DOCSLIB.ORG

Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Trends of the Canadian Dollar

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Short-Term Volatility and Long-Term Trends of the Canadian Dollar Short-Term Volatility and Long-term Trends of the Canadian Dollar by Mahmuda K. Siddiqua B.A. (Honors in Economics), Mount Allison University, 1986 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Applied Economics & Finance Supervisor: Neil Ridler, PhD, Department of Economics Examining Board: Saiful Huq, PhD, Faculty of Business Muhammad Rashid, PhD, Faculty of Business Administration This thesis is accepted by the Dean of Graduate Studies THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK May 2009 © Mahmuda K. Siddiqua, 2009 Library and Archives Bibliotheque et 1*1 Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your We Votre r&terence ISBN: 978-0-494-80739-2 Our file Notre r6f6rence ISBN: 978-0-494-80739-2 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non­ support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extra its substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. ••1 Canada Abstract Many factors affect the value of the Canadian dollar, such as expectations, commodity prices, budget and current account deficits, debt ratios, interest rates, political stability, and speculation. Since the Canadian economy heavily relies on foreign trade and investment, fluctuations in the value of the Canadian dollar have far-reaching implications for the nation's economic growth and stability. In this thesis, an attempt is made to understand the complex nature of the foreign currency markets and how the Canadian dollar has performed in the last three decades. The study has found that commodity prices, interest rate differentials, diverging inflation rates, and political events - all have significant influences on the value of the dollar. The relative impact of each in part depends on the time horizon analyzed. Keywords: Exchange Rate Regime, Purchasing Power Parity, Hedging, World Trade Organization, Hard Currency. n Acknowledgement I would like to thank Dr. Neil Ridler for guidance and encouragement without which I would not have been able to finish this thesis. Every time I met him to discuss the thesis from its proposal stage to completion, Dr. Ridler made things appear easier than I thought. This helped me to stay focused and complete the research work. I would also like to thank Dr. Saiful Huq who read various drafts and provided valuable comments and suggestions that have improved the quality of the final version. I thank him for his interest in the topic and his help. Dr. Muhammad Rashid read the final version as an examiner, and pointed out some errors and made numerous suggestions for improvement, and that have been very helpful. HI TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ii Acknowledgement iii List of Tables vi List of Figures and Illustrations vii Chapter One: Introduction 1 Chapter Two: Exchange Rate Regimes, the Foreign Exchange Market and Performance of the Canadian Dollar 11 2.1. Introduction 11 2.2 Fixed versus Flexible Rates 13 2.2.1 Fixed Exchange Rates 14 2.2.2. Currency Boards 17 2.2.3. Flexible Exchange Rates 21 2.2.4. Advantages and Disadvantages of Fixed Exchange Rate 22 2.3. The Foreign Exchange Market 25 2.4. Historical Value of the Canadian Dollar 34 2.5. A Survey of Recent Research on the Value of the Canadian Dollar 40 2.6. Summary and Concluding Comments 44 Chapter Three: Theories of Exchange Rate Determination 47 3.1. Introduction 47 3.2. Various Theories of Foreign Exchange Rate 47 3.2.1. Purchasing Power Parity 48 3.2.2. The Asset Theory of Exchange Rate 56 3.3. Summary 62 Chapter Four: Factors Determining the Value of the Canadian Dollar on the Foreign Currency Market 63 4.1. Introduction 63 4.2. Sources and Nature of Data 64 4.3 Empirical Exercise 67 iv 4.3.1. OPEC Formation 70 4.3.2. Political Turmoil in Quebec (1976-1986) 72 4.3.4. Recent Commodity Boom (2003-2007) 75 4.4 Summary 75 Chapter Five: Summary, Policy Options and Concluding Comments 76 5.1. Summary of the Study 76 5.2. Policy Implications 79 5.3. Concluding Comments 82 References 85 Appendix A: A Sectoral Weights and Movements of Currencies 88 Curriculum Vitae v List of Tables 2.1 Countries with Currency Boards or Currency Board-Like System 20 2.2 Hard Currencies and Symbols 27 3.1 Big Mac Exchange Rate 53 4.1 Regression Results 71 A.l Sectoral Weights in US and Canadian Stock Indexes 88 A.2 Movements in Major Currencies versus US$ from 2002-2008 89 VI List of Figures and Illustrations 1 Price of One C$ in US$ 65 2 Price ofOneCS in JPY 66 3 Energy Price Index 66 4 Commodity Price Index 67 VII Chapter One: Introduction During the past two decades the process of globalization has accelerated and there has been increasing interest in studying the various aspects of this phenomenon. Although the term "globalization" may mean different things to different people, for the most part it represents an ever increasing trend of a rising volume of trade and a freer flow of capital. The value and volume of world trade has increased more than twenty-fold since 1950 with the value increasing from US$320 billion to US$6.8 trillion in 2006.1 One of the fundamental