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The Hungarian Labour Market, 2012 in Focus: the Evaluation Of The hungarian Labour MarkeT, 2012 in Focus: The evaLuaTion oF acTive Labour MarkeT prograMs The Hungarian Labour Market Editorial board of the yearbook series Károly Fazekas – general director, MTA krtk • Jenő Koltay – senior research fellow, MTA krtk • János Köllő – scientific advi- sor, MTA krtk • Judit Lakatos – senior advisor, Hungarian Cen- tral Statistical Office(HCSO) • György Lázár – advisor, National Employment Service (PES) • Gyula Nagy – associate professor, De- partment of Human Resources, Corvinus University of Budapest Series editor Károly Fazekas THE HUNGARIAN LABOUR MARKET 2012 IN FOCUS: THE EVALUATION OF ACTIVE LABOUR MARKET PROGRAMS EDITORS KÁROLY FAZEKAS GÁBOR KÉZDI research cenTre For econoMic and regionaL Studies, hungarian acadeMy oF sciences & naTionaL EmpLoyMenT non-proFiT pubLic coMpany LTd. budapesT, 2012 The publication of this volume has been financially supported by the National Employment Non-profit Public Company Ltd. Copies of the book can be ordered from the Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Mailing address: H-1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45. Phone: (+36-1) 309 26 49 Fax: (+36-1) 319 31 36 E-mail: [email protected] Web site: http://www.krtk.mta.hu Edition and production: Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences & National Employment Non- profit Public Company Ltd. Translated by: Ágota Scharle, Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, Bálint Szőke, Ágnes Turnpenny, Gábor Kézdi, András Gombos Revised by: Anna Lovász, Stuart Oldham, Anna Patkós Copyright © Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hun- garian Academy of Sciences & National Employment Non-profit Public Company Ltd., 2012 Cover photo © Choi Jae Ho, 2012 ISSN 1586-460X Publisher: Károly Fazekas Copy editor: Anna Patkós Design, page layout: font.hu Typography: Garamond, Franklin Gothic Printing: Oliton Kft. CONTENTS Foreword by the Editors ........................................................................................... 9 The Hungarian labour market in 2010–2011(Zsombor Cseres-Gergely & Bálint Szőke) .................................................................................................... 15 The economic environment and employment ................................................ 17 Labour demand .................................................................................................... 25 Labour supply ....................................................................................................... 32 Unemployment ..................................................................................................... 35 References .............................................................................................................. 38 In Focus. Evaluation of active labour market programs .................................. 39 Introduction (Gábor Kézdi) ............................................................................... 41 1. Methods for assessing the impact of active labor market programs (Gábor Kézdi) .................................................................................................... 49 2. International evidence on the impact of active labor market programs (Péter Hudomiet & Gábor Kézdi) ................................................................. 65 3. Greasing the wheels of the labour market? (Zsombor Cseres-Gergely) ... 82 4. The evaluation of training, wage subsidy and public works programs in Hungary (Judit Csoba & Zita Éva Nagy) .............................................. 96 5. The impact of the expansion of public works programs on long-term unemployment (János Köllő & Ágota Scharle) ........................................ 123 6. The implementation of a complex labour market program and its local effects in the South-Transdanubian region (Gergely Kabai & Nándor Németh) ....................................................................................... 138 7. Evaluating the impact of Hungarian labour market policies (Zsombor Cseres-Gergely & Ágota Scharle) ............................................... 160 8. References ....................................................................................................... 173 The institutional environment of the labour market between September 2010 and September 2011 (Irén Busch & Zsombor Cseres-Gergely) ....... 179 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 181 Components of labour market and labour market related policies ........ 184 Labour market policy measures ..................................................................... 186 Labour market related policy measures ........................................................ 202 References ........................................................................................................... 219 5 Statistical data ....................................................................................................... 223 1. Basic economic indicators ........................................................................... 225 2. Population ...................................................................................................... 227 3. Economic activity ......................................................................................... 230 4. Employment ................................................................................................... 238 5. Unemployment .............................................................................................. 249 6. Wages .............................................................................................................. 266 7. Education ........................................................................................................ 273 8. Labour demand indicators ......................................................................... 277 9. Regional inequalities .................................................................................... 279 10. Industrial relations ..................................................................................... 289 11. Welfare provisions ....................................................................................... 292 12. Labour market policies .............................................................................. 298 13. International comparison .......................................................................... 310 Description of main data sources ................................................................... 312 Index of tables and figures.................................................................................... 317 6 Authors Mónika Bálint – mta krtk Irén Busch – National Employment Service Zsombor Cseres-Gergely – mta krtk; Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis Judit Csoba – University of Debrecen Károly Fazekas – mta krtk Péter Hudomiet – University of Michigan Gergely Kabai – Pannon Policy Analysis Gábor Kézdi – mta krtk; CEU János Köllő – mta krtk Judit Lakatos – CSO Zita Éva Nagy – University of Debrecen Nándor Németh – Pannon Policy Analysis Ágota Scharle – Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis Bálint Szőke – Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna FOREWORD BY THE EDITORS The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks series was launched in 2000 with the support of the National Employment Foundation (OFA). The yearbook presents the main characteristics of Hungarian employment policy and features an in- depth analysis of a topical issue each year. The editorial board has striven from the beginning to provide up-to-date results of labour market research and use- ful information on the Hungarian labour market tendencies as well as the leg- islative and institutional background of the employment policy for the GO and NGO organizations of the public employment services, the local governments, the public administration, educational and research organisations and – last but not least – for both the press and the electronic media. This year we have also created a clearly structured and easily accessible volume that presents the main characteristics and trends of the Hungarian labour market on the basis of avail- able statistics, theoretical research and empirical analysis. Continuing our previ- ous editorial practice, we selected an area that we consider especially important for the effectiveness of Hungarian employment policy: the impact evaluation of active labour market policies. Its characteristics and results are discussed in de- tailed in the section In Focus. The book has four main sections The Hungarian labour market in 2010–2011 After the economic recession in Hungary brought about by the crisis, the period between September 2010 and September 2011 was planned to be a year of recov- ery – although this was not successful in the light of recent data. Stagnation in domestic demand meant that the only driving force of the economy was export, which failed to improve the employment situation significantly. There were no positive shocks in the economy during this period, the only important effect on the labour market were export demand and public works. However, the decline of the employment rate of 15–64 year olds was not a break in a previous growing trend. Hungary ranked among the worst performing coun- tries in regional comparisons of GDP-growth and employment rates, and neither did this situation change in the current period – employment seems to have sta- bilised at a low level (55.4%), characteristic
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