Rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Election, 2015: Spatial Analysis of Party Performance

Dr. Anupama Verma Department of Geography, Shaheed Bhagat Singh (Eve) College, University of Delhi, New Delhi.

ABSTRACT : The Aam Aadmi Party, born from the anti-corruption movement that began in 2011, is generating a new kind of hope and energy in the country especially among the youth which never witnessed before. Arvind Kejriwal formed the political party in November 2012 after breaking away from Anna Hazare. Nobody expected the Aam Aadmi Party to capture the imagination of the people of Delhi so quickly and become a big regional party in Delhi. In 2013 assembly election first time newly formed Aam Aadmi Party gave tough fight to established Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress. In a short time span Aam Aadmi Party came second in his first election held in 2013 and won 28 seats out of the total 70 seats. This study describes that the changing scenario of party competition and voter’s behaviour in Delhi is a very interesting problem area for study. The present study also reveals that how voter turnout largely influenced by the socio – economic conditions of electorates. In 2015 assembly election Aam Aadmi Party won 67 seats out of 70 and came out as a ruling party. Here attempt have been made to see the rise of Aam Aadmi Party and its performance in different constituencies of Delhi. For the analysis of voting data important indicators have been taken like to show the spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting parties’ areal structural and integrated approach were used. This gives a quick visual idea of the areal pattern of party stronghold. This study is based on secondary sources of data.

Keywords: : Constituencies, Electorates, Party Competition, Voters Behaviour, Voter turnout. ______I. Introduction:

This study is based on Delhi’s Assembly election 2015 and emergence of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi’s politics. Victory of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly is certainly praiseworthy and surprising, particularly on the background that the party was born only few year ago. Aam Aadmi Party has certainly sparked the imagination of a large section of population. Delhi Assembly election 2015 showed rapid increase in voter turnout it was 67.47% which is almost 1.61% higher than 2013 assembly election. This is apparent from the increase in voter’s turnout that electorates casted their votes to choose right party for

www.ijirssc.in Page 239

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC governance. Participation in election process is important for voters to find solutions against bad governance rather than only raising issues. Governance in Delhi is complex because of its multi cultural identity with heterogeneity in socio-economic conditions of electorates. Only seven Chief Ministers have ruled over Delhi in its political history. Delhi Legislative Assembly was first constituted on 7 March 1952 under the Government of Part C States Act, 1951. The Assembly has 48 members and Chaudhary Brahm Prakash, became the first Chief Minister of Delhi.1 In 1993 Legislative Assembly election Bhartiya Janta Party won in Delhi after that from 1998 to till 2013 Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year reign as chief minister began, the longest by a Indian woman2. For political parties it is easy to attract voters by promising cheap water and electricity but far more difficult to deliver on those promises without making governance suffer. While voters in Delhi have certainly voted against miss- governance in recently held elections’ in 2013 and 2015, they might have been swayed by APP’s promises. In 2013 Assembly Election in Delhi the Bharatiya Janata Party won the election but failed to secure majority of seats to form a government. Aam Aadmi Party, in its first election got second position but it also failed to secure majority of seats; this resulted in a hung assembly. After the BJP refused to form a government in the hung assembly, the Aam Aadmi Party's Arvind Kejriwal became chief minister with "not conditional" support from the Indian National Congress. After almost one year of resignation of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, in assembly elections 2015, the AAP cavalry came bludgeoning and registered a historic win in the electoral history of Delhi. The BJP was at the receiving end this time. The 49 day rule of AAP and as a chief minister Arvind Kejriwal proved more than enough to enable them to win comfortably against an ever strengthening Bhartiya Janta Party and Indian National Congress. Aam Aadmi Party secured absolute majority in 2015 assembly election, winning 67 of the 70 seats and came out as a big ruling party.

