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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Singapore Company Guide Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Version 14 | Bloomberg: HPHT SP | Reuters: HPHT.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 25 Jul 2019 HOLD 2019 DPU forecast cut to 13HKcts Last Traded Price ( 24 Jul 2019): US$0.225 (STI : 3,368.44) Price Target 12-mth: US$0.23 (2% upside) (Prev US$0.26) Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of US$0.23. Despite a decent prospective yield of 7.4% on offer, we remain neutral on Analyst Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) as it remains vulnerable to Paul YONG, CFA +65 6682 3712 [email protected] the on-going trade dispute between the US and China as its key What’s New port asset in Yantian, Shenzhen is heavily exposed to China’s export sector. Its Hong Kong port asset has also been • 1H19 earnings below expectations as net profit fell underperforming for many years with no clear sign of a 26% y-o-y on higher finance and tax expenses, on turnaround anytime soon. flattish revenue growth • Interim dividend of 6HKcts with FY19 full year DPU Where we differ: We cut our FY19F and FY20F DPU by 2HKcts guidance now at lower end of 11-17HKcts per year to 13HKcts and 14 HKcts respectively. • FY19/20F earnings lowered by 12%/10%, FY19F DPU Potential catalysts: HPHT’s share price could re-rate if cut to 13HKcts throughput volumes can drive better-than-expected revenues • Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of US$0.23 and cash flows in the quarters ahead. FY19F DPU guidance adjusted to lower end of 11-17 HKcts Price Relative range, citing uncertainties posed by the US-China trade situation. Given the lackluster 1H19 results and citing uncertainty over its throughput outlook due to the ongoing US- China trade war situation, the company has now guided for FY19F DPU to be at the lower end of its previous DPU guidance range for FY19 of between 11-17HKcts. Valuation: Forecasts and Valuation Maintain HOLD, TP cut to US$0.23. Our TP is based on a FY Dec (HK$m) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F discounted cash flow valuation framework (weighted average Revenue 11,551 11,483 11,407 11,655 cost of capital of 8.6% and terminal growth rate of 0%). EBITDA 6,565 6,575 6,435 6,557 Pre-tax Profit 2,705 (9,812) 2,254 2,413 Net Profit 944 (11,551) 609 652 Key Risks to Our View: Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 944 738 609 652 A global recession would materially impact trade and Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (44.9) (21.9) (17.5) 7.1 throughput numbers for HPHT, which would then have an EPS (US cts.) 1.39 (17.0) 0.89 0.96 EPS Pre Ex. (US cts.) 1.39 1.08 0.89 0.96 impact on the group’s earnings and cash flows, and ultimately EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (45) (22) (17) 7 dividend payout. Net DPS (US cts.) 2.64 2.18 1.66 1.79 BV Per Share (US cts.) 59.2 39.3 38.6 37.7 At A Glance PE (X) 16.2 nm 25.1 23.5 Issued Capital (m shrs) 8,711 PE Pre Ex. (X) 16.2 20.8 25.1 23.5 Mkt. Cap (US$m/US$m) 1,960 / 1,959 P/Cash Flow (X) 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 9.3 9.1 9.1 8.7 Major Shareholders (%) Net Div Yield (%) 11.7 9.7 7.4 8.0 Hutchison Ports 27.6 P/Book Value (X) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Temasek Holdings Private Ltd 13.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Free Float (%) 58.5 ROAE (%) 2.3 (34.5) 2.3 2.5 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.5 Earnings Rev (%): (12) (9) ICB Industry : Industrials / Industrial Transportation Consensus EPS (US cts.): 0.87 0.92 Other Broker Recs: B: 0 S: 3 H: 4 Bloomberg ESG disclosure score (2018)^ 36.0 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg - Environmental / Social / Governance 26.4/ 43.9 / 51.8 Finance L.P ^ refer to back page for more information ed: JS/ sa: AS, PY, CS Company Guide Hutchison Port Holdings Trust WHAT’S NEW 1H19 earnings and DPU disappoint 2Q19 net profit slides 20% y-o-y. HPHT reported 2Q19 net for YICT Phase I & II. Following the expiry of its tax status, its profit of HK$137m, a 20% drop y-o-y, slightly below our tax rate increased from 15% to 25% standard tax rate. The expectations. Revenue during the quarter was flat at management believes that