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An Analysis of the 2003 and 2007 Electoral Violence in Nigeria

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2003 AND 2007 ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA By NYAM AONDOWASE Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree: Doctor Philosophiae (DPhil) Political Sciences, in the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Humanities, University of Pretoria, South Africa 2015 Supervisor: Prof. Katabaro Miti ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to the Almighty God for the grace to carry out this work and for all the wonderful things He has done in my life. My unrelenting source of inspiration, enticement over the years has been my dearest mother Mary Shizungwe Nyam who contributed to this effort despite my initial challenges. She applied her time taking care of my children, her grandchildren, in my absence. To my sons Sesughter and Terdoo, who missed me these years and were praying for me, I thank you and may God Almighty provide to you the wisdom to accomplish beyond this level. I am indebted to everyone who assisted and supported me during the course of my studies. It is unfortunate I cannot mention numerous individuals and groups whose cooperation enabled me to attain this feat. Those who are inevitably omitted should not in any way think their contributions have been overlooked. Without the guidance of my supervisor, Professor Katabaro Miti, this thesis could not have been completed. His invaluable guidance and meticulous attention to this piece of work is highly acknowledged and appreciated. My profound gratitude goes to Senator Dr. G.O. Akume and his wife, Mrs Regina Mbavekomtor Akume (JP), for their immense financial and moral support. It would have been difficult for me to complete the programme without them. I have benefited greatly from the moral and financial assistances from people too numerous to mention due to space: Professors Daniel Goon, John Terhile Agee, and A.L. Toriola, who in various ways assisted me during my stay in South Africa. Others are Sabastine Tar Hon (SAN), Dr. Tivlumun Nyitse, Prof. Saint Gbilekaa, Hon. Orker Jev, Mr/Mrs Terngu Tsavnum, Jack Mulya, Engr. Terkura Wuam, Hon. Donald Gboughol, Dennis Andwer, Kwaghkule Swem, Agaba Nder, Mde Allah and Monica Gundu. I am especially grateful to my colleagues at the Office of the Head of Service, Benue State for their moral support during the course of my study. In particular, I would like to thank Mrs Helen Angweh, Clement Tondo, Andrew Amee, Ikyo Halem and Daisy Doom Ugoh. The support from Angula ZO and Juliana Kpadoo Yarkwan is also appreciated. i The Research Commons (University of Pretoria Post Graduate Study Centre) has been a source of friendship and a great place to research. I received support from Margaux Mouton, Sunette Steynberg and my co-research friends Dr. Richard Obinna Iroanya, Zafanias Matsimbe, and Edwinah Amondi. Finally, my late wife, Mrs Evelyn Wandoo Nyam, whom I shared this noble course with, but who could not live to witness the end. Evelyn, I almost gave up after your demise. I must confess your loving, caring and words of encouragement and support prior to my departure to South Africa held me on. You lived and shall always be remembered in my heart. While it takes a little faith and patience to wait, it is also important to emphasise, God is never late to answer a genuine prayer in any human endeavour. ii DEDICATION In loving memory of my wife, Mrs Evelyn Wandoo Nyam, who passed on shortly after enrolling for the PhD programme. iii ABBREVIATIONS ABN Association for Better Nigeria ACC Arewa Consultative Council AD Alliance for Democrats ADC Aide De Camp AEVD African Election Database AFENIFERE Pan Yoruba Movement AFRC Armed Forces Ruling Council AG Action Group AMS Additional Member System ANPP All Nigerian Peoples Party APP ALL People‘s Party AU African Union BDPP Benin Delta People‘s Party CD Campaign for Democracy CF Carter Foundation CIPs Complaints Investigation Panels CJ Chief Justice CNC Congress National Consensus CORE Cost of Registration and Elections CRB Complaints Review Board CS Catholic Secretariat CS Commonwealth Secretariat CUD Unity and Democratic Movement CVR Continuous Voter Registration DAP Democratic Advanced Party DDCM Direct Data Capture Machine DFID United Department for International Development iv EC Zimbabwe Electoral Commission ECK Electoral Commission of Kenya ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EFCC Economic and Financial Crimes Commission EISA Electoral Institute of South Africa EIU Economic Intelligent Unit EMB Electoral Management Body EPRDF Ethiopian People‘s Revolutionary Democratic Front ERC Electoral Reform Committee EUEOM European Union Election Observer Mission EVS Electronic Voting System FCA Federal Appeal Court FCT Federal Capital Territory FEDECO Federal