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Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Cornell Hedge Fund | Global Macro Fund FA 2020 Fund Manager: Willa Chen Analysts: Alyssa Lee, Brandon Amtzis, Echo Li, Rishab Yeddula Table of Contents Investment Thesis 3 Industry Overview 5 Company Overview 7 Catalysts 11 Risks & Mitigants 15 Valuation 17 Final Recommendation 22 Appendix 25 2 Investment Thesis 3 Investment Thesis Company Overview Catalysts • Bilibili Inc., also called B-Site, is a Shanghai-based video sharing 1 Versatile User Acquisition Strategies and online streaming platform which offers advertisement, gaming, and e-commerce services to over 130 million users • Founded in 2010 and listed on NASDAQ in 2018 2 Advertisement Monetization via Diversified Channels • Core features include user-generated content and real-time bullet captioning system Danmu popular with young consumers 3 $1.5bn Hong Kong Secondary IPO in 2021 Statistics & Fundamentals Valuation Current ADR Price ADRs Outstanding Market Cap $44.20 347.4M RMB 101.8B Levered Beta P/S Revenue (TTM) 1.63 6.97x RMB 8.8B Investment Thesis: BUY We recommend a BUY for BILI at $44.20 with a target share price of $58.00, implying a 31.2% upside over a 12-month investment horizon. Significant user acQuisition and monetization potential, in addition to a planned secondary listing in Hong Kong, are key drivers to accelerate Bilibili’s rapid growth and strengthen the firm’s position as the most diversified and youth-conscious online streaming platform in the Chinese market. Sources: Capital IQ, Equity research reports (Credit Suisse, Huatai, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS) 4 Industry Overview 5 Industry Overview Online Entertainment & Streaming Industry in China Industry Overview Industry Revenue • Entertainment and online streaming services including TV, movies, and 2019 Revenue by Segment user-generated content targeted at younger audiences • Monetization of online user platforms by expanding categories to advertising, mobile gaming, e-commerce • Chinese market dominated by Youku (Alibaba), iQiYi (Baidu), and QQ Video (Tencent) which each occupy a specific niche in the industry Industry Trends & Economic Drivers Key Industry Players Cross-Category • Gaming, e-sports, film, original, short-term, and user-generated content Monthly Average Users (MAU) per Platform (millions) Content • >50% total annual growth driven by VR and OTT Videos Diversification • 62% of China’s 904M internet users engage in livestreaming Expansion of • Multiple revenue streams via advertising, e-commerce, and partnerships Revenue • Consumer spending on online entertainment, driven by Gen Z users Channels and lower-tier households, projected to hit $116B by 2023 (+114.8%) • Customer retention via emotes, content creation, and media selection Aggressive User • Internet penetration in China projected to reach 975M users by 2022 Acquisition (+3.1%) • 5G adoption to revolutionize how users produce and consume content 5G Adoption & • Gen Z’s contribution to total market revenue projected to reach 66% Gen Z Growth by 2023 (+24%) The online entertainment and streaming industry in China is experiencing tremendous growth across all service and content categories due to high consumer demand, leading to multiple monetization opportunities and aggressive competition for user traffic. Sources: Bilibili 2019 10-K, Equity research reports (Credit Suisse, Huatai, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS) 6 Company Overview 7 Company Overview Company Profile Company Overview Historical Stock Performance • Bilibili was founded in 2010 in Shanghai as an iconic youth-centered Market Cap: RMB 101.8B FY19 Revenue: RMB 6.78B FY19 EBITDA: RMB (0.44)B brand of online entertainment for younger consumers • Chinese video-streaming and video-sharing site themed around Current ADR Price: $44.20; EPS: $(0.49/share) animation, comics, and games (ACG) which has evolved into a full spectrum of online entertainment categories and content formats Management Founder & President: Yi Xu Chief Financial Officer: Xin Fan CEO & Chairman: Rui Chen Vice Chairman & COO: Ni Li Institutional Investors FY2019 Revenue Breakdown 1 Platform usage rises dramatically after Chinese government launches Covid-19 lockdown. Fidelity Management 4.2% Alibaba Group Holding 3.8% 2 Sony pays $400M in cash for equity stake in Bilibili. Hillhouse Capital Advisors 3.5% Yiheng Capital LLC 2.5% 3 Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act expected to be signed. Wells Capital Management 2.4% 4 Bilibili announces $66M investment in Huanxi Media, gaining exclusive film and TV rights. Bilibili originated as an ACG-focused content community for young consumers and has pursued rapid growth over the past decade through diversified content expansion and strategic partnerships with both media providers and investors like