Greater Downtown Miami Mid-Year Residential Market Study Update August 2018 Prepared for the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) By Integra Realty Resources (IRR) Greater Downtown Miami Mid-Year Residential Market Study Update Prepared for the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) by Integra Realty Resources (IRR) August 2018 For more information, please contact IRR-Miami/Palm Beach The Dadeland Centre 9155 S Dadeland Blvd, Suite 1208 Miami, FL 33156 305-670-0001 [email protected] Contents 2 Introduction 4 Greater Downtown Miami Market Submarket Map 5 What’s Changed Since Year-End 2017? 10 Submarket Analysis 12 Resale Condominium Pricing 15 Rental Market Statistics 18 Conventional Apartment Rents 20 Conventional Rental Market Supply 23 Condo Development Process Appendix Introduction Integra Realty Resources – Miami/Palm Beach (IRR-Miami) is pleased to present the following Residential Real Estate Market Study within the Miami Downtown Development Authority’s (Miami DDA) market area, defined as the Greater Downtown Miami market. This report updates IRR-Miami’s findings on the local residential real estate market through July 1, 2018. Key findings from this mid-year study are as follows: • While everyone wants to see a continued “economic extension” prompted by tax cuts, strong wage growth, and overall positive economic news, Greater Downtown Miami’s new construction market continues to wind down the under-construction inventory of condominiums. The final push of condominium deliveries in Greater Downtown will happen towards the end of 2018, namely in Edgewater and the Arts & Entertainment District. • Condominium rents and velocity year over year experienced normalized increases of 2 to 3 percent on all but the 3-bedroom product. • The continuing story of condo pricing declines is now set squarely in the resale condominium market. While average resale pricing declined again, and may even decline a bit further, the average pricing is quickly nearing the replacement cost threshold. • Newer resales will not retreat as quickly because the sellers are new buyers with a higher average cost basis. As a result, new project sales will be slower overall in the coming 12 to 18 months. This does not portend economic doom despite the market naysayers. • The market champions who believe money will continue to flow into new condo developments against a wall of resale inventory can only credibly make that argument if the development offers something that’s not available in the resale market. • Average rental rates downtown rebounded from a down-year in 2017. This “rent wobble” was largely due to project deliveries in 2017 which needed to stabilize, and the market rents in 2017 reflected increased pre-leasing activity and higher vacancy as projects competed with one another. 2 | Integra Realty Resources Introduction • The “rent wobble” of early 2017 could reasonably be expected to occur again in early 2019 following the pending conventional multi-family deliveries expected at the end of 2018. Year-over-Year rents retreated -1.8% - 3.9% on a price per SF basis for one and two bedroom units. Studio units were the stand-out winner in 2018 with 16% average rent growth, and new projects coming to market with smaller average unit sizes and lower overall “chunk rents” may find similar success. • While market-makers are plotting how to time the market, the largest fundamental decision is your own view on the length of continued economic expansion. How long can it last? How deep will be the retreat? • The Integra mid-year 2018 report reflects the sum of all hopes (bulls) and fears (bears) in the market. There are many on both sides. No matter whether you are a bull or a bear, the condominium development market is standing on solid ground as of midyear 2018. Respectfully, Integra Realty Resources (IRR) – Miami/Palm Beach Anthony M. Graziano, MAI, CRE, FRICS Senior Managing Director Dan Bowen Market Research Analyst 3 | Integra Realty Resources Greater Downtown Miami Market Submarket Map The map opposite illustrates the boundaries of the Miami DDA, as well as each submarket within the Miami DDA market. 4 | Integra Realty Resources What’s Changed Since Year-End 2017? he headline change is the market since Q4-2017 was the completion of 1,145 units at SLS Lux, TAria on the Bay, and Hyde Midtown. This drops the total number of units remaining under construction downtown at 3,849, down from nearly 5,000 units at YE 2017. The development pipeline in Brickell has largely closed out and the last project under construction, Brickell Flatiron, is reportedly experiencing high sales volume. In Edgewater, most of the product under construction, largely comprised of The Related Group’s Paraiso District projects, is pre-sold and slated for delivery in the second half of 2018. This year will also mark the substantial close out of the Arts & Entertainment District when Canvas delivers, further diminishing the construction pipeline across Greater Downtown (Figure 1b). Some developers are reading the tea leaves and trying to be the first project “back” in a submarket when value trends turn upward. In Brickell, Una started taking reservations, while Smart Brickell launched directly into contracts. Okan Tower and YotelPad opened sales offices at their respective sites in the CBD making the submarket one to watch in 2019 (Figure 1a). 