II. Objectives of the Study: The basic aims and objectives of the study are:  To trace out the changing patterns of voting behaviour in Delhi.  To understand the party performance in one constituency as compared to other

1 http://delhiassembly.nic.in/history_assembly 2 "Sheila Dikshit is India's longest serving woman CM". IBN Live, 9 December 2008. Retrieved 8 March 2011 from http:// ibnlive.in.com /news www.ijirssc.in Page 240

III.Methodology:

The present study is basically based on secondary sources of data. The secondary data have been taken from: (i) The electoral data for (1993 and 1998) collected from the reports on the Assembly Election published by Election Commission of India, New Delhi (ii) Election in India Major Events & New Initiatives (1996-2000) published by Election Commission of India, Nirvachan Sadan, Ashoka Road, New Delhi (iii) Electoral Maps and voting data , Chief Electoral Office , Kashmiri Gate, Delhi (iv) Findings from surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. The areal structural approach is used to show the spatial patterns of voting like spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting parties. Beside this integrated approach applied to represent the spatial structure of voting behavior as revealed in election results and to show the swings in percentage of vote share of political parties in different elections. This is based on highly generalized voting data. IV.Study Area:

Delhi, the national capital of India, is situated on the west bank of the river Yamuna. Delhi shares its borders with Uttar Pradesh to the east and with Haryana to the north, west and south. It is a metropolitan region and is spread over 1,484 sq km. Constitutionally Delhi is a union territory3. Seventy Assembly constituencies of Delhi were selected for the purpose of study, out of which 12 are reserved constituencies. These came into existence after the delimitation of constituencies in 2008. Under the general category, Vikas Puri assembly constituency has the largest number of electors (325246), whereas Delhi Cantt has the least (132233). Under the SC category, the Bawana constituency holds the largest electorate, with a total of 303108 voters, whereas the Ambedkar Nagar constituency has the smallest number (139676). Nerela is the largest constituency in terms of area (143.42 sq km) with 241032 total electors. The number of electors involved has increased rapidly. There were nearly 744668 electors in 1952 the first assembly election in Delhi, their number went up to over 83, 64,733 electors in 1998 assembly election. In 2008 assembly election the total number of electors went up to 10726573 and the total polling percentage was 57.58%. While in 2013 assembly election total 65.86% votes were polled and the 11936360 number of electors were recorded. A record

3 www.elections.in/delhi www.ijirssc.in Page 241

Table 1: Delhi Assembly Constituencies 2008-15

11.Nangloij 21.Matia 31.Vikasp 61.Gandhi 1.Narela 41.Jangpura 51.Kalkaji at Mahal uri Nagar 12.Mangol 22.Ballima 32.Uttam 42.Kasturba 52.Tughlaqa 62.Shahdar 2.Burari puri ran Nagar Nagar bad a (SC) 23.Karol 63.Seema 33.Dwark 43.Malviya 3.Timarpur 13.Rohini Bagh 53.Badarpur puri a Nagar (SC) (SC) 24.Patel 4.Adarsh 14.Shalimar 34.Matial 44.R.K.Pura 64.Rohtash Nagar 54.Okhla Nagar - bagh a m Nagar (SC) 55.Trilokpu 15.Shakurb 25.Moti 35.Najafg 65.Seelam 5.Badli 45.Mehrauli ri asti Nagar arh pur (SC) 26.Madip 16.Tri 36.Bijwas 56.Kondli 6. Rithala ur 46.chhatarpur 66.Ghonda Nagar an (SC) (SC) 7.Bawana 17.Wazirpu 27.Rajori 57.Patpargan 67.Babarp 37.Palam 47.Deoli(sc) (SC) r Garden j ur 68.Gokulp 18.Model 28.Hari 38.Delhi 48.Ambedka 58.Laxmi 8.Mundka ur Town Nagar Cantt. r Nagar(sc) Nagar (SC) 39.Rajein 19.Sadar 29.Tilak 49.Sangam 59.Vishwas 69.Mustuf 9.Kirari der Bazar Nagar Vihar Nagar abad Nagar 10.Sultanp ur 20.Chandni 30.Janakpu 40.New 50.Greater 60.Krishna 70.Karawa Majra Chowk ri Delhi Kailash Nagar l Nagar (SC)

Source: Chief Electoral Office, New Delhi.

www.ijirssc.in Page 242

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC

Map 1.1

Source: General Election 2013 and 2015 to Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical details, Chief Electoral Officer, Kashmiri Gate, Delhi.

