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Orbital Traffic Management Study Orbital Traffic Management Study Final Report 21 November 2016 Prepared for: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Headquarters Prepared by: Science Applications International Corporation . Report on Space Traffic Management Assessments, Frameworks and Recommendations In reply to Public Law No. 114-90, “U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act” Title I, “Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship” Section 109, “Orbital Traffic Management” 21 November 2016 Produced by: Authors: Owen Brown, Ph.D., SAIC Travis Cottom, SAIC Michael “Mick” Gleason, Ph.D., SAIC Matthew Hallex, SAIC Andrew Long, SAIC Edgar Rivera, SAIC David Finkleman, Ph.D., SkySentry, LLC. Theresa Hitchens, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, UMD Moriba Jah, Ph.D., University of Arizona David Koplow, J.D., Georgetown University Law Center Ray Sedwick, Ph.D., James Clark School of Engineering, UMD Orbital Traffic Management Study – Final Report to NASA HQ – 18 November 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................... i List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... iv 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Definition of Terms .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Risks: Driving the Need for an Improved Space Traffic Safety Governance Framework ......... 3 1.3.1 Consequences of Space Traffic Safety Incidents .......................................................... 3 1.3.2 Likelihood of Orbital Collision and Breakup ................................................................. 5 1.3.3 Assessing Risk and Applying Mitigation Strategies ...................................................... 7 1.3.4 Issues for Consideration in Risk Mitigation Efforts ...................................................... 7 1.4 Assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 10 1.5 Constraints ............................................................................................................................. 12 1.6 Objectives of a Space Traffic Safety Governance Framework ............................................... 12 1.7 Framework Conceptual Model .............................................................................................. 13 2.0 Presentation of Framework Alternatives ......................................................................................... 15 1. Private Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Coordination .......................................................... 16 2. DOD-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Data Sharing ................................................... 17 3. Civil-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Facilitation ....................................................... 18 4. Civil-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Coordination .................................................... 20 5. Civil-Based Space Traffic Management ........................................................................................ 21 3.0 Assessment of Framework Alternatives ........................................................................................... 22 3.1 Assessment of Alternative Space Traffic Safety Governance Framework ............................. 23 3.1.1 Private Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Coordination (Option 1) ...................... 23 3.1.2 DOD-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Data Sharing (Status Quo, Option 2) .............................................................................. 24 3.1.3 Civil-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Facilitation (Option 3) ................... 24 3.1.4 Civil-Based Space Traffic Safety Monitoring and Coordination (Option 4) ................ 25 3.1.5 Civil-Based Space Traffic Management (Option 5) .................................................... 25 4.0 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIX A Assessment of Best Practices and Industry Standards ..................................................... A-1 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... A-1 Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines and Practices ....................................................................... A-1 International Organization for Standardization ............................................................................. A-2 NASA ............................................................................................................................................... A-3 Department of Defense .................................................................................................................. A-4 i Orbital Traffic Management Study – Final Report to NASA HQ – 18 November 2016 New Missions for Consideration .................................................................................................... A-4 Private Best Practices, Guidelines, and Standards ......................................................................... A-5 Observations and Conclusions ....................................................................................................... A-5 APPENDIX B Assessment of Current Statutory Authorities and Regulations ......................................... B-1 Federal Communications Commission ............................................................................................ B-1 Department of Transportation ........................................................................................................ B-2 Department of Commerce .............................................................................................................. B-3 APPENDIX C Treaties and Other (legally-binding) International Agreements ........................................ C-1 Treaties and other (legally-binding) International Agreements ...................................................... C-1 Space Traffic Management Requirements ...................................................................................... C-1 Orbital Debris ................................................................................................................................... C-3 Non-Binding International Arrangements ....................................................................................... C-3 Evolving Non-Binding Space Traffic Management and Orbital Debris Requirements .................... C-3 Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) – Working Group on Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space, 2010-2018 ....................................................................................... C-4 COPUOS Legal Subcommittee: New Agenda Item on Space Traffic Management (STM) ............... C-6 UN Group of Governmental Experts on Transparency and Confidence-Building in Outer Space Activities. 2011-2013 ....................................................................................................................... C-7 UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space ... C-8 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation ITU-R S.1003.2 (12/2010): Environmental Protection of the Geostationary-Satellite Orbit ...................................................... C-9 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... C-9 APPENDIX D Assessment of Federal Government Space Traffic Management and Space Situational Awareness Assets ...................................................................................................................................... D-1 Mission Operations Assets ............................................................................................................. D-1 Space Situational Awareness Assets ............................................................................................... D-1 SSA Functions .................................................................................................................................. D-2 SSA Products and Services .............................................................................................................. D-2 Space Catalog ................................................................................................................................. D-2 Conjunction Assessment (CA) Services ........................................................................................... D-4 Data
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