reasons for international trade between nations is to enjoy consumption possibilities not restricted by the nation's own production possibilities. Today, almost every nation participates in freer trade and enjoys a much better choice of goods in their markets. Labor migration has increased, but the number of people who are working for foreign companies while staying in their home countries has also grown in recent years. With the increase in merchandise trade and the mobility of labor, it is only natural to expect an increase in international financial market activity that encompasses the vast global foreign exchange market, the international money market, the international bond market, the international equity market, the rapidly growing global derivates market, and the gold market. In this environment, the discussion about the stability of currencies See "Trade and Globalization" at http://www.globalization 101 .org. 1 has assumed a greater significance. The introduction of the Euro2 to replace 12 currencies in Europe was driven by the desire to eliminate price fluctuations of traded goods and services. The trend in economic globalization can be measured by examining the growth of the volume of trade, foreign direct investments and capital mobility. All these economic indicators have consistently risen for both the developed as well as developing countries during the last two decades. Globalization is a mixed blessing and as such it has provided both opportunities and challenges. The nation states have become increasingly dependent on the rest of the world. The markets have become more integrated and prices of freely traded goods and services now respond more readily to the global factors that can affect the market. Thus a war in an oil-producing country, an election in the USA, a strike in Nigerian oil fields, or an accounting scandal inside a multinational can affect asset prices in major international financial markets. A change in the interest rates in a country that has a hard currency, defined as a currency that can be easily converted into other currencies and is a popular international medium of exchange, can impact financial markets all over the world. In Canada, the value of the Canadian dollar has recently been an important topic of discussion. Every day the press comments on changes in the value of the dollar. On a daily basis Canadians see or hear comments through radio, television, newspapers, and internet 2 The euro is the official currency of the European Union which currently consists of 15 states (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). It is the single currency for more than 320 million Europeans. Several other countries are going to gradually adopt the Euro. Euro as an accounting currency was introduced in 1999 and was replaced with physical currencies and coins on January 1, 2002. 2 about the exchange rate. In the border regions, posted signs on gas stations and gift shops indicate the exchange rate.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A History of the Canadian Dollar 53 Royal Bank of Canada, $5, 1943 in 1944, Banks Were Prohibited from Issuing Their Own Notes
    Canada under Fixed Exchange Rates and Exchange Controls (1939-50) Bank of Canada, $2, 1937 The 1937 issue differed considerably in design from its 1935 counterpart. The portrait of King George VI appeared in the centre of all but two denominations. The colour of the $2 note in this issue was changed to terra cotta from blue to avoid confusion with the green $1 notes. This was the Bank’s first issue to include French and English text on the same note. The war years (1939-45) and foreign exchange reserves. The Board was responsible to the minister of finance, and its Exchange controls were introduced in chairman was the Governor of the Bank of Canada through an Order-in-Council passed on Canada. Day-to-day operations of the FECB were 15 September 1939 and took effect the following carried out mainly by Bank of Canada staff. day, under the authority of the War Measures Act.70 The Foreign Exchange Control Order established a The Foreign Exchange Control Order legal framework for the control of foreign authorized the FECB to fix, subject to ministerial exchange transactions, and the Foreign Exchange approval, the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar Control Board (FECB) began operations on vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and the pound sterling. 16 September.71 The Exchange Fund Account was Accordingly, the FECB fixed the Canadian-dollar activated at the same time to hold Canada’s gold value of the U.S. dollar at Can$1.10 (US$0.9091) 70. Parliament did not, in fact, have an opportunity to vote on exchange controls until after the war.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Exchange and the Canadian Dollar: a Primer Jim Stanford