V. Result and Discussion : A] Party performance: Delhi Assembly Election 2015

The present study describes the nature of party competition; Indian politics commonly has been modeled as a one party dominant or a multi-party system. After the 1993 election in 1998, 2003 and 2008 Vidhan Sabha election Indian National Congress emerged as a big www.ijirssc.in Page 243

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC ruling party. Table 2 shows that in 2013 assembly election Aam Aadmi Party gave very tough fight to Bhartiya Janta Party and Congress and emerged as a second largest party while Bhartiya Janta Party emerged as a largest party but failed to secure majority of votes to form government. After that again in 2015 assembly election Aam Adami Party secured majority of votes and this time they got more than enough seats to form government. In 2013 assembly election around 880 contestants in fray and in 2015 assembly election total 673 contestants in fray, this shows very high competition. Moreover , it is clear that the larger the number of candidates the greater is the competitiveness . Bhartiya Janta Party won 31 seats with highest 33.07% vote share and Aam Aadmi Party secured 29.49% votes. Beside that the Indian National Congress had won 8 out of 70 contested seats and received a vote share of 24.55% in 2013 assembly election. While in 2015, the political existence and scenario has completely changed. Indian National Congress failed to win even a single seat in Delhi assembly poll. The Indian National Congress has got only 9.65% vote share with over 8.4 lakh votes. That is almost a loss of around 15% vote share. Table 2 represents that in Delhi assembly elections especially 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party proved its stronghold position almost all over Delhi the Bhartiya Janta Party was at the receiving end this time. Aam Aadmi Party won 67 seats out of 70 and defeated Bhartiya Janta Party and Indian National Congress with a big margin of votes.

Table: 2 Party Wise Results (2013-15)

Party Names Seats Won Vote Share %

Years 2013 2015 2013 2015

AAP 28 67 29.49 54.34

BJP 31 03 33.07 32.19

INC 08 00 24.55 9.65

IND 01 00 2.93 0.53

Janta Dal(United) 01 00 0.87 0.02

Shiromani Akali Dal 01 00 0.91 0.50

Source: Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical Details 2015 Chief Electoral Officer, Delhi

www.ijirssc.in Page 244

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC

Figure: 1.1

Source: Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical Details 2015 Chief Electoral Officer, Delhi

B] Spatial Analysis of Party performance in different constituencies Aam Aadmi Party on Delhi's electoral scene upset the traditional support base of various political parties across various castes and communities. The usual pattern of upper castes voting mainly for the BJP and the OBCs and Dalits voting largely for the Congress stood disrupted. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal wins from New Delhi constituency with 64.14% votes and defeated BJP candidate Nupur Sharma from a big margin of around 35.41% votes. In Some constituencies AAP won election with above 60% of votes like: Burari, Kirari, Sultanpur Majra(sc), Vikaspuri, New Delhi, Deoli(sc), Ambedkar Nagar(sc), Sangam Vihar, Tughlkabad, Okhla and Seemapuri(sc). It also reflects that APP has stronghold position in various reserved constituencies. Spatial distribution of turnout reveals that participation was notably higher in poorer seats, in the northeast and in the eastern constituencies. Most of the seats that recorded the highest voter turnout are reserved seats, like Seemapuri and Gokalpur in the East, Karol Bagh and Patel Nagar in the Centre-West, or Sangam Vihar, Deoli and Ambedkar Nagar in South Delhi. A brief look at the geography of the results represents that AAP’s vote share distribution is remarkably consistent. On 54 seats AAP won election within the category of www.ijirssc.in Page 245

