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Rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Election, 2015: Spatial Analysis of Party Performance

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Rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Election, 2015: Spatial Analysis of Party Performance International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC Rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Election, 2015: Spatial Analysis of Party Performance Dr. Anupama Verma Department of Geography, Shaheed Bhagat Singh (Eve) College, University of Delhi, New Delhi. ABSTRACT : The Aam Aadmi Party, born from the anti-corruption movement that began in 2011, is generating a new kind of hope and energy in the country especially among the youth which never witnessed before. Arvind Kejriwal formed the political party in November 2012 after breaking away from Anna Hazare. Nobody expected the Aam Aadmi Party to capture the imagination of the people of Delhi so quickly and become a big regional party in Delhi. In 2013 assembly election first time newly formed Aam Aadmi Party gave tough fight to established Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress. In a short time span Aam Aadmi Party came second in his first election held in 2013 and won 28 seats out of the total 70 seats. This study describes that the changing scenario of party competition and voter’s behaviour in Delhi is a very interesting problem area for study. The present study also reveals that how voter turnout largely influenced by the socio – economic conditions of electorates. In 2015 assembly election Aam Aadmi Party won 67 seats out of 70 and came out as a ruling party. Here attempt have been made to see the rise of Aam Aadmi Party and its performance in different constituencies of Delhi. For the analysis of voting data important indicators have been taken like to show the spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting parties’ areal structural and integrated approach were used. This gives a quick visual idea of the areal pattern of party stronghold. This study is based on secondary sources of data. Keywords: : Constituencies, Electorates, Party Competition, Voters Behaviour, Voter turnout. _________________________________________________________________________________________ I. Introduction: This study is based on Delhi’s Assembly election 2015 and emergence of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi’s politics. Victory of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly is certainly praiseworthy and surprising, particularly on the background that the party was born only few year ago. Aam Aadmi Party has certainly sparked the imagination of a large section of population. Delhi Assembly election 2015 showed rapid increase in voter turnout it was 67.47% which is almost 1.61% higher than 2013 assembly election. This is apparent from the increase in voter’s turnout that electorates casted their votes to choose right party for www.ijirssc.in Page 239 International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC governance. Participation in election process is important for voters to find solutions against bad governance rather than only raising issues. Governance in Delhi is complex because of its multi cultural identity with heterogeneity in socio-economic conditions of electorates. Only seven Chief Ministers have ruled over Delhi in its political history. Delhi Legislative Assembly was first constituted on 7 March 1952 under the Government of Part C States Act, 1951. The Assembly has 48 members and Chaudhary Brahm Prakash, became the first Chief Minister of Delhi.1 In 1993 Legislative Assembly election Bhartiya Janta Party won in Delhi after that from 1998 to till 2013 Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year reign as chief minister began, the longest by a Indian woman2. For political parties it is easy to attract voters by promising cheap water and electricity but far more difficult to deliver on those promises without making governance suffer. While voters in Delhi have certainly voted against miss- governance in recently held elections’ in 2013 and 2015, they might have been swayed by APP’s promises. In 2013 Assembly Election in Delhi the Bharatiya Janata Party won the election but failed to secure majority of seats to form a government. Aam Aadmi Party, in its first election got second position but it also failed to secure majority of seats; this resulted in a hung assembly. After the BJP refused to form a government in the hung assembly, the Aam Aadmi Party's Arvind Kejriwal became chief minister with "not conditional" support from the Indian National Congress. After almost one year of resignation of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, in assembly elections 2015, the AAP cavalry came bludgeoning and registered a historic win in the electoral history of Delhi. The BJP was at the receiving end this time. The 49 