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The Syrian Crisis

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The Syrian Crisis THE SYRIAN CRISIS TRACKING AND TACKLING IMPACTS ON SUSTAINABLE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES Insights from Lebanon and Jordan WORKING PAPER - APRIL 2014 This document is a revised version of the paper presented at the United Nations Development Group regional meeting in Amman on 2nd and 3rd of November 2013. 1 The findings, interpretations and conclusions are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNDP and institutions of the United Nations system that are mentioned herein, nor of the Governments of Jordan and Lebanon. Copyright © United Nations Development Programme, 2015 The Regional Bureau for Arab States This publication may be reproduced for educational or non-profit purposes without permission from the copyright holder, providing acknowledgement of the source is made. 2 FOREWORD Concerned by the scale and protracted nature of the Syrian crisis and its spillover on neighboring countries, the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States initiated a policy research project in the summer of 2013 to investigate the human development impacts of the crisis and their implications for resilience building efforts in two of the most affected countries: Lebanon and Jordan. The paper is the outcome of this important, pilot research initiative. It distils and compares available macro and micro-level evidence of the impacts of the crisis in Lebanon and Jordan with a particular focus on the consequences of demographic shock arising from the massive refugee inflows. I t shows that, in both countries, the refugee presence has affected the broad spectrum of human development outcomes in communities that were already most deprived and vulnerable prior to the crisis. Absorptive capacities of public health, education, and in particular, water and sanitation systems are rapidly eroding, competition over limited or declining job opportunities and resources is becoming fiercer. The crisis is also altering gender relationships and social cohesion. In this context, Lebanon and Jordan confront the double and daunting challenge of addressing the vulnerabilities of both refugee and host communities while maintaining macroeconomic and social stability. Highlighting the discrepancies between humanitarian response plans and emerging challenges and priorities for host countries and communities, the paper makes the case for a strategic turnaround, whereby efforts to build resilience shift gears from a purely humanitarian approach towards a longer term, development-oriented one. Central to this approach is a better understanding of the drivers of vulnerabilities and the acknowledgement of the differentiated capacity challenges and priorities that people, communities and national institutions face in dealing with the impacts of the crisis. The preparation of the paper involved extensive consultations and collaborations with UN agencies and other practitioners concerned by the developmental effects of the crisis in Syria neighboring countries. Following the Regional UN Development Group (UNDG) Meeting held in Amman in November 2013, when initial research findings were presented and discussed, valuable comments were received from dedicated experts through the UNDP Sub-regional Response Facility and the Regional UNDG Resilience Working Group the Arab States/MENA Region, leading to the finalization of the paper in early 2014. The paper – intended to serve as a resource for researchers and practitioners alike – cross-fertilized with the multi-sector needs assessments conducted by governments and UN country teams in Lebanon and Jordan, and informed prioritization and decision-making in crisis response planning and programming. The insights and recommendations contained in interim versions of the paper also informed the rationale and strategic content of the Resilience-based Development Approach, which now serves as the guiding framework for a more comprehensive and sustainable response to the Syrian crisis. Sima Bahous United Nations Assistant Secretary-General UNDP Assistant Administrator and Director of Regional Bureau for Arab States Chair of the Regional UNDG for the Arab States, Middle East and North Africa 3 CONTENTS FOREWORD 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 6 ACRONYMS AND ABREVIATIONS 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 LIST OF BOXES 14 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 14 PART I – SETTING THE SCENE: REGIONAL CONTEXT AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 16 1.1 The Syrian Catastrophe 16 1.1.1 The Economic Collapse 16 1.1.2 The Human Development Toll 17 1.2 Why Looking at Spillovers to Neighboring Countries through a Sustainable Human Development Lens? 20 1.2.1 Acknowledging the Massiveness and Protractedness of the Refugee Crisis 20 1.2.2 Acknowledging the Vulnerability of Pre-crisis Development