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC moderate to high (45-60%) vote share covering all parts of Delhi, including some of the richest and poorest constituencies. This time INC completely failed in Delhi to win the voters trust towards their policies. It is remarkable to observe that almost all over Delhi INC reported on third position in some constituencies INC secured lowest votes between (2-3%) like- Rithala, Narela and Rohini (north west Delhi district) and Burari (north Delhi district). In geographical terms it reveals that, the INC drastically reduced his vote share in various constituencies of Delhi. While it is also interesting that in some constituencies INC reported on second position where it secured 25-30% votes such as- Mangolpuri (west Delhi), Badli (north west Delhi), Matia Mahal (central Delhi) and Mustafabad (north east Delhi) . Map 1.2 represents that AAP has stronghold position all over Delhi and BJP won only three seats in Delhi these were Rohini(49.83%), Mustafabad(35.33%) and Vishwas Nagar(45.16%). BJP candidate Vijender Gupta won the Rohini seat, defeated AAP's C.L. Gupta with a margin of 5,367 votes. The 60- year-old BJP leader Jagdish Pradhan reclaimed the Mustafabad seat ,with a margin of 6,031 votes . He defeated Congress’ Hasan Ahmad who had won this seat in 2013 assembly election. Beside this the BJP leader also retained the Vishwas Nagar seat in east Delhi, which he had won with a margin of 10,158 votes and defeated AAP’s candidate Dr. Atul Gupta from a high margin. Aam Aadmi Party proved his stronghold position in slum areas of different constituencies, For example- Moti Nagar with (25,021 jhuggis), Wazirpur(13,736jhuggis), R.K.Puram(10,894 jhuggis) and Tughlakabad (23,495 jhuggis) where Bhartiya Janta Party won in 2013 assembly election4. Arvind Kejriwal’s 49 day tenure changed the voter’s mind he promised 20,000 litre of water free for every household and provide rebate in electricity tariff up to 400 units of consumption of electricity. The positive results came for Aam Aadmi Party in 2015 assembly election when Aam Aadmi Party captured all these constituencies. Accept these constituencies where slums voters came out as a game changer, Seemapuri is yet another slum area, residents here are mostly labour class and on the other hand New Delhi, Kusumpur Pahari slum area is home of mostly to poor migrants from UP, Bihar, Orissa and Assam. Besides that Sangam Vihar and Kathputli slum colony near shadipur Depot, Patel Nagar in all

4 http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/slums-workers-hold-key-to-winning-delhi.

www.ijirssc.in Page 246

Map 1.2

Source: Chief Electoral Office, Delhi.

www.ijirssc.in Page 247

Performance of political parties Assembly Election 2015 in Delhi

Parties Vote –share in percentage among different age group 18-22years 23-35years 36-45years 46-55years 56+

INC 10 8 7 11 16

BJP 26 32 34 34 36

AAP 63 57 54 50 45

Others 1 3 5 5 3

Muslim vote- share in % Dalit vote-share in %

INC 20 06

BJP 02 20

AAP 77 68

others 01 06

Source: Lokniti CSDS, Delhi

In different age groups, AAP’s vote share was significantly higher than that of BJP. It is clear from the above table that APP won the support of all segments of society. While this is also true that, the party’s support base comprised mainly younger and poorer voters, according to a post-poll survey by Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The survey was conducted after voting ended, among 2,060 voters in 120 locations across 24 Assembly constituencies of Delhi. Table 3 shows that AAP’s vote share was the highest among young voters (aged 18 to 22) it was recorded above 60%. The party’s vote share then gradually declines by age, falling to 45% among voters of (above 56) age group (see figure 1.2). AAP’s vote share was highest among muslims and dalits voters. In the case of muslims in particular, the growth in the AAP’s popularity has been remarkable, going from 12 per cent in 2013 to 77 per cent in 2015 (see figure1.4). In the category of dalit vote share AAP vote share was highest 68% in 2015 as compared to other political parties (see figure 1.3).

www.ijirssc.in Page 248

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC

Figure: 1.2

Figure: 1.3 Figure: 1.4 Source (Fig.1.2, 1.3 &1.4): Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi. C] Massive Win of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi The victory of AAP is a fairy tale comeback for a party and a leader after the 49-day government in Delhi. After the 2014 Lok Sabha election Kejriwal started with doing the unthinkable. He tendered an apology to the Delhi voters claiming that he had made a mistake and not any crime by resigning in 49 days. Aam Aadmi Party presents his work-report among the voters and explained how corruption had come down during his brief rule. The strategy worked with voters returning AAP with a greater mandate. In 2015 assembly election voters decided to give him one more chance. Aam Aadmi Party’s door-to-door campaign, promising alternative forms of governance driven by innovative ideas such as “constituency based manifestos” and other methods were responsible for their successes in various constituencies. Some important facts responsible for Aam Aadmi Party’s overwhelming Victory in Delhi are: www.ijirssc.in Page 249

