 2. In comparison and volunteers during heat-wave transportation during heat-wave to passive options, active options events, and this approach is events (e.g., transportation may not be as effective in more in-line with proactive directly to cooling centres), reducing underlying factors that disaster mitigation, rather than however passive programs may result in vulnerability, especially emergency response. include permanent improvements when long time-frames and Socioeconomics are also in transit. Improving public transit external vulnerability factors are not addressed through response- has additional benefits, especially considered. oriented active options. While in the case of promotion of transit socioeconomics are not directly that includes pedestrianism and Table 2: Vulnerability addressed by risk addressed through passive cycling, as these measures can reduction measures increase physical activity and Mitigation type Vulnerability type Active Passive help reduce prevalence of health Addressed through Drug effects Not addressed (-) factors, such as chronic disease, warnings (+) Visits to vulnerable Increased community that increase vulnerability to heat- Social isolation populations (*) engagement/contact (+) wave events. In comparison, Housing conditions, community design SES Not addressed (-) addressed (*) long-term health and chronic Short-term access to Reduced ambient temperatures, Internal Access to A/C, cooling diseases are not addressed cooling centres (*) reduced need for A/C (+) Housing Not addressed (-) Addressed (+) through active programs. Short-term access to Access to transportation Improved public transit (+) cooling centres (*) Pre-existing conditions, chronic Addressed through improved public Conclusion Not addressed (-) disease, fitness, dependency transit, community gardens (+) Heat-waves are a Acclimatization Not addressed (-) Reduced ambient temperatures (*) External UHI Not addressed (-) Addressed (+) significant cause of death and Community design Not addressed (-) Addressed (+) morbidity across the world, and the impacts of heat-events are (-) indicates that factor is not addressed, (+) indicates that factor is addressed, (*) indicates that factor is partially addressed. likely to increase due to changing frequency, severity and intensity Some active programs provide programs, factors associated with of heat-waves caused by climate information on the impacts of low socioeconomics, such as change. The importance of drugs in inhibiting physiological community design that increases addressing vulnerability for responses to heat events, a the UHI and poor housing summer-time high temperatures factor that is not addressed conditions, are addressed will be exacerbated by the fact through passive programs. through passive programs. that more vulnerable individuals Further, active programs often Though active programs are are likely to survive milder winter include visits to or contact with often designed to increase temperatures and be exposed to vulnerable populations during or access to air conditioning, access high summer temperatures. immediately before heat events. is generally provided only over a Passive programs, The experience of residents short time period through cooling because they are long-term and during the 1995 Chicago heat- centres. Further, as discussed have a strong proactive wave, where those who were above, some aspects of air mitigation/prevention orientation, contacted by city social services conditioning, including inhibiting are designed to address the root staff and educated about heat- physiological adaptations to heat causes of internal and external wave risks had lower risks of and generating excess waste vulnerability. The effectiveness of mortality, indicates that short- heat may exacerbate passive programs is augmented term social contact can reduce vulnerability. Passive programs by their multiple additional risk. Increased incidence of can permanently reduce ambient benefits—all of which will be listening to the radio and reading temperatures and include required for both mitigation of newspapers to educate oneself building measures that reduce climate change and adaptation to about heat risks was also reliance on air conditioning. inevitable impacts of climate associated with reduced mortality Further, while housing issues change. For these reasons, risk in Chicago in 1995. (e.g., insulation, passive cooling) passive options are being applied However, social isolation is are not addressed in response- throughout Canada and North addressed through passive oriented active options, a number America, often without ► Swiss Re’s sigma on natural catastrophes and man-made 10 disasters in 2011 unveils USD 116 billion in insured losses and record economic losses of USD 370 billion

• Last year saw the highest year well and played a key role in Zealand, and Turkey, as well as economic losses in history, at risk management and post- the floods in Australia and USD 370 billion disaster recovery financing.” Thailand, were unprecedented and brought not only massive • The insurance industry Highest ever recorded destruction but also the loss of weathered 2011 soundly economic losses thousands of people’s lives. Yet despite experiencing the two-thirds of the staggering USD second-largest insured In 2011, total economic losses to 370 billion in economic damage losses ever, at USD 116 society due to disasters (both will be shouldered by billion insured and uninsured) reached corporations, governments, relief • 2011 also brought the an estimated USD 370 billion, organizations, and ultimately highest insured earthquake compared to USD 226 billion in individuals, pointing to the still losses, at USD 49 billion 2010. The earthquake in Japan, widespread lack of insurance • Flooding in Thailand resulted the largest known in terms of protection worldwide.” in the highest insured losses magnitude to have ever hit the ever for a single flood event, country, accounted for 57% of Record-breaking earthquake at USD 12 billion 2011’s economic losses. insured claims Altogether, natural catastrophe Swiss Re’s latest sigma study insured losses came to around Due to the extreme magnitude of reveals unprecedented economic USD 110 billion, while losses the event (Mw 9.0), the 2011 losses of USD 370 billion from from man-made disasters were Japan earthquake cost the natural catastrophes and man- around USD 6 billion, making insurance industry an estimated made disasters in 2011. Despite 2011 the second-highest USD 35 billion, making it the immense insured losses of USD catastrophe loss year ever for the most expensive earthquake on 116 billion (a 142% increase over insurance industry. record. “Because Japan‘s the previous year) arising from Kurt Karl, Swiss Re’s earthquake insurance protection record earthquake and flood Chief Economist, said: “Last year is very low, particularly for losses, Swiss Re said in a saw extraordinary and commercial properties, the release March 28 that “the devastating catastrophic events. insurance industry will bear only insurance industry weathered the The earthquakes in Japan, New 17% of the total losses. ►

