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Download Working Paper CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP The implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System: the tropical savanna woodlands and grasslands Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #13B Adam C Liedloff, Richard J Williams, David W Hilbert, Simon Ferrier, Michael Dunlop, Tom Harwood, Kristen J Williams and Cameron S Fletcher September 2012 National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: The implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System: the tropical savanna woodlands and grasslands / Adam C Liedloff ISBN: 978-1-4863-0214-7 (pdf) Series: CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship working paper series; 13B. Other Climate Adaptation Flagship, Richard J Williams, David W Hilbert, Authors/Contributors: Simon Ferrier, Michael Dunlop, Tom Harwood, Kristen J Williams and Cameron S Fletcher Enquiries Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Adam C Liedloff CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Darwin, NT 564 Vanderlin Drive Berrimah NT 0828 [email protected] Enquiries about the Climate Adaptation Flagship or the Working Paper series should be addressed to: Working Paper Coordinator CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship [email protected] Citation Liedloff AC, Williams RJ, Hilbert DW, Ferrier S, Dunlop M, Harwood T, Williams KJ and Fletcher CS (2012). The implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System: the tropical savanna woodlands and grasslands. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 13B. www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers Copyright and disclaimer © 2012 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. The Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper series The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship has been created to address the urgent national challenge of enabling Australia to adapt more effectively to the impacts of climate change and variability. This working paper series aims to: • provide a quick and simple avenue to disseminate high-quality original research, based on work in progress • generate discussion by distributing work for comment prior to formal publication. The series is open to researchers working with the Climate Adaptation Flagship on any topic relevant to the Flagship’s goals and scope. Copies of Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Papers can be downloaded at: www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers CSIRO initiated the National Research Flagships to provide science-based solutions in response to Australia’s major research challenges and opportunities. The ten Flagships form multidisciplinary teams with industry and the research community to deliver impact and benefits for Australia. Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................... vi Executive summary........................................................................................................................................... vii 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Aims, background and context ................................................................................................... 1 2 Biome characteristics and ecosystem drivers ....................................................................................... 3 2.1 Geographical distribution and vegetation .................................................................................. 3 2.2 Biogeography, biodiversity and conservation significance ......................................................... 4 2.3 People ......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.4 Key ecosystem drivers ................................................................................................................ 5 3 Predicting the effects of climate change in the savannas ..................................................................... 7 3.1 Expert workshop ......................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Modelling environmental stress ................................................................................................. 8 4 How will climates and environments change in the savanna biome? .................................................. 9 4.1 Evidence of historic and current climate change........................................................................ 9 4.2 Climate change predictions ........................................................................................................ 9 4.3 Important climate factors ......................................................................................................... 10 4.4 How much will change? ............................................................................................................ 11 4.5 Species compositional turnover by selected taxon groups ...................................................... 14 4.6 Plant species compositional turnover – a case study on the buffering effects of environmental heterogeneity at continental, regional and local scales ............................................. 19 4.7 Savanna biodiversity hot spot case studies .............................................................................. 25 5 Other factors influencing environmental change ............................................................................... 30 5.1 Fire ............................................................................................................................................ 30 5.2 Weeds and feral animals........................................................................................................... 30 5.3 Intensification ........................................................................................................................... 30 5.4 Extreme weather (heat days, cyclones) .................................................................................... 31 5.5 Increased CO2 concentration .................................................................................................... 31 5.6 Other factors not currently predicted ...................................................................................... 31 6 Management implications .................................................................................................................. 32 7 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 34 References ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 Appendix A Expert workshop discussion summary ..................................................................................... 41 Appendix B Description of modelling performed ........................................................................................ 50 Appendix C The savanna biome ................................................................................................................... 54 Appendix D Environmental stress for major vegetation groups .................................................................. 55 Appendix E Compositional change for plants .............................................................................................. 56 Appendix F Compositional change for snails ............................................................................................... 57 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 13B • September 2012 | i Appendix G Compositional change for reptiles............................................................................................ 58 Appendix H Compositional change for mammals ........................................................................................ 59 Appendix I Compositional change for frogs ................................................................................................ 60 Appendix J Compositional change for birds ................................................................................................ 61 Appendix K Mean expected compositional change..................................................................................... 62 Appendix L Environmental stress for each biota in the NRS ......................................................................
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