5 | Integra Realty Resources What’s Changed Since Year-End 2017? Figure 1a Greater Downtown Miami Current Growth – Contracts and Reservations Submarket Building Avg. SF Units Status Brickell Una 2,478 135 Reservations CBD YotelPad 563 215 Reservations CBD Okan Tower (former Sterling) TBA 389 Reservations Edgewater Bentley Edgewater Condo-Hotel 905 207 Reservations Brickell One River Point 1,284 350 Contracts Brickell Smart Brickell 632 100 Contracts # in Contracts 350 # in Reservations 596 Figure 1b Greater Downtown Miami Current Growth – Under Construction and Q2 Completions Submarket Building Avg. SF Units Status A & E Canvas 892 513 Under Construction A & E 1000 Museum 5,389 83 Under Construction Brickell Flatiron 1,334 549 Under Construction CBD Paramount Miami 1,793 512 Under Construction CBD Aston Martin Residences 2,000 390 Under Construction Edgewater Gran Paraiso 1,549 317 Under Construction Edgewater Paraiso Bay Tower I 1,360 360 Under Construction Edgewater One Paraiso 1,682 272 Under Construction Edgewater Paraiso Bayviews 1,044 388 Under Construction Edgewater The Edgewater 778 30 Under Construction Edgewater 26 Edgewater 645 86 Under Construction Edgewater Elysee 3,383 100 Under Construction Edgewater Missoni Baia 2,950 249 Under Construction # Under Construction 3,849 Brickell SLS Lux 1,250 450 Complete Edgewater Aria on the Bay 1,317 648 Complete Midtown Hyde Midtown 944 410 Complete # Completed Since Prior Report 1,145 1,103 6 | Integra Realty Resources What’s Changed Since Year-End 2017? s this report was heading to press, Swire announced it was moving forward with plans for two A large Brickell City Centre expansion sites near the river, and whispers of larger plans in Wynwood began to emerge. If there is a theme in the first half of 2018, it is that there are two camps of professionals in the market firmly staked out in their thumbs up or thumbs down position. For lack of a better term, these are the market’s bulls and bears. The bears see devastation in the making as we enter a late cycle development period, one of the longest economic expansions in US history, and few indications that currency and international demand will return anytime soon. The bulls believe that Miami has reached critical launch velocity in its downtown urban lifestyle, critical mass, and residential appeal; and that continued massive liquidity in the equity and debt markets will remain long-term. The bulls believe that the new Miami developers are emerging that will build without 50% presales, and who will use primarily their own equity with strong private or public balance sheets. The bears counter this is just a sign of late cycle mechanics that makes the fall even worse. What the bears cannot deny is that the on-going predictions of the market’s demise do not account for the declining inventory of new construction being successfully delivered. What the bulls cannot deny is that even as projects close-out, many units (25%+) immediately return to the market for resale. This is having a depressing affect on the average resale value and the total resale listing inventory, which is abnormally high. What is evident in the composition of the remaining product under construction starting in 2019 is a much more highly differentiated market, with product offerings in the $350,000 range, to as high as $8 Million. Instead of shooting for a massive middle-market, the majority of the remaining pipeline will cater to ultra-luxury, or competitive alternatives for local (primarily domestic) urban dwellers who buy versus rent. 7 | Integra Realty Resources What’s Changed Since Year-End 2017? n which side do you land? Whichever you are, bull or bear, the fact is that any economic stress Othat might cause a mis-step in the new construction market will have almost no impact relative to the last downturn. By the end of 2018, the total number of units under construction will be less than 2,500 units city-wide, a pipeline that is less than 10% as large as the pipeline during the last reversal of fortune. This extended economic rebound following tax reform, coupled with high liquidity in all sectors, has mostly absorbed any massive shocks to the development pipeline. Figure 2 Current Greater Downtown Miami Condo Pipeline – Q2 2018 Submarket Complete Under Construction Contracts Reservations Proposed Totals A & E 0 596 0 0 2,291 2,887 Brickell 4,939 549 450 135 5,160 11,233 CBD 352 902 0 604 5,838 7,696 Edgewater 1,698 1,802 0 207 1,296 5,003 Midtown 410 0 0 0 0 410 Wynwood 11 0 0 0 448 459 Total (2018 Midyear) 7,410 3,849 450 946 15,033 27,688 Total (2017 Q4) 6,312 5,002 520 344 15,016 27,194 Total (2017 Midyear) 5,180 5,078 1,225 505 14,381 26,369 Figure 2 outlines this continued decline of projects imminently entering the pipeline.