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC

1) Kejriwal's apology and reinvention and fighting elections on his name. 2) APP Started campaigning 3-4 months back and gave importance to local and constituency specific issues. 3) Party’s stand on Anti-corruption bill along with the promise of slashing of power and water tariffs etc. 4) Collapse of Congress, voters wants change. 5) Dalits, Muslims and the poor moved to AAP, giving the party a major boost. 6) BJP’s negative campaign towards APP. 7) Overreliance on Narendra Modi. The Narendra Modi card failed badly in Delhi. 8) Kiran Bedi's projection as CM was also failed against Arvind Kejriwal. 9) Kejriwal was called "bhagoda" (runaway) by his rivals but he never shied away from talking on the opposition.

VII.Conclusion : Indian National Congress which ruled Delhi for three straight terms before it was defeated by the debutant AAP in 2013 is not winning a single seat. In 2013 AAP President Arvind Kejriwal defeated Sheila Dikshit in New Delhi constituency with a huge margin of over 25,000 votes. On the other hand BJP also fails to capitalise the Modi Wave and fails to emerge as a single largest party in 2015 assembly election. The above study also reveals various important facts such as- (i) 2015 assembly election shows rapid increase in voter turnout it went up to 67.47% as compared to 2013 and 2008 assembly elections. (ii) It was found that reserved constituencies also showed high and very high electoral participation. (iii) In 2015 assembly election AAP emerged as big party that represents all sections of the society and gets support from all sections. It is also clear from the above study that party achieved success to win voters faith and touched various common issues of development related with the life of a ‘common man’. In brief Aam Aadmi Party came out as a game- changer and proved the point that clean politics and affordable politics is possible.

References :

[1] Johnston, R.(2002),“Manipulating Maps and Winning Elections: Measuring the Impact of Malapportionmentand Gerrymandoring”, Political Geography, Vol. 21,No. 1. [2] Taylor, P.J. and Johnston,R.J.(1979), “Geography of Elections”, London: Croom Helm, [3] Rama Devi, V.S. and Mendiratta S.K.(2000), “How India votes Elections laws Practice and procedure”, New Delhi: Butter Worths. [4] Dwivedi, R.L. (1997), “Fundamentals of Political Geography”, Allahabad. Chaitanaya Publishing House. [5] Sinha, M. and Ray, A.(1995) “Political Geography”, Allahabad: Horizon Publishers. www.ijirssc.in Page 250

International Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in Science Society and Culture(IJIRSSC) Vol: 2, Issue:1, (June Issue), 2016 ISSN: (P) 2395-4345, (O) 2455-2909 © IJIRSSC [6] “The Aam Aadmi Party's win in Delhi: Dissecting it through Geographical Information Systems”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 48, Issue No. 52, 28 Dec, 2013, from www.epw.in/journal [7] “Kejriwal promises to make Delhi graft-free in 5 years”, The Hindu, New Delhi, February 14, 2015 from http://www.thehindu.com [8] “10 reasons behind Aam Aadmi Party's massive win in Delhi”, News18, February 10, 2015 from http://www.news18.com/news/india/ [9] http://www.lokniti.org/assembly-elections-pre-poll-study [10] www.indianexpress.com [11] www.csds.in/lokniti

Abbreviations INC- Indian National Congress BJP- Bhartiya Janta Party AAP- Aam Aadmi Party J D(U)- Janta Dal (United) CSDS- Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

------Foot note 1. http://delhiassembly.nic.in/history_assembly 2 "Sheila Dikshit is India's longest serving woman CM". IBN Live, 9 December 2008. Retrieved 8 March 2011 from http:// ibnlive.in.com /news

3.www.elections.in/delhi

4 http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/slums-workers-hold-key-to-winning-delhi