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Bioscore 2: Potential Distribution of Butterflies and Assessment of Environmental Pressures in Europe

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Bioscore 2: Potential Distribution of Butterflies and Assessment of Environmental Pressures in Europe Bioscore 2: Potential distribution of butterflies and assessment of environmental pressures in Europe Bioscore 2: Potential distribution of butterflies and assessment of environmental pressures in Europe Text Chris van Swaay, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele, Elisabeth Kühn, Alexander Harpke, Martin Wiemers, Martin Musche, Guy Pe’er, Constanti Stefanescu, Benoit Fontaine, Romain Julliard, David Roy, Tom Brereton, Lars B. Pettersson, Mikko Kuussaari, Janne Heliola, Reto Schmucki Reportnumber VS2014.003 Production De Vlinderstichting Butterfly Conservation Europe Mennonietenweg 10 P.O. Box 506 Postbus 506 NL-6700 AM Wageningen 6700 AM Wageningen E [email protected] T 0317 46 73 46 www.bc-europe.eu E [email protected] www.vlinderstichting.nl Commisioned by Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving Jaap Wiertz, Arjen Hinsberg, Onno Knol, Marjon Hendrikx Preferred citation Van Swaay, C.A.M., Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Kühn, E., Harpke, A., Wiemers, M., Musche, M., Pe’er, G., Stefanescu, C., Fontaine, B., Julliard, R., Roy, D., Brereton, T., Pettersson, L.B., Kuussaari, M., Heliola, J., Schmucki, R. (2014) Bioscore 2: Potential distribution of butterflies and assessment of environmental pressures in Europe. Report VS2014.003, De Vlinderstichting, Wageningen & Butterfly Conservation Europe December 2014 Revised version September 2015 Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden verveelvoudigden/of openbaar gemaakt d.m.v. druk, fotokopie, microfilm of op welke andere wijze dan ook zonder voorafgaande toestemming van De Vlinderstichting, noch mag het zonder een dergelijke toestemming gebruikt worden voor enig ander werk dan waarvoor het is vervaardigd. Content 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................4 2. Material and method .....................................................................................5 Approach .................................................................................................................... 5 Species selection ........................................................................................................ 6 Distribution data ........................................................................................................ 7 Butterfly Monitoring Data .......................................................................................... 9 Climate and soil models ........................................................................................... 10 Habitat preference ................................................................................................... 12 Dose-response functions ......................................................................................... 12 3. Results ......................................................................................................... 15 Species selection ...................................................................................................... 15 Climate and soil models ........................................................................................... 15 Habitat preference ................................................................................................... 17 Dose-response functions ......................................................................................... 17 4. Discussion .................................................................................................... 24 Climate and soil models ........................................................................................... 24 Habitat preference ................................................................................................... 24 Dose-response functions ......................................................................................... 24 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 28 Literature ............................................................................................................. 29 Annex I: Example of the analysis .......................................................................... 31 Annex II: R-scripts ................................................................................................ 35 TRIMmaps ................................................................................................................ 35 Cut-off ...................................................................................................................... 36 Habitat preference ................................................................................................... 39 Univariate analysis ................................................................................................... 42 Annex III: Habitat preference ............................................................................... 51 Annex IV: species list ........................................................................................... 54 De Vlinderstichting & BCE 2014 / Bioscore 2: butterflies 3 1. Introduction This report investigates the factors that explain the distribution and occurrence of 96 European butterflies and tries to establish the relationships between the occurrence of these species and stress factors influencing the quality of their habitat. Policy makers need tools to evaluate the effects of policy measures on the environment. Tools for evaluating effects of environmental policies on Europe’s biodiversity are scares. In 2005 the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) developed, together with several institutes, a first set of such tools in BioScore 1 (www.bioscore.eu). Since then PBL has used these tools in scenario studies. However, BioScore 1.0 wasn’t fit for all policy related questions and needed extension towards additions pressures and drivers. Furthermore the dose-response functions between environmental pressures and biodiversity in BioScore 1.0 were primarily based on expert judgment. BioScore 2 extends the models of BioScore 1 with field data and connects them closer to the needs of policy makers in Europe. The model, developed in close cooperation with Alterra, should make it possible to study the effects of future spatial environmental scenarios based on anticipated land-use changes, policies and strategies with environmental impacts, such as green infrastructure strategy, Natura 2000, restoration and rewilding projects , the Common Agricultural Policy, Nitrate Directive (affecting Nitrogen deposition) and Water Framework Directive (affecting water quality and sources of soil pollution). The main target of the model is on European biodiversity. However, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency wants also to use the tool the examine the situation in the Netherlands as part of the Atlantic region in NW Europe. The methods and their implementation are relevant throughout Europe. This report focuses on the information needed in BioScore 2.0 with respect to butterflies. Other reports deal with the other groups: plants, birds and mammals. De Vlinderstichting & BCE 2014 / Bioscore 2: butterflies 4 2. Material and method Main objective of this project is to develop a European model to study the effects of current and future spatial environmental scenarios regarding land-use and policy, with especial focus on the Netherlands as part of the Atlantic region in NW Europe. Approach In BioScore 2 models are not only developed for butterflies, but also for birds, mammals and plants (these assessments can be found in other reports). To ensure coherence among all taxonomic groups, the same methods and approaches are applied for all groups. Here, we employ and illustrate the methodology based on butterfly data. The basics for the approach are illustrated in figure 1: Make a species selection. Collect distribution data for these species. Use the distribution data together with climatic, soil and elevation variables to produce niche models. This results in maps of potential distribution of the species (figure 1) with information on the probability of occurrence of the species in each square of 5x5km. Make a selection of the locations which fulfill the needs of the species with respect to climate, elevation and soil conditions to derive a map of potential distribution map. This is done by establishing a cutoff value for the probability of occurrence. All squares with a higher probability are considered to be part of the range of the species. Derive dose-effect relationships between the selected butterfly species within their range and human threats on habitat quality and species occurrence/abundance. This was done based on the data of the European Butterfly Monitoring Schemes ((quantative relation in figure 1). In a later stage, these will be used to produce final models for scenario- and policy-studies in Bioscore 2. Figure 1: Structure of Bioscore 2. De Vlinderstichting & BCE 2014 / Bioscore 2: butterflies 5 Species selection In Bioscore 1.0, 77 butterfly species were assessed. For Bioscore 2 this list has been reviewed and expanded according to the following criteria (species do not have to fulfill all criteria): The species is assessed in Bioscore 1 (see www.bioscore.eu). The species is listed in the annexes II and IV of the Habitats Directive. The species is a ‘typical species’ for at least one of the habitats mentioned in Annex I of the Habitats Directive. The species occurs on the European Red List as either (Critically) Endangered (CR+ EN), Vulnerable (VU) or Near Threatened
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