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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Singapore | Industrials Equity Research 15 December 2020 Company update Chu Peng Equity Research Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Singapore | Industrials Rating HOLD (as at 15 December 2020) Last Close SGD 0.182 Fair Value SGD 0.180 Recovery of throughput volumes Security information • Recovery of economic activities in China Ticker HPHT SP • Picking up of throughput volumes in 3Q20 Market Cap (USD b) 1.6 • Expecting a better 2H20 Daily turnov er (USD m) 2.1 Free Float 72% Investment thesis Shares Outstanding (m) 8,711 Top Shareholder HUTCHISON PORT HLDGS 27.6% Hutchison Port Holdings Trust’s (HPHT) share price jumped 30% in November, which was likely to due to Price performance chart easing impact from Covid-19 with a recovery in the 0.60 4,000 container throughput volumes as countries exit from 0.50 lockdowns and resumption of economic activities in 3,500 China. The throughput volumes of Kwai Tsing and 0.40 Yantian has recovered from the trough levels in 1H20 0.30 3,000 and saw a growth of 2.6% and 26.6% YoY respectively 0.20 2,500 in Oct 2020. While we could see further recovery in 4Q 0.10 due to catchup orders from Covid-19, outlook remains 0.00 2,000 uncertain given global economic weakness and Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 continued headwinds from U.S-China trade tensions. After adjustments, our fair value estimate increases HPHT SP Equity STI Index (RHS) from US$0.10 to US$0.18. Financial summary Investment summary HKD m FY19 FY20F FY21F • Throughput volumes recovered from trough levels in Gross rev enue 11,121 10,649 10,690 1H20 – Hutchison Port Holdings Trust’s (HPHT) share Cost of serv ices rendered -3,882 -3,414 -3,741 price jumped 30% in November, which was likely to PAT 1,821 1,834 1,724 due to easing impact from Covid-19 with a recovery PATMI 528 506 524 in the container throughput volumes as countries exit EPS (HK cents) 6.1 5.8 6.0 from lockdowns and resumption of economic activities in China. The throughput volumes of Kwai DPU (HK cents) 11.0 9.0 10.0 Tsing and Yantian has recovered from the trough levels in 1H20 and saw a growth of 2.6% and 26.6% YoY respectively in Oct 2020. For 10M20, the Key ratios container throughput of Kwai Tsing and Yantian rose FY19 FY20F FY21F 0.5% and 0.2% YoY respectively. Recall that Kwai Tsing and Yantian’s throughput fell 3% and 12% YoY DPU yield (%) 7.7 6.3 7.0 respectively in 1H20. The decline of throughput of P/NAV (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 Yantian was more significant than that of Kwai Tsing Debt to Equity (%) 67.1 56.6 48.2 in 1H20 as Yantian was an export hub which saw greater impact from weak export demand due to Covid-19 and U.S.-China trade tensions while Kwai Tsing was positioned as a transshipment hub. • Higher FV estimate of US$0.18 – As of 14 Dec’s close, 1 Equity Research 15 December 2020 HPHT is trading at 0.49x forward P/B which is almost Results highlights 0.5 s.d. below its historical mean of 0.56x. While we could see further recovery in 4Q due to catchup orders from Covid-19, outlook remains uncertain given global economic weakness and continued headwinds from U.S-China trade tensions. We raise our forecasted growth rate for overall throughput volume from -7% to -2% YoY for FY20 and reduce our cost of equity assumption to 8.5%. After adjustments, our fair value estimate increases from US$0.10 to US$0.18. Potential catalysts Investment risks • Progress made on US-CN trading relationship • Continued escalation in trade tensions • Stronger than expected pick up in global trade • A slowdown in the global economy Valuation analysis Price/Earnings Price/Book EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) ROE (%) FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TRUST (HPHT SP) 25.5 25.0 0.5 0.5 8.9 8.6 6.3 6.9 1.9 1.9 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS (144 HK) 9.0 7.7 0.4 0.4 17.8 17.4 5.3 5.5 4.5 5.0 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LTD (1199 HK) 7.3 7.3 0.4 0.4 16.6 14.1 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.7 QINHUANGDAO PORT CO LTD (3369 HK) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA XIAMEN INTERNATIONAL PORT CO L (3378 HK) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg Price/Book chart Dividend Yield chart 1.0 17.0 0.9 15.0 0.8 0.7 13.0 0.6 11.0 0.5 0.4 9.0 0.3 7.0 0.2 0.1 5.0 0.0 3.0 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 PB Avg +2SD Div Yld Avg +2SD +1SD -1SD -2SD +1SD -1SD -2SD Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 