HPHT stands a low chance in HK$2.7bn. Throughput volume in HK for the quarter fell by getting the same tax incentive given more stringent 4.4% y-o-y, and this was offset by a 4.9% increase in requirements. Further, the management does not expect any throughput volume in Yantian. ASP was and is expected to rate hikes in the second half and finance costs should remain remain stable. Gross profit was flat at HK$1.8bn for the largely the same. quarter. Cautious DPU guidance. The management shared that DPU 1H19 earnings fell 26% y-o-y to HKS$233m, on revenue for the year will fall at the lower end of its guidance of 11-17 decline of 0.6% to HK$5,424m. HKcts as it continues to remain cautious on the global trade outlook. We have revised our FY19F DPU downwards to 13 Lower net profit mainly due to increased interest expense HKcts from 15 HKcts, while cutting our FY19F earnings by from higher HIBOR/LIBOR, and higher tax costs from the 12.1%. As a result, we cut our TP to US$0.23. expiry of the “High and New Technology Enterprise” status Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (HK$m) FY Dec 2Q2018 1Q2019 2Q2019 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 2,789 2,675 2,749 (1.5) 2.7 Cost of Goods Sold (1,006) (948) (953) (5.4) 0.5 Gross Profit 1,783 1,727 1,796 0.7 4.0 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (946) (958) (958) 1.2 0.0 Operating Profit 837 769 838 0.2 9.0 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - Associates & JV Inc (10.0) (10.1) (15.5) (55.0) 53.5 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (252) (274) (271) (7.6) 1.2 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - Pre-tax Profit 575 485 552 (4.0) 13.8 Tax (102) (107) (109) 7.1 1.8 Minority Interest (303) (281) (306) (1.1) 9.1 Net Profit 170 96.9 137 (19.7) 40.9 Net profit bef Except. 170 96.9 137 (19.7) 40.9 EBITDA 1,594 1,528 1,599 0.3 4.6 Margins (%) Gross Margins 63.9 64.6 65.3 Opg Profit Margins 30.0 28.8 30.5 Net Profit Margins 6.1 3.6 5.0 Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank Page 2 Company Guide Hutchison Port Holdings Trust HIT Throughput ('000 TEUs) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Critical Factors Volumes under pressure. Throughput volume at Yantian Port grew by 3.6% y-o-y to 13.2m TEUs in 2018, driven mainly by growth in US and transshipment volumes. This followed an 8.6% y-o-y improvement in 2017, which was also led by growth in US volumes and transshipment cargoes. For 2019, we expect volumes at Yantian to stay flat, subject to how the US- China trade war situation plays out. Yantian Throughput ('000 TEUs) Meanwhile, the Trust’s wholly owned subsidiary, Hong Kong International Terminals (HIT), saw volumes contract 6.6% y-o-y in 2018 following a 6% y-o-y decline in 2017. We are projecting throughput growth to be flat in 2019, with an improvement of 2% in 2020. Container handling rates to remain subdued. The average revenue per TEU for HIT rose by 0.5% y-o-y in 2018, compared to 8.7% y-o-y decline in 2017, due mainly to a write-back of agency fee provision following the finalisation of tariff negotiation. We expect average tariff for HIT to be flat in 2019. HIT Tariff / TEU For Yantian, we assume a similar 1% decline in revenue per TEU in 2019 as in 2018, as the RMB continues to weaken slightly against the US$. Cost management important to protect margins. On 8 January 2019, HIT, COSCO-HIT, ACT and Modern Terminals Limited entered into a Hong Kong Seaport Joint Operating Alliance Agreement regarding the terms on which they will collaborate with each other for the efficient management and operation of the 23 berths in Kwai Tsing. This should help manage costs for all parties involved. Yantian Tariff / TEU Rising interest cost a drag on pretax earnings. In a rising interest rate environment, we project higher interest costs for HPHT ahead, which would drag core pre-tax earnings growth in FY19F and 2020F. We project HPHT’s average cost of debt to be 3.5% in FY19 vs 3.25% in FY20. Higher tax costs due to the expiry of the “High and New Technology Enterprise” status for YICT Phase 1 & II. This led to an increase from 15% tax rate to 25% standard income tax which will continue to put pressure on the company’s net profit Operating Margin (%) margins going forward.
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