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Ledgerstat Capital 2Q 2021 Letter

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Ledgerstat Capital 2Q 2021 Letter SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review “Well, when are you going to sell your Bitcoin? I look at them and I say, into what? Why would I ever sell the currency of the future for the currency of the past? That would be like saying, I’m going to take dollars and turn them into confederate dollars or are going to take Euros and turn them into French francs. No, you don’t want to do that!” -Tim Draper SoundMoney Strategy Performance The SoundMoney Strategy ended the second quarter of 2021 at $35,037, up 23% net of fees (1%) compared to Bitcoin, which is up 21% so far this year. Since inception, Nov 1, 2018, when Bitcoin’s price was $6,300, the Sound Money Strategy is up 593% net of fees and carry (1%/10%), while Bitcoin is up 456% by comparison. We have significantly outperformed Bitcoin net of fees by applying a long-term approach of being under-invested in bitcoin during the bear market, fully invested at the bottom and using minimal leverage in this current bull phase. For example, we increased our Bitcoin allocation to 145.66% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 when Bitcoin was below $10,000. At year-end, with Bitcoin at $29,000, the SoundMoney Strategy’s leverage dropped to 13% due to price appreciation. Because we are still early enough in this cycle, and the risk/reward of this network gaining in value remains favorable, we borrowed an additional 10% and bought more Bitcoin at $33,000. This month, we will add an additional 10% to our holdings during this sell-off below $35,000. Today, with Bitcoin at approximately $35,000, our research indicates that we remain in the midst of a bull cycle for bitcoin, which should take us through 2021. We are going to stick with our price targets of $100k by the end of September and $200k by year end. This is based on adoption trends and the ever-important fact that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin in existence. Despite the recent price collapse (down 50% from its most all-time high), the speed at which Bitcoin is being adopted supports a target value of $100,000 but we believe that target will be exceeded during this halving cycle. We plan on removing all leverage and taking advantage of other tools that allow us to mitigate some of the volatility that may occur should Bitcoin trade back down to and below its intrinsic value as defined by Plan B (for more information about Plan B see below) and some of the other models which we are using. LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review We will continue to use Unchained Capital to hold our collateral against our bitcoin. It is held in a multi-signature vault whereby we hold one of the three keys, and the bitcoin will not be re-hypothecated (lent out again). 2nd QTR YTD Inception (Nov '18) SoundMoney Strategy -45% 23% 593% Bitcoin -41% 21% 456% Gold 5% -6% 49% Gold Miners (GDXJ) 4% -14% 67% S&P 500 9% 16% 55% Berkshire Hathaway 9% 21% 27% Bitcoin’s Volatile Performance: “I want to buy an equity when 99% of the people disagree with me but everybody needs it, and nobody can stop it. That is how I described Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, even Microsoft in 2010.” -Michael Saylor 1 Over the course of the 2nd quarter, the price of Bitcoin moved from $59k to $65k to $29k to $35K. The move to $65K came as no surprise to most that follow Bitcoin closely. It seems that each market segment: retail, institutions, high net-worth, and ultra-high net-worth individuals were adopting Bitcoin. Unlike previous cycles, we even saw major life insurance companies and corporations adding to treasury. So why the 50% correction? I credit Dan Moorehead from Pantera and manager of the first Bitcoin Fund for helping me understand the trading dynamics of this past quarter2. It seems there has been a convergence of two factors: tax-day and the China ban of bitcoin. 1 Michael Saylor interview with Sven Henrich 2 Pantera Capital BlockChain Letter LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 2 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review Tax Day As you can see in the below chart, the week of May 17th was the largest weekly trading range in history of bitcoin. We have learned that Tax Day can have a strong impact on crypto prices. In the previous two previous big run-ups –2013 and 2017– Bitcoin peaked four months before Tax Day while hitting a low about a week before the respective Tax Days. We see prices decrease as we approach Tax Day because some holders of Bitcoin and other digital assets liquidate portions of their holdings to pay their tax bill. LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 3 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review China “bans” crypto: This is NOT the first time China has “banned” Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies: • China Bans Financial Companies from Bitcoin Transactions (Bloomberg, December 2013) • China bans banks from Bitcoin transactions (Financial Times, December 2013) • Bitcoin drops $500 after more reports China will ban cryptocurrency exchanges (Business Insider, September 2017) • China has banned ICOs (TechCrunch, September 2017) • Cryptocurrency exchanges officially dead in China (Forbes, November 2017) • China reiterates crypto bans from 2013 and 2017 (Yahoo! Finance, May 2021) • China bans financial, payment institutions from cryptocurrency business (Reuters, May 2021) But this ban was entirely different. I was among the many investors that expected this China “ban” to be like all the others. However, the market seemed to realize in mid- June that this ban was different. In fact, China was cracking down on Chinese miners (responsible for 65% of the hash rate) during this time. Just look at the drop in the hash rate as the Chinese miners were forced to dismantle their machines and move out of the country. This was the largest downward revision in difficulty in the history of Bitcoin and is evidence of a real China ban as oppose to the threats in the past. LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 4 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review In mid-June China also cracked down on Chinese exchanges, forcing them to exit the country. This combined disruption to the Bitcoin network has been enough to push Bitcoin price down to the lows of the year, around $30,000. Bitcoin is now selling at below trend and below our valuation models. LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 5 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review The China ban must be bad for Bitcoin, right? Well, history has shown that investors who sell on China “bans” usually end up missing some serious upside… China blocking Google and Facebook, in an attempt to censor the internet didn’t destroy the internet. The same is true with Bitcoin. Now let’s take a look at where we are with Bitcoin on a valuation basis. The Plan-B Model Otherwise known as the Stock-to-Flow model, Bitcoin is currently below the lower-bound. There has been frequent talk that the model is “broken.” However, keep in mind that other moments when the model appeared “broken,” happened to be great times to BUY. LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 6 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review The bitcoin price (colored dots) has a 95% correlation to its stock-to-flow ratio (white line): LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 7 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review Dan Moorehead has great graphs showing Bitcoin is currently trading 36% below its 11-year exponential trend. Bitcoin has only spent 20.3% of its history this far under trend valuation. Note also that during the most recent peak in April, Bitcoin went just a touch over trend value. As you can see, past peaks were many multiples of trend value. The year-on-year return never went off-the-chart like in past peaks. It’s currently trading at 281% year-on-year. This seems entirely plausible given the money printing that has occurred in the fight against Covid called the “Great Monetary Inflation.” LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 8 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review As we discussed in our previous letter, in the same way that we can see Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google as digital networks that have “dematerialized” a physical good/service, which in turn unleashes enormous economic value to the benefit of the equity holders, today, Bitcoin is the fastest growing digital network. It attained its $1 trillion dollar valuation in under twelve years, which is less than half the time it took each of these other digital networks. Below is our attempt at valuing the network. BITCOIN IS A DIGITAL MONETARY NETWORK Confidential – Not for distribution 35 3 Given that Bitcoin has “dematerialized” the scarcity of gold; making it harder, faster and better, we anticipate that Bitcoin will achieve at least gold’s market value of $12 trillion (over $500k/bitcoin) over the next seven years.4 3 Off The Chain Capital 4 LedgerStat Capital Q1 letter LedgerStatCapital.com ©2018 LedgerStat Capital, LLC 9 SoundMoney Strategy: Quarter 2 2021 Review I like to think of Bitcoin as humanity’s most important innovation, which is currently at the base of its S-curve of adoption. Based on this thesis, both its volatility and its long-term return potential appear certain. According to S-curve analysis, however long it takes a good/service to gain 10% penetration will be how long it takes it to achieve 90% penetration.
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