2 Equity Research 15 December 2020 Company overview (as of 31 December 2019) Company description Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPH Trust) is the first publicly traded container port business trust. Listed on the Singapore Exchange, HPH Trust is affiliated with Hutchison Ports, the global leader in the container port industry by throughput and a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings Limited. HPH Trust owns interests in world class deep-water container port assets located in two of the world's busiest container port cities by throughput - Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China (PRC) - as well as certain port ancillary services and the economic benefits of river ports complementary to the deep-water container ports operated by HPH Trust. FY19 Throughput Volume by Ports FY19 Revenue By ports By geography YICT and HICT (57.0%) Mainland China (68.0%) HIT, COSCO-HIT, ACT (43.0%) Hong Kong (32.0%) Source: Company Source: Company Throughput through the years Dividends per share Throughput (m TEU) DPU (HK cents) 30 23.9 24.3 24.0 40.00 25 22.5 23.3 34.40 30.60 20 30.00 20.60 15 20.00 17.00 10 11.00 10.00 5 0 0.00 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company Source: Company 3 Equity Research 15 December 2020 Company financials Income Statement In Millions of HKD except Per Share FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 12 Months Ending 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 Revenue 12,547.4 11,869.1 11,480.8 11,374.1 11,120.9 - Cost of Revenue 4,575.1 4,251.0 4,131.6 4,143.5 3,881.6 Gross Profit 7,972.3 7,618.0 7,349.2 7,230.7 7,239.3 + Other Operating Income 248.3 71.0 32.2 129.1 96.4 - Operating Expenses 3,917.1 3,496.7 3,843.3 3,953.5 3,904.8 Operating Income or Losses 4,303.6 4,192.4 3,538.1 3,406.3 3,430.9 - Interest Expense 504.9 492.1 587.3 710.0 — - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -3.3 29.3 6.8 9.5 — - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -67.5 71.2 239.5 12,498.5 1,129.2 Pretax Income 3,869.5 3,599.8 2,704.5 -9,811.7 2,301.7 - Income Tax Expense (Benefit) 824.9 645.9 487.1 434.4 480.0 Income Before XO Items 3,044.6 2,954.0 2,217.5 -10,246.1 1,821.7 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Minority/Non Controlling Interests (Credits) 1,299.7 1,240.4 1,273.3 1,305.3 1,293.5 Net Income/Net Profit (Losses) 1,744.9 1,713.6 944.2 -11,551.3 528.2 Net Inc Avail to Common Shareholders 1,744.9 1,713.6 944.2 -11,551.3 528.2 Abnormal Losses (Gains) -152.8 4.3 5.6 12,306.1 0.0 Tax Effect on Abnormal Items 26.0 -0.7 -1.0 -161.0 0.0 Normalized Income 1,618.1 1,717.2 948.8 593.7 528.2 Basic Earnings per Share 0.2 0.2 0.1 -1.3 0.1 Basic Weighted Avg Shares 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 Diluted EPS Before Abnormal Items 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.2 0.2 0.1 -1.3 0.1 Diluted EPS 0.2 0.2 0.1 -1.3 0.1 Diluted Weighted Avg Shares 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 8,711.1 Profitability Ratios FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 12 Months Ending 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 Returns Return on Common Equity 4.02 4.09 2.32 -34.45 2.01 Return on Assets 1.52 1.51 0.84 -11.22 0.56 Return on Capital 3.58 3.55 2.89 -11.30 3.46 Return on Invested Capital 3.09 -1.82 2.72 0.70 3.10 Margins Operating Margin 34.30 35.32 30.82 29.95 30.85 Incremental Operating Margin 1,693.48 -16.39 -168.50 -123.57 — Pretax Margin 30.84 30.33 23.56 -86.26 20.70 Income before XO Margin 24.27 24.89 19.31 -90.08 16.38 Net Income Margin 13.91 14.44 8.22 -101.56 4.75 Net Income to Common Margin 13.91 14.44 8.22 -101.56 4.75 Additional Effective Tax Rate 21.32 17.94 18.01 — 20.85 Dvd Payout Ratio 171.74 155.55 190.05 — 181.41 Sustainable Growth Rate -2.88 -2.27 -2.09 — -1.63 Credit Ratios FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 12 Months Ending 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 Total Debt/EBIT 7.67 7.99 9.18 9.25 8.91 Net Debt/EBIT 6.08 6.32 7.27 7.32 6.85 EBIT to Interest Expense 8.52 8.52 6.02 4.80 3.19 Long-Term Debt/Total Assets 21.08 25.79 25.49 30.48 28.55 Net Debt/Equity 42.07 43.64 42.64 53.41 51.61 Source: Bloomberg 4 ANALYST DECLARATION: The analyst(s) who prepared this report certifies that the opinions contained herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her views about the securities of the listed entity, and that he or she has taken reasonable care to maintain independence and objectivity in respect of the opinions herein.
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