Electoral Commission of Nigeria FRN Federal Government of Nigeria GDM Grassroots Democratic Movement GNC Grand National Conference GNPP Great Nigerian Peoples Party GNU Government of National Unity GR Global Rights HOR House of Representatives HRW Human Rights Watch ICA Igbo Consultative Assembly ICG International Crisis Group IDASA Institute for Democracy in South Africa IDEA International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IFES International Foundation for Electoral Systems IMF International Monetary Fund INEC Independent National Electoral Commission v ING Interim National Government IPA Inter-party Parliamentary Agreement IPP Idea People‘s Party IRI International Republican Institute ISS Institute for Security Studies ITT International Telegraph and Telephone JOC Joint Operation Command KPP Kano Peoples Party LC Liberal Convention LGCC Local Government Collation Canter LP Labour Party MAD Movement for the Advancement of Democracy MDC Movement for Democratic Change MDF Mid-West Democratic Front MDSJ Movement for Democratic and Social Justice MOSOP Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People MSM National Solidarity Movement NADECO National Democratic Coalition NAP Nigerian Advance Party NARECOM National Reconciliation Committee NCNC National council of Nigerians and the Cameroons NCPN National Conscience Party of Nigeria NDC Niger Delta Congress NDF Mid-west Democratic Front NDI National Democratic Institute NEBE National Election Body of Ethiopia NECOM National Electoral Commission NECs National Electoral Commissioners NEPAD New Partnership for African Development NEPU Northern Element Progressive Union vi NGOs Non-governmental organizations NLP Nigeria Labour Party NNA Nigerian National Alliance NNC Nigerian National Congress NNDP Nigerian National Democratic Party NPC Northern People‘s Congress NPN National Party of Nigeria NPP Nigerian Peoples Party NPWP Nigerian People‘s Welfare Party NPF Nigerian Police Force NRC National Republican Convention NUP National Unity Party NYM Nigerian Youth Movement NYSC National Youth Service Corps OAU Organisation of African Unity OBS Open Ballot System OMR Optical Mark Recognition PDC Power Devolution Committee PDP People‘s Democratic Party PFN People‘s Front of Nigeria PNP Patriotic Nigerian Party PNU Party of National Unity PPP People‘s Patriotic Party PRP Peoples Redemption Party PSP People‘s Solidarity Party PVC Permanent Voter‘s Card RPN Republican Party of Nigeria RPT Rally for Togolese Party SADC South African Development Community SCC State Collation Centre vii SCR Smart Card Reader SDP Social Democratic Party SECs State Electoral Commissions. SMC Supreme Military Council SNC Sovereign National Conference TIC Transition Implementation Committee TMG Transitional Monitoring Group TTA Third Term Agenda TUG Transitional Unity Government TVC Temporary Voter‘s Card UAC United African Company UDP United Democratic Party UEDF United Ethiopia Democratic Front UK United Kingdom UMBC United Middle-Belt Congress UN United Nations UNCP United Nigeria Congress Party UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNDP United Nigeria Democratic Party UNIP United National Independence Party UPGA United Progressive Grand Alliance UPN Unity Party of Nigeria UPP United People‘s Party US United States WCC Ward Collation Centre WFB World Fact Book WWII Second World War ZANU PF Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front viii ABSTRACT The primary objective of this study is to analyse electoral violence in Nigeria using the Hoglund analytical framework on electoral violence. More specifically, the study undertakes to analyse incidents of electoral violence in the 2003 and 2007 elections in Nigeria. The second objective of the study is to identify how the changing nature of politics, elections, and electoral institutions have interacted to perpetuate electoral violence in the 2003 and 2007 elections; identify the nature, spread and pattern of electoral violence in those elections with the aim of explaining the variations and concentration of such violence; and to identify the extent to which Hoglund‘s analytical framework can explain the causes of electoral violence in Nigeria. Electoral violence is defined as an act that seeks to determine, delay, or influence an electoral process through threats, verbal intimidation, hate speech, disinformation, physical assault, forced ‗protection‘, blackmail, destruction of property, and/or assassination. Information for the study was gathered through existing publically available documents on elections (including electoral acts), as well as reports on elections by both local and foreign observer missions, to analyse the 2003 and 2007 electoral violence in Nigeria. The link between electoral violence and Nigeria‘s 2003 and 2007 elections is analysed based
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