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NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS T O F C E N O M M T M R E A R P C E E D JUNE 2006 U N A I C T I E R D E M ST A AT E S OF HISTORICAL POPULATION STRUCTURE OF COHO SALMON IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS EVOLUTIONARILY SIGNIFICANT UNIT Thomas H. Williams Eric P. Bjorkstedt Walt G. Duffy Dave Hillemeier George Kautsky Tom E. Lisle Mike McCain Mike Rode R. Glenn Szerlong Robert S. Schick Matthew N. Goslin Aditya Agrawal NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-390 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), organized in 1970, has evolved into an agency which establishes national policies and manages and conserves our oceanic, coastal, and atmospheric resources. An organizational element within NOAA, the Office of Fisheries is responsible for fisheries policy and the direction of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). In addition to its formal publications, the NMFS uses the NOAA Technical Memorandum series to issue informal scientific and technical publications when complete formal review and editorial processing are not appropriate or feasible. Documents within this series, however, reflect sound professional work and may be referenced in the formal scientific and technical literature. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS ATMOSPH ND E This TM series is used for documentation and timely communication of preliminary results, interim reports, or special A RI C C I A N D purpose information. The TMs have not received complete formal review, editorial control, or detailed editing. A E M I C N O I S L T A R N A T O I I O T A N N U . E S C . R D E EP M AR OM TMENT OF C JUNE 2006 HISTORICAL POPULATION STRUCTURE OF COHO SALMON IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS EVOLUTIONARILY SIGNIFICANT UNIT Thomas H. Williams11, Eric P. Bjorkstedt , Walt G. Duffy2, Dave Hillemeier3, George Kautsky45, Tom E. Lisle , Mike McCain6, Mike Rode7, R. Glenn Szerlong11, Robert S. Schick , Matthew N. Goslin1, and Aditya Agrawal1 1 Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, California 95060 2USGS, California Cooperative Fish Research Unit, Humboldt State University 3Yurok Tribe, Klamath, California 4Hoopa Valley Tribe, Hoopa, California 5USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Arcata, California 6USDA Forest Service, Smith River National Recreation Area, Gasquet, California 7Department of Fish and Game, Northern California-North Coast Region, Mount Shasta, California NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-390 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration VADM Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Undersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Marine Fisheries Service William T. Hogarth, Assistant Administrator for Fisheries Preface The main purpose of technical recovery planning for Pacific salmon and steelhead is to produce biologically based viability criteria for listed Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) that will be considered in setting recovery goals. These viability criteria, and the analyses from which they stem, must refer to specific populations and population groups (i.e., populations or groups of populations within a ESU). The purpose of this report is to describe the historical population structure of coho salmon in the Southern Oregon/Northern California Coast (SONCC) ESU in order to guide viability analyses, and to provide a historical context for other parties interested in recovering coho salmon in the geographic region. We collected and examined available information relevant to the question of population structure of coho salmon in the SONCC ESU, and we present that information here. Readers interested in the conclusions can refer to the abstract, Table 1, and Figure 9. i Table of Contents Preface .........................................................................................................................................i List of Figures............................................................................................................................iii List of Tables.............................................................................................................................iv List of Plates...............................................................................................................................v Abstract......................................................................................................................................vi Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................viii 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 1.1. Background.................................................................................................................1 1.2. The Geographic Setting and General Ecology of SONCC Coho Salmon..................3 2. Conceptual Approach for Identifying Historical Populations........................................5 2.1. Evaluation of Historical Population Structure Within an ESU ..................................5 2.1.1. Definition of a Population ......................................................................................6 2.1.2. Rules for Identifying Populations: Concepts and Application...............................7 2.1.3. A Model for Evaluating the Population Structure of an ESU ................................7 3. Methods and Results.....................................................................................................12 3.1.1. Identifying the Historical Distribution of Populations .........................................12 3.1.2. Geographical Isolation..........................................................................................14 3.1.3. Biological Characteristics.....................................................................................15 3.1.4. Environmental and Ecological Diversity..............................................................18 3.2. Methods for Population Identification and Classification........................................23 3.2.1. Population Identification Method.........................................................................24 3.2.2. Population Identification Results.........................................................................25 3.3. Population Classification..........................................................................................31 3.3.1. Population Classification Methods.......................................................................32 3.3.2. Population Classification Results.........................................................................35 4. Discussion.....................................................................................................................42 4.1. Uncertainty ...............................................................................................................43 4.2. Diversity Strata.........................................................................................................44 5. References ....................................................................................................................48 6. Appendices ...................................................................................................................53 6.1. Appendix A - Intrinsic Potential...............................................................................53 6.2. Appendix B - Environmental data............................................................................58 ii List of Figures 1. The Southern Oregon/Northern California Coho Salmon ESU. ........................................ 2 2. Schematic of population types as a function of viability-in-isolation and self-recruitment................................................................................................................. 9 3. Plot of first three principal components, based on environmental variables, showing the position of selected watersheds. ....................................................................................... 20 4. Plot of first three principal components, based on environmental variables, showing the position of selected watersheds (rotated perspective of Figure 3). .................................. 21 5. Dendrogram based on weighted pair-group method, arithmetic average (WPGMA) of Euclidian distances applied to scaled and centered environmental data for watersheds in the Southern Oregon/Northern California Coho Salmon ESU......................................... 22 6. Calculation of integrated intrinsic potential (IP) from reach specific IP values ............... 34 7. Structure of SONCC Coho Salmon ESU based on predictions of viability-in-isolation analysis based on predictions from the IP model. ............................................................ 36 8. Historical population structure of coho salmon in the SONCC Coho Salmon ESU.......... 40 9. Arrangement of historical populations of the Southern Oregon/Northern California Coho Salmon ESU into diversity strata. .................................................................................... 46 iii List of Tables 1. Independent and dependent populations of coho salmon in the Southern Oregon/Northern California Coho Salmon ESU ........................................................................................
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