Alibaba and Tencent. Sources: Bilibili 2019 10-K, Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 8 Company Overview Key Differentiators & Growth Strategy Competitive Advantages Growth Performance Content Positioning Membership System Key Highlights Unique content positioning focused Members must pass 100-question 107% CAGR Daily time spent/user jumped from on ACG; currently top-ranked and entrance exam, creating a 1 81-87 min in the past quarter due to most popular in genre knowledgeable, loyal user community more time amidst Covid-19 Official members increased to 89M Platform Features Target Audience 2 and avg. MAU share in China’s mobile industry 16% higher in Q3 Pioneered “bullet chatting” Danmu Dominant user base amongst Gen Z 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Significant increase in views and feature, a live commenting experience with strong demand in culture 3 interactions with avg. monthly video with 122% yoy interaction growth products driving site engagement Net Profit Operating Profit Gross Profit views/MAU change from 59-210 Timeline of Key Events October 2018 December 2018 April 2020 August 2020 August 2020 $318 million Tencent Collaboration in E- $400 million Investment 3-year Partnership $66 million Investment Video EQuity Investment Commerce with TaoBao from Sony Music with Riot Games in Huanxi Media Equity investment to broadcast Drive e-commerce platform Expand operations in animation Exclusive live broadcasting of Pursue opportunities in film more anime and esports content with focus on lifestyle services and mobile games verticals League of Legends global events and TV dramas series Bilibili has numerous competitive advantages, including its uniQue content positioning, membership system, and platform features, as well as positive performance over the past decade. The firm will continue its growth momentum through strategic partnerships, content and service expansion, and increased monetization. Sources: Bilibili 2019 10-K, Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 9 Company Overview Business Segments Mobile Games (53% of FY2019 Revenue) Value-Added Services (24% of FY2019 Revenue) Mobile games revenue reached RMB 1.2B in 2Q20 (+35.7% yoy), mainly VAS revenue (live-streaming and membership businesses) reached RMB driven by the successful launch of mobile game Princess Connect. 825.3M in 2Q20 (+153.1% yoy). The number of premium members rose 100% yoy in June 2020. 1151 1248 794 825 873 920 933 871 791 744 713 571 453 292 326 119 169 202 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 Advertising (12% of FY2019 Revenue) E-Commerce & Others (11% of FY2019 Revenue) Advertising revenue reached RMB 348.6M in 2Q20 (+107.8% yoy) amid E-commerce & others revenue reached RMB 195.8M in 2Q20 (+57.8% yoy), macro tailwinds. Effective ad solutions and a vibrant community of younger with Covid-related logistics disruptions responsible for the slowdown. users have helped Bilibili become the go-to online platform for marketing. 349 E-Commerce Model Partnerships 290 247 Content creators can set up their own Collaboration with Taobao and Xiaomi to 214 business on Bilibili. create integrated digital marketing tools 160 168 137 • along with Logitech G and Sony Music. 96 112 Partnership with popular KOLs or KOCs to promote products • Launched its own mini program for e-commerce 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 Bilibili has seen tremendous growth across all business segments in the past few quarters, with advertising and value-added services businesses leading due to effective ad solutions, a growing Gen Z user base, and a rise in premium memberships in the pandemic environment. Sources: Bilibili 2019 10-K, Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 10 Catalysts 11 Catalysts Catalyst 1: User Acquisition Strategy Key User Growth Factors User Demographics Gaming Platform Generation Z • Gen Z users account for 80% of Bilibili’s current MAU, vastly higher than • Bilibili released Genshin Impact, an open-world RPG game on Sept. competitors like Mango TV and iQiYi. 28th, which surpassed Fortnite on launch day. • Corporate strategy has been to partner with major developers to ACG (Anime, Comics, and Games ) onboard streamers onto the Bilibili content platform. • Bilibili has one of the highest ACG user bases in China, driving sales through their gaming platform. Sept. 2020 May 2021 May 2021 Early 2021 Future Release Pipeline Genshin Impact Princess Connect Animistic Sword Art Online MAU (Monthly Active Users) Targets (miHoYo) • Once Bilibili reaches 400M MAU, they will attain super-app status (like Content Ecosystem YouTube), cementing a clear advantage over other video sharing applications like iQiYi, Tencent, and Youku. • Heavy investments into user-created content have differentiated Bilibili from competitors like Tencent and
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