    Foreign Exchange and the Canadian Dollar: A Primer Jim Stanford The Canadian dollar has experienced dramatic fluctuations Why buy and sell foreign exchange? in recent years, rising from a low value of 62 cents U.S. in 2002, to levels that now meet or exceed parity with the U.S. dollar. These There are many purposes for which foreign exchange is required. fluctuations have had tremendous impacts on exports, investment, The most concrete reasons are to pay for imports from another and employment in many Canadian industries and regions. More country, or to visit that country and pay for things while you recently, currency issues have become highly controversial in travel there. Businesses might also need to convert currency in global economic diplomacy, too. For example, conflicts over order to pay for an investment in another country. In less concrete currencies (especially between the U.S. and China) dominated motivations, financial investors could convert currency in order the recent G20 summit in South Korea. Those conflicts were not to purchase financial assets (like bonds or corporate shares) in resolved, and hence uncertainty and conflict over exchange rates another country. In some cases, financiers purchase another will continue to mark much international interchange. nation’s currency purely for the purpose of holding that currency – hoping that its value (relative to other currencies) will increase, What determines exchange rates, and why do they matter? thus generating a speculative profit. This primer introduces some of the key issues and concepts, to help make sense of the volatility. What is the price of foreign exchange? What is foreign exchange? The price of one unit of a currency (say, a dollar) is the amount you must pay in another currency in order to buy it.
    [Show full text]
  • The Canadian Dollar and the Dutch and Canadian Diseases
    Volume 6•Issue 30•October 2013 THE CANADIAN DOLLAR AND THE DUTCH AND CANADIAN DISEASES* Serge Coulombe† Department of Economics, University of Ottawa SUMMARY With the spectacular rise of the dollar, along with rising natural-resource prices during the first decade of the 21st century, Canadians heard a great deal about Dutch disease. Many politicians and pundits blamed the phenomenon — in which a country’s currency, inflated by rising commodity prices, renders manufacturing exports increasingly uncompetitive — for rising unemployment in the Canadian manufacturing industry. But a close look at what happened during that period reveals that the Dutch disease mechanism was only part of the story. The other part, and quantitatively the most important, is an affliction of an altogether different providence: Canadian disease. Canadian disease is the economic trouble that can be caused by Canada’s extraordinarily heavy reliance on the United States as a trading partner. As a consequence, a sudden depreciation of the U.S, dollar will deteriorate the competitiveness of Canadian manufacturing exporters. Such a phenomenon was at work during the “Great Appreciation” of the Canadian dollar between 2002 and 2008 — the largest such appreciation on record in this country. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar is a phenomenon that is independent of the resource boom and the resulting consequences on the Canadian economy cannot be endorsed to a Dutch disease. Almost 2/3 of the employment losses that are exchange rate related in the trade-exposed manufacturers in Canada during the 2002–2008 period could be attributed to the Canadian disease. The Canadian dollar is partly driven by commodity prices, and the appreciation of the Canadian dollar exerts a negative impact on manufacturing industries that are exposed to international competition.
    [Show full text]
  • The Catalogue of Bronze Coinage of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia
    The Catalogue of Bronze Coinage of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia T. Schumann First Edition - 2021 New Brunswick The New Brunswick dollar's exchange rate was, like the Canadian dollar, $1 to the US dollar (p123, Haxby & Wiley, Coins of Canada, 1984), and $4.86⅔ to the British pound (p14, Haxby & Wiley, Coins of Canada, 1984). This meant that one cent was worth slightly less than a British halfpenny. HALF CENT The New Brunswick half cent was never ordered as the exchange rate did not necesitate it - rather, the Royal Mint accidentally produced the coins assuming that they were required like in Nova Scotia. Some are believed to have been shipped to Halifax though most were destroyed at the Royal Mint once the mistake had been discovered. The New Brunswick half cent was struck the same size as the British farthing and the obverse dies used were British farthing obverse dies. Obverse Details Use Reference Reverse Details Use Reference 1 Design: Portrait of Queen 1861 Freeman 3 A Design: A crown with the date 1861 Victoria surrounded by the Gouby C below, surrounded by a wreath of legend VICTORIA D:G: BRITT: Peck 3 roses and mayflowers with the REG: F:D: and 137 rim denomination HALF CENT denticles. above and NEW BRUNSWICK Designer: Leonard Charles Wyon below Engraver: Leonard Charles Designer : Horace Morehen Wyon Engraver: Specifications Composition Details Use Dimensions Details Use 1 Cu: 95% 1861 A Mass: 2.79g 1861 Sn: 4% Diameter: 20mm Zn: 1% Edge: plain Year Reverse Obverse Mint Mark Mintage Number Reference Year Reverse Obverse Mint Mark Mintage Number Reference 1861 Royal Mint, 222,800 NB.½C.1861.L.1A/1A London ONE CENT The New Brunswick one cent was struck the same size as the British halfpenny and the obverse dies used were British halfpenny obverse dies.