Achievements 24 1.3 Research Objectives, Dynamics, Approach and Limitations 27 1.4 Paper Structure 29 PART II - SCALING AND PROFILING THE VULNERABILITY CHALLENGE IN LEBANON AND JORDAN 30 2.1 The Demographic Shock Wave 30 2.1.1 Magnitude and Dynamics 30 2.1.2 Spatial Dispersion, Concentration and Fluidity 31 2.1.3 Gender, Age and Vulnerability Profile 34 2.2 Locating and Sizing the Vulnerability Challenge in Host Communities 37 2.2.1 Contrasting Refugee Densities and Poverty Rates 37 2.2.2 Quantifying the Extra-Vulnerability Burden on Host Communities 39 2.3 Widening the Loop: Vulnerabilities outside Major Host Areas and Macro- Vulnerabilities 41 PART III – ASSESSING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS 42 3.1 Methodological Issues and Challenges 42 3.1.1 Uncertainties and Fluidity of the Crisis 42 3.1.2 Gaps in Current Research 42 3.1.3 Quantitative vs. Qualitative Assessments 43 3.1.4 National vs. Local Assessments 44 3.2 Findings 45 3.2.1 Increased Poverty and Vulnerability 45 3.2.2 Deterioration of Health and Education Access and Quality 56 3.2.3 Challenges to Sustainable Habitats 65 3.2.4 Changes in Gender Relationships: Marginalization and Insecurity of Women and Girls 69 3.2.5 Threats to Social Cohesion and Human Security 70 3.2.6 Priority Needs for Action amongst Host Communities: Insights from Local Perception Surveys 72 3.2.7 Contrasting Local and Macro-Economic Impacts of the Crisis: Highlights 77 4 PART IV – ASSESSING THE CURRENT REPONSE TO THE CRISIS: THE NEED FOR A TURNAROUND 81 4.1 Outreach to Vulnerable Populations and Responsiveness to Sectoral Priorities in Host Communities 82 4.1.1 How Does the Response Balance the Needs of Refugees and Vulnerable Host Populations? 82 4.1.2 Funding Requirements vs Top Priorities for Host Communities 84 4.2 Balance and Bridges between Short term and Longer Term Action 86 4.2.1 How Does the Response Balance Short Term and Longer Term needs? 86 4.2.2 Institutional Linkages and Coordination Between Humanitarian and Development Actors 88 PART V – CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: TOWARDS LONG-TERM RESILIENCE 90 5.1 Comprehensive Conflict and Gender-Sensitive Evidence-Building and Monitoring Systems for Informed Responses 90 5.1.1. Assessing and Tracking Local Vulnerabilities and Pressures 91 5.1.2 The Case for Participatory Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessments 93 5.1.3 Assessing and Monitoring Macro-Vulnerabilities 93 5.1.4 The Case for Regional Monitoring and Knowledge Sharing Systems 93 5.2 Seeking Balance and Maximizing Synergies between Humanitarian and Development Action for Sustainable Outcomes 94 5.2.1 Addressing Local Priorities: Linking Short Term Action with Longer-Term Development Needs 94 5.2.2 Mainstreaming and Promoting Social Cohesion 95 5.2.3 Towards Systemic Resilience 96 APPENDIXES 99 APPENDIX I Vulnerability and Crisis Impact Monitoring: A tentative Set of Indicators 99 APPENDIX II - Poverty, Refugee Densities and Vulnerability Ratios in Jordan Governorates 104 APPENDIX III – Status of Syrian refugees 95 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The paper has been prepared by Nathalie Bouché (Team Leader, Inclusive Growth & Sustainable Development, UNDP Regional Hub in Amman1), research coordinator and lead author, in collaboration with Mohammad Mohieddin (Senior Consultant). It benefited from a broad range of inputs, discussions and commentary provided from various UN agencies and other practitioners concerned with the impact of the Syrian crisis on development outcomes and resilience-building challenges, in both Syria and neighboring countries. The list of UN experts and practitioners who assisted with the production of the paper is extensive and heartfelt thanks are reserved for national experts, Redha Hamdam (Consultation and Research Institute in Lebanon2) and Mukhallad Omari (senior national consultant from Jordan) both of whom contributed insightful background papers that are referenced throughout this report. A first comprehensive version of this paper was presented to the Regional UN Development Group (UNDG) Meeting held in Amman in November 2013, and in early January 2014 a revised version was shared with members of the UNDP Sub-regional Response Facility and the UNDG Resilience Working Group for the Arab States/MENA Region. The valuable insights and inputs (both formal and informal) received throughout the process were instrumental for improving the scope and depth of the analysis. Invaluable support was received from UNDP Country Offices in accessing relevant resources, facilitating stakeholder consultations and guiding the work at the country level. Also acknowledged are the contributions of the Offices of the Resident Coordinators in Jordan and Lebanon in facilitating the cross- fertilization of research work with other UN supported assessments of the developmental implications of the Syrian crisis. Special thanks go to Amr
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