Heat wave cont ... express purpose of mitigating heat-health risk, but for their multiple benefits. However, the main weaknesses of passive options are their costs and the long-time frame required for implementation. Thus, active programs have been implemented to fill that heat-health risk reduction gap. From an emergency management perspective, it is important that communities do not rely exclusively on heat- health warning systems and rather work to implement long-term passive systems in combination with active systems.

Notes 1) Apparent temperature measures relative discomfort due to combined temperature and humidity. 2) Doyon, B., Belanger, D., & Gosselin, P. (2008). The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Quebec, Canada. International Journal of Health Geographics, 7, 23. 3) Diaz, J., Jordan, A., Garcia, R., Lopez, C., Alberdi, J., Hernandez, E., & Otero, A. (2002). Heat-waves in Madrid 1986-1997: Effects on the health of the elderly. International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health, 75, 163-170. 4) Kalkstein, L., & Sheridan, S. (2007). The social impacts of the heat-health watch/warning system in Phoenix, Arizona: Assessing the perceived risk and response of the public. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52, 43-55. 5) Harlan, S., & Ruddell, D. (2011). Climate change and health in cities: Impacts of heat and air pollution and potential co- benefits from mitigation and adaptation. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3, 126-134.

Swiss Re’s sigma on natural catastrophes cont ... 11

Had Japan been more fully painful reminder that, given the The insurance industry insured, 2011 would certainly high risk of flooding in many weathered the events well have been the most expensive countries, other parts of the globe year ever also in terms of insured could be prone to similar or even The insurance industry proved losses,” says Lucia Bevere, bigger losses,” says Jens highly effective in weathering the Swiss Re Senior Catastrophe Mehlhorn, Head of Flood Perils at extreme events of 2011. Despite Data Analyst and co-author of the Swiss Re and co-author of the historic losses and a challenging study. In New Zealand, where study. financial environment, the earthquake insurance penetration industry played a key role in post- is high, particularly for residential Mild hurricane season caps disaster recovery financing, properties, the February high U.S. insured losses bringing much-needed funds to earthquake (Mw 6.3) – the third affected populations, businesses, most expensive in history – In addition to earthquakes and and governments. The events, triggered further insurance claims floods, an unparalleled tornado however, revealed increasing risk of USD 12 billion, covering 80% season in the U.S. caused accumulation, particularly in of economic losses. insured catastrophe losses of emerging markets. “To support over USD 25 billion. “Despite the the industry going forward, Swiss Unprecedentedly high flood exceptional tornadoes and Re will enhance its CatNet® losses Hurricane Irene, a relatively information system by including moderate hurricane season kept more detailed river flood hazard The floods in Australia, the overall insured losses in the US zones. The update, to be country’s worst natural disaster lower than the record year of released in spring 2012, will ever in terms of losses, triggered 2005, the year in which enable underwriters and risk insured claims of over USD 2 hurricanes Katrina, Wilma and managers to more accurately billion. However, at USD 12 Rita contributed the lion’s share assess flood risks on a global billion, insured claims from the of that year's total global claims level,” adds Mehlhorn. flood in Thailand are the highest of USD 123 billion,” adds Bevere. ever recorded for a river water flood event. “Flood losses can be just as tremendous as earthquake and storm losses. The flooding in Thailand is a

Reducing damage to houses in storms cont ... Final comments country. In addition to this, we are of this is only slightly heavier developing recommendations for sheathing, ring shank nails (such To date, we have completed the “above code” practices for as the HurriQuake® nails wind tunnel tests to determine the regions with tornado risk, like in examined here) rather than wind loads on sheathing and the the prairie provinces and common nails or twist-shank full-scale tests to determine southern Ontario. Our preliminary nails, and a slightly higher capacities. We are currently calculations indicate that roof number of nails on each panel, working to merge these results in sheathing will be able to going to the 6/6 spacing instead order to develop prescriptive withstand tornadoes with a of the currently used 6/12 recommendations which can be strength of EF-2 on the spacing. applied to all houses, considering Enhanced Fujita Scale, such as the varying design wind speeds those that occurred in Vaughan, in the different regions of the Ontario in August 2009. The cost

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Mission 20 Richmond Street East To reduce the loss of life and property Western University Suite 210 caused by severe weather and earthquakes Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Toronto, Ontario through the identification and support of 1151 Richmond Street M5C 2R9 sustained actions that improve society’s London, Ontario Tel: (416) 364-8677 capacity to adapt to, anticipate, mitigate, N6G 5B9 Fax: (416) 364-5889 withstand and recover from natural Tel: (519) 661-3338 www.iclr.org disasters. Fax: (519) 661-3339 www.iclr.org