day rule of AAP and as a chief minister Arvind Kejriwal proved more than enough to enable them to win comfortably against an ever strengthening Bhartiya Janta Party and Indian National Congress. Aam Aadmi Party secured absolute majority in 2015 assembly election, winning 67 of the 70 seats and came out as a big ruling party. II. Objectives of the Study: The basic aims and objectives of the study are: To trace out the changing patterns of voting behaviour in Delhi. To understand the party performance in one constituency as compared to other 1 http://delhiassembly.nic.in/history_assembly 2 "Sheila Dikshit is India's longest serving woman CM". IBN Live, 9 December 2008. Retrieved 8 March 2011 from http:// ibnlive.in.com /news www.ijirssc.in Page 240 International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC constituency. To understand the causes of massive win of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. III.Methodology: The present study is basically based on secondary sources of data. The secondary data have been taken from: (i) The electoral data for (1993 and 1998) collected from the reports on the Assembly Election published by Election Commission of India, New Delhi (ii) Election in India Major Events & New Initiatives (1996-2000) published by Election Commission of India, Nirvachan Sadan, Ashoka Road, New Delhi (iii) Electoral Maps and voting data , Chief Electoral Office , Kashmiri Gate, Delhi (iv) Findings from surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. The areal structural approach is used to show the spatial patterns of voting like spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting parties. Beside this integrated approach applied to represent the spatial structure of voting behavior as revealed in election results and to show the swings in percentage of vote share of political parties in different elections. This is based on highly generalized voting data. IV.Study Area: Delhi, the national capital of India, is situated on the west bank of the river Yamuna. Delhi shares its borders with Uttar Pradesh to the east and with Haryana to the north, west and south. It is a metropolitan region and is spread over 1,484 sq km. Constitutionally Delhi is a union territory3. Seventy Assembly constituencies of Delhi were selected for the purpose of study, out of which 12 are reserved constituencies. These came into existence after the delimitation of constituencies in 2008. Under the general category, Vikas Puri assembly constituency has the largest number of electors (325246), whereas Delhi Cantt has the least (132233). Under the SC category, the Bawana constituency holds the largest electorate, with a total of 303108 voters, whereas the Ambedkar Nagar constituency has the smallest number (139676). Nerela is the largest constituency in terms of area (143.42 sq km) with 241032 total electors. The number of electors involved has increased rapidly. There were nearly 744668 electors in 1952 the first assembly election in Delhi, their number went up to over 83, 64,733 electors in 1998 assembly election. In 2008 assembly election the total number of electors went up to 10726573 and the total polling percentage was 57.58%. While in 2013 assembly election total 65.86% votes were polled and the 11936360 number of electors were recorded. A record 3 www.elections.in/delhi www.ijirssc.in Page 241 International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC 67.47% turnout was registered and around 8942372 valid votes were polled in 2015 assembly election in Delhi. Table 1: Delhi Assembly Constituencies 2008-15 11.Nangloij 21.Matia 31.Vikasp 61.Gandhi 1.Narela 41.Jangpura 51.Kalkaji at Mahal uri Nagar 12.Mangol 22.Ballima 32.Uttam 42.Kasturba 52.Tughlaqa 62.Shahdar 2.Burari puri ran Nagar Nagar bad a (SC) 23.Karol 63.Seema 33.Dwark 43.Malviya 3.Timarpur 13.Rohini Bagh 53.Badarpur puri a Nagar (SC) (SC) 24.Patel 4.Adarsh 14.Shalimar 34.Matial 44.R.K.Pura 64.Rohtash Nagar 54.Okhla Nagar - bagh a m Nagar (SC) 55.Trilokpu 15.Shakurb 25.Moti 35.Najafg 65.Seelam 5.Badli 45.Mehrauli ri asti Nagar arh pur (SC) 26.Madip 16.Tri 36.Bijwas 56.Kondli 6. Rithala ur 46.chhatarpur 66.Ghonda Nagar an (SC) (SC) 7.Bawana 17.Wazirpu 27.Rajori 57.Patpargan 67.Babarp 37.Palam 47.Deoli(sc) (SC) r Garden j ur 68.Gokulp 18.Model 28.Hari 38.Delhi 48.Ambedka 58.Laxmi 8.Mundka ur Town Nagar Cantt. r Nagar(sc) Nagar (SC) 39.Rajein 19.Sadar 29.Tilak 49.Sangam 59.Vishwas 69.Mustuf 9.Kirari der Bazar Nagar Vihar Nagar abad Nagar 10.Sultanp ur 20.Chandni 30.Janakpu 40.New 50.Greater 60.Krishna 70.Karawa Majra Chowk ri Delhi Kailash Nagar l Nagar (SC) Source: Chief Electoral Office, New Delhi. www.ijirssc.in Page 242 International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC Map 1.1 Source: General Election 2013 and 2015 to Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical details, Chief Electoral Officer, Kashmiri Gate, Delhi.
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