    [Show full text]
  • Money and Monetary Policy in Canada
    MONEY AND MONETARY POLICY IN CANADA MODULE 8: EXCHANGE RATES . “Money and Monetary Policy In Canada” by Gary Rabbior A publication of the Canadian Foundation for Economic Education Supported by the Bank of Canada Telephone 1-888-570-7610 110 Eglinton Ave. W. Suite 201 www.cfee.org Fax 416-968-0488 Toronto, ON, M4R 1A3 [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 8.1 The International Exchange of Currencies ______________________________________ 1 8.2 The Exchange Rate _______________________________________________________ 3 8.3 Canada's Economy—Relatively Open and Relatively Small ________________________ 6 8.4 Who Buys and Sells Canadian Dollars? ______________________________________ 10 8.5 Factors Influencing the Buying and Selling of Our Dollar __________________________ 12 8.6 Should One Canadian Dollar Equal One U.S. Dollar? ____________________________ 19 8.7 The Bank of Canada and the Exchange Rate __________________________________ 21 8.8 Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates _______________________________________ 22 Pg. 01 8.1 THE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE OF CURRENCIES 8.1 THE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE OF CURRENCIES The Value of Our Money Is Important to Canadians Canadians have a keen interest in the value and purchasing power of their money. Its value affects our ability to buy goods and services produced here at home. Canadians also buy goods and services from other countries. They don’t usually buy them directly from foreign producers—although that is becoming much more common with online shopping. But they do buy imported goods from retailers in Canada who bought them from foreign producers. Either way, Canadians spend a lot of money on imported goods and services. Economic Why Do Canadians Buy Goods and Services Produced in Insight: why Other Countries? Canadians buy There are various reasons why Canadians buy goods and services produced in other countries, such as: goods and services from • Some goods—for example, bananas—are simply not produced here in Canada.
    [Show full text]
  • Horizons US Dollar Currency ETF (DLR; DLR.U)
    Horizons US Dollar Currency ETF (DLR; DLR.U) The Only U.S. Dollar Currency ETF in Canada ETF Snapshot The Horizons US Dollar Currency ETF (“DLR”) seeks to reflect the price, in Canadian dollars, of the U.S. dollar, net of expenses, by investing primarily in U.S. cash and cash equivalents. Name: The U.S. dollar denominated version of this ETF, (“DLR.U”) has the same investment objective Horizons US Dollar Currency ETF but is priced and transacted in U.S. dollars. Launch Date: Invest in the Direction of the U.S. Dollar April 6, 2011 The relative value of the U.S. dollar to the Canadian dollar is an important consideration for Canadian investors. Many goods and services that Canadians use are in fact sourced in U.S. Ticker: dollars.Therefore, when the value of the Canadian dollar declines it usually means the real DLR; DLR.U (U.S. dollar purchasing power of a Canadian dollar denominated portfolio declines. denominated units) DLR offers a unique opportunity for investors to capture the positive performance of the Bloomberg Index Ticker: U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. USDCAD When the U.S. dollar appreciates relative to the Canadian dollar (i.e. the U.S. dollar/Canadian Management Fee:1 dollar exchange rate increases), the value of DLR is expected to increase proportionately. 0.45% Conversely, when the U.S. dollar depreciates against the Canadian dollar (i.e. the U.S. Investment Manager: dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate decreases), the value of DLR is expected to decrease Horizons ETFs Management proportionately.
