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Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 Page 2 ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 37 Regulator 're-gyu,ley-tu(r): A body appointed by government to regulate one or several markets so as to ensure their integrity ‘pr ō-shâr’ : a bridge that integrates finance, communication, marketing and securities law compliance to enable the most intelligent and cost-effective two-way communication between a company, the financial community, and other constituencies to affirm their integrity. The Monthly NCM Report for May ‘10 Issued on June 02, 2010 Contents Executive Summary 3 Introduction 6 All-Share Index Movement 9 Market Dynamics 10 Comparison of 2009 and 2010 Market Performance 11 Sectoral Index Movements 12 NSE -30 Index, NSE -Food Index, NSE -Banking Index, NSE -Insurance Index & NSE -Oil Index Sectoral Analysis 17 Transactions Volume and Value Trend 17 Top Ten Trades in the Month 18 Top Ten Traded Sectors in the Month 19 Top Ten Gainers in the Month 20 Top Ten Year to Date Appreciation 20 Top Ten Decliners in the Month 21 Top Ten Year to Date Depreciation 21 Supplementary Listing in the Month 22 Forecast Results in the Month 22 Corporate Declarations in the Month 23 Dividends Declared 32 Sectoral Analysis 33 Outlook/ Analyst Opinion 39 Time Lines (April Market News/Information) 40 The Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 www.proshareng.com Page 2 The Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 37 Executive Summary “Market performance in the month reflected weak economic fundamentals as ASI posts 2.44% decline. Just as in February, at the height of the political uncertainty, the equities market has gone south – hopefully temporarily” In a month in which the market was expected to consolidate its recovery – significant drop in the inter-bank rates as a result of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) release of around N415.16bn and Treasury Bill (TB) maturity of about N35bn that hit the system ( source: FSDH ); the Nigerian equities market performance posted a negative performance of -2.44% to close at 26,183.21 compared with marginal appreciation of 0.89% recorded in the preceding month. This was the worst monthly performance of the year so far, coming immediately after the month of April – trending out and deflating enthusiasm for the steady and robust recovery ‘baby-steps’ forecasted for the second quarter as investors’ activities swerved. ASI: FIVE MONTHS COMPARABLE PERIODS CHARTS Recall that the month opened with a spill over of the positive trend of the last two trading days of the previous month (April); which could not be sustained - The positive outlook only lasted four trading days after which the bears took the centre stage and remained in charge for most of the remaining trading days of the month till Thursday and Friday, when the bulls dominated the equities market again – the same cycle as for April month end. The Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 www.proshareng.com Page 3 Notwithstanding the overriding bearish trend recorded in the month under review and the marginal appreciations of 1.73% and 0.89% for the months of February and April respectively, the All-Share Index still closed on a positive note with +25.65% YTD appreciations. The month of March stands out as the best performing month in the year - but for the buoyant growth recorded in the month, the year to date outlook would have waned much more considerably. There was noticeable volatility in the entire market with most of the activities riding on speculative note; these showed evidence of lack of commitment/conviction from investors. Majority of buyers on the floor seemed to have adopted a ‘survivalist mindset’ - buy and sell within a short period of time. This scenario did not even spare the blue chip stocks which used to lift market indices and create robust outlook in the market, as the NSE-30 which measures blue chip performance recorded very insignificant appreciation in the month under review. Unexpectedly, the influx of returns in form of dividends and bonuses could not really lift the gloom and stimulate a rally in spite of the fact that about sixteen quoted companies rewarded investors with dividends while three doled out bonus in the period under review. While some stocks got expected response from investors, some others notwithstanding the returns declared had their prices continued to lag. The negative performance recorded in the month under review could be attributed to a number of factors, some of which include: The uncertainties that surrounds the nations’ economic fundamentals and state of finances (especially in an election year); The consequential ‘dumping’ of shares by the investors, reflecting operating environment issues and systemic impact; The improved returns on the money market which created swerving of funds from the capital market in anticipation of safer and better yields. The impact-assessment of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) insight/ pronouncements on the risk involved in using bank shares as collateral for margin loans – for which most operators are hugely exposed; Portfolio restructuring by some investors; Poor corporate declarations by some quoted companies; and The non-release of the common year end results in the banking sector, increasing concerns about the going-concern status of these banks. We are adopting a cautionary stance in the month of June 2010, as the operating environment does not seem to reflect or is just about factoring in the lack of inflows that matches the positive results declared to date. It is however anticipated that in the coming weeks, with the maturing T/bills, some level of relative liquidity can be achieved in the financial system causing inter-bank rates to drop further or at least remain low to create an attraction and wherewithal to pick up some stocks whose prices had declined relative to their fair prices (see report). The strong resolve by the regulatory authorities to entrench more discipline, limited transparency and increased compliance by the operators in the market, may prove discomforting and strain the adjustment capabilities of most players, given that we now have a higher rate of change from the outside than within most systems – a situation that truly tasks management capabilities and may be the reason for the sometimes irrational responses to some of the policy changes. The Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 www.proshareng.com Page 4 It is noteworthy though that the system is approaching a period of burn-out and the regulators must now make the decision on the following: 1. How much more uncertainty and change can the system take? 2. Where does regulation stop and over-regulation begin? 3. When does the use of incentives and rewards, rather than sanctions become an acceptable approach to institutionalise the changes that have taken place? This report allows you to appreciate the market in a more personal way; and empower you to engage it and attempt answering these questions in a much more intelligent manner. We thank you for reading the report and do encourage you to take out time and share your thoughts with us on market, your investment and your needs. Feel free to e-mail our analyst at [email protected] We value your feedback and comments. For additional References NSE Activity Report - May 2010 - http://www.proshareng.com/reports/view.php?id=2696 State of the Market Reports - http://www.proshareng.com/state.php The Monthly NCM Report for May 2010 www.proshareng.com Page 5 Introduction “Notwithstanding the bearish trend recorded in the month and the marginal appreciation of the preceding month, activities on the floor of the NSE continue to suggest that the indicators of a positive trend still remain. The level of transactions on the NSE remains on the sustained uptrend on the monthly basis. ” Equities market in the month of May commenced on a positive note with the upbeat of the last two trading days of the month of April extending into the month, to last only for the first four trading days after which the bears took the centre stage and held sway for most of the trading days of the month till the last two days before the May 31, 2010 public holiday. The first trading week of the month recorded the highest appreciation of 3.97% to close at 27,503.37 , followed by a marginal appreciation by +0.91% in the following week to close at 27,753.13. The remaining two trading weeks recorded depreciations of higher magnitudes which closed at -3.49 % and -2.25% for the third and fourth week respectively. The transaction trend in the month showed a decline in the investors’ commitment to the capital market, and this was noticed to have commenced in the month of April where the impact of bears was evident as the month consequently closed with marginal appreciations. The cyclical month start and close patterns indicate an adjustment of sorts. A cursory review of the NSE sectoral indexes revealed that the financial stocks contributed more to the negative outlook recorded in the month, followed by the depletion suffered by many of the blue chips stocks in the third and fourth weeks respectively. The declines recorded in the first and third weeks in the Petroleum Marketing sector was overridden by the positive outlook of the remaining two weeks of the month. The Petroleum sector Index depreciated by 4.54% in the first week and by 2.20% in the third week. However, there was impressive growth of 7.23% in second week and further appreciation by 1.39% in the fourth week. Food and Beverages eventually recorded the highest appreciation in the month followed by Petroleum Marketing sector.
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