    [Show full text]
  • The Canadian Dollar Under the Gold Standard
    The Canadian Dollar under the Gold Standard Canada, $10, 1912 Although Newfoundland issued gold coins as early as 1865, the Dominion of Canada did not do so until 1912–14, when (1854-1914) the recently established Royal Mint in Ottawa struck $5 and $10 pieces. When the redemption of Dominion notes into gold was suspended at the beginning of the First World War, the production of Canadian gold coins ceased. Operation of the gold standard export or import of gold. This implied that there was virtually no scope for the authorities to manage From 1 August 1854 when the Currency the exchange rate or to conduct an independent Act was proclaimed, until the outbreak of World monetary policy.52 War I in 1914, the Province of Canada, and subsequently the Dominion of Canada, was Fluctuations in market exchange rates continuously on a gold standard. Under this between the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar and standard, the value of the Canadian dollar was fixed the pound sterling, respectively, around their in terms of gold and was convertible upon demand. official values were generally limited by the gold It was also valued at par with the U.S. dollar, with “export” and “import” points. These points marked a British sovereign valued at Can$4.8666. As noted earlier, both U.S. and British gold coins were legal the exchange rates at which it was profitable for tender in Canada. individuals to take advantage of price differences between the market and official exchange rates With the gold standard in place, monetary through the export and import of gold from policy was largely “on automatic pilot.” Paper the United States or the United Kingdom.
    [Show full text]
  • Saskatchewan Provincial Budget 2021-22
    The Honourable Donna Harpauer Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCIAL BUDGET 21-2 2 PROTECT. BUILD. GROW. MINISTER’S MESSAGE I am pleased to table the 2021-22 Budget and supporting documents for public discussion and review. The 2021-22 Budget will protect Saskatchewan people through the pandemic. It provides direct funding to fight COVID-19, and record levels of investments in health care, education, social services and assistance and protection of persons and property. This Budget will build Saskatchewan. Capital investment of $3.1 billion will help our economy and create jobs. The 2021-22 Budget invests in new long-term care facilities, hospitals, schools, highways and vital municipal infrastructure. Crown corporations will see important capital projects move forward. This Budget will grow Saskatchewan through key investments and incentives, and it will keep life affordable for families. The 2021-22 Budget has a forecast deficit of $2.6 billion. We project the province’s fiscal path will steadily improve over the next three years with smaller deficits of $1.7 billion in 2022-23; $1.2 billion in 2023-24; and $770 million in 2024-25. A return to balance is expected in 2026-27. Revenue is forecast at $14.5 billion in this Budget, with most revenue categories forecast to increase compared to the latest 2020-21 forecast. Expense of $17.1 billion is projected in this Budget, an increase of about $1.0 billion compared to last year. This Budget protects lives and livelihoods by providing significant support, as more people become vaccinated and life begins to return to normal.
    [Show full text]
  • A History of the Canadian Dollar Provinces
    Appendix B Alternative Money This history has focused on legal tender money in Canada, that is to say money that has been approved by the authorities for paying debts or settling transactions. Canada also has a rich history of private money—coins and paper scrip produced by individuals and companies, which commanded sufficient confidence within a commu- nity that they circulated freely. “Bons” and tokens Montréal, George King note, 1772 Through much of the colonial period in This note and others issued by the local merchant George King were New France and later in British North America, denominated in “coppers,” a conventional designation for a halfpenny. merchants, and even individuals, issued paper scrip. The paper scrip was not backed by gold or silver but could be used to buy goods in the issuers’ stores—a sort of IOU, which quickly began to change hands as money. The value of notes and the extent of their circulation depended on the reputation of the issuer. In Upper and Lower Canada, such fractional notes (known as bons after “Bon pour,” the French for “Good for,” the first words on many such notes) circulated widely during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Fractional notes were also issued by merchants in the Atlantic Halifax, merchant note, 5 shillings, 1820 Until the practice was outlawed in 1820, Halifax merchants commonly issued personalized scrip in low denominations to meet the need for coinage. 92 A History of the Canadian Dollar provinces. The widespread acceptance of bons (also called “shinplasters”) helped to set the stage Bank of Montreal, halfpenny, 1839 for the issuance of paper currency by commercial The Bank of Montreal issued base- banks (Shortt 1986, 37).
    [Show full text]
  • Actionalberta 99 the CANADIAN ECONOMIC TEETER TOTTER IS
    From: Action Alberta [email protected] Subject: ActionAlberta #99 - THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC TEETER TOTTER IS FAILING ALBERTA! Date: February 12, 2020 at 7:33 PM To: Q.C. Alta.) [email protected] ACTION ALBERTA WEBSITE: Click here TWITTER: Click here FACEBOOK: Click here HELLO ALL: THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC TEETER TOTTER IS FAILING ALBERTA! Are you wondering what the heck is happening with TECK? Why is this already another existential crisis to Alberta? Will this drama ever end? The answer is NO. The Liberals nationalized and politicized the Alberta economy. The true reason behind their action though is not climate crisis but something more base and disturbing. It is simple political self-interest. That self-interest is found in how the Canadian economy really works and why it necessitates keeping the west down, so the east can prosper and vote Liberal. Canada has two major economies that act like a teeter-totter when tied together in a common currency. With a teeter totter of playground fame, as one end go up, the other end goes down and then it reverses to the joy of kids. The two Canadian economies act like a teeter-totter. At one end is the western economy, a resource-based economy, world class and highly productive that varies with commodity prices (oil and gas, agriculture, potash and lumber). At the other end is the eastern economy, which is more diversified but is fundamentally a branch plant economy of US subsidiaries. It competes with Michigan, Ohio and other nearby states. It trades with those same mid- west industrial states.
    [Show full text]
  • Saskatchewan Mid-Year Update
    Saskatchewan 2020 Budget – Update Economics and Strategy November 27, 2020 At mid-year, planned return to balance in 2024-25 remains unchanged By Marc Pinsonneault . Economic outlook: As a consequence of virus containment measures and the fall in oil process, an unprecedented disruption in economic activity occurred in March and April in Saskatchewan. An impressive total of 73,800 jobs were lost over these two months (-12.7%). Employment has since rebounded sharply and 56,000 jobs have been recovered as of October. The unemployment rate climbed from 6.2% in February to 12.5% in May before gradually retreating to 6.4% in October, when it was the lowest among the Canadian provinces. Still, the employment recovery has been uneven across industries. In accommodation and food services and in information, culture and leisure, employment in October was respectively 22% and 34% below pre-pandemic levels. The oil sector was impacted particularly hard. Year-to-date, drilling is down 43% while oil production dropped 9.5%. Crop production is estimated to have declined by roughly 3.5%. But there is also good news. So far in 2020, retail sales, housing starts and international goods exports have exceeded expectations. Potash production is expected to increase 5.4%. This allowed the Ministry of Finance to upwardly revise its real GDP forecast for 2020 from a 5.5% decline in the Q1 update to a 5.0% decrease. This is somewhat more optimistic than the private sector average forecast of 5.4% (including only forecasts issued since September). However, the growth forecast for next year has been revised down from Q1 due to lower expectations for oil production and investment.
    [Show full text]
  • TELUS Corporation $400,000,000 3.95% Notes, Series CAB Due February 16, 2050 $600,000,000 2.35% Notes, Series CAC Due January 27, 2028
    No securities regulatory authority has expressed an opinion about these securities and it is an offence to claim otherwise. This prospectus supplement, together with the short form base shelf prospectus dated May 13, 2020 to which it relates, as amended or supplemented and each document incorporated or deemed to be incorporated by reference in the short form base shelf prospectus, constitutes a public offering of securities offered pursuant hereto only in the jurisdictions where they may be lawfully offered for sale and therein only by persons permitted to sell such securities. This offering is not being made in the United States. The securities being offered hereunder have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, subject to certain exceptions, may not be offered or sold in the United States of America or to or for the account or benefit of U.S. persons (as defined herein). See “Plan of Distribution”. Information has been incorporated by reference in this prospectus supplement and the accompanying short form base shelf prospectus dated May 13, 2020 from documents filed with securities commissions or similar authorities in Canada. Copies of the short form base shelf prospectus and documents incorporated by reference therein may be obtained on request without charge from the Chief Legal and Governance Officer of TELUS at 510 W. Georgia St., 23rd Floor, Vancouver, British Columbia V6B 0M3 (telephone 604.695.6420). Copies of these documents are also available electronically on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval of the Canadian Securities Administrators (“SEDAR”), at www.sedar.com.
    [Show full text]